The Swedish Traffic Administration Region North requested an examination the conditions for a fast-cycling connection between Umeå and Vännäs in Västerbotten County. The distance between the locations is about 35 km. The towns are now linked by the road E12 which is not suitable for cycling, but along the E-road there remains parts of the old country road that runs through several small towns. These country roads have very low traffic flows and should be suitable for commuter cycling for adults, but in a few locations crossing of, or cycling along, the E12 is required. This study has focused on the following issues:
- Is there a potential for bicycle commuting up to 35 km?
- Is the tool GC-kalk and its methodology for socio-economic calculations suitable for cases of cycling commuting in rural areas and subarctic climate?
- What level of investment measures in rural areas in a subarctic climate are viable from a cost-benefit analysis perspective?
- How much can the benefits be increased through maintenance measures which extend the cycling season?
This is a case study, centred on socio-economic calculations made with the Swedish Transport Administration's calculation tool GC-kalk, version 1.2. This is a qualitative analysis of quantified aspects: socio-economic calculations have been carried out using the Swedish Transport Administration's tools partly based on the Swedish Transport Administration's data and templates for calculations, and partly with other values based on literature studies and from publications of the municipalities concerned. Travel patterns were obtained as secondary data from Statistics Sweden via the Municipality of Umeå. To test the influence of alternative values in addition to main analyses according to the Swedish Transport Administration's normal methods for GC-kalk, other sensitivity analyses have been performed where specific parameters have been adjusted one by one. The results of the calculations are analysed partly to assess the cost-benefit viability of the measures, but also to assess the validity of the calculation tool and the calculation methods.
The study was conducted mainly during the spring of 2015. Some revisions were made prior to the approval in 2019, but the study is based on the conditions in the spring of 2015. In this study, only the benefit of increased commuting cycling is considered. Cycling for exercise or recreation is not taken into account. Also, no potential benefit to pedestrians is considered. Geographically, the study is delimited to the countryside between Umeå and Vännäsby. Also, a new bridge over the river Vindelälven is not included in the cost as a separate project for that was already underway. Costs for land acquisition and planning have also been omitted.
The study concludes that there is potential for some bicycle commuting at distances up to 35 km. The majority of the population in Sweden would probably not choose to cycle if they have 30 kilometres or more to commute daily, especially not with a traditional safety cycle. But the literature study shows that some few per cent of commuters in Sweden commutes by bike at a distance over 20 km in the summertime. It is also clear that the cycle as a vehicle is constantly evolving and that electric assistance and more aerodynamic and weather-protected bikes drastically increase the range for commuter cycling. Thus, during the snow-free season, there is potential for at least a few percent of commuting trips of 35 km to be made with some form of cycle. In winter, there does not appear to be any commuting at such distances at present, but if roads conditions corresponding to summer roads can be maintained, it is not unlikely that some bicycle commuting can also take place during winter.
GC-kalk has several shortcomings regarding effects that are directly linked to traffic, among other things that it does not take into account the impact of the climate and that speed is based on urban conditions and only one type of bicycle. The validity of the tool can therefore be considered relatively low for analysis of rural measures in subarctic climate. Reliability is strongly dependent on the reliability of the parameters in the model. Existing manuals and templates promote calculations to be carried out in a consistent manner, but aspects such as waiting times at the intersection lack templates so the calculations are dependent on subjective values to some extent. The lack of a standardized input network also contributes to making the tool less reliable than, for example, the tool EVA that is used for calculations for motor traffic. At present, however, there seems to be no other tool in Sweden than GC-kalk for calculating the benefits of bicycle measures. Therefore, a better model and a better knowledge base, and thus more research, is needed.
The results of the calculations for the studied route between Umeå and Vännäs indicate that measures that complements the existing road network should be render more benefits than costs. In sparsely populated places in cold climates, it is however usually not likely that separated bike lanes other than in urban areas would be render more benefits than costs.
The calculated results show that cycling during the snow-free period may be sufficient for cycling measures to render more benefits than costs. But they also show that the benefits can be significantly increased through maintenance measures that extend the cycling season. In the studied case, the benefit of extending the cycling season from 106 days (for which the snow-free season is calculated) to 232 days (the default value in GC-kalk) will be about SEK 40 per meter if it is distributed throughout the entire route. This is significantly higher than both the Swedish Transport Administration's figure of SEK 15 per meter per year for snow removal and the ditto figure from the municipality of Umeå of SEK 33 per meter per year. The Swedish Transport Administration and other road maintainers should thus be able to add significantly more winter road maintenance for cyclists without causing the costs to exceed the benefits.
The sensitivity analyses of the effect of speed change due to measures also shows that the effect of increasing the average speed by only 1 km / h can amount to several hundred thousand SEK per year. This means that maintenance measures that ensure that cyclists do not need to slow down due to, for example, snow, slippery autumn leaves, or crumbling paving can provide significant benefits.
A further conclusion in addition to the answers to the posed research questions is that there is a plethora of bicycle types catering to various transportation needs, but current design guidelines for road infrastructure in Sweden only take into account standard cycles. Not even bicycles with trailers, which can be considered a fairly established vehicle combination, are mentioned in the Swedish Transport Administration's main design guidelines, Vägar och Gators Utformning (VGU). There is thus a risk that the infrastructure being built will not be suitable for, for example, wide cargo bikes or aerodynamic recumbent bicycles. This could hinder both families with children from choosing a bicycle instead of a car as well as citizens who want to commute by bicycle at a longer distance. It is therefore important to either redefine the type vehicle bicycle in VGU and other design guidelines to reflect the characteristics of all bicycle types, or to divide bicycles into multiple type vehicles.