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  • 251.
    Andersson, Petra
    Uppsala University, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    Unemployment hysteresis: an empirical studiy of 24 Swedish counties2002Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (One Year))Student thesis
  • 252.
    Andersson, Sara
    Uppsala University, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    HIV/AIDS och ekonomisk tillväxt: En teoretisk diskussion utifrån neoklassisk tillväxtteori med fokus på relationen mellan HIV/AIDS, kapital och ekonomisk tillväxttakt i södra och östra Afrika2006Independent thesis Basic level (degree of Bachelor), 10 credits / 15 HE creditsStudent thesis
    Abstract [es]

    I denna uppsats utreds effekterna av HIV/AIDS på tillväxt i södra och östra Afrika. Detta sker via en teoretisk undersökning av effekterna på fysiskt, humant och socialt kapital som är tre viktiga bakomliggande faktorer som påverkar ekonomisk tillväxt. Resultatet av studien är att HIV/AIDS troligen har negativ verkan på alla dessa tre typer av kapital, men att det är effekterna på humant och socialt kapital som får långsiktiga ekonomiska följder i form av lägre ekonomisk tillväxttakt i länderna i fråga.

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    FULLTEXT01
  • 253.
    Andersson, Sofie
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    The matching process in the Swedish labour market: A study of the matching efficiency´s development over time and the regional differences2015Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (Two Years)), 20 credits / 30 HE creditsStudent thesis
    Abstract [en]

    Purpose: Estimate the matching efficiency on the Swedish labour market to see how it has developed over time as well as determine whether there are any regional differences. I will use a panel data set extending from January 1996 to December 2014 on county level.

    Method: Estimate labour market matching functions with a fixed effects model including dummy variables for each county, year and month in order to capture the region and time fixed effects.

    Result: The results indicate that the labour market matching process has impaired during recent years where a significant decrease occurred between the years 2004 and 2005. Since then, the matching efficiency has continued to decrease, thus implying that structural changes have occurred in the labour market. The regional differences in matching efficiency between the Swedish counties still exist when comparing the results to previous studies’ conclusions. Blekinge continues to be in the bottom with the lowest matching efficiency whilst Jämtland is still in the lead. The biggest decrease can be seen in Gotland. Some minor improvements have occurred, mainly amongst the big city counties.

  • 254.
    Andersson, Sofie
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    Buhr-Berg, Johanna
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    Are There Any Variables Not Yet Tested That Can Help Explain Real Estate Price Variation?: -An econometric analysis of real estate prices in Stockholm2013Independent thesis Basic level (degree of Bachelor), 10 credits / 15 HE creditsStudent thesis
    Abstract [en]

    Aim: The purpose of this study is to find new variables that can help explain the variation in the prices of apartments in the county of Stockholm.

    Method: By using recreated variables from an existing model created by Claussen, Jonsson and Lagerwall (2011) on behalf of Sweden’s central bank, and adding new variables obtained by the realtor Erik Olsson and the housing ad website Hemnet, the goal is to find a model that explains as much of the price variation as possible. The accuracy of the model is tested by an out-of- sample forecast. The study is based on monthly data for the years 2008 up until February 2013 and is written in cooperation with Valueguard.

    Findings: By combining the two data sets the adjusted coefficient of determination was 0,703, which means that 70,3% of the variation in the prices can be explained by the model.

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    Buhr-Berg&Andersson
  • 255.
    Andersson, Thea
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    Kön i toppen av inkomstfördelningen: Glastaket, Skandinavien och Europa.2015Independent thesis Basic level (degree of Bachelor), 10 credits / 15 HE creditsStudent thesis
    Abstract [sv]

    I uppsatsen testas två teser: om det finns belägg för ett glastak bland 17 Europeiska länder och om detta glastak kan sägas vara starkare i Skandinavien än på kontinenten. Uppsatsen utreder sannolikheten att ingå de tio olika inkomstdecilerna med fokus på individer längst upp i inkomstfördelningen med hjälp av ca 60 000 observationer ur datamaterialet PIAAC (Programme for the International Assessment of Adult Competencies). Sannolikheten testas med två regressionsmodeller, en linjär och en multinominell logaritmisk regression. Resultatet bekräftar förekomsten av ett glastak och att detta tak är starkare i Skandinavien. När samma tests görs för varje enskilt land är resultatet att fler Europeiska länder än de Skandinaviska har ett "tjockare glastak" vilket skulle innebära att det inte är fruktsamt att definiera det Skandinaviska glastaket som ett unikt fenomen i förhållande till glastak på kontinenten.

  • 256. Andersson, Tommy
    et al.
    Ellingsen, Tore
    Fredriksson, Peter
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    Mörk, Eva
    Uppsala University, Units outside the University, The Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy (IFAU). Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics, Uppsala Center for Fiscal Studies.
    Persson, Torsten
    Strömberg, Per
    Werner, Ingrid
    2020 års Ekonomipris till Paul Milgrom och Robert Wilson2020In: Ekonomisk Debatt, ISSN 0345-2646, Vol. 48, no 8, p. 5-12Article in journal (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
    Abstract [sv]

    Kungl. Vetenskapsakademien har beslutat dela ut årets Ekonomipris till Paul Milgrom och Robert Wilson, båda från Stanford University, USA, för ”förbättringar av auktionsteorin och uppfinningar av nya auktionsformat”. Årets pristagare har i sin forskning sammanfört teori och praktik, till nytta för enskilda individer, företag och samhällen världen över.

