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  • 151.
    Rampal, Priya
    et al.
    M.S. Swaminathan Research Foundation, India.
    Bali Swain, Ranjula
    Södertörn University, School of Social Sciences, Economics. Stockholm School of Economics / Uppsala University.
    Food Security, agriculture and malnutrition in India2019In: Hunger and Malnutrition as major challenges of the 21st Century / [ed] R. Jha, Singapore: World Scientific, 2019, p. 241-265Chapter in book (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    It is widely recognized that combating malnutrition for women is central not only for their own health but also for the attainment of nutritional adequacy for future generations, including infants, children and adolescents. Attaining adequate nutrition for women is necessary throughout their life, but particularly so before, during and after pregnancy, if intergenerational nutritional adequacy is to be attained. Adequacy of nutrition also helps an individual become more productive and saves medical treatment costs that may otherwise have occurred. However, India’s less than satisfactory record of female, infant and child nutrition underscores the need to take urgent steps, particularly if the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are to be attained. With this as the background the present chapter focuses on the role of agriculture in providing adequate nutrition for women and the methods through which women in the rural sector can leverage existing institutions and programs to ameliorate nutritional inadequacy. This would require the design of informative indices of nutritional attainment and close cooperation in policy between governments, civil society organizations and international advisory groups. The chapter reviews some ways in which these can be attained.

  • 152.
    Ranganathan, S.
    et al.
    Uppsala University.
    Bali Swain, Ranjula
    Södertörn University, School of Social Sciences, Economics. Stockholm School of Economics.
    Sumpter, D. J. T.
    Uppsala University.
    The demographic transition and economic growth: Implications for development policy2015In: Palgrave Communications, E-ISSN 2055-1045, Vol. 1, article id 15033Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    An important transition in the economic history of countries occurs when they move from a regime of low prosperity, high child mortality and high fertility to a state of high prosperity, low child mortality and low fertility. Researchers have proposed various theories to explain this demographic transition and its relation to economic growth. In this article, we test the validity of some of these theories by fitting a non-linear dynamic model for the available cross-country data. Our approach fills the gap between the micro-level models that discuss causative mechanisms but do not consider if alternative models may fit the data well, and models from growth econometrics that show the impact of different factors on economic growth but do not include non-linearities and complex interactions. In our model, mortality and fertility decline and economic growth are endogenized by considering a simultaneous system of equations in the change variables. The model shows that the transition is best described in terms of a development cycle involving child mortality, fertility and GDP per capita. Fertility rate decreases when child mortality is low, and is weakly dependent on GDP. As fertility rates fall, GDP increases, and as GDP increases, child mortality falls. We further test the hypothesis that female education drives down fertility rates rather than child mortality, but find only weak evidence for it. The Bayesian methodology we use ensures robust models and we identify non-linear interactions between indicators to capture real-world non-linearities. Hence, our models can be used in policymaking to predict short-term evolutions in the indicator variables. We also discuss how our approach can be used to evaluate policy initiatives such as the Millennium Development Goals or the Sustainable Development Goals and set more accurate, country-specific development targets. 

  • 153.
    Ranganathan, Shyam
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Mathematics and Computer Science, Department of Mathematics.
    Bali Swain, Ranjula
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    Analysing Mechanisms for Meeting Global Emissions Target - A Dynamical Systems Approach2014Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Global emissions beyond 44 gigatonnes of carbondioxide equivalent (GtCO2e) in 2020 can potentially lead the world to an irreversible climate change. Employing a novel dynamical system modeling approach, we predict that in a business-asusual scenario, it will reach 61 GtCO2e by 2020. Testing estimated parameters, we nd that limiting the burden of emission reduction to the top 25 global emitters, does not increase their encumbrance. In absence of emission cuts, technology and preferences for environmental quality have to improve by at least 2.6 percent and 3.5 percent if the emission target has to be met by 2020.

