Aims We aimed to investigate the association between the exercise systolic blood pressure (SBP) response and future hypertension (HTN) in normotensive individuals referred for cycle ergometry, with special regard to reference exercise SBP values and exercise capacity.Methods and results In this longitudinal cohort study, data from 14 428 exercise tests were cross-linked with Swedish national registries on diagnoses and medications. We excluded individuals with a baseline diagnosis of cardiovascular disease or HTN. The peak exercise SBP (SBPpeak) was recorded and compared with the upper limit of normal (ULN) derived from SBP(pea)k reference equations incorporating age, sex, resting SBP, and exercise capacity. To evaluate the impact of exercise capacity, three SBP to work rate slopes (SBP/W-slopes) were calculated, relative to either supine or seated SBP at rest or to the first exercise SBP. Adjusted hazard ratios [HRadjusted (95% confidence interval, CI)] for incident HTN during follow-up, in relation to SBP response metrics, were calculated. We included 3895 normotensive individuals (49 +/- 14 years, 45% females) with maximal cycle ergometer tests. During follow-up (median 7.5 years), 22% developed HTN. Higher SBP(peak )and SBPpeak > ULN were associated with incident HTN [HRadjusted 1.19 (1.14-1.23) per 10 mmHg, and 1.95 (1.54-2.47), respectively]. All three SBP/W-slopes were positively associated with incident HTN, particularly the SBP/W-slope calculated as supine-to-peak SBP [HRadjusted 1.25 (1.19-1.31) per 1 mmHg/10 W].Conclusion Both SBPpeak > ULN based on reference values and high SBP/W-slopes were associated with incident HTN in normotensive individuals and should be considered in the evaluation of the cycle ergometry SBP response.Lay summary We examined the systolic blood pressure (SBP) response during maximal bicycle exercise testing in individuals without hypertension (HTN) or established cardiovascular disease and found that:center dot When applying reference values for peak SBP during cycling exercise, accounting for age, sex, resting blood pressure (BP), and exercise capacity, exceeding the upper limit of normal was associated with twice as high relative risk of future HTN, compared with having a peak SBP within normal limits.center dot A steep increase in exercise SBP in relation to the increase in work rate was also associated with future HTN but did not always coincide with elevated peak SBP.