  • 257.
    Andersson, Tommy
    et al.
    Lund Univ, Lund, Sweden..
    Erlanson, Albin
    Univ Essex, Colchester, Essex, England..
    Östling, Robert
    Stockholm Sch Econ, Stockholm, Sweden..
    Spiro, Daniel
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    A Simple Model of the Production-health Trade-off During an Epidemic2022In: Economics Bulletin, E-ISSN 1545-2921, Vol. 42, no 1, p. 224-231Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The purpose of this paper is to simplify the standard framework integrating epidemiological and economic concerns. We present a model where a social planner can influence the spread-intensity of an infection wave through a single parameter. The spread-intensity affects both economic activity and population health. We study the planner's optimal trade-off between upholding economic activity and preserving population health and show analytically that the solution has a natural interpretation with intuitive comparative statics.

  • 258. Andersson, Tommy
    et al.
    Fredriksson, Peter
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics. Kommittén för priset i ekonomisk vetenskap till Alfred Nobels minne.
    Hassler, John
    Johansson, Per
    Krusell, Per
    Mörk, Eva
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics. Kommittén för priset i ekonomisk vetenskap till Alfred Nobels minne.
    Svensson, Jakob
    Werner, Ingrid
    2021 års ekonomipris till David Card, Joshua Angrist och Guido Imbens2021In: Ekonomisk Debatt, ISSN 0345-2646, Vol. 49, no 8, p. 5-17Article in journal (Other academic)
  • 259.
    Andersson, Victor
    Uppsala University, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    Macroeconomic News and Stock Market Responses2003Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (One Year))Student thesis
  • 260.
    Andersson, Viktor
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    Bergman, Mårten
    Uppsala University, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    Currency Crisis in Sweden and THailand - same but different?2002Independent thesis Basic level (degree of Bachelor)Student thesis
  • 261.
    Andersson, Yngve
    Uppsala University, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    Hur påverkas konsumenten/skattebetalaren?1998In: Ch. 14 in Agenda 2000 - några konsekvenser för svenskt jordbruk, Fritzes Förslag, Stockholm , 1998, Vol. 1998, no 69Chapter in book (Other scientific)
  • 262.
    Andersson, Yngve
    Uppsala University, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    Impact on Consumers and Taxpayers1998In: Ch. 14 in Agenda 2000 - with Reference to Swedish Agriculture, Fritzes Förlag, Stockholm , 1998, Vol. 1998, no 70Chapter in book (Other scientific)
  • 263.
    Anderzén, Ingrid
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Medicine and Pharmacy, Faculty of Medicine, Department of Public Health and Caring Sciences, Social Medicine.
    Demmelmaier, Ingrid
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Medicine and Pharmacy, Faculty of Medicine, Department of Public Health and Caring Sciences, Caring Sciences.
    Hansson, Ann-Sophie
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Medicine and Pharmacy, Faculty of Medicine, Department of Public Health and Caring Sciences, Social Medicine.
    Johansson, Per
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics. Uppsala University, Units outside the University, Office of Labour Market Policy Evaluation.
    Lindahl, Erica
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics. Uppsala University, Units outside the University, Office of Labour Market Policy Evaluation.
    Winblad, Ulrika
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Medicine and Pharmacy, Faculty of Medicine, Department of Public Health and Caring Sciences, Health Services Research.
    Samverkan i Resursteam: effekter på organisation, hälsa och sjukskrivning2008Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [sv]

    Vi utvärderar samverkansformen Resursteam, som bedrivits som ett försök för att minska långa sjukskrivningar. Resursteam innebär att ett team med hand-läggare från Försäkringskassan, husläkare, sjukgymnast och beteendevetare, vid regelbundna möten bedömer sjukskrivna personers rehabiliteringsbehov och ger förslag på åtgärder. Det övergripande syftet är att skatta effekten av Resursteam på den försäkrades sjukskrivningslängd och självskattade hälsa. Vi har genomfört (i) en kartläggning av verksamheten, (ii) en enkätstudie till sjuk-skrivna som deltagit i Resursteam och till jämförelsepersoner samt (ii) skattat effekten av Resursteam på självskattad hälsa och sjukskrivning. Resultaten är entydiga och visar på inga eller negativa effekter för de personer som ingått i Resursteam. Som exempel kan nämnas att tiden i sjukskrivning förlängs med cirka 20 procent i genomsnitt.

  • 264.
    Andhult, Elias
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    Påverkar ägandet avkastningen?: En studie om sambandet mellan börsbolags ägarstrukturer vid IPO:er och dess avkastning2023Independent thesis Basic level (degree of Bachelor), 10 credits / 15 HE creditsStudent thesis
    Abstract [sv]

    Uppsatsen undersöker huruvida det finns signifikanta skillnader i avkastning hos bolag som noterats av riskkapitalbolag, samt huruvida det finns signifikanta skillnader i avkastning hos bolag som noterats av dess grundare. Vidare undersöker även uppsatsen huruvida det finns signifikanta skillnader i avkastning hos bolag där olika typer av ankarinvesterare åtagit sig att teckna aktier i samband med en IPO. Uppsatsen har angripit frågeställningarna via ett kvantitativt tillvägagångsätt där data över ägarstrukturer före IPO:n, insynsägande samt ankarinvesterares teckningsåtaganden insamlats från respektive bolags prospekt. Bolagen som ingår i datamaterialet har avgränsats till bolag som genomfört en IPO på Stockholmsbörsen under perioden 1 januari 2018 till 31 december 2022. Uppsatsens resultat antyder att bolag som börsnoterats av riskkapitalbolag genererar lägre avkastning än marknadsportföljen. Vidare redovisar uppsatsen att bolag som noterats av dess grundare genererar högre avkastning än marknadsportföljen, samt att det inte verkar finnas ett samband mellan antalet ankarinvesterare och aktiens avkastning. 

