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  • 1. Abbott, Benjamin W.
    et al.
    Jones, Jeremy B.
    Schuur, Edward A. G.
    Chapin, F. Stuart, III
    Bowden, William B.
    Bret-Harte, M. Syndonia
    Epstein, Howard E.
    Flannigan, Michael D.
    Harms, Tamara K.
    Hollingsworth, Teresa N.
    Mack, Michelle C.
    McGuire, A. David
    Natali, Susan M.
    Rocha, Adrian V.
    Tank, Suzanne E.
    Turetsky, Merritt R.
    Vonk, Jorien E.
    Wickland, Kimberly P.
    Aiken, George R.
    Alexander, Heather D.
    Amon, Rainer M. W.
    Benscoter, Brian W.
    Bergeron, Yves
    Bishop, Kevin
    Blarquez, Olivier
    Bond-Lamberty, Ben
    Breen, Amy L.
    Buffam, Ishi
    Cai, Yihua
    Carcaillet, Christopher
    Carey, Sean K.
    Chen, Jing M.
    Chen, Han Y. H.
    Christensen, Torben R.
    Cooper, Lee W.
    Cornelissen, J. Hans C.
    de Groot, William J.
    DeLuca, Thomas H.
    Dorrepaal, Ellen
    Umeå University, Faculty of Science and Technology, Department of Ecology and Environmental Sciences.
    Fetcher, Ned
    Finlay, Jacques C.
    Forbes, Bruce C.
    French, Nancy H. F.
    Gauthier, Sylvie
    Girardin, Martin P.
    Goetz, Scott J.
    Goldammer, Johann G.
    Gough, Laura
    Grogan, Paul
    Guo, Laodong
    Higuera, Philip E.
    Hinzman, Larry
    Hu, Feng Sheng
    Hugelius, Gustaf
    Jafarov, Elchin E.
    Jandt, Randi
    Johnstone, Jill F.
    Karlsson, Jan
    Umeå University, Faculty of Science and Technology, Department of Ecology and Environmental Sciences.
    Kasischke, Eric S.
    Kattner, Gerhard
    Kelly, Ryan
    Keuper, Frida
    Umeå University, Faculty of Science and Technology, Department of Ecology and Environmental Sciences.
    Kling, George W.
    Kortelainen, Pirkko
    Kouki, Jari
    Kuhry, Peter
    Laudon, Hjalmar
    Laurion, Isabelle
    Macdonald, Robie W.
    Mann, Paul J.
    Martikainen, Pertti J.
    McClelland, James W.
    Molau, Ulf
    Oberbauer, Steven F.
    Olefeldt, David
    Pare, David
    Parisien, Marc-Andre
    Payette, Serge
    Peng, Changhui
    Pokrovsky, Oleg S.
    Rastetter, Edward B.
    Raymond, Peter A.
    Raynolds, Martha K.
    Rein, Guillermo
    Reynolds, James F.
    Robards, Martin
    Rogers, Brendan M.
    Schaedel, Christina
    Schaefer, Kevin
    Schmidt, Inger K.
    Shvidenko, Anatoly
    Sky, Jasper
    Spencer, Robert G. M.
    Starr, Gregory
    Striegl, Robert G.
    Teisserenc, Roman
    Tranvik, Lars J.
    Virtanen, Tarmo
    Welker, Jeffrey M.
    Zimov, Sergei
    Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire: an expert assessment2016In: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 11, no 3, 034014Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimates of net carbon balance increases the risk of further overshooting international emissions targets. Precise empirical or model-based assessments of the critical factors driving carbon balance are unlikely in the near future, so to address this gap, we present estimates from 98 permafrost-region experts of the response of biomass, wildfire, and hydrologic carbon flux to climate change. Results suggest that contrary to model projections, total permafrost-region biomass could decrease due to water stress and disturbance, factors that are not adequately incorporated in current models. Assessments indicate that end-of-the-century organic carbon release from Arctic rivers and collapsing coastlines could increase by 75% while carbon loss via burning could increase four-fold. Experts identified water balance, shifts in vegetation community, and permafrost degradation as the key sources of uncertainty in predicting future system response. In combination with previous findings, results suggest the permafrost region will become a carbon source to the atmosphere by 2100 regardless of warming scenario but that 65%-85% of permafrost carbon release can still be avoided if human emissions are actively reduced.

  • 2.
    Acaralp, Damla
    Södertörn University, Teacher Education.
    Hållbar utveckling i undervisningen: En kvalitativ studie om lärare och lärarstudenters syn på hållbar utveckling i undervisningen2015Independent thesis Basic level (university diploma), 10 credits / 15 HE creditsStudent thesis
    Abstract [en]

    The issue for this study is how teachers and teacher students understand the concept of sustainable development and work and want to work with sustainable development in their education. The aim is to provide knowledge that can lead to a better implementation of sustainable development in education. The study has a phenomenological perspective and is based on the concept of sustainable development and theories of education for sustainable development. The study consists of interviews with four teachers who act as primary teachers and four teacher students who study on the last semester of their education. The study shows that all respondents think that sustainable development is a concept that is difficult to interpret and that they have a distorted interpretation of the concept. All are focusing on environmental protection and overlook economic and social development. That is particularly apparent in their examples of how sustainable development should be implemented in teaching. The study also shows that the teacher students have a more complete picture of the concept of sustainable development and, unlike the teachers, explicitly states that sustainable development should permeate the entire teaching.

  • 3.
    Acosta Navarro, Juan Camilo
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Environmental Science and Analytical Chemistry.
    Anthropogenic influence on climate through changes in aerosol emissions from air pollution and land use change2017Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Particulate matter suspended in air (i.e. aerosol particles) exerts a substantial influence on the climate of our planet and is responsible for causing severe public health problems in many regions across the globe. Human activities have altered the natural and anthropogenic emissions of aerosol particles through direct emissions or indirectly by modifying natural sources. The climate effects of the latter have been largely overlooked. Humans have dramatically altered the land surface of the planet causing changes in natural aerosol emissions from vegetated areas. Regulation on anthropogenic and natural aerosol emissions have the potential to affect the climate on regional to global scales. Furthermore, the regional climate effects of aerosol particles could potentially be very different than the ones caused by other climate forcers (e.g. well mixed greenhouse gases). The main objective of this work was to investigate the climatic effects of land use and air pollution via aerosol changes.

    Using numerical model simulations it was found that land use changes in the past millennium have likely caused a positive radiative forcing via aerosol climate interactions. The forcing is an order of magnitude smaller and has an opposite sign than the radiative forcing caused by direct aerosol emissions changes from other human activities. The results also indicate that future reductions of fossil fuel aerosols via air quality regulations may lead to an additional warming of the planet by mid-21st century and could also cause an important Arctic amplification of the warming. In addition, the mean position of the intertropical convergence zone and the Asian monsoon appear to be sensitive to aerosol emission reductions from air quality regulations. For these reasons, climate mitigation policies should take into consideration aerosol air pollution, which has not received sufficient attention in the past.

  • 4.
    Acosta Navarro, Juan Camilo
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Environmental Science and Analytical Chemistry.
    Historical anthropogenic radiative forcing of changes in biogenic secondary organic aerosol2015Licentiate thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Human activities have lead to changes in the energy balance of the Earth and the global climate. Changes in atmospheric aerosols are the second largest contributor to climate change after greenhouse gases since 1750 A.D. Land-use practices and other environmental drivers have caused changes in the emission of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) and secondary organic aerosol (SOA) well before 1750 A.D, possibly causing climate effects through aerosol-radiation and aerosol-cloud interactions. Two numerical emission models LPJ-GUESS and MEGAN were used to quantify the changes in aerosol forming BVOC emissions in the past millennium. A chemical transport model of the atmosphere (GEOS-Chem-TOMAS) was driven with those BVOC emissions to quantify the effects on radiation caused by millennial changes in SOA.

    The specific objectives of this licentiate thesis are: 1) to understand what drove the changes in aerosol-forming BVOC emissions (i.e. isoprene, monoterpenes and sesquiterpenes) and to quantify these changes; 2) to calculate for the first time the combined historical aerosol direct and aerosol-cloud albedo effects on radiation from changing BVOC emissions through SOA formation; 3) to investigate how important the biological climate feedback associated to BVOC emissions and SOA formation is from a global climate perspective.

    We find that global isoprene emissions decreased after 1800 A.D. by about 12% - 15%. This decrease was dominated by losses of natural vegetation, whereas monoterpene and sesquiterpene emissions increased by about 2% - 10%, driven mostly by rising surface air temperatures. From 1000 A.D. to 1800 A.D, isoprene, monoterpene and sesquiterpene emissions decline by 3% - 8% driven by both, natural vegetation losses, and the moderate global cooling between the medieval climate anomaly and the little ice age. The millennial reduction in BVOC emissions lead to a 0.5% to 2% reduction in climatically relevant aerosol particles (> 80 nm) and cause a direct radiative forcing between +0.02 W/m² and +0.07 W/m², and an indirect radiative forcing between -0.02 W/m² and +0.02 W/m². The suggested biological climate feedback seems to be too small to have observable consequences on the global climate in the recent past.

