Heating and cooling account for a substantial share of final energy use and greenhouse gas emissions in Europe. District heating systems play a central role in decarbonising heat supply by enabling the integration of centralised, low-carbon heat sources. However, as fossil fuels and waste incineration are phased out and biomass availability becomes increasingly constrained, district heating systems face growing challenges related to cost, resource availability, and long-term resilience. In this context, industrial and urban excess heat and cold could support a low-carbon, flexible heat supply. Despite significant documented technical potential, excess heat remains poorly integrated into district heating systems due to spatial constraints, temperature mismatches, operational variability, and fragmented decision-making among industrial actors, network operators, and policymakers.
Energy system optimisation models are widely used to support long-term energy planning and policy analysis. However, when applied to excess heat recovery, existing modelling approaches struggle to capture several critical dimensions for decision-making, including spatial feasibility, heat quality, operational behaviour, and uncertainty. At the same time, empirical evidence on how excess heat performs within real district heating systems under different technical and market conditions remains limited. This thesis addresses these gaps by combining real-world case studies with the development of methodological models to support strategic planning for excess-heat recovery in district-heating systems.
The overall aim of this thesis is to develop and apply modelling approaches that enable a comprehensive and robust assessment of the integration of excess heat into district heating systems. The work is structured around three research questions, each addressing a distinct but interconnected aspect of the problem.
The first research question examines how well existing energy system optimisation models meet the analytical needs of decision-makers involved in excess heat recovery planning. Through a structured review of modelling tools and an assessment of stakeholder requirements, the thesis shows that while current models provide robust representations of technology costs, energy balances, and long-term investment dynamics, they fall short in representing spatial variation, heat quality, and operational constraints. These limitations are particularly problematic for excess heat recovery, where feasibility and value depend strongly on distance to demand, temperature levels, and temporal stability of supply. The analysis further highlights that limited flexibility and transparency in many models reduce their usefulness for stakeholder engagement. This research question establishes the need for modelling approaches that go beyond single-model optimisation and motivates the development of a multi-model framework.
The second research question investigates how a multi-model framework can improve the analysis of excess heat integration into district heating systems. To address this question, the thesis develops a modular multi-model framework that links exergy analysis, spatial least-cost network optimisation, long-term techno-economic optimisation, and high-resolution operational validation. The framework is implemented using iterative soft linking between models, ensuring that spatial feasibility, heat quality, and operational constraints are consistently reflected in long-term investment planning. The framework is applied to both a new district heating system and a large existing system. The results show that spatial proximity and source temperature strongly influence early investment decisions, while electricity prices and competition with existing technologies shape excess heat uptake in mature systems. Operational validation reveals differences between long-term investment pathways and short-term utilisation patterns, highlighting the importance of thermal storage and flexible operation in aligning planning and operation.
The third research question explores how district heating systems can be planned and adapted to remain resilient amid long-term uncertainty, systemic risks, and external shocks. To address this question, the thesis develops a stochastic–clustering–resilience framework that combines uncertainty sampling with long-term optimisation and post-processing analysis. This approach enables the identification of representative investment pathways and the evaluation of their performance across a wide range of future conditions. The results show that systems with diversified, flexible technology portfolios that combine excess heat recovery with electrification options such as heat pumps, electric boilers, and thermal storage perform best in terms of cost, emissions, and robustness. In contrast, systems that rely heavily on combustion-based technologies are more sensitive to fuel price volatility, policy changes, and supply disruptions.
Across all research questions and case studies, the modelling results demonstrate that excess heat can contribute significantly to cost-effective, low-carbon district heating systems, but only when spatial, thermal, operational, and uncertainty-related factors are jointly considered. Excess heat delivers the greatest system value when evaluated as part of a flexible and diversified technology portfolio rather than as a stand-alone resource.
The contributions of this thesis are twofold. First, it provides insights from multiple real-world district heating case studies, clarifying when and how industrial and urban excess heat can be effectively integrated under varying spatial, technical, and policy conditions. Second, it advances methodological approaches to excess heat modelling by developing a coherent multi-model framework that links industrial-, network-, and system-level perspectives. By integrating spatial, exergy, techno-economic, operational, and uncertainty analyses within a transparent and extensible workflow, the thesis provides improved decision support for planners, district heating operators, and policymakers. It contributes to a deeper understanding of how flexibility and adaptability, rather than single-technology optimisation, underpin resilient and sustainable transitions in district heating systems.