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  • 265.
    Ando, Michihito
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    Dreams of urbanization: Quantitative case studies on the local impacts of nuclear power facilities using the synthetic control method2015In: Journal of Urban Economics, ISSN 0094-1190, E-ISSN 1095-9068, Vol. 85, p. 68-85Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper uses the synthetic control (SC) method to examine how the establishment of nuclear power facilities (NPFs) in Japan in the 1970s and 1980s has affected local per capita income levels in the municipalities in which they were localted (NPF municipalities). Eight quantitative case studies using the SC method clarify that the effects of NPF establishment on per capita taxable income levels are highly heterogeneous. The estimated effects are often economically meaningful and in some cases huge: the income level was 11% higher on average and 62% higher in one municipality in 2002 when compared with counterfactual units. On the other hand a few of the NPF municipalities have received only weak or negligible effects from NPF establishment. The post-estimation comparisons of employment between the NPF municipalities and the SC units suggest that the size of the direct labor demand shocks and subsequent indirect employment effects on nontradable service sectors have contributed to the increase in per capita income levels.

  • 266.
    Ando, Michihito
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    Essays on the Evaluation of Public Policies2015Doctoral thesis, monograph (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    This thesis consists of four self-contained papers.

    Essay 1: This paper uses the synthetic control (SC) method to examine how the establishment of Nuclear Power Facilities (NPFs) in Japan in the 1970s and 1980s has affected local per capita income levels in the municipalities in which they were located (NPF municipalities). Eight quantitative case studies using the SC method clarify that the effects of NPF establishment on per capita taxable income levels are highly heterogeneous. The estimated effects are often economically meaningful and in some cases huge: the income level was 11% higher on average and 62% higher in one municipality in 2002 when compared with counterfactual units. On the other hand a few of the NPF municipalities have received only weak or negligible effects from NPF establishment. The post-estimation comparisons of employment between the NPF municipalities and the SC units suggest that the size of the direct labor demand shocks and subsequent indirect employment effects on nontradable service sectors have contributed to the increase in per capita income levels.

    Essay 2: In a regression kink (RK) design with a finite sample, a confounding smooth nonlinear relationship between an assignment variable and an outcome variable around a threshold can be spuriously picked up as a kink and result in a biased estimate. In order to investigate how well RK designs handle such confounding nonlinearity, I firstly implement Monte Carlo simulations and then study the effect of fiscal equalization grants on local expenditure in Japan using an RK design. Results in both the Monte Carlo simulations and the empirical application suggest that RK estimation without covariates can be easily biased, and this problem can be mitigated by adding basic covariates to the regressors. On the other hand, a smaller bandwidth or a higher order polynomial, even a quadratic polynomial, tends to result in imprecise estimates although they may be able to reduce estimation bias. In sum, RK estimation with a confounding nonlinearity often suffers from bias or imprecision and estimates are credible only when relevant covariates are controlled for.

    Essay 3: This paper investigates the effects of fiscal equalization grants on total expenditure and disaggregated expenditures by exploiting two different formula-based exogenous variations in grants. Examining the institutional settings of the Japanese fiscal equalization scheme and estimating local average grant effects with a regression kink design and an instrumental variable approach, I demonstrate that there exist heterogeneous grant effects for two groups of municipalities with different fiscal conditions. That is, estimated grant effects on total expenditure are approximately one-to-one for municipalities around the threshold of grant eligibility, but much more than one-to-one for municipalities that are heavily dependent on fiscal equalization grants. In addition, grant effects on disaggregated expenditures are dispersed across different expenditure items in the former type of municipality but concentrated on construction expenditures in the latter type. I then discuss that the observed grant effect heterogeneity is a consequence of the institutional settings of the Japanese fiscal equalization scheme.

    Essay 4 (with Reo Takaku): We evaluate the impact of patient cost sharing on the use of dentures and subjective chewing ability exploiting a sharp reduction in the coinsurance rate, the percentage of costs born by the user, from 30% to 10% at the age of 70 with a regression discontinuity design. Using data from the Japanese Study of Aging and Retirement (JSTAR), we find that the utilization rate of dentures increases from approximately 50% to 63% around the threshold, implying that the extensive margin elasticity of denture usage with respect to the coinsurance rate is about -0.41. In addition, we find this jump is almost entirely due to the change in the rate among women. On the other hand, we do not find a significant improvement in self-reported chewing ability. Our empirical findings are also confirmed by complementary analysis with randomization tests and placebo randomization tests.

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  • 267.
    Ando, Michihito
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    Estimating the effects of nuclear power facilities on local income levels: A quasi-experimental approach2013Report (Other academic)
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  • 268.
    Ando, Michihito
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics, Uppsala Center for Fiscal Studies.
    How Much Should We Trust Regression-Kink-Design Estimates?2013Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    In a Regression Kink (RK) design with a finite sample, a confounding smooth nonlinear relationship between an assignment variable and an outcome variable around a threshold can be spuriously picked up as a kink and result in a biased estimate. In order to investigate how well RK designs handle such confounding nonlinearity, I firstly implement Monte Carlo simulations and then study the effect of fiscal equalization grants on local expenditure using a RK design. Results suggest that RK estimation with a confounding nonlinearity often suffers from bias or imprecision and estimates are credible only when relevant covariates are controlled for.

