Digitala Vetenskapliga Arkivet

Change search
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf
Predicting Equity Fund Returns: The Impact of the Momentum-Factor on Performance
KTH, School of Engineering Sciences (SCI), Mathematics (Dept.), Mathematical Statistics.
KTH, School of Engineering Sciences (SCI), Mathematics (Dept.), Mathematical Statistics.
2023 (English)Independent thesis Basic level (degree of Bachelor), 10 credits / 15 HE creditsStudent thesisAlternative title
Predicering av aktiefondsavkastning: Effekten av momentum-faktorn på prisutveckling (Swedish)
Abstract [en]

Momentum has been a persistent and robust factor in explaining excess future returns, generating great interest from investors and financial analysts. Following the financial crisis of 2008 and the Covid-19 pandemic, there have been instances of significant momentum crashes. US Equity funds are used to gain insights about the properties of momentum and its predictive ability. Momentum performance is evaluated over the period 2000 to 2023. A multifactor model is developed, using factor attribution to explain the impact on fund performance over time by factors such as risk, size, value-growth orientation and momentum. Conclusions can be made that while momentum have previously been successful in predicting future returns, particularly for growth-oriented funds, recent market situations have lead to underperformance. The multifactor model, incorporating size and value-growth orientation, suggests that momentum is not entirely responsible for the poor performance following the Covid-19 crisis.

Abstract [sv]

Momentum har historiskt sett varit en framgångsrik faktor för att predicera framtida avkastning, vilket har skapat stort intresse från investerare och finansiella analytiker. Efter finanskrisen 2008 och Covid-19 pandemin har det skett signifikanta momentumkrascher. Amerikanska aktiefonder används för att undersöka egenskaperna hos momentum och dess prediktiva förmåga. Prestationen av momentum utvärderas under tidsperioden 2000 till 2023. En multifaktormodell utvecklas, som använder faktor-attribution för att förklara hur fonders avkastning påverkas över tid av faktorer såsom risk, marknadsvärde, värde/tillväxt-orientering och momentum. En slutsats dras att även fast momentum har presterat väl historiskt för att predicera framtida avkastning, särskilt för tillväxt-orienterade aktiefonder, så har den senaste tidens marknadsrörelser lett till underprestation. Multifaktormodellen, som innehåller marknadsvärde och värde/tillväxt-orientering, indikerar att momentum inte är en lika stor anledning till underavkastningen efter Covid-19 krisen.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2023.
Series
TRITA-SCI-GRU ; 2023:238
Keywords [en]
Equity Funds, Value, Growth, Momentum, Carhart Four-Factor Model, Multifactor Model, Momentum Crashes
Keywords [sv]
Aktiefonder, Värdeaktier, Tillväxtaktier, Momentum, Carhart Four-Factor Model, Multifaktormodell, Momentumkrascher
National Category
Probability Theory and Statistics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-342321OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-342321DiVA, id: diva2:1827858
External cooperation
Söderberg & Partners. Externhandledare: Rickard Nordin
Subject / course
Applied Mathematics and Industrial Economics
Educational program
Master of Science in Engineering - Industrial Engineering and Management
Supervisors
Examiners
Available from: 2024-01-15 Created: 2024-01-15 Last updated: 2024-01-15Bibliographically approved

Open Access in DiVA

fulltext(1013 kB)386 downloads
File information
File name FULLTEXT01.pdfFile size 1013 kBChecksum SHA-512
24566606bf8d1c77d4714346e3a631414c0bd62bbb85bd53c6f0017f5b225330331ea9f1d5b3d28f79cc81cbac59c546ba84d08f13492c4885ed46e713f5e4cd
Type fulltextMimetype application/pdf

By organisation
Mathematical Statistics
Probability Theory and Statistics

Search outside of DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar
Total: 389 downloads
The number of downloads is the sum of all downloads of full texts. It may include eg previous versions that are now no longer available

urn-nbn

Altmetric score

urn-nbn
Total: 785 hits
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf