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  • 4201.
    Öhman, Mattias
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    Smarta och sociala lever längre: sambanden mellan intelligens, social förmåga och mortalitet2015Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [sv]

    I denna rapport dokumenteras sambanden mellan intelligens, social förmåga och mortalitet. Resultaten pekar på att både intelligens och social förmåga är negativt kopplade till risken att dö i förtid, men att sambandet är starkast för social förmåga. Mönstren är tydligast bland låginkomsttagare och individer utan högskoleutbildning. Inom dessa grupper, låginkomsttagare respektive ej högskoleutbildade, finns stora skillnader i risken för mortalitet som kan förklaras av skillnader i intelligens och social förmåga.

  • 4202.
    Öhman, Mattias
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    Välgörenhet och social påverkan: Ett fältexperiment om pantning och donationsbenägenhet2010Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (One Year)), 10 credits / 15 HE creditsStudent thesis
    Abstract [sv]

    Med ett naturligt fältexperiment studeras betydelsen av social påverkan för individers benägenhet att skänka pengar. Den dominerande teorin inom nationalekonomin som förklaring till välgörenhet är warm glow altruism. Teorin säger att människor skänker pengar på grund av en kombination av altruism och warm glow. Men det finns även teorier som förutsäger att socialt tryck spelar roll. I experimentet ställdes frågor till pantkunder om deras bidrag till välgörenhet. Individerna i behandlingsgruppen blev tillfrågade innan de började panta och kunnat välja om de ska skänka panten. I kontrollgruppen besvarades frågorna efteråt. Resultatet tyder på att social påverkan spelar stor roll för benägenheten att skänka panten.

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    Välgörenhet och social påverkan : Ett fältexperiment om pantning och donationsbenägenhet
  • 4203.
    Öhman, Mattias
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute for Housing and Urban Research. Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics, Uppsala Center for Fiscal Studies. Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Medicine and Pharmacy, Faculty of Medicine, Department of Women's and Children's Health, Healthcare Sciences and e-Health.
    Olausson, Peter
    Har genusvetenskapen blivit sokaliserad?2017In: Folkvett, ISSN 0283-0795, no 3, p. 20-25Article in journal (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
    Abstract [sv]

    Peter Olausson och Mattias Öhman skriver om ett försök till ”sokalisering” av genusvetenskapen.

  • 4204.
    Önder, Ali Sina
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics, Uppsala Center for Fiscal Studies.
    Portmann, Marco
    University of Fribourg.
    Stadelmann, David
    University of Bayreuth and CREMA..
    No Place like Home: Opinion Formation with Homophily and Implications for Policy Decisions2015Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    We demonstrate a simple model of opinion diffusion where a local opinion leader acts as the initiator of public discussion. We show the possibility of driving a significant wedge between opinions of two groups that exhibit homophily even though individuals are highly conformist. In particular, we show that there exists an opinion gap between the group which the opinion leader belongs to (referred to as the residence community) and the other group; and this opinion gap is increasing in the relative size of the residence community. Using a unique dataset of national referenda in Switzerland from 2008 to 2012, we show that members of parliament (MPs) match referenda outcomes in their residence communities closer than they do in neighboring communities, and this wedge interacts signicantly with the relative size of the residence community, thus aligning with our theoretical conjectures. We conclude that observed opinion gaps can actually be overrated to the extent that they are driven by structures that underlie the social web of different groups within the society.

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  • 4205.
    Örnqvist, Hanna
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    Globalization, inflation and global output gap2022Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (Two Years)), 20 credits / 30 HE creditsStudent thesis
    Abstract [en]

    The inflation rate has been relatively low and stable in Sweden and several other economies around the world in the recent decades. This despite economic conditions that earlier has been associated with increases in the inflation rate. Simultaneously, international integration has increased and the inflation rate seem to co-move to a higher degree across countries than earlier. This set of conditions has brought up the interest for several researchers to re-consider the traditional Phillips curve relationship and evaluate whether domestic inflation rate depends on foreign factors in terms of global resource utilization. This paper address the question of global factors effects on domestic inflation for Sweden using different versions of a Phillips curve equation extended with a trade-weighted global output gap. The results indicate that global output gap affects the inflation rate in Sweden and it seem that these effects have increased over the sample period.  

  • 4206.
    Österberg, Emelie
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    The Trend, the Cycle and the Output Gap: A Decomposition of Swedish GDP2017Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (Two Years)), 20 credits / 30 HE creditsStudent thesis
    Abstract [en]

    The first aim of this thesis is to decompose real GDP for Swedeninto a trend and a cyclical component. By identifying a state spacerepresentation and using a Kalman filter I find the latent stochastic trendand the stationary cycle. The relationship between the two componentsis studied to find whether it is the stochastic trend or the cycle thataccounts for most of the unexpected variation in real GDP. The secondaim is to compare the extracted cycle to two commonly used indicatorsof the output gap: capacity utilization and unemployment. I find thatthe cycle is quite closely related to both variables, indicating that thecycle reflects the output gap to a large extent.

  • 4207.
    Östergren, Anna
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics, Uppsala Center for Fiscal Studies.
    Vad händer med arbetsutbudet vid minskad tillgång till barnomsorg?: EN EMPIRISK STUDIE ÖVER HUR MINSKAD TILLGÅNG TILL BARNOMSORG PÅVERKAT SYSSELSÄTTNINGEN FÖR KVINNOR OCH MÄN SOM EN KONSEKVENS AV COVID-192021Independent thesis Basic level (degree of Bachelor), 10 credits / 15 HE creditsStudent thesis
    Abstract [sv]

    Parallellt med det stora antalet dödsfall är minskningen i det totala utbudet av barnomsorg ytterligareen konsekvens av Coronapandemin. Skolor och förskolor stängdes som en följd av restriktioner varpå diskussioner lär ha uppstått i hemmen gällande vem av vårdnadshavarna som ska ta hand om barnen. Ett ökat antal VAB-dagar stärker mödrars förhandlingsläge inför besluttagandet, vilket genererar en ökning av fäders åtagande. Denna studie har försökt besvara huruvida minskat utbud av barnomsorg, till följd av pandemin, påverkat arbetsutbudet samt hur jämställdheten påverkats hos småbarnsföräldrar. Analys görs med DD-metoden och baseras på data från SCB. Inga resultat var statistiskt signifikanta. Däremot finns en antydan om att såväl arbetsutbudet som könsskillnaden, i faktiskt arbetade timmar per vecka, har minskat i Sverige för småbarnsföräldrar i jämförelse mot föräldrar med stora hemmaboende barn. Med stora reservationer för statistisk osäkerhet, ger resultaten en glimt av hopp om en ljusare framtid med delvis färre restriktioner och förhoppningsvis bättre förutsättningar för en mer jämställd föräldraledighet i det svenska samhället. För att säkerställa denna studies resultat krävs emellertid ytterligare forskning kring ämnet. 

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  • 4208.
    Österholm, Göran
    Uppsala University, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    EMPIRISK STUDIE AV BLACK-SCHOLES PRISSÄTTNINGSMODELL: OMXS30-OPTIONERS PRISRÖRELSER OCH DELTA HEDGING2007Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (One Year)), 10 credits / 15 HE creditsStudent thesis
    Abstract [sv]

    I uppsatsen studeras diskrepansen mellan Black-Scholes prissättningsmodell och prissättningen på marknaden för OMXS30-optioner – i ett delta hedging-perspektiv.

    Resultaten i uppsatsen antyder att Black-Scholes modell ger för höga D -värden för OMXS30 köpoptioner och likaså ger modellen för höga D -värden för OMXS30 säljoptioner gentemot verkligheten, under testperioden.

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  • 4209.
    Österholm, Göran
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    Narrow Framing and Call Option Grants2011Licentiate thesis, monograph (Other academic)
  • 4210.
    Österholm, Göran
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    Narrow Framing and Call Option Grants2011Licentiate thesis, monograph (Other academic)
  • 4211.
    Österholm, Karl Göran
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    Essays on Managerial Compensation2013Doctoral thesis, monograph (Other academic)
  • 4212.
    Österholm, Pär
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    A structural Bayesian VAR for model-based fan charts2008In: Applied Economics, ISSN 0003-6846, E-ISSN 1466-4283, Vol. 40, no 12, p. 1557-1569Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Inflation forecast uncertainty is of importance for a wide range of agents in the economy, central banks in particular. Ways to describe and account for this uncertainty in a consistent manner have received increasing attention of late, in part due to the growing number of inflation-targeting central banks. This article develops a large structural VAR for the Swedish economy and estimates it in a Bayesian framework. The methodology permits not only structural interpretation and analysis but offers a natural way to formalize forecast uncertainty, as the posterior predictive density from the model has the interpretation of a fan chart.

  • 4213.
    Österholm, Pär
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    Can forecasting performance be improved by considering the steady state?: An application to Swedish inflation and interest rate2008In: Journal of Forecasting, ISSN 0277-6693, E-ISSN 1099-131X, Vol. 27, no 1, p. 41-51Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper investigates whether the forecasting performance of Bayesian autoregressive and vector autoregressive models can be improved by incorporating prior beliefs on the steady state of the time series in the system. Traditional methodology is compared to the new framework-in which a mean-adjusted form of the models is employed-by estimating the models on Swedish inflation and interest rate data from 1980 to 2004. Results show that the out-of-sample forecasting ability of the models is practically unchanged for inflation but significantly improved for the interest rate when informative prior distributions on the steady state are provided. The findings in this paper imply that this new methodology could be useful since it allows us to sharpen our forecasts in the presence of potential pitfalls such as near unit root processes and structural breaks, in particular when relying on small samples.

  • 4214.
    Österholm, Pär
    Uppsala University, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    Estimating the Relationship between Age Structure and GDP in the OECD Using Panel Cointegration Methods2004Report (Other scientific)
  • 4215.
    Österholm, Pär
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    Incorporating Judgement in Fan Charts2006Report (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
    Abstract [en]

    Within a decision-making group, such as the monetary-policy committee of a central bank,group members often hold differing views about the future of key economic variables. Such differences of opinion can be thought of as reflecting differing sets of judgement. This paper suggests modelling each agent’s judgement as one scenario in a macroeconomic model. Each judgement set has a specific dynamic impact on the system, and accordingly, a particular predictive density – or fan chart – associated with it. A weighted linear combination of the predictive densities yields a final predictive density that correctly reflects the uncertainty perceived by the agents generating the forecast. In a model-based environment, this framework allows judgement to be incorporated into fan charts in a formalised manner.

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  • 4216.
    Österholm, Pär
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    Incorporating Judgement in Fan Charts2009In: Scandinavian Journal of Economics, ISSN 0347-0520, E-ISSN 1467-9442, Vol. 111, no 2, p. 387-415Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Within a decision-making group, such as a central bank's monetary-policy committee, group members often hold differing views about the future of key economic variables. Such differences of opinion can be thought of as reflecting differing sets of judgement. This paper suggests modelling each agent's judgement as one scenario in a macroeconomic model. Each judgement set has a specific dynamic impact on the system and, accordingly, a particular predictive density—or fan chart—associated with it. A weighted linear combination of the predictive densities yields a final predictive density that reflects the uncertainty perceived by the agents generating the forecast.

  • 4217.
    Österholm, Pär
    Uppsala University, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    Killing Four Unit Root Birds in the US Economy with Three Panel Unit Root Test Stones2004In: Applied Economics Letters, Vol. 11, no 4, p. 213-216Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This study tests for the presence of unit roots in four US macroeconomic time series using panel unit root tests. The Im, Pesaran and Shin (Journal of Econometrics, 115, pp. 53–74, 2003) test, the Multivariate Augmented Dickey-Fuller test (Taylor and Sarno, Journal of International Economics, 46, pp. 281–312, 1998) and the Johansen (Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12, pp. 231–54, 1988) likelihood ratio test are applied to unemployment, the real exchange rate, the nominal interest rate and inflation. The three tests all have ways of controlling the obvious cross-sectional dependence in the panel. Using monthly data from 1960 to 2002 there is evidence that all time series are generated by stationary processes.

  • 4218.
    Österholm, Pär
    Uppsala University, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    Mean Reversion in Swedish Macroeconomic Time Series - Evidence Using a New Panel Data Approach2004In: European Review of Economics and Finance, Vol. 3, no 4, p. 23-36Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The presence or absence of unit roots in a time series can be used to test the validity of a number of economic hypotheses and the persistence of economic time series therefore receives a fair amount of attention. This paper tests for the presence of unit roots in four time series of major interest to the Swedish macro economy. The time series properties of the real exchange rate, the nominal interest rate, inflation and unemployment are investigated using both traditional univariate unit root tests and panel unit root tests in a new panel setting. It is well known that there is power to be gained when testing for unit roots by using a panel setting. By applying two different panel unit root tests - the frequently used Im, Pesaran and Shin (2003) and the less used, but potentially highly informative, Johansen (1988) likelihood ratio test - the drawbacks of panel unit root tests, such as formulation of null and alternative hypothesis and the common assumption of cross-sectional independence, are also addressed in this study. Applying the tests to monthly data from 1972 to 2003, the panel unit root tests provide strong evidence that all four time series are stationary-processes.

  • 4219.
    Österholm, Pär
    Uppsala University, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    Size Properties of Cointegration Tests in Misspecified Systems2004In: Applied Economics Letters, Vol. 11, no 15, p. 919-924Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The small sample size properties of three frequently used cointegration tests when a system has been misspecified are investigated. Specifically, the misspecification consists of one relevant variable being omitted from a system with one cointegrating vector. A Monte Carlo study shows that the Johansen (1991) trace test, adjusted by a simple finite sample correction, has the most robust behaviour when lag length in the test equations is chosen according to traditional information criteria.

  • 4220.
    Österholm, Pär
    Uppsala University, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    Testing for Cointegration in Misspecified Systems - A Monte Carlo Study of Size Distortions2002Licentiate thesis, monograph (Other scientific)
  • 4221.
    Österholm, Pär
    Uppsala University, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    Testing for cointegration in misspecified systems: a Monte Carlo study of size distortions2003Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    When dealing with time series that are integrated of order one, the concept of cointegration becomes crucial for the specification of a model. Using the best available tests, one can reduce the probability of estimating econometric models that are misspecified. This paper investigates the small sample performance of four well-known cointegration tests when a system has been misspecified by leaving out one relevant explanatory variable from a system with one cointegrating vector. In a Monte Carlo study, the size distortions of the Augmented Engle-Granger (Engle and Granger, 1987), Johansen’s (1988) maximum eigenvalue, Johansen’s (1991) trace and the Boswijk (1989) Wald tests are examined. The Johansen trace test adjusted by the finite sample correction of Reinsel and Ahn (1988) is found to have the most robust performance when lag length in the test equations is chosen according to traditional information criteria.

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  • 4222.
    Österholm, Pär
    Uppsala University, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    Testing for Cointegration in Misspecified Systems –A Monte Carlo Study of Size Distortions2003Report (Other scientific)
  • 4223.
    Österholm, Pär
    Uppsala University, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    Testing for Hysteresis in Nordic Unemployment Using the Johansen Likelihood Ratio Test for Cointegration2004In: Applied Economics Quarterly, Vol. 50, no 3, p. 249-260Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Whether shocks to unemployment in an economy are temporary or permanent will have implications for the design of labour market regulations, institutions and counteracting policy. The concept of unemployment hysteresis therefore becomes crucial when designing and implementing policy. This paper tests for the presence of unemployment hysteresis in the Nordic countries using the Johansen (1988) likelihood ratio test for cointegration as a panel unit root test. The results indicate that there is no unemployment hysteresis in any of the Nordic countries.

  • 4224.
    Österholm, Pär
    Uppsala University, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    The Taylor rule: a spurious regression2003Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper investigates the econometric properties of the Taylor (1993) rule applied to U.S., Australian and Swedish data to judge its empirical relevance. Little attention has been paid to the time series properties of the data underlying interest rate rules, nor the estimations themselves, despite the rise in popularity of Taylor-like rules in both empirical and theoretical work. Unit root tests indicate that the variables commonly used in such modelling are likely to be integrated of order one or near integrated. Given that the variables in the Taylor rule are integrated of order one or near integrated processes, cointegration is a necessary condition both for consistent estimation of the parameters of the model and compatibility between the model and the data. Tests find little support for cointegration and, together with an out-of-sample forecast exercise, suggest that we should have serious doubts about the Taylor rule as a reasonable description of how monetary policy is conducted in the countries considered in this study. Parameter estimates from the standard Taylor rule regressions are therefore likely to be inconsistent and caution should be taken before for central bank policy is evaluated using such methods.

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  • 4225.
    Österholm, Pär
    Uppsala University, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    The Taylor Rule: A Spurious Regression?2003Report (Other scientific)
  • 4226.
    Österholm, Pär
    Uppsala University, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    The Taylor Rule: A Spurious Regression?2005In: Bulletin of Economic Research, Vol. 57, no 3, p. 217-247Article in journal (Other (popular scientific, debate etc.))
  • 4227.
    Österholm, Pär
    Uppsala University, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    The Taylor Rule and Real-Time Data – A Critical Appraisal2005In: Applied Economics Letters, Vol. 12, no 11, p. 679-685Article in journal (Other (popular scientific, debate etc.))
  • 4228.
    Österholm, Pär
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    The time-series properties of Norweigan inflation and nominal interest rate2009In: Applied Economics, ISSN 0003-6846, E-ISSN 1466-4283, Vol. 41, no 10, p. 1303-1309Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This article investigates the time-series properties of Norwegian inflation and nominal interest rate using annual data from 1850 to 2004. A number of different univariate unit-root tests are employed to examine whether the time series are mean reverting or generated by unit-root processes. Results show very strong evidence in favour of mean reversion in inflation but a unit root in the nominal interest rate. This implies that there exists no long-run relationship between these two variables, a conclusion which is further supported by cointegration tests and estimated vector error correction models. The cointegration analysis also points to an important potential pitfall when using cointegration techniques on systems where some variables are stationary processes.

  • 4229.
    Österholm, Pär
    Uppsala University, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    Time Series and Macroeconomics: Studies in Demography and Monetary Policy2004Doctoral thesis, monograph (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Chapter 1 provides a brief introduction to the topics of the thesis and summarises the main results.

    Chapter 2 studies the econometric properties of the Taylor (1993) rule when applied to U.S., Australian and Swedish data in order to judge its empirical relevance. Unit root tests indicate that the variables commonly used in such modelling are likely to be integrated of order one or near integrated. Given these time series properties, cointegration becomes a necessary condition both for consistent estimation of the parameters of the model and compatibility between the model and the data. Tests find little support for cointegration and, together with an out-of-sample forecast exercise, suggest that we should have serious doubts about the Taylor rule as a reasonable description of how monetary policy is conducted in the countries considered in this study.

    Chapter 3 investigates the relationship between age structure and GDP in 20 OECD countries using annual data between 1970 and 1999. Using new methodology, the relationship between the variables can be formulated in levels despite the presence of unit roots in the time series. Applying two panel cointegration tests proposed by Pedroni (1999), support is found for a long run relationship between GDP and the number of people in five different age groups. Coefficient estimates from panel regressions support effects predicted by the life cycle hypothesis and human capital theory.

    Chapter 4 investigates the small sample performance of four well-known cointegration tests when a system has been misspecified by leaving out one relevant variable from a system with one cointegrating vector. In a Monte Carlo study, the size distortions of the Augmented Engle-Granger (Engle and Granger, 1987), Johansen’s (1988) maximum eigenvalue, Johansen’s (1991) trace and the Boswijk (1989) Wald tests are examined. The Johansen trace test adjusted by a finite sample correction is found to have the most robust performance when lag length in the test equations is chosen according to traditional information criteria.

    Chapter 5 tests for the presence of unit roots in four U.S. macroeconomic time series using panel unit root tests. This is done by introducing a new panel setting which allows the researcher to test several hypotheses for one country instead of one hypothesis for several countries, which has been the standard approach in previous work. The Im, Pesaran and Shin (2003) test, the Multivariate Augmented Dickey-Fuller test (Taylor and Sarno, 1998) and the Johansen (1988) likelihood ratio test are applied to unemployment, the real exchange rate, the nominal interest rate and inflation. The three tests all have ways of controlling the obvious cross-sectional dependence in the panel. Using monthly data from 1960 to 2002 there is evidence that all time series are generated by stationary processes.

  • 4230.
    Österholm, Pär
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    Zettelmeyer, Jeromin
    IMF's Research Department.
    The Effect of External Conditions on Growth in Latin America2008In: IMF Staff papers (Print), ISSN 1020-7635, E-ISSN 1564-5150, Vol. 55, no 4, p. 595-623Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper investigates the sensitivity of Latin American GDP growth to external developments using a Bayesian vector-autoregressive model with informative steady-state priors. The model is estimated using quarterly data from 1994 to 2007 on key external and Latin American variables. It finds that 50 to 60 percent of the variation in Latin American GDP growth is accounted for by external shocks. Conditional forecasts for a variety of external scenarios suggest that Latin American growth is robust to moderate declines in commodity prices and external growth, but sensitive to more extreme shocks, particularly a combined external slowdown and tightening of world financial conditions.

