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Life Cycle Global Warming Potential of Optimized Photovoltaic System Deployment
Dalarna University, School of Information and Engineering, Energy Systems in the Built Environment. Dalarna University, School of Information and Engineering, Energy Technology. Sustainable Energy Research Centre, Dalarna University.
2026 (English)Licentiate thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Description
Abstract [en]

Renewable energy is an important part of the mitigation of climate change. Photovoltaic systems (PVs) are the fastest growing energy source. They use energy from the sun to produce electricity, not from burning fossil fuels. However, from a life cycle perspective, PV is not an emission-free energy source because greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) are produced, mainly during the manufacturing of components such as solar modules. Generally, these emissions are negligible compared to the ones produced from fossil fuels. Therefore, it is commonly assumed that only operation emissions are relevant. This thesis explores the GHG mitigation of optimized grid-connected PV systems. The results show that, in most cases, the mitigation of GHG emissions is considerably higher than the emissions. For example, in Cyprus the life cycle GHG mitigation potential is 18.6 t CO₂-eq / kWp, which exceeds by far the GHG emissions of PV systems which are between 0.46 t CO₂-eq / kWp and 1.11 t CO₂-eq / kWp. However, exceptions (where the mitigation potential is not enough to cover the GHG embodied emissions of the PV systems) are found if relatively high carbon PV modules are simulated in Sweden, France and Norway due to the mostly decarbonized grid in those countries. For example, in Sweden the life cycle GHG mitigation potential found is 0.63 t CO₂-eq / kWp, which can be higher or lower than the life cycle emissions from a PV system, depending mostly on the manufacturing conditions.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Borlänge: Dalarna University, 2026.
Series
Dalarna Licentiate Theses ; 26
National Category
Energy Systems
Research subject
Research Centres, Sustainable Energy Research Centre (SERC)
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:du-53975ISBN: 978-91-990244-9-3 (print)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:du-53975DiVA, id: diva2:2075129
Presentation
2026-08-28, B101, Campus Borlänge, 10:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Available from: 2026-07-13 Created: 2026-06-18 Last updated: 2026-07-13Bibliographically approved
List of papers
1. A Review of the Coherence of Strategies to Optimize Photovoltaic Systems within the Built Environment in Nordic Countries
Open this publication in new window or tab >>A Review of the Coherence of Strategies to Optimize Photovoltaic Systems within the Built Environment in Nordic Countries
2024 (English)In: EuroSun 2024 Proceedings, International Solar Energy Society , 2024Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

Climate change is often cited in renewable energy research by stating motives in environmental, technical, social, and economic categories, which can be linked to metrics that are called key performance indicators (KPIs). Furthermore, these indicators can be set as a target for an optimization model and become optimization objectives. This paper critically reviews the motives, optimization objectives, and KPIs selected in studies of solar photovoltaic (PV) systems with energy storage within the built environment in Nordic countries. A subset of 36 scientific articles, sorted as relevant from a selection of 349, was analyzed to make the review. The results reveal that even when environmental motives are expressed by 75% of the authors, only 8% focus on optimizing with environmental indicators. This imbalance suggests that the environmental problems intended to be addressed with the optimization model could be left unchanged or even exacerbated by the strategic choices made during the energy modeling. In addition to this, there is a lack of consistency in the way the different indicators are calculated, especially for environmental indicators where the impacts of materials and manufacturing were not included. Furthermore, in the economic and technical categories, the economic volatility and peak power motives do not have a matching indicator within the articles analyzed. Therefore, it is recommended to conduct comprehensive optimization studies that align with carefully considered motives.  

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
International Solar Energy Society, 2024
Keywords
photovoltaic, optimization, key performance indicators, Nordic
National Category
Energy Engineering Energy Systems
Research subject
Research Centres, Sustainable Energy Research Centre (SERC)
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:du-53940 (URN)10.18086/eurosun.2024.01.12 (DOI)
Conference
15th International Conference on Solar Energy for Buildings and Industry, Limassol, Cyprus, 26–30 August 2024.
Available from: 2026-06-17 Created: 2026-06-17 Last updated: 2026-06-18Bibliographically approved
2. Analysis of multi-objective optimization models for sizing solar photovoltaic systems under a low-carbon grid scenario
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Analysis of multi-objective optimization models for sizing solar photovoltaic systems under a low-carbon grid scenario
(English)Manuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

