Background: A critical step in tuberculosis (TB) drug development is the Phase 2a early bactericidal activity (EBA) study which informs if a new drug or treatment has short-term activity in humans. The aim of this work was to present a standardized pharmacometric model-based early bactericidal activity analysis workflow and determine sample sizes needed to detect early bactericidal activity or a difference between treatment arms.

Methods: Seven different steps were identified and developed for a standardized pharmacometric model-based early bactericidal activity analysis approach. Non-linear mixed effects modeling was applied and different scenarios were explored for the sample size calculations. The sample sizes needed to detect early bactericidal activity given different TTP slopes and associated variability was assessed. In addition, the sample sizes needed to detect effect differences between two treatments given the impact of different TTP slopes, variability in TTP slope and effect differences were evaluated.

Results: The presented early bactericidal activity analysis approach incorporates estimate of early bactericidal activity with uncertainty through the model-based estimate of TTP slope, variability in TTP slope, impact of covariates and pharmacokinetics on drug efficacy. Further it allows for treatment comparison or dose optimization in Phase 2a. To detect early bactericidal activity with 80% power and at a 5% significance level, 13 and 8 participants/arm were required for a treatment with a TTP-EBA(0-14) as low as 11 h when accounting for variability in pharmacokinetics and when variability in TTP slope was 104% [coefficient of variation (CV)] and 22%, respectively. Higher sample sizes are required for smaller early bactericidal activity and when pharmacokinetics is not accounted for. Based on sample size determinations to detect a difference between two groups, TTP slope, variability in TTP slope and effect difference between two treatment arms needs to be considered.

Conclusion: In conclusion, a robust standardized pharmacometric model-based EBA analysis approach was established in close collaboration between microbiologists, clinicians and pharmacometricians. The work illustrates the importance of accounting for covariates and drug exposure in EBA analysis in order to increase the power of detecting early bactericidal activity for a single treatment arm as well as differences in EBA between treatments arms in Phase 2a trials of TB drug development.

Rationale: Carbapenems are recommended for treatment of drug-resistant tuberculosis. Optimal dosing remains uncertain.

Objectives: To evaluate the 14-day bactericidal activity of meropenem, at different doses, with or without rifampin.

Methods: Individuals with drug-sensitive pulmonary tuberculosis were randomized to one of four intravenous meropenem-based arms: 2 g every 8 hours (TID) (arm C), 2 g TID plus rifampin at 20 mg/kg once daily (arm D), 1 g TID (arm E), or 3 g once daily (arm F). All participants received amoxicillin/clavulanate with each meropenem dose. Serial overnight sputum samples were collected from baseline and throughout treatment. Median daily fall in colony-forming unit (CFU) counts per milliliter of sputum (solid culture) (EBA(CFU0-14)) and increase in time to positive culture (TTP) in liquid media were estimated with mixed-effects modeling. Serial blood samples were collected for pharmacokinetic analysis on Day 13.

Measurements and Main Results: Sixty participants enrolled. Median EBA(CFU0-14) counts (2.5th-97.5th percentiles) were 0.22 (0.12-0.33), 0.12 (0.057-0.21), 0.059 (0.033-0.097), and 0.053 (0.035-0.081); TTP increased by 0.34 (0.21-0.75), 0.11 (0.052-037), 0.094 (0.034-0.23), and 0.12 (0.04-0.41) (log(10) h), for arms C-F, respectively. Meropenem pharmacokinetics were not affected by rifampin coadministration. Twelve participants withdrew early, many of whom cited gastrointestinal adverse events.

Conclusions: Bactericidal activity was greater with the World Health Organization-recommended total daily dose of 6 g daily than with a lower dose of 3 g daily. This difference was only detectable with solid culture. Tolerability of intravenous meropenem, with amoxicillin/clavulanate, though, was poor at all doses, calling into question the utility of this drug in second-line regimens.

Marzeptacog alfa (activated) (MarzAA) is an activated recombinant human FVII (rFVIIa) variant developed as subcutaneous (s.c.) administration for the treatment or prevention of bleeding episodes in patients with hemophilia A (HA) or hemophilia B (HB) with inhibitors and other rare bleeding disorders. Population pharmacokinetic (PK) modeling was applied for dose selection for a pivotal phase III clinical trial evaluating s.c. MarzAA for episodic treatment of spontaneous or traumatic bleeding episodes. The population PK model used MarzAA intravenous and s.c. data from previously completed clinical trials in patients with HA/HB with or without inhibitors. Based on the model, clinical trial simulations were performed to predict MarzAA exposure after different dosing regimens. The exposure target was identified using an exposure-matching strategy with a wild-type rFVIIa but adjusting for the difference in potency between the two compounds. Simulations demonstrated a sufficient absorption rate and prolonged exposure following a single 60 μg/kg dose leading to 51% and 70% of the population reaching levels above the target after 3 and 6 h, respectively. According to the phase III protocol, if a second dose was required after 3 h because of a lack of efficacy, 90% of the population was observed to be above target 6 h after the initial dose. The model-informed drug development approach integrated information from several trials and guided dose selection in the pivotal phase III clinical trial for episodic treatment of an acute bleeding event in individuals with HA or HB with inhibitors without the execution of a phase II trial for that indication.