  • 4231.
    Österman, Marcus
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Government. Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics. Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics, Uppsala Center for Labor Studies (UCLS).
    Can We Trust Education for Fostering Trust?: Quasi-experimental Evidence on the Effect of Education and Tracking on Social Trust2021In: Social Indicators Research, ISSN 0303-8300, E-ISSN 1573-0921, Vol. 154, no 1, p. 211-233Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Education is one of the most commonly proposed determinants of social trust (generalized trust). Nevertheless, the empirical evidence of a causal relationship between education and social trust is inconclusive. This study contributes to this discussion in two ways. First, its design provides strong grounds for causal inference across multiple countries by exploiting numerous European compulsory schooling reforms. Second, it considers how the structure of education, specifically between-school tracking, impacts the relationship between education and social trust. The article argues that less tracking is positive for social trust because it entails intergroup contacts between children with different social backgrounds. The results do not give support for a general positive effect of education on social trust as the effect of reforms that extend compulsory education is positive but small and not statistically significant. However, reforms that reduce tracking have a somewhat larger, but still modest, positive and statistically significant effect on social trust. The effect is more pronounced for individuals with poorly educated parents. The positive effect of detracking reforms goes hand-in-hand with more understanding attitudes towards persons with a different background than one’s own. The lack of a clear effect of reforms that extend compulsory schooling on social trust reinforces the findings of recent single-country studies that have been unable to confirm a causal effect of education on social trust. However, the effect of detracking reforms, albeit modest, shows that education can have a positive effect on social trust but that the institutional character of education may be a conditioning factor.

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  • 4232.
    Österman, Marcus
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Government. Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics, Uppsala Center for Labor Studies (UCLS).
    Brännlund, Anton
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Government.
    Unemployment, workplace socialization, and electoral participation: evidence from Sweden2024In: European Sociological Review, ISSN 0266-7215, E-ISSN 1468-2672, Vol. 40, no 1, p. 85-98Article, review/survey (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    How unemployment affects electoral participation is a archetypal question in political sociology and of particular relevance in economic crises; in the 1930s as well as during a pandemic. A frequent argument in the literature is that unemployment leads to political withdrawal as the unemployed have to focus on their economy and other personal matters. Some scholars, on the other hand, reason that unemployment triggers political mobilization through feelings of grievance and a strive to protest against leading politicians. However, existing empirical evidence is mixed and often suffers from limitations in data and research design. To make progress on this difficult empirical question, the present study leverages Swedish register data on turnout, spanning nine elections between 1970 and 2018. This extensive panel dataset enables us to more adequately address the causal status of the relationship by relying on the with-in individual variation in turnout. Our results report significant but modest negative effects of both unemployment in general and of losing a relatively well-paid job (job loss). The effects are driven by the young. We also find that the negative effect is less pronounced for those who have previously worked at a workplace where most colleagues participate, supporting a socialization mechanism.

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  • 4233.
    Österman, Marcus
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Government. Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics, Uppsala Center for Labor Studies (UCLS).
    Lindgren, Karl-Oskar
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Government. Uppsala University, Units outside the University, The Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy (IFAU). Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics, Uppsala Center for Labor Studies (UCLS).
    Does high unemployment mobilize the unemployed? Evidence using Swedish register data2021In: Socio-Economic Review, ISSN 1475-1461, E-ISSN 1475-147X, Vol. 21, no 1, p. 341-365Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This article contributes to recent scholarship on the effects of economic hardship on political participation, and particularly on the issue of how individual and contextual effects interact. More specifically, we study whether the effect of individual unemployment on turnout depends on the level of aggregate unemployment. In contrast to most existing researchers on this topic, we argue that contextual unemployment may reinforce the negative effects of individual unemployment. We also contend that previous studies have not adequately considered how the composition of the unemployed population differs across times of high and low unemployment. Our empirical approach uses state-of-the-art Swedish register panel data, which gives us good opportunities to control for the selection of the unemployed population over the business cycle. We find that once this problem of dynamic selection is taken into account, the negative effect of individual unemployment on electoral turnout is actually stronger in high unemployment contexts.