  • 5. Adrian, Rita
    et al.
    O`Reilly, Catherine M.
    Zagarese, Horacio
    Baines, Stephen B.
    Hessen, Dag O.
    Keller, Wendel
    Livingstone, David M.
    Sommaruga, Ruben
    Straile, Dietmar
    Van Donk, Ellen
    Weyhenmeyer, Gesa A.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Biology, Department of Ecology and Evolution, Limnology.
    Winder, Monika
    Lakes as sentinels of climate change2009In: Limnology and Oceanography, ISSN 0024-3590, Vol. 54, no 6(2), 2283-2297 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    While there is a general sense that lakes can act as sentinels of climate change, their efficacy has not been thoroughly analyzed. We identified the key response variables within a lake that act as indicators of the effects of climate change on both the lake and the catchment. These variables reflect a wide range of physical, chemical, and biological responses to climate. However, the efficacy of the different indicators is affected by regional response to climate change, characteristics of the catchment, and lake mixing regimes. Thus, particular indicators or combinations of indicators are more effective for different lake types and geographic regions. The extraction of climate signals can be further complicated by the influence of other environmental changes, such as eutrophication or acidification, and the equivalent reverse phenomena, in addition to other land-use influences. In many cases, however, confounding factors can be addressed through analytical tools such as detrending or filtering. Lakes are effective sentinels for climate change because they are sensitive to climate, respond rapidly to change, and integrate information about changes in the catchment.

  • 6.
    Ahlberg, Per Erik
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Biology, Department of Physiology and Developmental Biology, Evolutionary Organism Biology.
    Sky konspiratörernas dimma - I: Uppsala Nya Tidning (UNT), 27 dec2008Other (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
  • 7.
    Ahmed, Moinuddin
    et al.
    Fed Urdu Univ Arts Sci & Technol, Dept Bot, Karachi 75300, Pakistan.
    Krusic, Paul J.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Charpentier Ljungqvist, Fredrik
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Humanities, Department of History.
    Zorita, Eduardo
    PAGES 2k Consortium,
    Continental-scale temperature variability during the past two millennia2013In: Nature Geoscience, ISSN 1752-0894, Vol. 6, no 5, 339-346 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Past global climate changes had strong regional expression. To elucidate their spatio-temporal pattern, we reconstructed past temperatures for seven continental-scale regions during the past one to two millennia. The most coherent feature in nearly all of the regional temperature reconstructions is a long-term cooling trend, which ended late in the nineteenth century. At multi-decadal to centennial scales, temperature variability shows distinctly different regional patterns, with more similarity within each hemisphere than between them. There were no globally synchronous multi-decadal warm or cold intervals that define a worldwide Medieval Warm Period or Little Ice Age, but all reconstructions show generally cold conditions between ad 1580 and 1880, punctuated in some regions by warm decades during the eighteenth century. The transition to these colder conditions occurred earlier in the Arctic, Europe and Asia than in North America or the Southern Hemisphere regions. Recent warming reversed the long-term cooling; during the period ad 1971–2000, the area-weighted average reconstructed temperature was higher than any other time in nearly 1,400 years.

  • 8.
    Alatalo, Juha M
    et al.
    Qatar University.
    Jägerbrand, Annika K
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Environment.
    Molau, Ulf
    Göteborgs Universitet.
    Impacts of different climate change regimes and extreme climatic events on an alpine meadow community2016In: Scientific Reports, ISSN 2045-2322, E-ISSN 2045-2322, Vol. 6, 21720Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Climate variability is expected to increase in future but there exist very few experimental studies that apply different warming regimes on plant communities over several years. We studied an alpine meadow community under three warming regimes over three years. Treatments consisted of (a) a constant level of warming with open-top chambers (ca. 1.9 °C above ambient), (b) yearly stepwise increases in warming (increases of ca. 1.0, 1.9 and 3.5 °C), and (c) pulse warming, a single first-year pulse event of warming (increase of ca. 3.5 °C). Pulse warming and stepwise warming was hypothesised to cause distinct first-year and third-year effects, respectively. We found support for both hypotheses; however, the responses varied among measurement levels (whole community, canopy, bottom layer, and plant functional groups), treatments, and time. Our study revealed complex responses of the alpine plant community to the different experimentally imposed climate warming regimes. Plant cover, height and biomass frequently responded distinctly to the constant level of warming, the stepwise increase in warming and the extreme pulse-warming event. Notably, we found that stepwise warming had an accumulating effect on biomass, the responses to the different warming regimes varied among functional groups, and the short-term perturbations had negative effect on species richness and diversity.

  • 9.
    Albihn, Ann
    et al.
    National Veterinary Institute, Uppsala, Sweden.
    Gustafsson, Hans
    Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences.
    O’Hara Ruiz, Marilyn
    University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.
    38. Preparing for Climate Change2012In: Ecology and Animal Health / [ed] Leif Norrgren and Jeffrey Levengood, Uppsala: Baltic University Press , 2012, 1, 311-328 p.Chapter in book (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
  • 10.
    Alexandersson, Hans
    et al.
    SMHI.
    Moberg, A
    Homogenization of Swedish temperature data .1. Homogeneity test for linear trends1997In: International Journal of Climatology, ISSN 0899-8418, E-ISSN 1097-0088, Vol. 17, no 1, 25-34 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    A new test for the detection of linear trends of arbitrary length in normally distributed time series is developed. With this test it is possible to detect and estimate gradual changes of the mean value in a candidate series compared with a homogeneous reference series. The test is intended for studies of artificial relative trends in climatological time series, e.g. an increasing urban heat island effect. The basic structure of the new test is similar to that of a widely used test for abrupt changes, the standard normal homogeneity test. The test for abrupt changes is found to remain unaltered after an important generalization.

  • 11.
    Alexandersson, Hans
    et al.
    SMHI.
    Tuomenvirta, H
    Schmith, T
    Iden, K
    Trends of storms in NW Europe derived from an updated pressure data set2000In: Climate Research (CR), ISSN 0936-577X, E-ISSN 1616-1572, Vol. 14, no 1, 71-73 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Within the WASA project (von Storch et al. 1998; Bull Am Meterol Soc 79(5):741-760) an extensive data set containing station pressure values was used to calculate geostrophic winds (Alexandersson et al. 1998; Global Atmos Ocean Syst 6:97-120). Geostrophic winds were analysed in terms of percentiles to give a measure of long-term variations in synoptic-scale storminess. In this paper an update to 1998 is presented. In the Scandinavia, Finland and Baltic Sea area the most recent years, especially the cold and calm year 1996, seem to have brought an end to the stormy period centred on 1990. In the more westerly British Isles, North Sea and Norwegian Sea area, storminess is still at high levels compared with the less intense period between 1930 and 1980. The long-term increasing trend in NW Europe storminess that started in the 1960s seems to have been broken.

  • 12. Alfieri, Lorenzo
    et al.
    Bisselink, Berny
    Dottori, Francesco
    Naumann, Gustavo
    de Roo, Ad
    Salamon, Peter
    Wyser, Klaus
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Feyen, Luc
    Global projections of river flood risk in a warmer world2017In: Earth's Future, ISSN 1384-5160, E-ISSN 2328-4277, Vol. 5, no 2, 171-182 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 13.
    Almssad, Asaad
    et al.
    Karlstad University, Faculty of Health, Science and Technology (starting 2013), Department of Engineering and Chemical Sciences.
    Almusaed, Amjad
    Albasrah University, Albasrah, Iraq.
    Environmental reply to vernacular habitat conformation from a vast areas of Scandinavia2015In: Renewable & sustainable energy reviews, ISSN 1364-0321, E-ISSN 1879-0690, Vol. 48, 825-834 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    There are many original ideas and useful system inputs embedded in the building of human settlements in Scandinavian regions, where the landscape and habitat are strongly interconnected. A cold climate and strong winds are the most prominent risks that affect habitats. The Longhouse is the foremost traditional habitat in the Scandinavian region, dating back to the Iron Age, 2000 BC. This study examines the influence of climate on the conformation of habitats. Climate had a solid impact on the conceptions of habitat form and internal space. Wind and extreme temperatures had firming consequences on the housing arrangements, layouts, orientations, and building materials used in the construction process. Habitats from this region were located in an optimal arrangement, and the south orientation was used effectively. This investigation will provide an evaluative interpretation and analysis of the real facts of vernacular habitats in the context of energy efficiency and ecological concepts, considering human settlement patterns, architectural creation and building material uses. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  • 14. Ampel, Linda
    et al.
    Bigler, Christian
    Umeå University, Faculty of Science and Technology, Department of Ecology and Environmental Sciences.
    Wohlfarth, Barbara
    Risberg, Jan
    Lotter, André F
    Veres, Daniel
    Modest summer temperature variability during DO cycles in western Europe2010In: Quaternary Science Reviews, ISSN 0277-3791, E-ISSN 1873-457X, Vol. 29, no 11/12, 1322-1327 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Abrupt climatic shifts between cold stadials and warm interstadials, termed Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) cycles, occurred frequently during the Last Glacial. Their imprint is registered in paleorecords worldwide, but little is known about the actual temperature change both annually and seasonally in different regions. A recent hypothesis based on modelling studies, suggests that DO cycles were characterised by distinct changes in seasonality in the Northern Hemisphere. The largest temperature change between stadial and interstadial phases would have occurred during the winter and spring seasons, whereas the summer seasons would have experienced a rather muted temperature shift. Here we present a temporally high-resolved reconstruction of summer temperatures for eastern France during a sequence of DO cycles between 36 and 18 thousand years before present. The reconstruction is based on fossil diatom assemblages from the paleolake Les Echets and indicates summer temperature changes of ca 0.5–2 °C between stadials and interstadials. This study is the first to reconstruct temperatures with a sufficient time resolution to investigate DO climate variability in continental Europe. It is therefore also the first proxy record that can test and support the hypothesis that temperature changes during DO cycles were modest during the summer season.

