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Transformative Decision Rules: Foundations and Applications
KTH, Tidigare Institutioner (före 2005), Infrastruktur.
2003 (Engelska)Doktorsavhandling, sammanläggning (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
Abstract [en]

A transformative decision rule alters the representation of a decisionproblem, either by changing the sets of acts and states taken intoconsideration, or by modifying the probability or value assignments.Examples of decision rules belonging to this class are the principleof insufficient reason, Isaac Levi’s condition of E-admissibility, Luceand Raiffa’s merger of states-rule, and the de minimis principle. Inthis doctoral thesis transformative decision rules are analyzed froma foundational point of view, and applied to two decision theoreticalproblems: (i) How should a rational decision maker model a decisionproblem in a formal representation (‘problem specification’, ‘formaldescription’)? (ii) What role can transformative decision rules play inthe justification of the principle of maximizing expected utility?The thesis consists of a summary and seven papers. In Papers Iand II certain foundational issues concerning transformative decisionrules are investigated, and a number of formal properties of this classof rules are proved: convergence, iterativity, and permutability. InPaper III it is argued that there is in general no unique representationof a decision problem that is strictly better than all alternative representations.In Paper IV it is shown that the principle of maximizingexpected utility can be decomposed into a sequence of transformativedecision rules. A set of axioms is proposed that together justify theprinciple of maximizing expected utility. It is shown that the suggestedaxiomatization provides a resolution of Allais’ paradox that cannot beobtained by Savage-style, nor by von Neumann and Morgenstern-styleaxiomatizations. In Paper V the axiomatization from Paper IV is furtherelaborated, and compared to the axiomatizations proposed byvon Neumann and Morgenstern, and Savage. The main results in PaperVI are two impossibility theorems for catastrophe averse decisionrules, demonstrating that given a few reasonable desiderata for suchrules, there is no rule that can fulfill the proposed desiderata. In PaperVII transformative decision rules are applied to extreme risks, i.e.to a potential outcome of an act for which the probability is low, butwhose (negative) value is high.

Ort, förlag, år, upplaga, sidor
Stockholm: KTH Royal Institute of Technology, 2003. , s. x, 72
Serie
Theses in philosophy from the Royal Institute of Technology, ISSN 1650-8831 ; 3
Nyckelord [en]
transformative decision rule, problem specification, framing, expected utility, decision theory
Nationell ämneskategori
Filosofi
Identifikatorer
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-3512ISBN: 91-7283-460-9 (tryckt)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-3512DiVA, id: diva2:9326
Disputation
2003-05-16, 00:00
Anmärkning

QC 20100622

Tillgänglig från: 2003-05-12 Skapad: 2003-05-12 Senast uppdaterad: 2022-06-22Bibliografiskt granskad
Delarbeten
1. Transformative decision rules
Öppna denna publikation i ny flik eller fönster >>Transformative decision rules
2003 (Engelska)Ingår i: Erkenntnis, ISSN 0165-0106, E-ISSN 1572-8420, Vol. 58, nr 1, s. 71-85Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat) Published
Abstract [en]

A transformative decision rule transforms a given decision problem into another by altering the structure of the initial problem, either by changing the framing or by modifying the probability or value assignments. Examples of decision rules belonging this class are the principle of insufficient reason, Isaac Levi's condition of E-admissibility, the de minimis rule, and the precautionary principle. In the papers some foundational issues concerning transformative decision rules are investigated, and a couple of formal properties of this class of rules are proved.

Nationell ämneskategori
Filosofi
Identifikatorer
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-13463 (URN)10.1023/A:1021822609758 (DOI)000181164700006 ()
Anmärkning
QC 20100618Tillgänglig från: 2010-06-18 Skapad: 2010-06-18 Senast uppdaterad: 2022-06-25Bibliografiskt granskad
2. Transformative decision rules, permutability, and non-sequential framing of decision problems
Öppna denna publikation i ny flik eller fönster >>Transformative decision rules, permutability, and non-sequential framing of decision problems
2004 (Engelska)Ingår i: Synthese, ISSN 0039-7857, E-ISSN 1573-0964, Vol. 139, nr 3, s. 387-403Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat) Published
Abstract [en]

The concept of transformative decision rules provides a useful tool for analyzing what is often referred to as the 'framing', or 'problem specification', or 'editing' phase of decision making. In the present study we analyze a fundamental aspect of transformative decision rules, viz. permutability. A set of transformative decision rules is, roughly put, permutable just in case it does not matter in which order the rules are applied. It is argued that in order to be normatively reasonable, sets of transformative decision rules have to satisfy a number of structural conditions that together imply permutability. This formal result gives support to a non-sequential theory of framing, i.e., a theory which prescribes no uniform order in which different steps in the framing process have to be performed.

