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A Study of MLE and MAPE for the Isotropic Geodesic Normal Distribution under Varying Parameter Settings
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Statistics.
2026 (English)Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (Two Years)), 20 credits / 30 HE creditsStudent thesis
Abstract [en]

Analyzing directional data on a sphere requires intrinsic statistical frameworks to respect the underlying geometry. While the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) is commonly used, its practical reliability degrades in low-concentration settings. This thesis investigates the breakdown thresholds of the MLE and evaluates the stabilizing effects of a derived maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimator for the isotropic geodesic normal distribution (GND) on the 2-sphere. A Monte Carlo simulation study is conducted across varying sample sizes and concentration levels, comparing the MLE against MAP estimators with weakly, strongly, and moderately informative priors. The results demonstrate that the MLE loses estimation reliability at low concentrations, particularly for small sample sizes. In contrast, the MAP estimator effectively mitigates this breakdown; incorporating even a weak or offset prior significantly reduces the Mean Squared Error (MSE). Asymptotic consistency is confirmed for large samples, where the influence of the prior vanishes and the estimators converge. Finally, an application to the orbital planes of the nine planets illustrates the estimators' behavior on real-world data, confirming that the MAP estimator appropriately relies on the data for estimation when the data are highly concentrated.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2026. , p. 26
Keywords [en]
Directional Statistics, Sphere, Maximum A Posteriori, Maximum Likelihood, Geodesic Normal Distribution
National Category
Probability Theory and Statistics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-594301OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-594301DiVA, id: diva2:2086606
Educational program
Master Programme in Statistics
Supervisors
Examiners
Available from: 2026-07-15 Created: 2026-07-15 Last updated: 2026-07-15Bibliographically approved

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CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

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Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
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  • asciidoc
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