    Download full text (pdf)
    UCFS_201315_2_corrected
  • 269.
    Ando, Michihito
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute for Housing and Urban Research. Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    How Much Should We Trust Regression-Kink-Design Estimates?2013Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    In a Regression Kink (RK) design with a finite sample, a confounding smooth nonlinear relationship between an assignment variable and an outcome variable around a threshold can be spuriously picked up as a kink and result in a biased estimate. In order to investigate how well RK designs handle such confounding nonlinearity, I firstly implement Monte Carlo simulations and then study the effect of fiscal equalization grants on local expenditure using a RK design. Results suggest that RK estimation with a confounding nonlinearity often suffers from bias or imprecision and estimates are credible only when relevant covariates are controlled for.

    Download full text (pdf)
    fulltext
  • 270.
    Ando, Michihito
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics. National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, Japan.
    Dahlberg, Matz
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute for Housing and Urban Research.
    Engström, Gustav
    The Beijer Institute of Ecological Economics.
    The Risks of Nuclear Disaster and Its Impact on Housing Prices2017Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Using a data set on housing sales transactions we explore the potentialeeffct of the Fukushima disaster on housing prices in Sweden. Incontrast to most earlier findings in other countries we do not find anydisproportionate effect from the Fukushima disaster on housing prices in vicinity of nuclear power plants in Sweden.

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  • 271.
    Ando, Michihito
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics. National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, Japan.
    Dahlberg, Matz
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute for Housing and Urban Research.
    Engström, Gustav
    The Beijer Institute of Ecological Economics.
    The Risks of Nuclear Disaster and Its Impact on Housing Prices2017In: Economics Letters, ISSN 0165-1765, E-ISSN 1873-7374, Vol. 154, p. 13-16Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Using a data set on housing sales transactions we explore the potential effect of the Fukushima disaster on housing prices in Sweden. In contrast to most earlier findings in other countries we do not find any disproportionate effect from the Fukushima disaster on housing prices in vicinity of nuclear power plants in Sweden.

  • 272.
    Andone, Irina
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    "Exchange Rate Regimes and Inflation Performance"2015Licentiate thesis, monograph (Other academic)
  • 273.
    Andone, Irina
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    Exchange Rates, Exports, Inflation, and International Monetary Cooperation2018Doctoral thesis, monograph (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    This thesis consists of three self-contained essays.

     

    Essay I: Exchange rate movements often cause anxiety among policy-makers, given the strong link between currency movements and export competitiveness, which may, in turn, affect economic growth. In this paper, I examine the strength of the effect of exchange rate movements on exports combining firm-level export data with an industry-level competitiveness index. The data span a broad sample of countries, comprising 21 advanced and 21 emerging market economies over the period 1989-2013. My findings suggest an economically and statistically significant negative effect of real appreciation on real exports. The effect is significantly larger for emerging markets as compared to advanced economies. ​Additionally, the results suggest that larger firms are particularly affected by exchange rate movements.

    Essay II: Simulations of a small open economy model à la Gali and Monacelli (2005) suggest that inflation should display similar levels, but higher volatility and higher persistence under a fixed exchange rate regime compared to a regime with a flexible exchange rate and some form of inflation targeting. I test these predictions using data for two clearly defined exchange rate regimes. One regime is the membership in the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), which implies an irrevocably fixed exchange rate. The other is a flexible exchange rate with inflation targeting. The empirical analysis confirms the theoretical implications of the model in terms of persistence: inflation displays a higher degree of persistence in countries with a fixed exchange rate regime.

    Essay III (with Beatrice Scheubel): While the consequences and effectiveness of IMF conditionality have long constituted the focus of research, the possible negative impact of IMF conditionality on countries' willingness to start an IMF program has mainly focused on a country's own past experience. However, the recent policy debate has highlighted the existence of regional effects, unrelated to a country's own experience. In this paper, we investigate how past experience with IMF conditionality – own and peers' – affects countries' likelihood of signing an IMF arrangement again. Our results indicate strong learning from own experience, but hardly any learning from peers, except for members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). We conjecture that a negative effect associated with IMF conditionality may exist for individual country cases or specific regions, but that a more general effect cannot be related to observing how the IMF treats peers.

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  • 274.
    André, Hugo
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    The Effect of Growth on the Capital Stock: Comparing the Predictions of Piketty’s Second Law to Solow and Ramsey2015Independent thesis Basic level (degree of Bachelor), 10 credits / 15 HE creditsStudent thesis
    Abstract [en]

    In this paper I look at the connection between the steady-state growth rate and the Capital/Income ratio. The focus in particular is on how Piketty’s second fundamental law of capitalism differs from the conventional Solow and Ramsey models as well as how well it fits with statistical data. My conclusion is that the second fundamental law exhibits a substantial difference compared to the other two in how the Capital/Income ratio, Gross Savings rate and Net Savings rate are affected by a change in the rate of growth. It does not appear to be consistent with the data either from the Pennsylvania World Tables database or Piketty’s own statistics both of which are more similar to the Solow and Ramsey models’ predictions.

  • 275.
    Andrén, Erica
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    Impact of Covid-19 of housing preferences in Sweden2022Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (Two Years)), 20 credits / 30 HE creditsStudent thesis
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  • 276.
    Andrén, Joel
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    Territorial stigmatization, student performance and crime: Estimating the effect of territorial stigmatization on crime and student performance2021Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (Two Years)), 20 credits / 30 HE creditsStudent thesis
    Abstract [en]

    This study provides a novel method for estimating the effect of territorial stigmatization on crime and student performance using the DID strategy. I exploit the Swedish police classification of ”exposed areas” as an instrument to capture exogenous changes in the degree of stigmatization of certain areas. The results suggest that territorial stigmatization does not affect student performance or crime. 

