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A carbon budget for Rostock: Suggestions for a fair local contribution to the Paris Agreement in view of current climate targets
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences.
2020 (English)Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (Two Years)), 20 credits / 30 HE creditsStudent thesis
Abstract [en]

The increase of global average temperature depends linearly on the amount of carbon dioxide that is accumulating in the atmosphere. Consequently, the determination of a temperature target that should not be exceeded, corresponds to an amount of carbon dioxide that can still be emitted. This is referred to as a carbon budget. With the Paris Agreement, a global commitment to such a target exists. The signatories have pledged to hold “the increase in global average temperature to well below 2°C […] and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C”. Although the wording leaves room for interpretation, the Paris Agreement can hence be translated into a remaining global carbon budget. The distribution of this budget amongst countries can be a way to close the gap between the committed target and Nationally Determined Contributions, which are submitted by each country but currently expected to lead to a warming of more than 2°C. Taking the concept of national carbon budgets further and sharing them out on a smaller scale can support municipalities in framing their mitigation targets and planning measures accordingly.

In this regard, the aim of this thesis was to calculate a Paris-compliant carbon budget for the city of Rostock, Germany. This was done by sharing out the remaining global carbon budget amongst countries based on the notion of ‘common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities’, which is part of the Paris Agreement. To reflect on this notion two different country classifications were applied which resulted in carbon budgets for Germany of 4 450 and 6 200 MtCO2 respectively up from 1st January 2021. For a share between German municipalities, the grandfathering principle was applied. It allocates a budget to a municipality depending on the proportion in national emissions. An inventory, which was prepared for this purpose, revealed that Rostock’s territorial emissions accounted for 0.12% of all-German emissions in 2017. Based on this share, Rostock would receive a budget of 5 500 to 7 600 ktCO2 up from 2021, depending on the country classification. The thesis found further that current mitigation targets were falling short of complying with the Paris Agreement. Currently, both Germany and Rostock are basing their efforts on budgets two to three times larger than what can be considered a fair contribution.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2020. , p. 51
Series
Examensarbete vid Institutionen för geovetenskaper, ISSN 1650-6553 ; 2020/42
Keywords [en]
Sustainable Development, Carbon budgets, Local carbon budget, Climate targets, Paris Agreement, Emission inventory
National Category
Earth and Related Environmental Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-416620OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-416620DiVA, id: diva2:1455327
Subject / course
Sustainable development
Educational program
Master Programme in Sustainable Development
Presentation
2020-05-28, Geocentrum, Villavägen 16, Uppsala, 11:15 (English)
Supervisors
Examiners
Available from: 2020-07-23 Created: 2020-07-23 Last updated: 2020-07-23Bibliographically approved

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CiteExportLink to record
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Citation style
  • apa
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Output format
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