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Deep Learning for Pavement Distress Forecasting: A Hybrid-LSTM Approach and Application Evaluation for Efficient Pavement Maintenance Forecasting
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Technology, Department of Civil and Industrial Engineering, Industrial Engineering and Management.
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Technology, Department of Civil and Industrial Engineering, Industrial Engineering and Management.
2025 (English)Independent thesis Advanced level (professional degree), 300 HE creditsStudent thesis
Abstract [en]

Effective pavement management relies on timely, accurate data to assess road conditions. However, traditional monitoring methods often provide infrequent data, hindering the development of robust short-term forecasting models for road degradation. This study evaluates how high-frequency data from computer vision condition assessment can be used to predict the change in crack count over winter months. A hybrid forecasting model combining Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and dense neural network structures with static features was developed, leveraging key distress indicators such as crack count, pothole count, and the Pavement Condition Index (PCI), supplemented with openly available static road information to enhance prediction accuracy. Additionally, qualitative insights from semi-structured interviews with industry stakeholders, including transport agencies, contractors, and researchers, were integrated to assess the practical applicability and operational challenges associated with predictive maintenance methods. The results show that combining high-frequency image data with ML techniques has the possibility to predict the formation of cracks over the winter, while limitations in the size of the dataset warrant further research on the subject. By enabling forecasting, the proposed approach, with more robust and diverse data, has the ability to support data-driven decision-making, leading to more timely, cost-effective, and efficient maintenance planning, which in turn could lead to safer roads. Ultimately, these advancements have the potential to extend pavement lifespan and optimize resource utilization across infrastructure networks.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2025. , p. 66
Series
UPTEC I ; 25011
Keywords [en]
Pavement Distress Forecasting, Hybrid LSTM-ANN, Time Series Forecasting, Pavement Management, Crack Detection, Maintenance Planning
National Category
Artificial Intelligence
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-559257OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-559257DiVA, id: diva2:1977793
External cooperation
Univrses AB
Educational program
Master's Programme in Industrial Engineering and Management
Supervisors
Examiners
Available from: 2025-06-26 Created: 2025-06-26 Last updated: 2025-06-26Bibliographically approved

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CiteExportLink to record
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  • apa
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