  • 277.
    Angelov, Nikolay
    Uppsala University, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    Essays on Unit-Root Testing and on Discrete-Response Modelling of Firm Mergers2006Doctoral thesis, monograph (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Essay 1 investigates the time-series properties of the price of iron ore. The focus is on unit-root testing in the presence of a structural break. Unit-root tests with or without structural breaks are applied to historical prices of five different qualities of Swedish and Brazilian iron ore. Tests with exogenous or endogenous breaks are analyzed. Using unit-root tests allowing for an exogenous structural break in 1973, the year of the oil-price shock, the null hypothesis of a unit root is rejected for three of the five series. The sign and nature of the estimated breaks correspond to the state of the iron and steel industry during the oil-price shock.

    Essay 2 was co-authored with Rolf Larsson and deals with the issue of unit-root tests involving several parameters of the model. In a first order autoregressive model with drift or drift and trend, we derive the likelihood ratio test for a unit root against the stationary alternative. We also derive the test in a state space model with trend. Finite sample and asymptotic critical values are obtained by Monte Carlo simulations, and we examine the power performance of the likelihood ratio test.

    Essay 3 proposes a way to model firm mergers using the roommate matching game, whereby firms make preference rankings of potential merger partners. Given firms' preferences, game-theoretic mechanisms lead to a matching implying that each firm is either self-matched or assigned a merger partner. We derive expressions for the probability of a merger between a specific firm pair, and also a log-likelihood function for estimation using firm-specific data. The model's finite-sample properties are examined.

    The roommate game results in a complicated log-likelihood function, which places restrictions on the number of firms. Consequently, the model proposed in Essay 4 defines a different set of game rules. Using a mechanism of bid proposals among firms, we define a condition for firm acquisitions in terms of profit index comparisons. The resulting log-likelihood function is applicable to any number of firms, and the acquisition model is estimated on a panel data set consisting of European firms from the pulp and paper industry.

  • 278.
    Angelov, Nikolay
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    Modelling Firm Mergers As A Roommate Problem2006Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    We propose a way to model firm mergers using a matching game known as the roommate problem, whereby firms are assumed to make preference rankings of po- tential merger partners. The position of a firm in another firm’s ranking is assumed to be governed by an index, which in turn consists of a deterministic part and of a stochastic one, similar to the latent indices used in standard discrete-choice models. Given all firms’ preferences, game-theoretic mechanisms lead to a matching whereby each firm is either self-matched or assigned a merger partner. We derive expressions for the probability of a merger between a specific firm pair, and also a log-likelihood function for estimation using firm-specific data. Using a simulation in a setting with groups of three firms involved in roommate games within each group, the model’s finite-sample properties are examined.

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  • 279.
    Angelov, Nikolay
    Uppsala University, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    Structural Breaks in Iron-Ore Prices: The Impact of the 1973 Oil Crisis2003Licentiate thesis, monograph (Other scientific)
  • 280.
    Angelov, Nikolay
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    Structural Breaks In Iron-Ore Prices: The Impact Of The 1973 Oil Crisis2006Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper investigates the time-series properties of the price of iron ore. The focus is on testing a unit-root null hypothesis against a trend-stationary alternative, with a structural break allowed under both hypotheses. We consider unit-root tests with or without structural breaks, applied on historical prices of five different qualities of Swedish and Brazilian iron ore. New and more accurate critical values for the exogenous-break tests are calculated, and several of the asymptotic tests are accompanied by their bootstrap counterparts due to the limited sample sizes.

    Using unit-root tests allowing for an exogenous structural break in 1973, the null hypothesis of a unit root is rejected for three of the five series. The sign and nature of the estimated breaks correspond to the state of the iron and steel industry during the first half of the 1970s. The bootstrap tests give results close to those from the asymptotic ones.

    Download full text (pdf)
    fulltext
  • 281.
    Angelov, Nikolay
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Units outside the University, The Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy (IFAU). Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    Eliason, Marcus
    Uppsala University, Units outside the University, The Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy (IFAU).
    Wage subsidies targeted to jobseekers with disabilities: subsequent employment and disability retirement2018In: IZA Journal of Labor Policy, E-ISSN 2193-9004, Vol. 7, article id UNSP 12Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In many countries, a non-negligible percentage of the working-age population has impairments that also entail reduced work capacity, and disability retirement is increasing. Despite this, studies on the effects of policies aimed at enhancing the labour market inclusion among people with disabilities, such as targeted wage subsidies, are surprisingly few. In an attempt to fill this gap, we have studied how wage subsidies affect future labour market outcomes for jobseekers with disabilities, in terms of employment and disability retirement. By using inverse probability weighting applied to rich Swedish register data, we contrast participants in the wage subsidy program to observably similar non-participants during a 19-year period. We find that participation was associated with both positive and negative labour market outcomes. On the negative side, participants were less likely to have unsubsidised employment. On the positive side, leaving the labour market through the disability insurance program was somewhat less common among participants. Moreover, using a broader employment measure including subsidised jobs, the participants were found to be employed to a larger extent, which could be interpreted either as locking-in effects or as fostering labour market inclusion.