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  • 154. Ranganathan, Shyam
    et al.
    Bali Swain, Ranjula
    Uppsala University.
    Analysing Mechanisms for Meeting Global Emissions Target: A Dynamical Systems Approach2014Report (Other academic)
  • 155.
    Ranganathan, Shyam
    et al.
    Uppsala University.
    Bali Swain, Ranjula
    Uppsala University.
    Setting Sustainable Development Goals: A Dynamical Systems approach2014Report (Other academic)
  • 156.
    Ranganathan, Shyam
    et al.
    Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Virginia, USA.
    Bali Swain, Ranjula
    Södertörn University, School of Social Sciences, Economics. Stockholm School of Economics.
    Sustainable Development and global emission targets: A dynamical systems approach to aid evidence-based policy making2018In: Sustainable Development, ISSN 0968-0802, E-ISSN 1099-1719, Vol. 26, no 6, p. 812-821Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    There is broad scientific consensus that increasing global emissions at current rates will result irreversible climate change. The global commitment to the Sustainable Development Goals and the Paris agreement tries to address this concern with policy changes. But top-down approaches including voluntary emission cuts do not seem politically feasible in all countries. In this paper, we show that moderate voluntary emission cuts (policy) supplemented by technological developments and changes in consumption tastes and preferences induced by educating individuals (stakeholder engagement) could help achieve emission targets. We use a novel dynamical systems modeling approach based on economic theory to show the quantitative tradeoffs between these different approaches. Using this model, we also show how economic development may be balanced by global emissions reductions so that, initially, developing economies can continue along their current growth trajectories and eliminate poverty, and eventually bear more of the emissions reduction burden.

  • 157.
    Ranganathan, Shyam
    et al.
    Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Department of Statistics, Blacksburg, Virginia, USA.
    Bali Swain, Ranjula
    Mistra Center for Sustainable Markets (Misum), Stockholm School of Economics, Stockholm, Sweden; Department of Economics, Södertörn University, Huddinge, Sweden.
    Sustainable development and global emission targets: A dynamical systems approach to aid evidence-based policy making2018In: Sustainable Development, ISSN 2160-7540, E-ISSN 2160-7559, Vol. 26, no 6, p. 812-821Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    There is broad scientific consensus that increasing global emissions at current rates will result in irreversible climate change. The global commitment to the Sustainable Development Goals and the Paris agreement tries to address this concern with policy changes. But top-down approaches including voluntary emission cuts do not seem politically feasible in all countries. In this paper, we show that moderate voluntary emission cuts (policy) supplemented by technological developments and changes in consumption tastes and preferences induced by educating individuals (stakeholder engagement) could help achieve emission targets. We use a novel dynamical systems modeling approach based on economic theory to show the quantitative tradeoffs between these different approaches. Using this model, we also show how economic development may be balanced by global emissions reductions so that, initially, developing economies can continue along their current growth trajectories and eliminate poverty, and eventually bear more of the emissions reduction burden.

  • 158. Ranganathan, Shyam
    et al.
    Bali Swain, Ranjula
    Uppsala University.
    Sumpter, David J.T
    A Dynamical Systems Approach to Modeling Human Development2014Report (Other academic)
  • 159.
    Ranganathan, Shyam
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Mathematics and Computer Science, Department of Mathematics.
    Bali Swain, Ranjula
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    Sumpter, David J.T
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Mathematics and Computer Science, Department of Mathematics.
    A Dynamical Systems Approach to Modeling Human Development2014Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    A key aim of economics is to set goals and investigate the relationship between various socio-economic indicators. By tting time series data using a Bayesian dynamical systems approach we identify non-linear interactions between GDP, child mortality, fertility rate and female education. We show that reduction in child mortality is best predicted by the level of GDP in a country over the preceding 5 years. Fertility rate decreases when current or predicted child mortality is low, and is weakly dependent on female education and economic growth. As fertility drops, GDP increases producing a cycle that drives the demographic transition.

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  • 160.
    Ranganathan, Shyam
    et al.
    Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg, USA .
    Nicolis, Stamatios C
    Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium.
    Bali Swain, Ranjula
    Södertörn University, School of Social Sciences, Economics. Stockholm School of Economics.
    Sumpter, David J T
    Uppsala University.
    Setting development goals using stochastic dynamical system models2017In: PLOS ONE, E-ISSN 1932-6203, Vol. 12, no 2, article id e0171560Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The Millennium Development Goals (MDG) programme was an ambitious attempt to encourage a globalised solution to important but often-overlooked development problems. The programme led to wide-ranging development but it has also been criticised for unrealistic and arbitrary targets. In this paper, we show how country-specific development targets can be set using stochastic, dynamical system models built from historical data. In particular, we show that the MDG target of two-thirds reduction of child mortality from 1990 levels was infeasible for most countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. At the same time, the MDG targets were not ambitious enough for fast-developing countries such as Brazil and China. We suggest that model-based setting of country-specific targets is essential for the success of global development programmes such as the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG). This approach should provide clear, quantifiable targets for policymakers.

