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Empirical Likelihood Stacking for Remaining Useful Life Estimation
University of Skövde, School of Informatics. University of Skövde, Informatics Research Environment. (Skövde Artificial Intelligence Lab (SAIL))ORCID iD: 0009-0005-6688-9265
University of Skövde, School of Informatics. University of Skövde, Informatics Research Environment. (Skövde Artificial Intelligence Lab (SAIL))ORCID iD: 0000-0003-2973-3112
University of Skövde, School of Engineering Science. University of Skövde, Virtual Engineering Research Environment. (Processes in Intelligent Simulation, Manufacturing & Materials (PRISM))ORCID iD: 0000-0001-5436-2128
Department of Industrial and Materials Science, Chalmers University of Technology, Gothenburg, Sweden.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-4858-4386
2026 (English)In: Information Processing and Management of Uncertainty in Knowledge-Based Systems: 21st International Conference, IPMU 2026, Rome, Italy, June 15–19, 2026, Proceedings, Part I / [ed] Barbara Vantaggi; Giulianella Coletti; Thierry Denoeux; Anne Laurent; Davide Petturiti; Enrique Miranda; Jesús Medina; Bernadette Bouchon-Meunier; Ronald R. Yager, Cham: Springer, 2026, p. 303-317Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

Predictive maintenance (PdM) plays an important role in the transition toward Industry 4.0, offering the potential to increase operational efficiency and reduce unexpected downtime. A central application of PdM involves the estimation of a system component’s remaining useful life (RUL) to enable informed maintenance decisions. Deep learning (DL) models have demonstrated strong performance in RUL prediction tasks. However, these models often lack the capability to reliably quantify predictive uncertainty, which is essential for risk-aware decision-making in industrial applications. Bayesian approximation models, like Stochastic Weight Averaging Bayesian and Variational Inference, can yield a distribution of predictions while avoiding the prohibitively costly process of true Bayesian inference. This distribution can be used to reason about the uncertainty of the model, but often shows the model being overconfident. We propose empirical likelihood stacking, a method for improving uncertainty quantification for DL models. By applying stacking and deep ensembles to estimate the RUL of turbofan engines, we show the trade-offs between these two methods when applied to DL models. We find that the stacked model has a better calibrated uncertainty at a small cost to point prediction accuracy, when compared to the ensemble.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Cham: Springer, 2026. p. 303-317
Series
Communications in Computer and Information Science, ISSN 1865-0929, E-ISSN 1865-0937 ; 3019
Keywords [en]
Artificial Intelligence, Stacking, Deep Learning, Uncertainty, Remaining Useful Life
National Category
Artificial Intelligence Probability Theory and Statistics Production Engineering, Human Work Science and Ergonomics
Research subject
Skövde Artificial Intelligence Lab (SAIL); Processes in Intelligent Simulation, Manufacturing & Materials (PRISM)
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:his:diva-26821DOI: 10.1007/978-3-032-28994-0_22ISI: 001820159300022Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-105042484630ISBN: 978-3-032-28993-3 (print)ISBN: 978-3-032-28994-0 (electronic)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:his-26821DiVA, id: diva2:2083353
Conference
21st International Conference, IPMU 2026, Rome, Italy, June 15–19, 2026
Projects
Trustworthy Predictive Maintenance (TPdM)Advanced AI Architectures for Integrated and Enhanced Manufacturing Operations (AIMOps)
Funder
Vinnova, 2022-01710Vinnova, 2025-01110
Note

CC BY 4.0

jonas.karlsson@his.se

Included in the following conference series:

IPMU: International Conference on Information Processing and Management of Uncertainty in Knowledge-Based Systems

The authors would like to thank the Advanced and Innovative Digitalization Program funded by VINNOVA for their funding of the research projects TPdM-Trustworthy Predictive Maintenance (Grant No. 2022-01710) and AIMOps-Advanced AI Architectures for Integrated and Enhanced Manufacturing Operations (Grant No. 2025-01110), within which this study has been conducted.

Available from: 2026-07-01 Created: 2026-07-02 Last updated: 2026-08-31Bibliographically approved

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