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    FULLTEXT01
  • 282.
    Angelov, Nikolay
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics. Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics, Uppsala Center for Labor Studies (UCLS).
    Johansson, Per
    Uppsala University, Units outside the University, The Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy (IFAU). Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics. Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics, Uppsala Center for Labor Studies (UCLS).
    Lee, Myoung-jae
    Korea Univ, Seoul, South Korea.
    Practical causal analysis for the treatment timing effect on doubly censored duration: effect of fertility on work span2019In: Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society), ISSN 0964-1998, E-ISSN 1467-985X, Vol. 182, no 4, p. 1561-1585Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We present a practical causal framework to estimate the effects of a treatment and its timing on a doubly censored response. We then apply the methodology to find the effect of fertility on work duration where, not just fertility itself, but the timing of fertility should matter greatly. Since fertility and its decision of timing are chosen by the individual, it is likely to be endogenous. We use a populationwide data set over mothers with two children to address the endogeneity issue by using the first two children's same-sex instrument in a 'control function' setting. We find that having a third child reduces the average labour market work duration, and that the magnitude of the effect increases monotonically with the waiting time between the second and third children. Moreover, the negative effect varies substantially over education and second-birth age, being stronger for mothers with higher education and lower second-birth age.

  • 283.
    Angelov, Nikolay
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    Larsson, Rolf
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Information Science, Statistics.
    Testing for unit root against stationarity using the likelihood ratio test2007In: Communications in statistics. Simulation and computation, ISSN 0361-0918, E-ISSN 1532-4141, Vol. 36, no 2, p. 391-412Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In a first order autoregressive model with drift, we derive the likelihood ratio test for a unit root against the stationary alternative. We also derive the test in a state space model with trend. Finite sample and asymptotic critical values are obtained by Monte Carlo simulations. A simulation study investigates the power performance of the likelihood ratio test and we also examine how a bias correction of the test affects the results.

  • 284.
    Angelov, Nikolay
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics, Uppsala Center for Fiscal Studies.
    Waldenström, Daniel
    COVID-19 and income inequality: evidence from monthly population registers2023In: Journal of Economic Inequality, ISSN 1569-1721, E-ISSN 1573-8701, Vol. 21, no 2, p. 351-379Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We measure the distributional impact of the COVID-19 pandemic using newly released population register data in Sweden. Monthly earnings inequality increased during the pandemic, and the key driver is income losses among low-paid individuals while middle- and high-income earners were almost unaffected. In terms of employment, as measured by having positive monthly earnings, the pandemic had a larger negative impact on private-sector workers and on women. In terms of earnings conditional on being employed, the effect was still more negative for women, but less negative for private-sector workers compared to publicly employed. Using data on individual take-up of government COVID-19 support, we show that policy significantly dampened the inequality increase, but did not fully offset it. Annual total market income inequality, which also includes capital income and taxable transfers, shows similar patterns of increasing inequality during the pandemic. © 2023, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature.

  • 285.
    Angelov, Nikolay
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics, Uppsala Center for Fiscal Studies.
    Waldenström, Daniel
    The impact of Covid-19 on economic activity: evidence from administrative tax registers2023In: International Tax and Public Finance, ISSN 0927-5940, E-ISSN 1573-6970, Vol. 30, no 6, p. 1718-1746Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We use tax-register data on all firms in Sweden to document the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on firm sales, tax payments, and sick pay. The pandemic impact is identified using within-year, between-year, and geographical variation, and we also run placebo tests. Our findings confirm large negative economic effects of the pandemic but shed new light on their magnitudes and sensitivity to Covid-19 morbidity rates. Specifically, we find that VAT and firm sales dropped more than other indicators of corporate activity such as industrial electricity usage or aggregate industrial production. Short-term sick pay increased during the pandemic, but, unlike tax payments, it was insensitive to local infection rates, which indicates behavioral responses to more generous sickness insurance rules during the pandemic. © 2023, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature.

  • 286.
    Angestav, Oscar
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    Dahlqvist, Gustav
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    Sverige och Euron: Har Sverige haft en mer stabil utveckling med egen valuta?2020Independent thesis Basic level (degree of Bachelor), 10 credits / 15 HE creditsStudent thesis
    Abstract [sv]

    Denna c-uppsats syftar till att undersöka huruvida Sverige har haft en stabilare utveckling på grund av att vi stått utanför EMU. För detta syfte genomför vi en komparativ jämförelse med Finland, där olika ekonomiska variabler presenteras för Sverige och Finland för att kunna urskilja hur utvecklingen har varit perioden 1990-2019. Vidare konstrueras även en indexserie för att kunna urskilja hur en svensk utveckling hade kunnat se ut ifall Sverige varit medlem i EMU från dess etablering. Med indexserien och en modell som isolerar växelkursens inverkan på BNP undersöks hur stor påverkan växelkursen har på BNP. Detta genererar en möjlighet till att skapa ett kontrafaktiskt scenario där det kan jämföras hur Sverige hade kunnat ha en annorlunda BNP-utveckling om Sverige infört euron som valuta i januari år 1999. Resultatet visar att Sverige har haft en stabilare utveckling utanför EMU, huvudsakligen till följd av att den svenska kronan bidrog till att stabilisera BNP under den globala finanskrisen år 2009.

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    Sverige och Euron - Har Sverige haft en mer stabil utveckling med egen valuta?
  • 287.
    Anil, Kumar
    et al.
    Research Department, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    Liang, Che-Yuan
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    Estimating Taxable Income Responses with Elasticity Heterogeneity2017Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    We explore the implications of heterogeneity in the elasticity of taxable income (ETI) for tax-reform based estimation methods. We theoretically show that existing methods yield elasticities that are biased and lack policy relevance. We illustrate the empirical importance of our theoretical analysis using the NBER tax panel for 1979-1990. We show that elasticity heterogeneity is the main explanation for large differences between estimates in the previous literature. Our preferred, newly suggested method yields elasticity estimates of approximately 0.7 for taxable income and 0.2 for broad income.

