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Early COVID-19 Policies and Their Enduring Impact on Unemployment: Causal Evidence Through 2024
Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.
Xiamen University, Xiamen, China.
Karolinska institutet.
University of Gävle, Faculty of Engineering and Sustainable Development, Department of Electrical Engineering, Mathematics and Science, Mathematics.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-1897-5730
2026 (English)In: Statistics and Public Policy, E-ISSN 2330-443X, Vol. 13, no 1, article id 2685207Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

In this article, we evaluate the lasting impact of the first-wave COVID-19 pandemic policies on unemployment during the post-first-wave period. Specifically, we analyze the causal effects of the Swedish first-wave policies relative to the Norwegian ones on unemployment during the first-wave period (Q2 and Q3 2020, where Q stands for quarter), the post-first-wave period (Q4 2020 and 2021-2024), and the complete period (Q2 2020 - Q4 2024). The Swedish first-wave policies led to an increase of unemployment with an estimate of 506 (95% CI: 406, 607) more unemployment per 100, 000 labor force members during the first-wave period in Sweden. However, the Swedish first-wave policies led to a reduction of unemployment with an estimate of 585 (95% CI: 485, 684) less unemployment during the post-first-wave period in Sweden. Furthermore, the Swedish first-wave policies led to a reduction of unemployment with an estimate of 471 (95% CI: 375, 567) less unemployment during the complete period in Sweden. This provides causal evidence supporting the view that mild first-wave public-health policies helped preserve supply chains and strengthen long-term economic resilience.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Taylor & Francis , 2026. Vol. 13, no 1, article id 2685207
Keywords [en]
Average treatment effect among treated, Long-term causal effect, Sequential causal effect, Sequential treatment assignment, Unemployment
National Category
Economics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:hig:diva-50719DOI: 10.1080/2330443x.2026.2685207ISI: 001814448400001Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-105044267553OAI: oai:DiVA.org:hig-50719DiVA, id: diva2:2086978
Funder
Swedish Research Council, 2019-02913Available from: 2026-07-17 Created: 2026-07-17 Last updated: 2026-07-26Bibliographically approved

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CiteExportLink to record
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Cite
Citation style
  • apa
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Language
  • de-DE
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  • nn-NB
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  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
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  • asciidoc
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