  • 15.
    Ampel, Linda
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Geological Sciences.
    Wohlfarth, Barbara
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Geological Sciences.
    Risberg, Jan
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology (INK).
    Veres, Daniel
    Leng, Melanie
    Kaislahti Tillman, Päivi
    Diatom assemblage dynamics during abrupt climate change: The response oflacustrine diatoms to Dansgaard-Oeschger cycles during the last glacialperiod2010In: Journal of Paleolimnology, ISSN 0921-2728, E-ISSN 1573-0417, Vol. 44, no 2, 397-404 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The sedimentary record from the paleolake at Les Echets in eastern France allowed a reconstruction of the lacustrine response to several abrupt climate shifts during the last glacial period referred to as Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) cycles. The high-resolution diatom stratigraphy has revealed distinct species turnover events and large fluctuations in stable oxygen isotope values in diatom frustules, as a response to DO climate variability. More or less identical species compositions became re-established during each DO stadial and interstadial phases, respectively. However, the relative abundance of the most dominant species within these assemblages varies and might indicate differences in climatic conditions. Interstadial phases are characterized by identical species successions. Transitions from stadial to interstadial conditions show a distinct Fragilaria-Cyclotella succession, which resembles the diatom regime shifts that have been recognized in some lakes in the Northern Hemisphere since the mid-nineteenth century.

  • 16. Anderson, C J
    et al.
    Arritt, R W
    Takle, E S
    Pan, Z T
    Gutowski, W J
    Otieno, F O
    da Silva, R
    Caya, D
    Christensen, J H
    Luthi, D
    Gaertner, M A
    Gallardo, C
    Giorgi, F
    Hong, S Y
    Jones, Colin
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Juang, H M H
    Katzfey, J J
    Lapenta, W M
    Laprise, R
    Larson, J W
    Liston, G E
    McGregor, J L
    Pielke, R A
    Roads, J O
    Taylor, J A
    Hydrological processes in regional climate model simulations of the central United States flood of June-July 19932003In: Journal of Hydrometeorology, ISSN 1525-755X, Vol. 4, no 3, 584-598 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Thirteen regional climate model(RCM) simulations of June - July 1993 were compared with each other and observations. Water vapor conservation and precipitation characteristics in each RCM were examined for a 108 x 10degrees subregion of the upper Mississippi River basin, containing the region of maximum 60-day accumulated precipitation in all RCMs and station reports. All RCMs produced positive precipitation minus evapotranspiration ( P - E > 0), though most RCMs produced P - E below the observed range. RCM recycling ratios were within the range estimated from observations. No evidence of common errors of E was found. In contrast, common dry bias of P was found in the simulations. Daily cycles of terms in the water vapor conservation equation were qualitatively similar in most RCMs. Nocturnal maximums of P and C ( convergence) occurred in 9 of 13 RCMs, consistent with observations. Three of the four driest simulations failed to couple P and C overnight, producing afternoon maximum P. Further, dry simulations tended to produce a larger fraction of their 60-day accumulated precipitation from low 3-h totals. In station reports, accumulation from high ( low) 3-h totals had a nocturnal ( early morning) maximum. This time lag occurred, in part, because many mesoscale convective systems had reached peak intensity overnight and had declined in intensity by early morning. None of the RCMs contained such a time lag. It is recommended that short-period experiments be performed to examine the ability of RCMs to simulate mesoscale convective systems prior to generating long-period simulations for hydroclimatology.

  • 17.
    Andersson, Agneta
    et al.
    Umeå University.
    Meier, H. E. Markus
    Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute.
    Ripszam, Matyas
    Umeå University.
    Rowe, Owen
    Umeå University.
    Wikner, Johan
    Umeå university.
    Haglund, Peter
    Umeå University.
    Eilola, Kari
    Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute.
    Legrand, Catherine
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Department of Biology and Environmental Science.
    Figueroa, Daniela
    Umeå University.
    Paczkowska, Joanna
    Umeå University.
    Lindehoff, Elin
    Linnaeus University, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Department of Biology and Environmental Science.
    Tysklind, Mats
    Umeå University.
    Elmgren, Ragnar
    Department of Ecology.
    Projected future climate change and Baltic Sea ecosystem management2015In: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, E-ISSN 1654-7209, Vol. 44, no Supplement 3, S345-S356 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Climate change is likely to have large effects on the Baltic Sea ecosystem. Simulations indicate 2-4 degrees C warming and 50-80 % decrease in ice cover by 2100. Precipitation may increase similar to 30 % in the north, causing increased land runoff of allochthonous organic matter (AOM) and organic pollutants and decreased salinity. Coupled physical-biogeochemical models indicate that, in the south, bottom-water anoxia may spread, reducing cod recruitment and increasing sediment phosphorus release, thus promoting cyanobacterial blooms. In the north, heterotrophic bacteria will be favored by AOM, while phytoplankton production may be reduced. Extra trophic levels in the food web may increase energy losses and consequently reduce fish production. Future management of the Baltic Sea must consider the effects of climate change on the ecosystem dynamics and functions, as well as the effects of anthropogenic nutrient and pollutant load. Monitoring should have a holistic approach, encompassing both autotrophic (phytoplankton) and heterotrophic (e.g., bacterial) processes.

  • 18.
    Andersson, Lotta
    et al.
    Linköping University, The Tema Institute, Tema Environmental Change. Linköping University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences.
    Bohman, Anna
    Linköping University, The Tema Institute, Tema Environmental Change. Linköping University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences.
    Van Well, Lisa
    School of Architecture and the Built Environment, KTH - Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm.
    Jonsson, Anna
    Linköping University, The Tema Institute, Tema Environmental Change. Linköping University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences. Management & Organisation/Centre for International Business Studies, University of Gothenburg, Sweden.
    Persson, Gunn
    Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, SMHI, Norrköping, Sweden.
    Farelius, Johanna
    Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, SMHI, Norrköping, Sweden.
    Underlag till kontrollstation 2015 för anpassning till ett förändrat klimat2015Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    As the climate changes, actors on all levels and in all sectors will be affected. Thus it is imperative that authorities, municipalities, businesses and individual property owners all take action.

    Flooding, heat waves, landslides and erosion are only a few examples of the challenges that that society faces and needs to prepare for. Sweden must adapt to the impacts of a changing climate, as well as the indirect effects of climate change impacts in other parts of the world.

    The costs of adaptation can be high, but the European Commission, among others, has deemed that it still pays to adapt in relation to the costs incurred if no action is taken.

    Climate adaptation initiatives in Sweden have advanced significantly in recent years. Notable examples include governmental missions for a national elevation database, landslide risk mapping in the Göta Älv River Valley, the Swedish drinking water investigation, the County Administrative Boards’ regional climate change action plans, and the establishment of the National Knowledge Centre for Climate Adaptation.

    The Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute’s mission to survey, analyse and follow-up on climate adaptation work in Sweden has shown that there is still a considerable need for further measures. This report provides proposals for a road map for climate adaptation in Sweden and concludes that climate adaptation is best conducted in a long-term manner, that roles and responsibilities should be made more transparent, and that better coordination among the many actors involved in climate adaptation is necessary.

