This study examines the relationship between Official Development Assistance (ODA) and
democratization in aid-recipient countries during the period 2002–2020. Drawing on
institutional theory, the study contributes to the ongoing debate on whether ODA promotes,
stagnates, or undermines democratization in recipient countries. The analysis distinguishes
between total development aid, democracy-oriented aid, and the share of democracy aid
relative to total aid. Using data from the OECD Creditor Reporting System (CRS), DAC2A,
V-Dem’s Electoral Democracy Index, and World Bank Open Data, I apply a fixed-effects
regression model with three different time lags: short-
, medium-
, and long term. I find no
statistically significant relationship between total aid and democratization across all three
models. In contrast, democracy-oriented aid displays a weak but statistically significant
positive association in the short and medium term, while the share of democracy aid is
positively associated with democratization only in the short term. The results further indicate
that these effects decline over longer time periods and lose statistical significance in the long
term. However, the findings should be interpreted as correlations rather than causal
relationships. The study suggests that the structure and direction of aid may be more
important than the aggregated total volume for democratization. At the same time, the
observed effects are small, indicating that development aid alone is unlikely to generate a
larger democratic change. Therefore, the paper positions itself within the part of the research
that emphasizes the importance of separating different types of aid when analyzing
democratic effects.
2026. , p. 39
Demokratisering, utvecklingsbistånd, demokratibistånd, Official Development Assistance (ODA), V-Dem, institutionell teori, paneldataanalys, fixed effects-regression