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Changes in Hydrological Risk Perception and Implications for Disaster Risk Reduction
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL. Centre of Natural Hazards and Disaster Science.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-4364-4119
2021 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Economic losses caused by hydrological extremes, such as floods and droughts, are exacerbating because of increased anthropogenic activities and global environmental changes. Understanding how individuals and communities interact with hydrological extremes thus becomes fundamental to develop effective strategies for disaster risk reduction. Risk perception plays an important role in determining how individuals and communities respond to the occurrence of an extreme event.  This thesis aims at addressing aspects of risk perception that remain largely unknown. They include: i) how flood risk perceptions change over time, ii) the role of previous experiences, and iii) how the perception of flood risk relates to the perception of other natural hazards, such as droughts. The work is based on survey data collected in different study areas – both in Italy and Sweden at the local and national scales – via longitudinal as well as cross-sectional approaches.  

In relation to the three main objectives, this thesis found that: i) flood risk perceptions evolve differently over time depending on social groups; ii) different types of previous experiences with floods directly influence specific facets of risk perception, with knowledge deriving from the experience also playing an important role; iii) flood risk perception is heavily intertwined with drought risk perception. These results have policy and theoretical implications. Concerning the former, they can inform disaster risk reduction efforts in terms of risk communication and promote an integrated management of hydrological risk. As for the latter, they stress the importance of taking social heterogeneity into account when modelling the interaction between the social and the hydrological spheres, as this can influence the community’s response to extreme events. Fostering human adaptation to climate extremes is a priority. This thesis argues that adaptation can be achieved by promoting the awareness that not only are we at risk, but also that we have the means to address the risk.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Uppsala: Acta Universitatis Upsaliensis, 2021. , p. 88
Series
Digital Comprehensive Summaries of Uppsala Dissertations from the Faculty of Science and Technology, ISSN 1651-6214 ; 2064
Keywords [en]
risk perception, floods, droughts, disaster risk reduction, sociohydrology
National Category
Environmental Sciences Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources Sociology (excluding Social Work, Social Psychology and Social Anthropology)
Research subject
Earth Science with specialization in Environmental Analysis
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-451215ISBN: 978-91-513-1273-6 (print)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-451215DiVA, id: diva2:1587563
Public defence
2021-10-15, Hambergsalen, Geocentrum, Villavägen 16, Uppsala, 10:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Available from: 2021-09-15 Created: 2021-08-25 Last updated: 2021-09-22
List of papers
1. Exploring changes in hydrogeological risk awareness and preparedness over time: a case study in northeastern Italy
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Exploring changes in hydrogeological risk awareness and preparedness over time: a case study in northeastern Italy
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2020 (English)In: Hydrological Sciences Journal, ISSN 0262-6667, E-ISSN 2150-3435, Vol. 65, no 7, p. 1049-1059Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Hydrogeological hazards are increasingly causing damage worldwide due to climatic and socio-economic changes. Building resilient communities is crucial to reduce potential losses. To this end, one of the first steps is to understand how people perceive potential threats around them. This study aims at exploring how risk awareness of, and preparedness to, face hydrological hazards changes over time. A cohort study was carried out in two villages in the northeastern Italian Alps, Romagnano and Vermiglio, affected by debris flows in 2000 and 2002. Surveys were conducted in 2005 and 2018, and the results compared. The survey data show that both awareness and preparedness decreased over time. We attribute this change to the fact that no event had occurred in a long time and to a lack of proper risk communication strategies. The outcomes of this study contribute to socio-hydrological modelling by providing empirical data on human behaviour dynamics.