    The most important conclusions for continued work are:

    • Laws and regulations need to be adapted; roles and responsibilities as well as strategies and goals should be made clearer.
    • Priority and funding should be given to research and development measures that fill an identified knowledge-gap, including long-term monitoring.
    • Knowledge and decision support as well as prognoses and warning systems should be more accessible.
    • There is a need to outline how the costs of adaptation should be distributed among actors and how resources for prioritised measures can be guaranteed.

    This mission has compiled knowledge of the current and future risks and consequences for society of a changing climate, such as effects on vital societal functions and human health. The mission has also surveyed the work that has been done since the publication of the final report of the Swedish Commission on Climate and Vulnerability in 2007. From this background material our goal has been to describe the gaps and challenges and provide suggestions for how adaptation can be approached in various sectors of society. The EU Strategy on Adaptation to Climate Change has been an important point of departure. The work has been performed in cooperation with national and regional authorities, municipalities, researchers, sectoral organisations and representatives of the private sector.

    This report is comprised of a main report and 18 annexes. Chapter 3 of the main report is a synthesis of all of the proposals made throughout the document and as such can be seen as a road map to ensure that Sweden adapts to a changing climate.

  • 19.
    Andersson, Lotta
    et al.
    Linköping University, The Tema Institute, Centre for Climate Science and Policy Research . Linköping University, The Tema Institute, Department of Water and Environmental Studies.
    Hellström, Sara-Sofia
    SMHI.
    Kjellström, Erik
    SMHI.
    Losjö, Katarina
    SMHI.
    Rummukainen, Marku
    SMHI.
    Samuelsson, Patrick
    SMHI.
    Wilk, Julie
    Linköping University, The Tema Institute, Centre for Climate Science and Policy Research . Linköping University, The Tema Institute, Department of Water and Environmental Studies. Linköping University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences.
    Modeling report: Climate change impacts on water resources in the Pungwe drainage basin2006Report (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
  • 20.
    Andersson, Lotta
    et al.
    Linköping University, The Tema Institute, Centre for Climate Science and Policy Research . Linköping University, The Tema Institute, Department of Water and Environmental Studies. Linköping University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences. Statens Meteorologiska och Hydrologiska Institut.
    Hjerpe, Mattias
    Linköping University, The Tema Institute, Centre for Climate Science and Policy Research . Linköping University, The Tema Institute, Department of Water and Environmental Studies. Linköping University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences.
    Alberth, Johan
    Linköping University, The Tema Institute, Department of Water and Environmental Studies. Linköping University, The Tema Institute, Centre for Climate Science and Policy Research . Linköping University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences.
    The Vulnerability Assessment Concept: A Tool for Prioritization of the Most Relevant Issues for Macro-regional Cooperation2013Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    This report aims at identifying potential issues for collaboration related to climate adaptation through application of a tool for assessing macro-regional risks. The tool is intended to assist decision-makers and other stakeholders in the Baltic Sea Region (BSR) in discussions on how climate adaptation related cooperation would benefit most from macro-regional cooperation. It is based on four criteria: 1) confidence, 2) speed (determined by Baltadapt climate modellers), 3) importance of impacts and 4) macro-regional coverage (based on a questionnaires answered by 3-8 stakeholders from each of the nine riparian BSR states). Based on equal weighting of these factors, impacts related to biodiversity/eutrophication of the Baltic Sea, as well and impacts related to agriculture were given the highest rankings, which demonstrates the importance to include these sectors and their interrelationship as an important focus in macro-regional cooperation on climate adaptation in the BSR. Impacts  related to biodiversity and agriculture have in common that they are caused by climate change that will occur or already has occurred with a high degree of certainty (e.g., linked to air and water temperatures and rising sea levels), as well as having a very large macro-regional spatial coverage, and being perceived as of high societal and/or environmental concern.

  • 21.
    Andersson, Lotta
    et al.
    Linköping University, The Tema Institute, Centre for Climate Science and Policy Research . Linköping University, The Tema Institute, Department of Water and Environmental Studies. Linköping University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences.
    Wilk, Julie
    Linköping University, The Tema Institute, Centre for Climate Science and Policy Research . Linköping University, The Tema Institute, Department of Water and Environmental Studies. Linköping University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences.
    Graham, Phil
    n/a.
    Warburton, Michele
    n/a.
    Local assessment of vulnerability to climate change impacts on water resources in the Upper Thukela River Basin, South Africa: Recommendations for Adaptation2009Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    This report originates from a project entitled Participatory Modelling for Assessment of Local Impacts of Climate Variability and Change on Water Resources (PAMO), financed by the Swedish Development Agency and Research Links cooperation (NRF and the Swedish Research Council).

    The project is based on interactions between stakeholders in the Mhlwazini/Bergville area of the Thukela River basin, climate and water researchers from the University of KwaZulu-Natal (Pietermaritzburg Campus) and the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) during a series of workshops held in 2007-2009. Between the workshops, the researcher’s compiled locally relevant climate change related information, based on requests from the workshop participants, as a basis for this adaptation plan.

    The aim is to provide a local assessment of vulnerability to climate change impacts on water resources and adaptation strategies. The assessment identifies existing climate-water related problems, current adaptation strategies and recommendations for future action based on likelihoods for change and the severity if such changes will occur.

  • 22.
    Andersson, Magnus
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala Centre for Sustainable Development, CSD Uppsala, The Baltic University Programme.
    Tol, Richard S.J.
    Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg.
    Graham, L. Phil
    Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute.
    Bergström, Sten
    Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute.
    Rydén, Lars
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala Centre for Sustainable Development, CSD Uppsala, The Baltic University Programme.
    Azar, Christian
    University of Gothenburg.
    10. Impacts on the Global Atmosphere: Climate Change and Ozone Depletion2003In: Environmental Science: Understanding, protecting and managing the environment in the Baltic Sea Region / [ed] Lars Rydén, Pawel Migula and Magnus Andersson, Uppsala: Baltic University Press , 2003, 1, 294-323 p.Chapter in book (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
  • 23.
    Andersson-Skold, Yvonne
    et al.
    Statens geotekniska institut.
    Falemo, Stefan
    Statens geotekniska institut.
    Suer, Pascal
    Statens geotekniska institut.
    Grahn, Tonje
    Karlstad University, Faculty of Social and Life Sciences, Centre for Climate and Safety.
    Landslide risk and climate change - economic assessment of consequenses in the Göta river valley2011In: / [ed] Anagnostopoulos, A., Pachakis, M., Tsatsanifos, C., Amsterdam, 2011, 1313-1318 p.Conference paper (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    According to climate change scenarios, Swedish summers will be drier, but in large parts of Sweden there will also be increased annual precipitation, more intensive precipitation and periods with increased water flows. In many areas the risk for landslides is expected to increase. In response to this the SGI, on commission of the Environmental ministry, has started a risk analysis for the Göta river valley. The results of the analysis will be used in the surveillance of the safety along the Göta river valley. The valley is one of the most frequent landslide valleys in Sweden. The area has a long history of anthropogenic activities such as settlements, shipping, industry, contaminated soil and infrastructure including large roads and railroads. A number of landslides occur every year. The landslide risk analysis of Göta river valley is performed by traditional technical risk analysis, i.e. a function of hazard probability and consequences of the hazard. Elements at risk in the valley include for example, human life, transport and other infrastructure, properties and industrial activities, contaminated land, agriculture and forestry, and intangibles such as biodiversity. Exposure, vulnerability and the monetary value related to the landslide are used to describe the consequence of the landslide. This paper shows the process and structure of this consequence analysis for natural hazards. The consequence analysis methodology can be applied generic both nationally and internationally and for several types of natural hazards such as landslides and flooding.

  • 24.
    Andersson-Sköld, Yvonne
    et al.
    Statens geotekniska institut.
    Falemo, Stefan
    Statens geotekniska institut.
    Suer, Pascal
    Statens geotekniska institut.
    Grahn, Tonje
    Karlstads universitet.
    Landslide risk and climate change: economic assessment of consequenses in the Göta river valley2011Conference paper (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    According to climate change scenarios, Swedish summers will be drier, but in large parts of Sweden there will also be increased annual precipitation, more intensive precipitation and periods with increased water flows. In many areas the risk for landslides is expected to increase. In response to this the SGI, on commission of the Environmental ministry, has started a risk analysis for the Göta river valley. The results of the analysis will be used in the surveillance of the safety along the Göta river valley. The valley is one of the most frequent landslide valleys in Sweden.

    The area has a long history of anthropogenic activities such as settlements, shipping, industry, contaminated soil and infrastructure including large roads and railroads. A number of landslides occur every year. The landslide risk analysis of Göta river valley is performed by traditional technical risk analysis, i.e. a function of hazard probability and consequences of the hazard. Elements at risk in the valley include for example, human life, transport and other infrastructure, properties and industrial activities, contaminated land, agriculture and forestry, and intangibles such as biodiversity. Exposure, vulnerability and the monetary value related to the landslide are used to describe the consequence of the landslide.