  • 161.
    Sepahvand, Mohammad H.
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    Shahbazian, Roujman
    Swedish Institute for Social Research (SOFI), Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden.
    Bali Swain, Ranjula
    Misum, Stockholm School of Economics, Stockholm, Sweden; Department of Economics, Södertörn University, Huddinge, Sweden.
    Does revolution change risk attitudes?: Evidence from Burkina Faso2019Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    A popular uprising in 2014, led to a revolution overthrowing the sitting president of Burkina Faso. We investigate if individuals’ risk attitudes changed due to this revolution. Specifically, we investigate the impact of the revolution on risk attitudes, by gender, age and level of education. The analysis is based on a unique nationally representative panel Household Budget Survey, which allows us to track the changes in the risk attitudes of the same individuals before, during and after the revolution. Our results suggest that the impact of the revolution is short-term. Individuals become risk averse during the revolution but converge back to the pre-revolution risk attitudes, slightly increasing their risk taking, after the revolution is over. Women are more risk taking than the men after the revolution but are more risk averse during the revolution. In general, older individuals tend to have higher risk aversion than the younger individuals.  During the revolution, however, the individuals with higher level of education are less willing to take risk.

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  • 162. Sepahvand, Mohammad
    et al.
    Shahbazian, Roujman
    Bali Swain, Ranjula
    Uppsala University.
    Time Investment by Parents in Cognitive and Non-cognitive Childcare Activities2013Report (Other academic)
  • 163.
    Sepahvand, Mohammad
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    Shahbazian, Roujman
    Swedish Institute for Social Research (SOFI).
    Bali Swain, Ranjula
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    Time Investment by Parents in Cognitive and Non-cognitive Childcare Activities2013Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    We investigate the time investment in cognitive and non-cognitive childcare activities by parents with different educational attainment. In a second step we also investigate this effect for three different child age cohorts. Past research shows that the degree of success in the labour market is highly connected to the individual’s cognitive and non-cognitive skills. We compare evidence based on Multinational Time Use Study (MTUS) for five countries: France, Netherlands, Spain, United Kingdom and United States of America in order to identify any systematic pattern. The results indicate that the educational gradients for cognitive and non-cognitive childcare activities are overall positive with respect to the level of education. Furthermore, the results seem to be consistent with the technology of skill formation. They indicate a concave function between time investment and the age of the child for cognitive childcare activities and a decreasing function for non-cognitive childcare activities.

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  • 164.
    Spaiser, V.
    et al.
    University of Leeds, Leeds, UK.
    Ranganathan, S.
    Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA, USA.
    Bali Swain, Ranjula
    Södertörn University, School of Social Sciences, Economics. Stockholm School of Economics.
    Sumpter, D. J. T.
    Uppsala University.
    The sustainable development oxymoron: quantifying and modelling the incompatibility of sustainable development goals2017In: International Journal of Sustainable Development and World Ecology, ISSN 1350-4509, E-ISSN 1745-2627, Vol. 24, no 6, p. 457-470Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In 2015, the UN adopted a new set of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) to eradicate poverty, establish socioeconomic inclusion and protect the environment. Critical voices such as the International Council for Science (ICSU), however, have expressed concerns about the potential incompatibility of the SDGs, specifically the incompatibility of socio-economic development and environmental sustainability. In this paper, we test, quantify and model the alleged inconsistency of SDGs. Our analyses show which SDGs are consistent and which are conflicting. We measure the extent of inconsistency and conclude that the SDG agenda will fail as a whole if we continue with business as usual. We further explore the nature of the inconsistencies using dynamical systems models, which reveal that the focus on economic growth and consumption as a means for development underlies the inconsistency. Our models also show that there are factors which can contribute to development (health programmes, government investment) on the one hand and ecological sustainability (renewable energy) on the other, without triggering the conflict between incompatible SDGs. © 2016 The Author(s).

