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CAN GOLD SERVE AS A HEDGE AGAINST UNCERTAINTY?: A study on the gold price dynamics and its role as a safe haven asset
Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Umeå School of Business and Economics (USBE), Economics.
2022 (English)Independent thesis Basic level (degree of Bachelor), 10 credits / 15 HE creditsStudent thesis
Abstract [en]

Gold’s ability to retain its real value in times of uncertainty and financial turmoil has long been of interest to investors and central banks worldwide. Gold has historically been used as a monetary means due to its store of value and in the early days, gold coins were used as a currency. In the 1940s, the Bretton Woods agreement emerged, where countries’ currencies were fixed to a specific amount of gold. The system was diminished in the 1970s, but gold still remains as a pertinent part of the monetary system. The precious metal has succeeded to retain its attractiveness and is often portrayed as a safe haven asset as well as an indicator of wealth.

This paper analyzes the gold price dynamics and its ability to act as a safe haven in times of uncertainty. Furthermore, it investigates if gold can act as a hedge against the Swedish stock market, using a correlation test with the OMXS30 index. An OLS-regression has been run on the empirical non-linear model presented in this paper. The results of the regression showed a positive relationship between gold price and crude oil price, whereas GDP, the U.S. treasury and the U.S. stock market showed to have a negative relationship with the price of gold. A correlation test including dummy variables of the eurozone debt crisis, the financial crisis and the covid-19 pandemic indicated a positive relationship between gold and all the variables, hence concluding that gold is a safe haven asset. A correlation test has also been used to evaluate the association between gold price and OMXS30 and a weak, negative relationship was found.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2022.
National Category
Economics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-197491OAI: oai:DiVA.org:umu-197491DiVA, id: diva2:1678264
Available from: 2022-06-29 Created: 2022-06-29 Last updated: 2022-06-29Bibliographically approved

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CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

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Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
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Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
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  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
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  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
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  • asciidoc
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