    This paper shows the process and structure of this consequence analysis for natural hazards. The consequence analysis methodology can be applied generic both nationally and internationally and for several types of natural hazards such as landslides and flooding.

  • 25.
    Andersson-Sköld, Yvonne
    et al.
    University of Gothenburg; COWI AB, Gothenburg.
    Thorsson, Sofia
    University of Gothenburg.
    Rayner, David
    University of Gothenburg.
    Lindberg, Fredrik
    University of Gothenburg.
    Janhäll, Sara
    The Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute (VTI), Gothenburg.
    Jonsson, Anna
    Linköping University.
    Moback, Ulf
    City of Gothenburg, Gothenburg.
    Bergman, Ramona
    Swedish Geotechnical Institute (SGI), Gothenburg.
    Granberg, Mikael
    Karlstad University, Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences (starting 2013), Department of Political, Historical, Religious and Cultural Studies. Karlstad University, Faculty of Health, Science and Technology (starting 2013), Centre for Climate and Safety.
    An integrated method for assessing climate-related risks and adaptation alternatives in urban areas2015In: Climate Risk Management, E-ISSN 2212-0963, Vol. 7, 31-50 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The urban environment is a complex structure with interlinked social, ecological and technical structures. Global warming is expected to have a broad variety of impacts, which will add to the complexity. Climate changes will force adaptation, to reduce climate-related risks. Adaptation measures can address one aspect at the time, or aim for a holistic approach to avoid maladaptation. This paper presents a systematic, integrated approach for assessing alternatives for reducing the risks of heat waves, flooding and air pollution in urban settings, with the aim of reducing the risk of maladaptation. The study includes strategies covering different spatial scales, and both the current climate situation and the climate predicted under climate change scenarios. The adaptation strategies investigated included increasing vegetation; selecting density, height and colour of buildings; and retreat or resist (defend) against sea-level rise. Their effectiveness was assessed with regard to not only flooding, heat stress and air quality but also with regard to resource use, emissions to air (incl. GHG), soil and water, and people’s perceptions and vulnerability. The effectiveness of the strategies were ranked on a common scale (from -3 to 3) in an integrated assessment. Integrated assessments are recommended, as they help identify the most sustainable solutions, but to reduce the risk of maladaptation they require experts from a variety of disciplines. The most generally applicable recommendation, derived from the integrated assessment here, taking into account both expertise from different municipal departments, literature surveys, life cycle assessments and publics perceptions, is to increase the urban greenery, as it contributes to several positive aspects such as heat stress mitigation, air quality improvement, effective storm-water and flood-risk management, and it has several positive social impacts. The most favourable alternative was compact, mid-rise, light coloured building design with large parks/green areas and trees near buildings. © 2015 The Authors.

  • 26.
    Andin, Caroline
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences.
    Synoptic Variability of Extreme Snowfall in the St. Elias Mountains, Yukon, Canada2015Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (Two Years)), 20 credits / 30 HE creditsStudent thesis
    Abstract [en]

    Glaciers of southwestern Yukon (Canada) and southeastern Alaska (USA) are presently experiencing high rates of annual mass loss. These high melt rates have mainly been investigated with respect to regional temperature trends, but comparatively little is known about how climate variations regulate snow accumulation on these glaciers. This study examines the synoptic weather patterns and air flow trajectories associated with extreme snowfall events in the central St. Elias Mountains (Yukon). The analyses are based on data retrieved from an automated weather station (AWS) between 2003 and 2012, which provide the longest continuous records of surface meteorological data ever obtained from this remote region.

    The AWS data reveal that 47 extreme snowfall events (> 27 cm per 12 hours) occurred during this period, of which 79 % took place during the cold season months. Air flow trajectories associated with these events indicate that a vast majority had their origin in the North Pacific south of 50°N. Less frequent were air masses with a source in the Aleutian Arc/Bering Sea region and the Gulf of Alaska, and in a few rare cases precipitating air was traced to continental source regions in Western Canada and Alaska. Composite maps of sea-level pressure and upper-level winds associated with extreme snowfall events revealed a frequent synoptic pattern with a low-pressure area centered over the Kenai Peninsula (Alaska), which drives strong southerly winds over the Gulf of Alaska towards the St. Elias Mountains. This pattern is consistent with AWS data wind recordings during snow storms. The most typical synoptic configurations of the North Pacific low-pressure area during extreme snowfall events are either elongated, split, or single-centered, and these situations represent possible seasonal analogues for the different states of the Aleutian Low in the subarctic North Pacific. However, neither the geographical position or intensity of negative sea-level pressure anomalies, nor surface pressure gradients associated with extreme snowfall events are good predictors of the actual snowfall SWE amounts recorded in the central St. Elias Mountains. Estimated snowfall and total precipitation gradients with altitude were confirmed to be much steeper (by up to ~30 %) on the continental side (Yukon), than on the coastal side (Alaska) of the St. Elias Mountains, reflecting the strong orographic division between the continental and coastal marine climatic regimes. Finally, patterns of 500-mb geopotential height anomalies associated with extreme snowfall events at Divide were compared with those associated with unusually high accumulation years in an ice core from the nearby Eclipse Icefield. Results confirm previous findings that associate high snow accumulation winters in this region with the presence of a strong dipole pressure structure between western North America and the Aleutian Low region, a structure which resembles the positive phase of the Pacific North American atmospheric circulation pattern. 

  • 27. Angelsen, Arild
    et al.
    Gierløff, Caroline Wang
    Beltrán, Angelica Mendoza
    Elzen, Michel den
    REDD credits in a global carbon market: Options and impacts2014Book (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    How can REDD credits be included in a future global carbon market, and what are the impacts of inclusion? We analyze ten different scenarios through 2020, varying the global emission caps and the REDD rules. An inclusion of REDD credits without any adjustments in the global cap will lower carbon prices significantly and cause crowding out. The cap must move towards the 2 degrees climate target if REDD inclusion is to maintain high carbon prices and strong incentives for emissions reductions in other sectors. At the same time, reaching the 2 degree target without full REDD inclusion will increase global mitigation costs by more than 50%.

  • 28. Arritt, Raymond W.
    et al.
    Rummukainen, Markku
    SMHI, Core Services.
    CHALLENGES IN REGIONAL-SCALE CLIMATE MODELING2011In: Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS), ISSN 0003-0007, E-ISSN 1520-0477, Vol. 92, no 3, 365-368 p.Article in journal (Other academic)
  • 29.
    Arvidsson, Anna K
    et al.
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Infrastructure, Infrastructure maintenance.
    Blomqvist, Göran
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Environment.
    Erlingsson, Sigurdur
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Infrastructure, Pavement Technology.
    Hellman, Fredrik
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Infrastructure, Pavement Technology.
    Jägerbrand, Annika
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Society, environment and transport, Environment.
    Öberg, Gudrun
    Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Infrastructure, Infrastructure maintenance.
    Klimatanpassning av vägkonstruktion, drift och underhåll2012Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The global climate change is a reality and affecting society and transport systems. Climate change adaptation of transport systems will make the means of transportation more resilient and decrease the risk and magnitude of disruptions. Generally, climate change adaptations in road construction, operation and maintenance will need relatively large changes, but there is a shortage of the specific knowledge required as to what steps need to be taken, when and where, before measures can actually be implemented. Since climate change effects vary among Sweden's climatic zones, the impact of climate change on the road behavior and longevity is extremely difficult to predict. The need for winter maintenance in Sweden will generally decrease due to the warmer climate. Ploughing frequency will probably decrease as well, but preparedness should not be reduced too much since occasions with more extreme instances will increase. In order to succeed in making the road transport system resilient to climate change, we conclude that there is a need to develop more knowledge about the impact on the road infrastructure system as well as the operation and maintenance of the system including how to adapt through different types of variable and flexible climate adaptation measures and the effects of extreme weather events.

  • 30.
    Asokan, Shilpa M.
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Destouni, Georgia
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Appendix to Paper V: Climate model performance versus basin-scalehydro-climatic dataManuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
  • 31.
    Asokan, Shilpa M.
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Destouni, Georgia
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Irrigation effects on hydro-climatic change: Basin-wise water balance-constrained quantification and cross-regional comparison2014In: Surveys in geophysics, ISSN 0169-3298, E-ISSN 1573-0956, Vol. 35, no 3, 879-895 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Hydro-climatic changes driven by human land and water use, including water use for irrigation, may be difficult to distinguish fromthe effects of global, natural and anthropogenic climate change. This paper quantifies and compares the hydro-climatic change effects ofirrigation using a data-driven, basin-wise quantification approach in two different irrigated world regions: the Aral Sea drainage basinin Central Asia, and the Indian Mahanadi River Basin draining into the Bay of Bengal. Results show that irrigation-driven changesin evapotranspiration and latent heat fluxes and associated temperature changes at the land surface may be greater in regions withsmall relative irrigation impacts on water availability in the landscape (here represented by the MRB) than in regions with severe suchimpacts (here represented by the Aral region). Different perspectives on the continental part of Earth’s hydrological cycle may thus implydifferent importance assessment of various drivers and impacts of hydro-climatic change. Regardless of perspective, however, actualbasin-wise water balance constraints should be accounted to realistically understand and accurately quantify continental water change.

