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Early COVID-19 Policies and Their Enduring Impact on Unemployment: Causal Evidence Through 2024
Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.
Xiamen University, Xiamen, China.
Karolinska institutet.
Högskolan i Gävle, Akademin för teknik och miljö, Avdelningen för elektroteknik, matematik och naturvetenskap, Matematik.ORCID-id: 0000-0003-1897-5730
2026 (engelsk)Inngår i: Statistics and Public Policy, E-ISSN 2330-443X, Vol. 13, nr 1, artikkel-id 2685207Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert) Published
Abstract [en]

In this article, we evaluate the lasting impact of the first-wave COVID-19 pandemic policies on unemployment during the post-first-wave period. Specifically, we analyze the causal effects of the Swedish first-wave policies relative to the Norwegian ones on unemployment during the first-wave period (Q2 and Q3 2020, where Q stands for quarter), the post-first-wave period (Q4 2020 and 2021-2024), and the complete period (Q2 2020 - Q4 2024). The Swedish first-wave policies led to an increase of unemployment with an estimate of 506 (95% CI: 406, 607) more unemployment per 100, 000 labor force members during the first-wave period in Sweden. However, the Swedish first-wave policies led to a reduction of unemployment with an estimate of 585 (95% CI: 485, 684) less unemployment during the post-first-wave period in Sweden. Furthermore, the Swedish first-wave policies led to a reduction of unemployment with an estimate of 471 (95% CI: 375, 567) less unemployment during the complete period in Sweden. This provides causal evidence supporting the view that mild first-wave public-health policies helped preserve supply chains and strengthen long-term economic resilience.

sted, utgiver, år, opplag, sider
Taylor & Francis , 2026. Vol. 13, nr 1, artikkel-id 2685207
Emneord [en]
Average treatment effect among treated, Long-term causal effect, Sequential causal effect, Sequential treatment assignment, Unemployment
HSV kategori
Identifikatorer
URN: urn:nbn:se:hig:diva-50719DOI: 10.1080/2330443x.2026.2685207ISI: 001814448400001Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-105044267553OAI: oai:DiVA.org:hig-50719DiVA, id: diva2:2086978
Forskningsfinansiär
Swedish Research Council, 2019-02913Tilgjengelig fra: 2026-07-17 Laget: 2026-07-17 Sist oppdatert: 2026-07-26bibliografisk kontrollert

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