Keywords
sociohydrology, risk awareness, risk preparedness, debris flow, longitudinal data, hydrogeological hazard
National Category
Sociology (excluding Social Work, Social Psychology and Social Anthropology) Environmental Sciences Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources
Research subject
Sociology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-405297 (URN)10.1080/02626667.2020.1729361 (DOI)000516917100001 ()
Funder
EU, European Research Council, 771678EU, European Research Council, GOCE-CT-2004-505420
Available from: 2020-02-27 Created: 2020-02-27 Last updated: 2021-08-25Bibliographically approved
2. Longitudinal survey data for diversifying temporal dynamics in flood risk modelling
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Longitudinal survey data for diversifying temporal dynamics in flood risk modelling
2021 (English)In: Natural hazards and earth system sciences, ISSN 1561-8633, E-ISSN 1684-9981, Vol. 21, no 9, p. 2811-2828Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Scholars have unravelled the complexities and underlying uncertainties in coupled human and water systems in various fields and disciplines. These complexities, however, are not always reflected in the way in which the dynamics of human–water systems are modelled. One reason is the lack of social data time series, which may be provided by longitudinal surveys. Here, we show the value of collecting longitudinal survey data to enrich sociohydrological modelling of flood risk. To illustrate, we compare and contrast two different approaches (repeated cross-sectional and panel) for collecting longitudinal data and explore changes in flood risk awareness and preparedness in a municipality hit by a flash flood in 2018. We found that risk awareness has not changed significantly in the timeframe under study (1 year). Perceived preparedness increased only among those respondents who suffered low damage during the flood event. We also found gender differences across both approaches for most of the variables explored. Lastly, we argue that results that are consistent across the two approaches can be used for the parametrisation of sociohydrological models. We posit that there is a need to enhance the representation of socio-demographic heterogeneity in modelling human–water systems in order to better support risk management.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Copernicus PublicationsCOPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH, 2021
National Category
Environmental Sciences Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources Sociology (excluding Social Work, Social Psychology and Social Anthropology)
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-451213 (URN)10.5194/nhess-2021-88 (DOI)000695657700001 ()
Funder
European Commission, 771678EU Sixth Framework Programme for Research, GOCE-CT-2004-505420
Available from: 2021-08-24 Created: 2021-08-24 Last updated: 2024-01-15Bibliographically approved
3. The Role of Experience and Different Sources of Knowledge in Shaping Flood Risk Awareness
Open this publication in new window or tab >>The Role of Experience and Different Sources of Knowledge in Shaping Flood Risk Awareness
2020 (English)In: Water, E-ISSN 2073-4441, Vol. 12, no 8, article id 2130Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Understanding what makes people vulnerable to flooding is key in informing the risk management process. Non-structural measures, such as risk communication, can reduce vulnerability by improving flood risk awareness, but they require a deep understanding of which factors influence risk awareness, and how. We analysed and untangled the role of experience with, and knowledge of, floods by conducting a survey in a municipality in North-eastern Italy that was hit by a flash flood in 2018. The results show that previous experience with floods influences risk awareness not only directly, but also indirectly through the knowledge that was gained from that experience. In addition, specific (as opposed to generic) definitions of experience have been found to be better suited for exploring their effects on risk awareness. Based on the literature and on our results, we propose an experience-knowledge typology to help unravel the complex role that these two variables play in shaping flood risk awareness.

Keywords
flooding, natural hazards, risk awareness, sociohydrology
National Category
Peace and Conflict Studies Other Social Sciences not elsewhere specified Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-417159 (URN)10.3390/w12082130 (DOI)000564711200001 ()
Funder
EU, European Research Council, 771678
Available from: 2020-08-14 Created: 2020-08-14 Last updated: 2025-02-20Bibliographically approved
4. Public perceptions of multiple risks during the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy and Sweden
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Public perceptions of multiple risks during the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy and Sweden
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2020 (English)In: Scientific Data, E-ISSN 2052-4463, Vol. 7, article id 434Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Knowing how people perceive multiple risks is essential to the management and promotion of public health and safety. Here we present a dataset based on a survey (N = 4,154) of public risk perception in Italy and Sweden during the COVID-19 pandemic. Both countries were heavily affected by the first wave of infections in Spring 2020, but their governmental responses were very different. As such, the dataset offers unique opportunities to investigate the role of governmental responses in shaping public risk perception. In addition to epidemics, the survey considered indirect effects of COVID-19 (domestic violence, economic crises), as well as global (climate change) and local (wildfires, floods, droughts, earthquakes, terror attacks) threats. The survey examines perceived likelihoods and impacts, individual and authorities' preparedness and knowledge, and socio-demographic indicators. Hence, the resulting dataset has the potential to enable a plethora of analyses on social, cultural and institutional factors influencing the way in which people perceive risk.

National Category
Sociology (excluding Social Work, Social Psychology and Social Anthropology) Peace and Conflict Studies Other Social Sciences not elsewhere specified Environmental Sciences
Research subject
Sociology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-428070 (URN)10.1038/s41597-020-00778-7 (DOI)000599754900001 ()33303742 (PubMedID)
Funder
EU, European Research Council, 771678
Available from: 2020-12-11 Created: 2020-12-11 Last updated: 2025-02-20Bibliographically approved
5. Droughts and Floods: People's Perception of Hydrological Risk
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Droughts and Floods: People's Perception of Hydrological Risk
(English)Manuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Since ancient times, drought and floods have caused enormous damage worldwide. Thus, understanding how people perceive drought and flood risk can help researchers, practitioners, and policymakers assist communities at risk and identify vulnerable areas. With the support of national survey data on risk perception, knowledge, and preparedness in Italy and Sweden, this study shows that the perceptions of drought and flood risk are heavily intertwined. Especially concerning drought, the geographical location of respondents plays an important role in the perception of risk. This may constitute a critical issue, considering that climate change and the intensifying anthropogenic influence on the hydrological cycle may expose to hydrological extremes areas that were previously not considered at risk. These results and their implications bring evidence in favour of an integrated hydrological risk management, to overcome the limitations of focusing risk reduction efforts towards one of the two extremes. 

Keywords
drought, floods, risk perception, preparedness, experience, knowledge, disaster risk reduction, integrated hydrological risk management
National Category
Environmental Sciences Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources Sociology (excluding Social Work, Social Psychology and Social Anthropology)
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-451179 (URN)
Funder
European Commission, 771678
Available from: 2021-08-23 Created: 2021-08-23 Last updated: 2021-09-13Bibliographically approved

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