  • 32.
    Asokan, Shilpa M.
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Dutta, Dushmanta
    Analysis of water resources in the Mahanadi River Basin, India under projected climate conditions2008In: Hydrological Processes, ISSN 0885-6087, E-ISSN 1099-1085, Vol. 22, no 18, 3589-3603 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The paper presents the outcomes of a study conducted to analyse water resources availability and demand in the Mahanadi River Basin in India under climate change conditions. Climate change impact analysis was carried out for the years 2000, 2025, 2050, 2075 and 2100, for the months of September and April (representing wet and dry months), at a sub-catchment level. A physically based distributed hydrologic model (DHM) was used for estimation of the present water availability. For future scenarios under climate change conditions, precipitation output of Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis General Circulation Model (CGCM2) was used as the input data for the DHM. The model results show that the highest increase in peak runoff (38%) in the Mahanadi River outlet will occur during September, for the period 2075-2100 and the maximum decrease in average runoff (32·5%) will be in April, for the period 2050-2075. The outcomes indicate that the Mahanadi River Basin is expected to experience progressively increasing intensities of flood in September and drought in April over the considered years. The sectors of domestic, irrigation and industry were considered for water demand estimation. The outcomes of the analysis on present water use indicated a high water abstraction by the irrigation sector. Future water demand shows an increasing trend until 2050, beyond which the demand will decrease owing to the assumed regulation of population explosion. From the simulated future water availability and projected water demand, water stress was computed. Among the six sub-catchments, the sub-catchment six shows the peak water demand. This study hence emphasizes on the need for re-defining water management policies, by incorporating hydrological response of the basin to the long-term climate change, which will help in developing appropriate flood and drought mitigation measures at the basin level.

  • 33.
    Asokan, Shilpa M.
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Jarsjö, Jerker
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Destouni, Georgia
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Vapor flux by evapotranspiration: effects of changes in climate, land-use and water-use2010In: Journal of Geophysical Research, ISSN 0148-0227, E-ISSN 2156-2202, Vol. 115, no D24Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Enhanced evapotranspiration (ET) over irrigated land and associated latent heat flux change can modify the climate. Model studies of such climate change effects of irrigation are commonly based on land use parameterizations, in terms of irrigated land area, or land area equipped for irrigation. Actual ET change, however, may also be driven by water use change in addition to land use change. This study quantifies and compares ET changes due to changes in climate, land use, and water use from the preirrigation period 1901–1955 to the recent period 1990–2000 (with irrigation) for the example case of Mahanadi River Basin (MRB) in India. The results show that actual water use per unit area of irrigated land may vary greatly over a hydrological drainage basin. In MRB, much higher water use per irrigated land unit in the downstream humid basin parts leads to higher vapor flux by ET, and irrigation‐induced ET flux change, than in the upstream, water‐stressed basin parts. This is consistent with water supply limitations in water‐stressed basins. In contrast, the assumption in land use−based models that irrigation maintains high soil moisture contents can imply higher modeled water use and therefore also higher modeled ET fluxes under dry conditions than under humid conditions. The present results indicate water use as an important driver of regional climate change, in addition to land use and greenhouse gas‐driven changes.

  • 34. Asselt, Harro van
    et al.
    Mehling, Michael E.
    Siebert, Clarisse Kehler
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Environment Institute.
    The Changing Architecture of International Climate Change Law2015In: Research Handbook on Climate Change Mitigation Law / [ed] G. van Calster et al., Cheltenham: Edward Elgar Publishing, 2015, Ch. 2- p.Chapter in book (Refereed)
  • 35. Asselt, Harro van
    et al.
    Pauw, Pieter
    Sælen, Håkon
    Assessment and Review under a 2015 Climate Change Agreement2015Book (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    In 2013, Parties to the UNFCCC were invited to prepare and communicate their Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) under a 2015 agreement. Assessment and review of INDCs can help to ensure that these contributions are in line with internationally agreed objectives and principles, help establish and enhance transparency, trust and accountability between Parties, and raise ambition over time.

     This report analyses the existing review processes both under and outside the UNFCCC. It suggests that some form of ex ante assessment and review process of INDCs could help ensure that they are ambitious and fair. Such process can be complemented by assessments by observer organizations and informal discussions among Parties. In addition, a periodic review of collective ambition is desirable from the perspective of environmental effectiveness, and can build on existing review processes.

  • 36.
    Asselt, Harro van
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Stockholm Environment Institute.
    Zelli, Fariborz
    Lund University.
    Connect the dots: Managing the fragmentation of global climate governance2014In: Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, ISSN 1432-847X, Vol. 16, no 2, 137-155 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The debate about post-2012 global climate governance has been framed largely by proponents and opponents of the policymaking process established by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). In light of the proliferation of institutions governing some aspects of climate change, analysts have asked whether a centralized or a polycentric climate governance architecture will be more effective, efficient, equitable, or viable. While these are valid questions, they obscure the fact that global climate governance is already polycentric, or rather: fragmented. This article argues that the more pertinent questions are how to sensibly link the different elements of global climate governance, and what the role of the UNFCCC could be in this regard. We examine these two questions for three aspects of global climate governance: international climate technology initiatives, emerging emissions trading systems, and unilateral trade measures. The article shows that there are strong arguments for coordination in all of these cases, and illustrates the possible role of the UNFCCC. It concludes, however, that possibilities for coordination will eventually be limited by underlying tensions that will plague any future climate governance architecture.

  • 37. Astrom, Christofer
    et al.
    Orru, Hans
    Rocklov, Joacim
    Strandberg, Gustav
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Ebi, Kristie L.
    Forsberg, Bertil
    Heat-related respiratory hospital admissions in Europe in a changing climate: a health impact assessment2013In: BMJ Open, ISSN 2044-6055, Vol. 3, no 1, e001842Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Objectives: Respiratory diseases are ranked second in Europe in terms of mortality, prevalence and costs. Studies have shown that extreme heat has a large impact on mortality and morbidity, with a large relative increase for respiratory diseases. Expected increases in mean temperature and the number of extreme heat events over the coming decades due to climate change raise questions about the possible health impacts. We assess the number of heat-related respiratory hospital admissions in a future with a different climate. Design: A Europe-wide health impact assessment. Setting: An assessment for each of the EU27 countries. Methods: Heat-related hospital admissions under a changing climate are projected using multicity epidemiological exposure-response relationships applied to gridded population data and country-specific baseline respiratory hospital admission rates. Times-series of temperatures are simulated with a regional climate model based on four global climate models, under two greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Results: Between a reference period (1981-2010) and a future period (2021-2050), the total number of respiratory hospital admissions attributed to heat is projected to be larger in southern Europe, with three times more heat attributed respiratory hospital admissions in the future period. The smallest change was estimated in Eastern Europe with about a twofold increase. For all of Europe, the number of heat-related respiratory hospital admissions is projected to be 26 000 annually in the future period compared with 11 000 in the reference period. Conclusions: The results suggest that the projected effects of climate change on temperature and the number of extreme heat events could substantially influence respiratory morbidity across Europe.

  • 38.
    Axelsson, Pia
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography.
    Minskad trädtillväxt under Lilla sitiden?: En dendroklimatologisk jämförelse mellan nutid och 1600-talet invid trädgränsen i norra Skandinavien2015Independent thesis Basic level (degree of Bachelor), 10 credits / 15 HE creditsStudent thesis
    Abstract [en]

    During the period called Little Ice Age (1400 ~ 1900) the climate of northern Europe was in an annual year-basis overall colder than it was before and after that period. The numbers of short, cold and rainy summers and long, bitter-cold winters where often repetitive under the approximately 500-years the period lasted. In Scandinavia, the coldest time during this period is estimated to have started around the end of the 16th century and lasted to the beginning of the 18th century. Trees growing at the tree-line are limited by temperature for their annual growth and hence showing differences of growth during changes in the climate,  a method called dendroclimatology. The variations of growth can be read in the tree-rings either by analyze the width of the ring or by look into the density of the wood and is used to reconstruct past climates. The aim of this study is to investigate how the tree-growth responded to the colder temperatures compared to today. Trees (Scots pine) close to the tree-line in northern Scandinavia where used to enhance the temperature signal in the data.  The proxy used is the growth density (MXD – maximum latewood density). The result reveals that during the coldest century, the trees show a larger number of negative growth-years with comparison with the 20th century and the negative and positive growth follows a more united trend. The result also shows a great number of negative growth-years at the end of the Little Ice Age, with a lot of extreme low growth - indexes (lower than -1.5). The conclusion then leans towards a cooler climate with overall lower temperatures under the 17th century compared to 1900-2004. 