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    fulltext
  • 4234.
    Österman, Marcus
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Government. Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics, Uppsala Center for Labor Studies (UCLS).
    Robinson, Darrel
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Government.
    Educating Democrats or Autocrats?: The regime-conditional effect of education on support for democracy2023In: Political Studies, ISSN 0032-3217, E-ISSN 1467-9248, Vol. 71, no 4, p. 1298-1320Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Political science has long viewed education as an instrumental factor in developing support for democracy and beneficial for democratization. However, governments, both democratic and authoritarian, have substantial control over the curriculum and develop education institutions with the specific aim to instill in students the norms and values that underpin the regime. With this in mind, this study asks, does the effect of education vary by the political regime in which education was undertaken? We use a quasi-experimental approach exploiting European compulsory schooling reforms, implemented under both democratic and authoritarian regimes, to answer this question. We find that education has no effect on principle and functional support for democracy, but that education’s effect on satisfaction with democracy is conditional on regime type. For those educated under a democratic regime, education led to greater satisfaction with democracy, whereas those educated under an authoritarian regime became less satisfied with democracy.

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    fulltext
  • 4235.
    Östervall, Matz
    Uppsala University, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    Tidsvarierande terminspremie: - en undersökning av den svenska aktiemarknaden2002Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (One Year))Student thesis
  • 4236.
    Östros, Sara
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    Giertz-Olohan, Josephine
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    Hur påverkas kvinnors arbetskraftsutbud vid en förändring av relativpriset för barnomsorg?: En studie om det kommunala vårdnadsbidragets effekt på kvinnors arbetskraftsutbud2019Independent thesis Basic level (degree of Bachelor), 10 credits / 15 HE creditsStudent thesis
    Abstract [sv]

    Policy- och lagförändringar kan förändra incitamenten för att arbeta. Syftet med studien är att undersöka hur förändringen i relativpriset för barnomsorg, till följd av införandet av det kommunala vårdnadsbidraget, påverkade kvinnors arbetskraftsutbud. Genom en difference-in- differences-metod med fixa effekter estimeras den genomsnittliga effekten på andelen förvärvsarbetande samt andelen inskrivet arbetslösa bland kvinnor i Sverige. Data är aggregerat på kommunnivå och arbetskraftsutbudet studeras bland kvinnor födda i Sverige samt bland kvinnor födda utanför EU/EFTA uppdelat efter högsta avklarad utbildningsnivå. Studiens huvudsakliga resultat visar att vårdnadsbidraget har haft en effekt på arbetskraftsutbudet där andelen förvärvsarbetande ökade bland kvinnor födda utanför EU/EFTA men minskade bland kvinnor födda i Sverige. Den inskrivna arbetslösheten minskade främst bland lågutbildade kvinnor födda utanför EU/EFTA och för kvinnor födda i Sverige.

  • 4237.
    Özen, Erkan
    Uppsala University, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    Finns det anomalier på Stockholms fondbörs?2002Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (One Year))Student thesis
  • 4238.
    Žamac, Jovan
    Uppsala University, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    Education, Pensions, and Demography2007Doctoral thesis, monograph (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    This dissertation comprises three essays on demography and intergenerational transfers.

    Essay 1 investigates the general equilibrium effects of a fertility shock under different intergenerational transfer schemes; where the workers provide for the young and the retired. The analysis concerns the closed economy where fertility fluctuations affect factor prices, besides intergenerational flows. How savings, factor prices, and growth evolve does not only differ quantitatively but could also differ qualitatively, depending on intergenerational transfers. How sensitive the results are to different assumptions about intergenerational transfers depends on how education investments affect future productivity.

    Essay 2 compares alternative designs of an unfunded pension system. The objective is to maximize the expected ex-ante welfare under stochastic fertility. The model is a three-period CGE framework where the financing of education and effects on factor prices are accounted for. Factor prices depend on the degree of capital mobility. For low degrees of capital mobility, it is optimal to have a fixed benefit rate in the pension system. But for the small open economy, a fixed contribution rate is optimal if the education system has a fixed benefit rate. In this case individuals in the small open economy are unaffected by fertility fluctuations.

    Essay 3 considers how to design unfunded pension system with respect to longevity uncertainty. The aim is to find the optimal design of behind the veil of ignorance.

    The model is a computable overlapping generations model where the effects on labor supply and human capital are accounted for. Individuals decision to enter and exit the labor force is endogenous. Results show that it is important to be able to alter the retirement time in response to a longevity shock. When this is possible then there is no

    crucial difference between the different pension designs. If it is not possible to alter the retirement time then the fixed benefit rate is preferred. This means that pensions should not change when old age dependency changes but that taxes should adjust instead. In this case the design of the pension system will also have an impact on the labor supply.

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