Flying under the radar?: A synthetic control study on the Norwegian aviation tax’s effect on international departing passengers from Oslo’s airport.
2026 (English)Independent thesis Basic level (degree of Bachelor), 10 credits / 15 HE credits
Student thesis
Abstract [en]
In 2016, Norway implemented an air passenger tax, the Flypassasjeravgift, as part of a national budget agreement. This thesis evaluates the effect of the tax on the number of international departing passengers from Oslo airport, Gardermoen. To estimate the causal effect, the synthetic control method (SCM) is applied, constructing a synthetic Oslo based on a weighted combination of comparable capital cities to approximate the evolution of departing passengers in the absence of the tax. The estimate suggests an average decrease of 76,547 passengers after the introduction of the tax, representing a 0.27% decrease. However, this estimated effect is not statistically significant, as similar or larger placebo effects are observed. Consequently, the thesis does not provide evidence that the Norwegian air travel tax reduced the number of international departing passengers departing from Gardermoen.
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2026. , p. 39
Keywords [en]
Aviation tax, Gardermoen, Synthetic control method, elasticity, passengers
National Category
Economics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-594338OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-594338DiVA, id: diva2:2087414
Subject / course
Economics
Educational program
Bachelor Programme in Political Science
Supervisors
Examiners
2026-08-252026-07-202026-08-25Bibliographically approved