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    fulltext
  • 288. Ansala, Laura
    et al.
    Sarvimäki, Matti
    Åslund, Olof
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics. Uppsala University, Units outside the University, The Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy (IFAU).
    Invandringshistoria och nyanländas etablering på arbetsmarknaden2018Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [sv]

    Vi studerar invandrades etablering på arbetsmarknaden, och om denna process är beroende av mottagarlandets invandringshistoria. Studien jämför Sverige och Finland, två länder med liknande arbetsmarknader och institutioner, men med mycket olika erfarenheter av invandring. Trots skillnaderna är likheterna i eta­bleringsprocessen slående. Nyanlända finner ofta sina första jobb i låglöne­företag där chefer och kollegor delar individens utländska bakgrund. Den tid det tar att få sitt första jobb och egenskaperna hos det första jobbet varierar kraftigt beroende på var i världen personen är född. Bakgrunden hos chefer och kollegor och inkomstnivåerna på den första arbetsplatsen förutsäger framtida syssel­sättning och inkomster. Mönstren är likartade i Sverige och Finland vilket kan tolkas som att etablering och segregation till stor del styrs av andra faktorer än invandringshistoria och mångfald i befolkningen.

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    fulltext
  • 289.
    Ansala, Laura
    et al.
    Urban Research and Statistics Unit, City Executive Office, City of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland.
    Åslund, Olof
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics. Uppsala University, Units outside the University, The Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy (IFAU).
    Sarvimäki, Matti
    Aalto University School of Business, VATT Institute for Economic Research; Helsinki Graduate School of Economics, Helsinki, Finland.
    Immigration history, entry jobs and the labor market integration of immigrants2022In: Journal of Economic Geography, ISSN 1468-2702, E-ISSN 1468-2710, Vol. 22, no 3, p. 581-604Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This article studies the relationship between past immigration experiences of the host country and the way new immigrants enter the labor market. We focus on two countries — Finland and Sweden — that have similar formal institutions but starkly different immigration histories. In both countries, immigrants tend to find their first jobs in low-paying establishments, where the manager and colleagues share their ethnic background. The associations between background characteristics, time to a first job, other entry job characteristics, earnings dynamics, and job stability are also remarkably similar. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that the host country’s immigration history plays a limited role in shaping the integration process.

  • 290.
    Antreas, Antonopoulos
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    EU membership and trade: The case of Cyprus2021Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (Two Years)), 20 credits / 30 HE creditsStudent thesis
    Abstract [en]

    Since the occurrence of the global economic crisis in 2008, Europe has been witnessing an unprecedented rise in Euroscepticism. The climax of this phenomenon has been the exit of the United Kingdom from the European Union, an event which is known as Brexit, in January 2019. As there is an ongoing public discussion about the advantages and disadvantages of the EU membership, this article attempts to examine the effects of the EU on trade as to the case of Cyprus. 

  • 291.
    Ao, Fei
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    Essays on Taxation, Externalities, and Poverty Traps2024Doctoral thesis, monograph (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    This thesis consists of three self-contained essays.

    Essay I characterizes the optimal mix of linear commodity taxation and non-linear income taxation in a dynamic economy where consumption gives rise to positional and environmental externalities. Both externalities are modeled as stock-externalities by reflecting people's present and past consumption. With non-atmospheric positional externalities, the principle of targeting does not apply, which means that the policy rules for all tax instruments are adjusted in response to the positional externality. The results of the model imply simultaneous motives for corrective taxation, which interacts in an important way.

    Essay II presents a poverty trap model at the firm level, which is driven by time capacity constraints, and involves the optimal allocation of time between a basic and a more-productive business. To operate the more-productive business requires additional time input but enhances the ability to process information in the future, which in turn, determines the firm's time capacity. As a result, a firm with a low ability may encounter challenges in expanding time capacity for further growth. We highlight the importance of passing proficiency thresholds in operating the more-productive business to achieve sustainable growth. The model can explain why aid that increases the ability to process information generates heterogeneous effects on firms, in terms of both short-run and long-run growth. 

    Essay III analyzes the optimal aid distribution in the presence of poverty traps and funds deficiency. The aid programs include a top-down and a bottom-up policy. The former aims to lift poverty permanently by prioritizing those who are better off in terms of economic prospects; the latter is for a momentary improvement with the opposite prioritization. The trade-off between the long-run and short-run effects shapes the optimal aid distribution, where the current value of lifting poverty from productivity improvement and available funds jointly matter. I characterize the conditions when funding the top-down policy exclusively or two policies simultaneously is optimal. In the latter situation, certain aid receivers have to be left in poverty traps.

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  • 292.
    Ao, Fei
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    Optimal Aid Distribution and Poverty TrapsManuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper analyzes the optimal aid distribution in the presence of poverty traps and funds deficiency. The aid programs include a top-down and a bottom-up policy. The former aims to lift poverty permanently by prioritizing those who are better off in terms of economic prospects; the latter is for a momentary improvement with the opposite prioritization. The trade-off between the long-run and short-run effects shapes the optimal aid distribution, where the current value of lifting poverty from productivity improvement and available funds jointly matter. I characterize the conditions when funding the top-down policy exclusively or two policies simultaneously is optimal. In the latter situation, certain aid receivers have to be left in poverty traps.

  • 293.
    Ao, Fei
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    Optimal Taxation and Multiple Externalities in a Dynamic EconomyManuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper characterizes the optimal mix of linear commodity taxation and non-linear income taxation in a dynamic economy where consumption gives rise to positional and environmental externalities. Both externalities are modeled as stock-externalities by reflecting people's present and past consumption. With non-atmospheric positional externalities, the principle of targeting does not apply, which means that the policy rules for all tax instruments are adjusted in response to the positional externality. The results of the model imply simultaneous motives for corrective taxation that interacts in an important way.