  • 39. Azcárate, Juan
    et al.
    Balfors, Berit
    Destouni, Georgia
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Bring, Arvid
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology.
    Transboundary approach proposal for sustainable and climate change adaptation strategies in the Arctic2012Conference paper (Other academic)
  • 40.
    B. Krishnamurthy, Chandra Kiran
    et al.
    Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Center for Environmental and Resource Economics (CERE). Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Umeå School of Business and Economics (USBE), Economics.
    Cioffi, Francesco
    University of Rome ‘La Sapienza’, Italy.
    Lall, Upmanu
    Columbia University, New York.
    Rus, Ester
    Thames Water Innovation Centre, Reading, UK.
    Space-time Structure of Extreme Precipitation in Europe over the last CenturyArticle in journal (Refereed)
  • 41. Baja, Kristin
    et al.
    Granberg, Mikael
    Karlstad University, Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences (starting 2013), Department of Political, Historical, Religious and Cultural Studies.
    From engagement to empowerment: climate change and resilience planning in Baltimore City2018In: Local Action on Climate Change / [ed] Moloney, Susie, Fünfgeld, Hartmut och Granberg, Mikael, Abingdon & New York: Routledge, 2018, 1, 126-145 p.Chapter in book (Refereed)
  • 42.
    Baker, Andrea
    et al.
    Department of Earth Sciences, Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa.
    Routh, Joyanto
    Linköping University, Department of Thematic Studies, Tema Environmental Change. Linköping University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences.
    Roychoudhury, Alakendra N
    Department of Earth Sciences, Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa.
    Biomarker records of palaeoenvironmental variations in subtropical Southern Africa since the late Pleistocene: Evidences from a coastal peatland2016In: Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology, ISSN 0031-0182, E-ISSN 1872-616X, Vol. 451, no 1, 1-12 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Southern Africa's unique global position has given rise to a dynamic climate influenced by large sea surface temperature gradients and seasonal fluctuations in the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone. Due to the semi-arid climate of the region, terrestrial palaeorecords are rare and our understanding of the long-term sensitivity of Southern African terrestrial ecosystems to climatic drivers is ambiguous. A 810 cm continuous peat core was extracted from the Mfabeni peatland with a 14C basal age of c. 47 thousand years calibrated before present (kcal yr BP), positioning it as one of the oldest known sub-tropical coastal peatlands in Southern Africa. This peat core provides an opportunity to investigate palaeoenvironmental changes in subtropical Southern Africa since the late Pleistocene. Biomarker (n-alkane, n-alkanoic acid and n-alkanol) analysis, in conjunction with previously published bulk geochemical data, was employed to reconstruct organic matter (OM) sources, rates of OM remineralisation and peatland hydrology. Our results showed that the principal OM source into the peatland was emergent and terrestrial plants with exception of shallow lake conditions when submerged macrophytes dominated (c. 44.5–42.6, 29.7, 26.1–23.1, 16.7–7.1 and 2.2 kcal yr BP). n-Alkane proxies suggest that local plant assemblages were predominantly influenced by peatland hydrology. By incorporating temperature sensitive n-alkanoic acid and n-alkanol proxies, it was possible to disentangle the local temperature and precipitation changes. We report large variations in precipitation intensities, but subdued temperature fluctuations during the late Pleistocene. The Holocene period was characterised by overall elevated temperatures and precipitation compared to the preceding glacial period, interspersed with a millennial scale cooling event. A close link between the Mfabeni archive and adjacent Indian Ocean marine core records was observed, suggesting the regional ocean surface temperatures to be the dominant climate driver in this region since the late Pleistocene.

    The full text will be freely available from 2018-03-17 14:49
  • 43.
    Balian, Daniel
    KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Sustainable development, Environmental science and Engineering, Environmental Strategies Research (fms).
    Greenhouse gas Reduction in Infrastructure Projects: With a case study of California High-Speed Rail2017Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (Two Years)), 20 credits / 30 HE creditsStudent thesis
    Abstract [en]

    Infrastructure projects are today major contributors to global warming. However, various strategies for reduction of greenhouse gas emission are available, as described in sustainability assessment schemes and performed in infrastructure projects.

    Beyond the choice of methodology, greenhouse gas reduction represents an important challenge, namely to engage involved actors. The establishment of a common sustainability policy, reflected in procurement requirements could be a solution. However, often in subject of complications such as misunderstandings or increased cost.

    Impres, a research project aiming to streamline the process of greenhouse gas reduction in the infrastructure sector, conducts case studies around the world in which useful methods and examples are assimilated. In cooperation with Impres, the present report includes the case study of California High-Speed Rail (CHSR).

    The aim of this report is to compare strategies for greenhouse gas reduction of sustainability assessment schemes for infrastructure projects, and evaluate the feasibility as procurement requirements. Furthermore, to identify corresponding processes of greenhouse gas reduction in the case study of CHSR, as well as revealing important factors towards realization.

    The course of work involves a study of the schemes Envision, BREEAM Infrastructure, CEEQUAL, IS Rating System as well as the standard PAS 2080. Regarding the case study, the sustainability policy, procurement requirements and project reports are the main used sources. Moreover, qualitative interviews with involved actors have been performed in California. Finally, to create a comparative matrix for greenhouse gas reduction processes, standards ISO and PAS 2080 have been reviewed.

    The results show that greenhouse gas criteria of the studied schemes not are mandatory to perform in anyone but PAS 2080. Which means that further requisites might be needed in order for the schemes to be useful as procurement requirements. Furthermore, the outlining of processes reveals a weakness in the setting of a greenhouse gas reference point, and while every scheme includes a greenhouse gas quantity assessment, there is a difference in the priority of reduction.

    Regarding CHSR, an exclaimed policy goal is to perform climate neutral construction. While procurement requirements are limited to quantification of emitted greenhouse gases and the use of effective construction machinery, which is insufficient to meet the goal. Nevertheless, the Authority in charge is performing CO2 compensating measures, such as planting trees.

    Finally, a variety of driving forces, success factors and challenges for realizing greenhouse gas reduction have been identified. For example, personal motivation and legislation as driving forces. Whereas, sustainability as a core mission, experience and communication are seen as success factors, and resistance to transfer sustainability goals to procurement is an exclaimed challenge.

    As a conclusion, sustainability assessment schemes do have certain processes for greenhouse gas reduction in common. However, they present criteria with different degrees of obligation, affecting feasibility as procurement requirements. In CHSR, similar processes are found, where further reduction of greenhouse gases can be achieved, especially by an optimized choice of construction materials. In the end, personal motivation seems to be an important factor for introducing and realizing greenhouse gas reduction goals in infrastructure projects.

  • 44. Ballarotta, M.
    et al.
    Brodeau, L.
    Brandefelt, Jenny
    KTH, School of Engineering Sciences (SCI), Mechanics, Turbulence.
    Lundberg, P.
    Döös, K.
    Last Glacial Maximum world ocean simulations at eddy-permitting and coarse resolutions: do eddies contribute to a better consistency between models and palaeoproxies?2013In: Climate of the Past, ISSN 1814-9324, E-ISSN 1814-9332, Vol. 9, no 6, 2669-2686 p.Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Most state-of-the-art climate models include a coarsely resolved oceanic component, which hardly captures detailed dynamics, whereas eddy-permitting and eddy-resolving simulations are developed to reproduce the observed ocean. In this study, an eddy-permitting and a coarse resolution numerical experiment are conducted to simulate the global ocean state for the period of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, similar to 26 500 to 19 000 yr ago) and to investigate the improvements due to taking into account the smaller spatial scales. The ocean state from each simulation is confronted with a data set from the Multiproxy Approach for the Reconstruction of the Glacial Ocean (MARGO) sea surface temperatures (SSTs), some reconstructions of the palaeo-circulations and a number of sea-ice reconstructions. The western boundary currents and the Southern Ocean dynamics are better resolved in the high-resolution experiment than in the coarse simulation, but, although these more detailed SST structures yield a locally improved consistency between model predictions and proxies, they do not contribute significantly to the global statistical score. The SSTs in the tropical coastal upwelling zones are also not significantly improved by the eddy-permitting regime. The models perform in the mid-latitudes but as in the majority of the Paleo-climate Modelling Intercomparison Project simulations, the modelled sea-ice conditions are inconsistent with the palaeo-reconstructions. The effects of observation locations on the comparison between observed and simulated SST suggest that more sediment cores may be required to draw reliable conclusions about the improvements introduced by the high resolution model for reproducing the global SSTs. One has to be careful with the interpretation of the deep ocean state which has not reached statistical equilibrium in our simulations. However, the results indicate that the meridional overturning circulations are different between the two regimes, suggesting that the model parametrizations might also play a key role for simulating past climate states.

