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Visualizing Probabilistic Demographic Predictions in Swedish Municipalities: A Multidimensional Broad Intermediate-term Case Study
KTH, School of Computer Science and Communication (CSC), Media Technology and Interaction Design, MID.
2017 (English)Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (Two Years)), 20 credits / 30 HE creditsStudent thesisAlternative title
Visualisering av probabilistiska befolkningsprognoser i svenska kommuner (Swedish)
Abstract [en]

Understanding the demographics of a municipality and how it changes over time is crucial to the municipal development. This master’s thesis aims to evaluate how interactive Information Visualization can aid civil servants in their work with demographic predictions. Over a period of ten weeks a prototype interface, for visualizing historic- and predicted demographic data, was developed in close cooperation with ten expert users at three different municipalities in Sweden. The dataset consisted of some two million data points. The prototype exemplifies how a generic Information Visualization application can be implemented with a Model View Controller architecture. Development and design was driven by known Information Visualization principles and Human-Computer Interaction heuristics. The initial needs analysis concluded the most essential parameters of the dataset to be age, year and region. In addition to these three parameters emphasis is put on visualizing uncertainty in the predicted data. The study ended with an evaluation of the prototype against the participants’ current practices. The evaluation employed both qualitative and quantitative analysis. On average, the participants performed 4.7 times faster with the prototype. There was no significant difference in success rate. All of the participants claimed that the prototype would make their jobs easier. The impact of the prototype is discussed in terms of improved efficiency, comprehension, communication and exploration of the dataset. Furthermore a list of nine usability issues and six desired features was compiled.

Abstract [sv]

Förståelse för demografin samt hur den utvecklas över tid är kritisk för kommuners planeringsarbete. Detta examensarbete syftar till att utvärdera hur interaktiv informationsvisualisering kan hjälpa kommuntjänstemän i deras arbete med befolkningsprognoser. Under en tioveckorsperiod utvecklades ett gränssnitt för visualisering av historisk och prognostiserad data. Detta skedde i tätt samarbete med tio expertanvändare hos tre olika kommuner i Sverige. Datamängden bestod av cirka två miljoner datapunkter. Prototypen exemplifierar hur en informationsvisualiseringsapplikation kan implementeras med en MVC-arkitektur. Prototypen utvecklades och designades enligt kända principer inom informationsvisualisering och människadator-interaktion. Den inledande behovsanalysen slog fast att de tre mest grundläggande parametrarna var ålder, år samt område. Utöver detta lades stort fokus på att visualisera osäkerheten i prognostiserad data. Studien avslutades med en utvärdering av prototypen i förhållande till användarnas nuvarande arbetsmetoder. Detta skedde med både kvalitativ och kvantitativ analys. Deltagarna presterade i snitt 4.7 gånger snabbare med prototypen. Ingen skillnad av statistisk signifikans kunde observeras gällande lösningsgrad utav uppgifterna. Samtliga deltagare hävdade att prototypen skulle underlätta deras arbete. Prototypens inverkan diskuteras utifrån dess förmåga att förbättra effektivitet, förståelse, kommunikation samt utforskning av data.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2017. , p. 17
National Category
Computer and Information Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-208760OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-208760DiVA, id: diva2:1108200
External cooperation
BizOne
Subject / course
Media Technology
Educational program
Master of Science in Engineering - Media Technology
Supervisors
Examiners
Available from: 2017-10-02 Created: 2017-06-12 Last updated: 2025-02-18Bibliographically approved

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Citation style
  • apa
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Output format
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