Nationell ämneskategori
Filosofi
Identifikatorer
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-13603 (URN)10.1023/B:SYNT.0000024885.09894.ba (DOI)000220957500002 ()2-s2.0-28844476353 (Scopus ID)
Anmärkning
QC 20100622Tillgänglig från: 2010-06-22 Skapad: 2010-06-22 Senast uppdaterad: 2022-06-25Bibliografiskt granskad
3. Rival Representations of Decision Problems
Öppna denna publikation i ny flik eller fönster >>Rival Representations of Decision Problems
(Engelska)Manuskript (preprint) (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
Nationell ämneskategori
Filosofi
Identifikatorer
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-13595 (URN)
Anmärkning
QC 20100622Tillgänglig från: 2010-06-22 Skapad: 2010-06-22 Senast uppdaterad: 2022-06-25Bibliografiskt granskad
4. An argument for the principle of maximizing expected utility
Öppna denna publikation i ny flik eller fönster >>An argument for the principle of maximizing expected utility
2008 (Engelska)Ingår i: Theoria, ISSN 0040-5825, E-ISSN 1755-2567, Vol. 38, nr 2, s. 112-128Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat) Published
Abstract [en]

The main result of this paper is a formal argument for the principle of maximizing expected utility that does not rely on the law of large numbers. Unlike the well-known arguments by Savage and von Neumann & Morgenstern, this argument does not presuppose the sure-thing principle or the independence axiom. The principal idea is to use the concept of transformative decision rules for decomposing the principle of maximizing expected utility into a sequence of normatively reasonable subrules. It is shown that this procedure provides a resolution of Allais's paradox that cannot be obtained by Savage-style or von Neumann & Morgenstern-style arguments.

Identifikatorer
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-13458 (URN)10.1111/j.1755-2567.2002.tb00124.x (DOI)2-s2.0-2142775107 (Scopus ID)
Anmärkning
QC 20100618Tillgänglig från: 2010-06-18 Skapad: 2010-06-18 Senast uppdaterad: 2022-06-25Bibliografiskt granskad
5. From Outcomes to Acts: A Non-Standard Axiomatization of the Expected Utility Principle
Öppna denna publikation i ny flik eller fönster >>From Outcomes to Acts: A Non-Standard Axiomatization of the Expected Utility Principle
2004 (Engelska)Ingår i: Journal of Philosophical Logic, ISSN 0022-3611, E-ISSN 1573-0433, Vol. 33, nr 4, s. 361-378Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat) Published
Abstract [en]

This paper presents an axiomatization of the principle of maximizing expected utility that does not rely on the independence axiom or sure-thing principle. Perhaps more importantly the new axiomatization is based on an ex ante approach, instead of the standard ex post approach. An ex post approach utilizes the decision maker's preferences among risky acts for generating a utility and a probability function, whereas in the ex ante approach a set of preferences among potential outcomes are on the input side of the theory and the decision maker's preferences among risky acts on the output side.

Nyckelord
ex ante, ex post, expected utility, Savage, von Neumann, Morgenstern
Nationell ämneskategori
Filosofi
Identifikatorer
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-13600 (URN)10.1023/B:LOGI.0000036852.81010.db (DOI)000223705700002 ()2-s2.0-70949101449 (Scopus ID)
Anmärkning
QC 20100622 QC 20110926Tillgänglig från: 2010-06-22 Skapad: 2010-06-22 Senast uppdaterad: 2022-06-25Bibliografiskt granskad
6. The limits of catastrophe aversion
Öppna denna publikation i ny flik eller fönster >>The limits of catastrophe aversion
2002 (Engelska)Ingår i: Risk Analysis, ISSN 0272-4332, E-ISSN 1539-6924, Vol. 22, nr 3, s. 527-538Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat) Published
Abstract [en]

We discuss the management of catastrophe-risks from a theoretical point of view. The concept of a catastrophe is informally and formally defined, and a number of desiderata for catastrophe-averse decision rules are introduced. However, the proposed desiderata turn out to be mutually inconsistent. As a consequence of this result, it is argued that the "rigid" form of catastrophe aversion articulated by, for example, the maximin rule, the maximum probable loss rule, (some versions of) the precautionary principle, and the rule proposed in Ekenberg et al. (1997, 2000) should be given up. An alternative form of "non-rigid" catastrophe aversion is considered.

Nyckelord
RISK
Nationell ämneskategori
Filosofi
Identifikatorer
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-13604 (URN)10.1111/0272-4332.00036 (DOI)000176547800016 ()12088231 (PubMedID)2-s2.0-0036081853 (Scopus ID)
Anmärkning
QC 20100622Tillgänglig från: 2010-06-22 Skapad: 2010-06-22 Senast uppdaterad: 2022-06-25Bibliografiskt granskad
7. New Technologies And The Ethics Of Extreme Risks
Öppna denna publikation i ny flik eller fönster >>New Technologies And The Ethics Of Extreme Risks
2001 (Engelska)Ingår i: Ends and meansArtikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat) Published
Nationell ämneskategori
Filosofi
Identifikatorer
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-13462 (URN)
Anmärkning
QC 20100618Tillgänglig från: 2010-06-18 Skapad: 2010-06-18 Senast uppdaterad: 2022-06-25Bibliografiskt granskad

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