  • 294.
    Ao, Fei
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    Time Capacity and Firms' Economic StagnationManuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper presents a poverty trap model at the firm level, which is driven by time capacity constraints, and involves the optimal allocation of time between a basic and a more-productive business. To operate the more-productive business requires additional time input but enhances the ability to process information in the future, which in turn, determines the firm's time capacity. As a result, a firm with a low ability may encounter challenges in expanding time capacity for further growth. We highlight the importance of passing proficiency thresholds in operating the more-productive business to achieve sustainable growth. The model can explain why aid that increases the ability to process information generates heterogeneous effects on firms, in terms of both short-run and long-run growth.

  • 295.
    Apel, M
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    Sodersten, J
    Personal taxation and investment incentives in a small open economy1999In: INTERNATIONAL TAX AND PUBLIC FINANCE, ISSN 0927-5940, Vol. 6, no 1, p. 79-88Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    A simple portfolio model is used to investigate the effects of personal taxes on real investment incentives in a small open economy with large and small firms. When shares in large firms can be traded internationally and their rate of return is exogenousl

  • 296.
    Apel, Mikael
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    Södersten, Jan
    Personal taxation and investment incentives in a small open economy1996Report (Other scientific)
  • 297.
    Areskär, Alexander
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    Yakymovych, Yaroslav
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    STÅR DEN RIKA VÄRLDEN INFÖR EN FRAMTID UTAN EKONOMISK TILLVÄXT?: En studie om hur storleken på den arbetsföra befolkningen påverkar långsiktig tillväxt i Japan och andra OECD-länder.2015Independent thesis Basic level (degree of Bachelor), 10 credits / 15 HE creditsStudent thesis
    Abstract [sv]

    Under senare tid har det börjat väckas alltmer oro kring en minskande arbetsför befolkning och en ökande andel äldre i världens industrialiserade länder. I denna uppsats undersöks därför sambandet mellan arbetsför befolkning och tillväxt i OECD-länders bruttonationalprodukt (BNP). Paneldata från 24 länder under perioden 1981-2013 används. Två aspekter är i fokus: förändringar i antalet personer i arbetsför ålder och i andelen arbetsför befolkning i totalbefolkningen. Resultaten tyder på att en minskning av andelen arbetsför befolkning med en procentenhet leder till 0,2-0,4 procentenheters lägre årlig tillväxt i BNP per capita. Vi kan däremot inte påvisa att förändringar i tillväxten i antalet personer i arbetsför ålder påverkar tillväxten per capita. För att illustrera resultatens betydelse tillämpar vi dem på fallet Japan; tillämpningsstudien pekar på att Japan, under perioden 1996-2013, förlorade 0,7 procentenheter i årlig tillväxt i BNP per capita på grund av den demografiska utvecklingen.

  • 298.
    Armelius, Hanna
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    An integrated approach to urban road pricing2005In: Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, ISSN 0022-5258, E-ISSN 1754-5951, Vol. 38, no 1, p. 75-92Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper analyses an integrated urban road pricing policy based on an automatic payment system for cars. Like Glazer and Niskanen (2000) it studies congestion tolls with heterogeneous commuters, but focuses on welfare effects and extends their model to include a choice of departure time, as well as travel mode. The author finds that tolls can be welfare improving even if the public transit mode normally used for substitution is also congested. If, for some reason, public transit charges cannot be changed, substitution towards off-peak travel can be stimulated by a combined road toll and parking duties policy made possible by modern automatic vehicle-identification technologies.

  • 299.
    Armelius, Hanna
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    Distributional consequences and political acceptance of congestion tollsArticle in journal (Refereed)
  • 300.
    Armelius, Hanna
    Uppsala University, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    Distributional Side Effects of Tax Policies: An Analysis of Tax Avoidance and Congestion Tolls2004Doctoral thesis, monograph (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    This thesis consists of three self-contained essays.

    Essay 1

    This essay examines the effects of tax avoidance on saving and income distribution. In an intertemporal model taxes can be avoided through asset trade. We find that including an avoidance response to taxation will increase all the negative distortions of increased tax progressivity. This result is in contrast to previous findings that tax avoidance can be used to escape some of the negative incentives that a highly progressive tax system leads to. Furthermore, we find that in the presence of tax avoidance measurements of income inequality will be biased downward, since avoidance is more common among the relatively rich. A simulation of a representative economy shows that standard measurements of inequality can be seriously misleading, particularly for economies with relatively high marginal tax rates.

    Essay 2

    The paper analyses an integrated urban road pricing policy based on an automatic payment system for cars. Like Glazer and Niskanen (2000) we study congestion tolls with heterogeneous commuters, but we focus on welfare effects and extend their model to include a choice of departure time, as well as travel mode. We find that tolls can be welfare improving even if the public transit mode normally used for substitution is also congested. If, for some reason, public transit charges cannot be changed, substitution towards off-peak travel can be stimulated by a combined road toll and parking duties policy made possible by modern automatic vehicle-identification technologies.

    Essay 3

    This essay focuses on the distributional impact and political acceptance of congestion tolls, which, we find, will depend on the location of a switch point income level, at which tolls become regressive. The latter, in turn, depends on the relative attractiveness of the car versus the mass transit system. We find that in a European setting, congestion tolls will most likely have a negative effect on the middle classes, while individuals at both tails of the income distribution will find themselves better off. An investment in the public transportation system will increase the number of individuals who would favor a reform involving congestion tolls on the road network. Such investments might therefore be warranted not only for environmental reasons, but also as a means of making an optimal road pricing policy politically acceptable, something which can be useful particularly in developing countries where financing traffic improvements can be difficult.

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