  • 165.
    Spaiser, Viktoria
    et al.
    University of Leeds.
    Ranganathan, Shyam
    Department of Statistics, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, USA.
    Bali Swain, Ranjula
    School of Social Sciences, Södertörn University; Mistra Center for Sustainable Markets (MISUM), Stockholm School of Economics.
    Sumpter, David J. T.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Mathematics and Computer Science, Department of Mathematics, Applied Mathematics and Statistics.
    The Sustainable Development Oxymoron: Quantifying and Modelling the Incompatibility of Sustainable Development Goals2017In: International Journal of Sustainable Development and World Ecology, ISSN 1350-4509, E-ISSN 1745-2627, Vol. 24, no 6, p. 457-470Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In 2015, the UN adopted a new set of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) to eradicate poverty, establish socioeconomic inclusion and protect the environment. Critical voices such as the International Council for Science (ICSU), however, have expressed concerns about the potential incompatibility of the SDGs, specifically the incompatibility of socio-economic development and environmental sustainability. In this paper, we test, quantify and model the alleged inconsistency of SDGs. Our analyses show which SDGs are consistent and which are conflicting. We measure the extent of inconsistency and conclude that the SDG agenda will fail as a whole if we continue with business as usual. We further explore the nature of the inconsistencies using dynamical systems models, which reveal that the focus on economic growth and consumption as a means for development underlies the inconsistency. Our models also show that there are factors which can contribute to development (health programmes, government investment) on the one hand and ecological sustainability (renewable energy) on the other, without triggering the conflict between incompatible SDGs.

  • 166.
    Strömberg, Per M.
    et al.
    Södertörn University, School of Social Sciences, Economics. IVL, Swedish Environmental Research Institute, Sweden.
    Bali Swain, Ranjula
    Södertörn University, School of Social Sciences, Economics. Stockholm School of Economics, Sweden.
    Citizen monitoring in environmental disclosure: An economics perspective2024In: Journal of Environmental Management, ISSN 0301-4797, E-ISSN 1095-8630, Vol. 356, article id 120567Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Criticism is mounting that market-led and state-led initiatives for environmental impact disclosure are too limited in scope and that they rest on too strong assumptions about the quality and impartiality of monitoring and enforcement, with resulting insufficient effect on environmental sustainability. It has been proposed that citizen monitoring may contribute to counteract this void. However, to our knowledge, policy analysis in general and economics in particular has not paid much attention to this role of citizen monitoring. This paper aims to bridge that gap from an economics lens, by exploring the dynamics of disclosing local environmental impact and the potential role of citizen monitoring in environmental policy. To this end, the paper addresses monopolistic versus pluralistic environmental disclosure, letting citizen monitoring represent the latter. The study uses the mining industry as an illustrative case, because of that sector's particular transparency challenges in international value chains, typically with strong negative local environmental impact. It is shown how pluralistic information provision such as citizen monitoring can contribute to incentivizing more reliable information provision, especially in countries with weak state institutions, which is particularly important in the case of high-risk environmental impact. The findings should be of use for shaping environmental policy, providing valuable insights for both policymakers and scholars.