  • 45. Barthelmes, Alexandra
    et al.
    Couwenberg, John
    Risager, Mette
    Tegetmeyer, Cosima
    Joosten, Hans
    Peatlands and Climate in a Ramsar context: A Nordic-Baltic Perspective2015Book (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Peatlands in the Nordic Baltic region and elsewhere in the world store large amounts of carbon and are at the same time important for conservation of biodiversity. Thus peatlands are space-effective carbon stocks, but when drained carbon and nitrogen are released as greenhouse gases to the atmosphere and as nitrate to the surface water, while methane will be released when rewetting.

    New knowledge reveals that one of the most efficient means to mitigate emissions of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere are the restoration of drained peatlands by reestablish former high water tables on organic soils.

    This project on synergies between climate change mitigation and the restoration of peatlands has been conducted under a regional Ramsar initiative covering the Nordic and Baltic countries (NorBalWet), with support from the Nordic Council of Ministers. The report contains chapters on peatlands and their role in climate change mitigation, individual country chapters and the role of the Ramsar Convention.

  • 46. Barua, Sepul Kanti
    et al.
    Berg, Peer
    Bruvoll, Annegrete
    Cederberg, Christel
    Drinkwater, Kenneth F.
    Eide, Arne
    Eythorsdottir, Emma
    Guðjónsson, Sigurður
    Gudmundsson, Leo A.
    Gundersen, Per
    Hoel, Alf Håkon
    Jarp, Jorun
    Jørgensen, Rikke Bagger
    Kantanen, Juha
    Kettunen-Præbel, Anne
    Løvendahl, Peter
    Meuwissen, Theo
    Olesen, Jørgen E.
    Portin, Anders
    Rognli, Odd Arne
    Stiansen, Jan Erik
    Climate change and primary industries: Impacts, adaptation and mitigation in the Nordic countries2014Book (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Climate change is expected to have a profound impact on natural resources, and thus on the primary industries (agriculture, forestry and fisheries) in the Nordic countries. Climate change induces risks but also creates possibilities for new production systems on land and in the ocean. Climatic changes also represent great challenges for policy-making and management regimes. The current knowledge base on natural resources in the Nordic region needs to be expanded to fully address the impacts of climate change. In particular it is important to address the need for improved policies and new policy instruments. The research programme Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Mitigation in Nordic Primary Industries is a coordinated set of thematic research networks with the objective to create a Nordic knowledge base on climate change interactions with primary industries in the Nordic region.

  • 47. Basirat, Farzad
    et al.
    Niemi, Auli
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL.
    Perroud, H
    Université de Montpellier.
    Lofi, J.
    Université de Montpellier.
    Denchik, N.
    Université de Montpellier.
    Pezard, P.
    Université de Montpellier.
    Sharma, Prabhakar
    Fagerlund, Fritjof
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL.
    Modeling gas transport in the shallow subsurface in the Maguelone field experiment2013Conference paper (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
    Abstract [en]

    Developing reliable monitoring techniques to detect and characterize CO2 leakage in shallow subsurface is necessary for the safety of any GCS project. To test different monitoring techniques, shallow injection-monitoring experiment have and are being carried out at the Maguelone, along the Mediterranean lido of the Gulf of Lions, near Montpellier, France. This experimental site was developed in the context of EU FP7 project MUSTANG and is documented in Lofi et al. (2012). Gas injection experiments are being carried out and three techniques of pressure, electrical resistivity and seismic monitoring have been used to detect the nitrogen and CO2 release in the near surface environment. In the present work we use the multiphase and multicomponent TOUGH2/EOS7CA model to simulate the gaseous nitrogen and CO2 transport of the experiments carried out so far. The objective is both to gain understanding of the system performance based on the model analysis as well as to further develop and validate modelling approaches for gas transport in the shallow subsurface, against the well-controlled data sets. Numerical simulation can also be used for the prediction of experimental setup limitations. We expect the simulations to represent the breakthrough time for the different tested injection rates. Based on the hydrogeological formation data beneath the lido, we also expect the vertical heterogeneities in grain size distribution create an effective capillary barrier against upward gas transport in numerical simulations.

  • 48.
    Basirat, Farzad
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL.
    Niemi, Auli
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL.
    Perroud, H
    Université de Montpellier.
    Lofi, J
    Université de Montpellier.
    Denchik, N
    Université de Montpellier.
    Pezard, P
    Université de Montpellier.
    Sharma, Prabhakar
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL.
    Fagerlund, Fritjof
    Uppsala University.
    Modeling gas transport in the shallow subsurface in the Maguelone field experiment2013Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Developing reliable monitoring techniques to detect and characterize CO2  leakage in shallow subsurface is necessary for the safety of any GCS project. To test different monitoring techniques, shallow injection-monitoring experiment have and are being carried out at the Maguelone, along the Mediterranean lido of the Gulf of Lions, near Montpellier, France. This experimental site was developed in the context of EU FP7 project MUSTANG and is documented in Lofi et al. (2012). Gas injection experiments are being carried out and three techniques of pressure, electrical resistivity and seismic monitoring have been used to detect the nitrogen and CO2  release in the near surface environment. In the present work we use the multiphase and multicomponent TOUGH2/EOS7CA model to simulate the gaseous nitrogen and CO2  transport of the experiments carried out so far. The objective is both to gain understanding of the system performance based on the model analysis as well as to further develop and validate modelling approaches for gas transport in the shallow subsurface, against the well-controlled data sets. Numerical simulation can also be used for the prediction of experimental setup limitations. We expect the simulations to represent the breakthrough time for the different tested injection rates. Based on the hydrogeological formation data beneath the lido, we also expect the vertical heterogeneities in grain size distribution create an effective capillary barrier against upward gas transport in numerical simulations.

  • 49. Basirat, Farzad
    et al.
    Yang, Zhibing
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA.
    Niemi, Auli
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL.
    Pore-scale modeling of wettability effects on CO2-brine displacement during geological storage2016Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Wetting properties of reservoir rocks and caprocks can significantly influence on sequestration of carbon dioxide in deep geological formations. Wettability impacts on the physical and chemical processes that are associated with injecting CO2 underground. Our aim is to understand how wetting properties influence two-phase flow of CO2 and brine in a pore scale domain. We use the phase field method to simulate the two-phase flow of CO2-brine in realistic porous domain geometry. Our focus is on clarifying the pore-scale fluid-fluid displacement mechanisms under different wetting conditions and to quantifying the effect of contact angle on macroscopic parameters such as residual brine saturation, capillary pressure, and specific interfacial area. We could show the phase field method can be applied to a complex porous medium with realistic reservoir permeability. Beside it was shown that it can deal with the conditions with large viscosity contrasts and large wettability (low contact angles) which are difficult to handle with direct numerical approaches. Our simulations results suggest wettability concept cannot be explained just by contact angles. Even though the wettability in pore-scale is defined as the contact angle, there is not any particular relation to link the contact angle to the residual saturations and distribution patterns of CO2 in porous domain. Beside the contact angle, the flow rate and basic properties of fluids which are represent in capillary number and mobility number definitions and also the geometry of porous media are describe the CO2-brine distributions.

  • 50. Belda, Michal
    et al.
    Skalak, Petr
    Farda, Ales
    Halenka, Tomas
    Deque, Michel
    Csima, Gabriella
    Bartholy, Judit
    Torma, Csaba
    Boroneant, Constanta
    Caian, Mihaela
    SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.
    Spiridonov, Valery
    CECILIA Regional Climate Simulations for Future Climate: Analysis of Climate Change Signal2015In: Advances in Meteorology, ISSN 1687-9309, E-ISSN 1687-9317, 354727Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Regional climate models (RCMs) are important tools used for downscaling climate simulations from global scale models. In project CECILIA, two RCMs were used to provide climate change information for regions of Central and Eastern Europe. Models RegCM and ALADIN-Climate were employed in downscaling global simulations from ECHAM5 and ARPEGE-CLIMAT under IPCC A1B emission scenario in periods 2021-2050 and 2071-2100. Climate change signal present in these simulations is consistent with respective driving data, showing similar large-scale features: warming between 0 and 3 degrees C in the first period and 2 and 5 degrees C in the second period with the least warming in northwestern part of the domain increasing in the southeastern direction and small precipitation changes within range of +1 to -1 mm/day. Regional features are amplified by the RCMs, more so in case of the ALADIN family of models.

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