Marzeptacog alfa (activated) (MarzAA) is an activated recombinant human rFVII variant intended for subcutaneous (s.c.) administration to treat or prevent bleeding in individuals with hemophilia A (HA) or B (HB) with inhibitors, and other rare bleeding disorders. The s.c. administration provides benefits over i.v. injections. The objective of the study was to support the first-in-pediatric dose selection for s.c. MarzAA to treat episodic bleeding episodes in children up through 11 years in a registrational phase III trial. Assuming the same exposure-response relationship as in adults, an exposure matching strategy was used with a population pharmacokinetics model. A sensitivity analysis evaluating the impact of doubling in absorption rate and age-dependent allometric exponents on dose selection was performed. Subsequently, the probability of trial success, defined as the number of successful trials for a given pediatric dose divided by the number of simulated trials (n = 1000) was studied. A successful trial was defined as outcome where four, three, or two out of 24 pediatric subjects per trial were allowed to fall outside the adult exposures after s.c. administration of 60 mu g/kg. A dose of 60 mu g/ kg in children with HA/HB was supported by the clinical trial simulations to match exposures in adults. The sensitivity analyses further supported selection of the 60 mu g/kg dose level in all age groups. Moreover, the probability of trial success evaluations given a plausible design confirmed the potential of a 60 mu g/kg dose level. Taken together, this work demonstrates the utility of model-informed drug development and could be helpful for other pediatric development programs for rare diseases.

IntroductionDalcinonacog alfa (DalcA), a novel subcutaneously administered recombinant human factor IX (FIX) variant is being developed for adult and paediatric patients with hemophilia B (HB). DalcA has been shown to raise FIX to clinically meaningful levels in adults with HB. This work aimed to support dosing regimen selection in adults and perform first-in-paediatric dose extrapolations using a model-based pharmacokinetic (PK) approach.MethodsA population PK model was built using adult data from two clinical trials (NCT03186677, NCT03995784). With allometry in the model, clinical trial simulations were performed to study alternative dosing regimens in adults and children. Steady-state trough levels and the time-to-reach target were derived to inform dose selection.ResultsAlmost 90% of the adults were predicted to achieve desirable FIX levels, i.e. 10% FIX activity, following daily 100 IU/kg dosing, with 90% of the subjects reaching target within 1.6-7.1 days. No every-other-day regimen met the target. A dose of 125 IU/kg resulted in adequate FIX levels down to 6 years, whereas a 150 IU/kg dose was needed below 6 down to 2 years of age. For subjects down to 6 years that did not reach target with 125 IU/kg, a dose escalation to 150 IU/kg was appropriate. The children below 6 to 2 years were shown to need a dose escalation to 200 IU/kg if 150 IU/kg given daily was insufficient.ConclusionThis study supported the adult dose selection for DalcA in the presence of sparse data and enabled first-in-paediatric dose selection to achieve FIX levels that reduce risk of spontaneous bleeds.

Marzeptacog alfa (MarzAA) is under development for subcutaneous treatment of episodic bleeds in patients with hemophilia A/B and was studied in a phase III trial evaluating MarzAA compared with standard-of-care (SoC) for on-demand use. The work presented here aimed to evaluate MarzAA and SoC treatment of bleeding events on a standardized four-point efficacy scale (poor, fair, good, and excellent). Two continuous-time Markov modeling approaches were explored; a four-state model analyzing all four categories of bleeding improvement and a two-state model analyzing a binarized outcome (treatment failure (poor/fair), and treatment success (good/excellent)). Different covariates impacting improvement of bleeding episodes as well as a putative relationship between MarzAA exposure and improvement of bleeding episodes were evaluated. In the final four-state model, higher baseline diastolic blood pressure and higher age (> 33 years of age) were found to negatively and positively impact improvement of bleeding condition, respectively. Bleeding events occurring in knees and ankles were found to improve faster than bleeding events at other locations. The covariate effects had most impact on early treatment success (≤ 3 hours) whereas at later timepoints (> 12 hours), treatment success was similar for all patients indicating that these covariates might be clinically relevant for early treatment response. A statistically significant relationship between MarzAA zero-order absorption and improvement of bleedings (P < 0.05) were identified albeit with low precision. No statistically significant difference in treatment response between MarzAA and intravenous SoC was identified, indicating the potential of MarzAA for treatment of episodic bleeding events with a favorable subcutaneous administration route.

Rare disease studies in pediatric subjects are challenging due to small sample sizes. Pharmacokinetic (PK) information in pediatric subjects is important and often used for matching strategy towards adults informing pediatric development program. Prior to studying PK in children, it is important to optimize the sparse sampling schedule and show that the study is designed to estimate key PK parameters with sufficient certainty. In this work, the sampling schedule in children was optimized for marzeptacog alfa activated (MarzAA) and dalcinonacog alfa (DalcA), two drugs in development for treatment of hemophilia. Subsequently, evaluation of different model-based approaches to calculate the power to estimate clearance (CL) and volume of distribution (V) using a fixed sample size (n=24) was performed. Usage of Bayesian priors (up to 2x inflation of the adult priors) performed well (power   80 %), but with lower power with decreasing informativeness (5x and 10x inflation of the adult priors), in particular for DalcA. Reusing the full adult model or a simplified model for standalone analysis of the pediatric data did not perform well (<80% power). Fixing the adult PK parameters except for CL and V performed well when pooling adult and pediatric data (power 100 %). In general, the power to estimate V alone or CL together with V was lower than for CL, indicating that the sampling schedules were more informative for CL. Although Bayesian prior approaches were shown to perform well without need of pooling data, other approaches that require less technical expertise and no need for simplification of the adult model were found to be good alternatives when pooling of data is possible.