  • 167. Swain, Ashok
    et al.
    Bali Swain, Ranjula
    Uppsala University.
    Themner, Anders
    Krampe, Florian
    Zambezi River Basin: A Risk Zone of Climate Change and Vulnerability2012In: New Routes, ISSN 1403-3755, E-ISSN 2000-8082, Vol. 17, no 3, p. 17-20Article in journal (Other academic)
  • 168.
    Swain, Ashok
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Bali Swain, Ranjula
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    Themner, Anders
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Krampe, Florian
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Zambezi River Basin: A Risk Zone of Climate Change and Vulnerability2012In: New Routes, ISSN 1403-3755, E-ISSN 2000-8082, Vol. 17, no 3, p. 17-20Article in journal (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
  • 169.
    Swain, Ashok
    et al.
    Uppsala University.
    Bali Swain, Ranjula
    Uppsala University.
    Themnér, Anders
    Uppsala University.
    Krampe, Florian
    Uppsala University.
    Climate Change and the Risk of Violent Conflicts in Southern Africa2011Book (Other academic)
  • 170.
    Swain, Ashok
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, För teknisk-naturvetenskapliga fakulteten gemensamma enheter, Uppsala Centre for Sustainable Development. Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Bali Swain, Ranjula
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    Themnér, Anders
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Krampe, Florian
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, För teknisk-naturvetenskapliga fakulteten gemensamma enheter, Uppsala Centre for Sustainable Development. Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.
    Climate Change and the Risk of Violent Conflicts in Southern Africa2011Book (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    This study aims to identify regions in the Zambezi River Basin in Southern Africa that are prone to risk of violent conflicts (collective violence, popular unrest) induced by climatic changes/variability. The Zambezi River is 575 kilometres long and the basin covers eight coun- tries: Zambia, Angola, Zimbabwe, Malawi, Tanzania, Botswana, Mo- zambique and Namibia.Besides the ecological impact, the study argues that socio-econom- ic and political problems are disproportionately multiplied by climate change/variability. Climate change/variability amplifies stresses on the socio-political fabric because it affects the governance of resources, and hence, is linked to the weakened mitigation and adaptation capac- ity of societies, that are already facing economic challenges (rising food prices, etc.). Society becomes highly vulnerable to climate induced con- flicts when it suffers from poor central leadership, weak institutions and polarized social identities. Taking all these factors into consideration, this study identifies Bulawayo/Matableleland-North in Zimbabwe and the Zambezia Province in Mozambique as the most likely regions to experience climate induced conflicts in the near future. The reasons for arriving at this conclusion are: a) Climatechange/variabilitywillhaveasignificantimpactonthesetwo regions; due to increasing water scarcity in Bulawayo/Matabeleland- North; and intensified flooding, sea-level rise, and costal erosion in the Zambezia Province. b) Due to climate change/variability, agricultural production in these two regions will become highly volatile, leading to severe food insecurity. c) Both regions are suffering from low quality political governance, having unscrupulous elites, weak institutions, and polarized social identities.

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  • 171.
    Westling, N.
    et al.
    Stockholm School of Economics / KTH.
    Stromberg, P. M.
    Swedish Environmental Protection Agency.
    Bali Swain, Ranjula
    Södertörn University, School of Social Sciences, Economics.
    Can upstream ecosystems ensure safe drinking water – Insights from Sweden2020In: Ecological Economics, ISSN 0921-8009, E-ISSN 1873-6106, Vol. 169, article id 106552Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Clean water is not only the product of expensive treatment technology, but also of upstream ecosystems. Yet, the effect of land use on downstream water quality is poorly understood. We investigate the value of ecosystem water purification as an input to the production of drinking water in Sweden. We employ a recently modified empirical approach, complementing ex-ante modelling. We capture plant operator behaviour, rather than assuming rational individuals that value ecosystem services as a factor in the drinking water production function. The GMM technique is applied to estimate the marginal contributions of different land uses to water quality and chemical costs of treatment plants. The analysis is based on upstream land-use data, raw water quality, and chemical costs for a large share of Sweden’s municipal surface water treatment plants, for the period 2000 to 2012. Our results show that upstream forests lead to lower levels of E. coli (a pathogen associated with disease outbreaks) in downstream water and indicate the same effect on turbidity (not significant). We also find that turbidity increases treatment costs, but the effect of E. coli remains unclear. Consequently, in addition to water treatment equipment, decision-makers should consider investment in upstream ecosystems. 

  • 172. Westling, Nils
    et al.
    Strömberg, Per M.
    Bali Swain, Ranjula
    Stockholm School of Economics; Södertörn University.
    Can upstream ecosystems ensure safe drinking water: Insights from Sweden2020In: Ecological Economics, ISSN 0921-8009, E-ISSN 1873-6106, Vol. 169, article id 106552Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Clean water is not only the product of expensive treatment technology, but also of upstream ecosystems. Yet, the effect of land use on downstream water quality is poorly understood. We investigate the value of ecosystem water purification as an input to the production of drinking water in Sweden. We employ a recently modified empirical approach, complementing ex-ante modelling. We capture plant operator behaviour, rather than assuming rational individuals that value ecosystem services as a factor in the drinking water production function. The GMM technique is applied to estimate the marginal contributions of different land uses to water quality and chemical costs of treatment plants. The analysis is based on upstream land-use data, raw water quality, and chemical costs for a large share of Sweden’s municipal surface water treatment plants, for the period 2000 to 2012. Our results show that upstream forests lead to lower levels of E. coli (a pathogen associated with disease outbreaks) in downstream water and indicate the same effect on turbidity (not significant). We also find that turbidity increases treatment costs, but the effect of E. coli remains unclear. Consequently, in addition to water treatment equipment, decision-makers should consider investment in upstream ecosystems. 

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