The optimization of solar photovoltaic (PV) systems has been proposed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in building energy use. However, despite the environmental concerns shown, most of the studies optimize technical and/or economic objectives. Furthermore, the consequences of the optimization objective selection in the environmental impact of PV systems in buildings remains unexplored. Therefore, this study aims to quantify the life cycle global warming potential (GWP) effects of selecting different optimization objectives in a PV capacity optimization model. To achieve this, three multi-objective optimization models of a PV system are compared, using the Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm-II (NSGA-II): (1) maximizing self-sufficiency and self-consumption, (2) maximizing the internal rate of return and net present value (NPV), and (3) minimizing global warming potential and maximizing NPV. The results show that the solutions provided by models with only technical or economic objectives do not always lead to a reduction in GWP. Furthermore, optimizing technical or economic objectives can increase GWP by up to 10.3% or reduce it by up to 5.3%, depending on the embodied impact of the PV system. These results are obtained under Swedish conditions, where the electricity supplied by the grid has a low carbon intensity. Nevertheless, this study shows that optimizing PV generation capacity for technical or economic objectives does not necessarily reduce life-cycle GWP.

Keywords
Capacity optimization, global warming potential, photovoltaic systems, multi-objective optimization
National Category
Energy Engineering Energy Systems
Research subject
Research Centres, Sustainable Energy Research Centre (SERC)
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:du-53941 (URN)
Available from: 2026-06-17 Created: 2026-06-17 Last updated: 2026-06-18Bibliographically approved
3. Analysis of the hourly Global Warming Potential mitigation of photovoltaic systems in Europe
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Analysis of the hourly Global Warming Potential mitigation of photovoltaic systems in Europe
2025 (English)In: Energy Proceedings, Scanditale AB , 2025, Vol. 16Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

The fastest growing renewable energy technology in Europe is solar photovoltaic (PV). Despite no burning fossil fuels during its operation, the production of PV modules and other components cause the emission of greenhouse gases. The global warming potential (GWP) associated with the generation of PV energy can be higher than that from the grid in some locations. This study explores the fraction of the year, and its related energy generation, during which PV energy has a lower global warming potential than the local grid. This analysis is done in seven different locations within Europe, for three PV systems with different GWP. The results show that in most cases the PV systems have the capacity of reducing the GWP from the grid 100% of the time. However, there are a few exceptions in countries with a low-carbon grid such as France, Sweden and Norway with a GWP reduction related to only 46%, 16% and 17% of the energy generation respectively. © 2025, Scanditale AB. All rights reserved.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Scanditale AB, 2025
Series
Energy Proceedings, E-ISSN 2004-2965 ; 61
Keywords
global warming potential, life cycle assessment, mitigation technologies, photovoltaic
National Category
Energy Systems Energy Engineering
Research subject
Research Centres, Sustainable Energy Research Centre (SERC)
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:du-53326 (URN)10.46855/energy-proceedings-12112 (DOI)2-s2.0-105034278830 (Scopus ID)
Conference
Applied Energy Symposium and Forum: Resilient energy systems, Resilient 2025, Yancheng, China, 23 September 2025 - 25 September 2025
Available from: 2026-04-16 Created: 2026-04-16 Last updated: 2026-06-18
4. Greenhouse gas mitigation potential of solar photovoltaics: a highly variable indicator within the European Union
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Greenhouse gas mitigation potential of solar photovoltaics: a highly variable indicator within the European Union
2026 (English)In: npj Clean Energy, E-ISSN 3059-2232, Vol. 2, no 1, article id 15Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Solar photovoltaic (PV) is a key technology for decarbonization. However, these systems cause an environmental impact along their life cycle. Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and mitigation from PV have been studied on a world level, with a yearly resolution, concluding that there are significant differences in decarbonization depending on where PV systems are deployed. This study explores the life-cycle GHG mitigation potential in the European Union countries with hourly resolution. The lifecycleGHGmitigation potential from PV can vary from 0.6 tCO2ekWp−1 in Sweden to 18.6CO2ekWp−1 in Cyprus. Furthermore, a difference between calculating with an hourly and yearly resolution up to 49% is found. Despite this estimation being dependant on future decarbonization scenarios and other limitations, the variation between countries suggest that these results could be used as a decisionmaking tool to prioritize PV deployment in regions with higher mitigation potential. 

National Category
Energy Systems Environmental Management
Research subject
Research Centres, Sustainable Energy Research Centre (SERC)
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:du-53950 (URN)10.1038/s44406-026-00032-w (DOI)
Funder
Swedish Energy Agency, 52693-1
Available from: 2026-06-17 Created: 2026-06-17 Last updated: 2026-06-18Bibliographically approved

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