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  • 1. Bloomfield, K.
    et al.
    Rossow, I.
    Norström, Thor
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutet för social forskning (SOFI).
    Changes in Alcohol-Related Harm after Alcohol Policy Changes in Denmark2009Ingår i: European Addiction Research, ISSN 1022-6877, E-ISSN 1421-9891, Vol. 15, nr 4, s. 224-231Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Objectives: This paper examines changes in alcohol-related harm in Denmark between 2003 and 2005 after changes in alcohol policies were introduced between 2003 and 2005. Methods: Interrupted time series analysis was performed with data on violent assaults and hospitalisations for acute alcohol intoxication from 2003 through 2005. Results: A 26% increase in the number of acute alcohol intoxication hospitalisations among people aged 15 years and younger was detected after the tax reduction on spirits. No significant increase in violent assaults and acute intoxication among adults was found. Conclusions: Even modest alcohol price policies can affect more vulnerable population sub-groups such as under-age youth. Policy makers should consider such consequences when forming economic policies that also have public health implications.

  • 2. Brunborg, Geir Scott
    et al.
    Norström, Thor
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutet för social forskning (SOFI). Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Norway.
    Storvoll, Elisabet E.
    Latent developmental trajectories of episodic heavy drinking from adolescence to early adulthood: Predictors of trajectory groups and alcohol problems in early adulthood as outcome2018Ingår i: Drug and Alcohol Review, ISSN 0959-5236, E-ISSN 1465-3362, Vol. 37, nr 3, s. 389-395Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Introduction and Aims. To identify latent developmental episodic heavy drinking (EHD) trajectory groups for Norwegian adolescents, investigate risk factors associated with group membership and to assess differences in alcohol problems between different groups in early adulthood. Design and Methods. Data were from 1266 individuals measured at four time points from age 13/14years to age 26/27years. Latent class growth analysis was used to identify groups with different EHD development. Multinomial logistic regression was used to investigated if gender, impulsivity, school commitment, parents' socio-economic status, frequency of seeing parents drunk and parental knowledge could predict group membership. Differences in alcohol problem scores at age 26/27 were also assessed. Results. Four trajectory groups were identified: stable high', early increasers', late increasers' and stable low'. Membership of the high-risk trajectory groups stable high' and early increasers' was predicted by high impulsivity, low school commitment, high frequency of seeing parents drunk and low parental knowledge. The risk of alcohol problems at age 26/27 was greater for the stable high' group, the early increasers' and the late increasers' compared with the stable low' group. The stable high' and early increasers' had similar risk of alcohol problems. Discussion and Conclusions. Stable high and early increasing EHD in adolescence was associated with more alcohol problems in early adulthood. Such trajectories were predicted by high impulsivity, low school commitment, high frequency of seeing parents drunk and low parental knowledge. [Brunborg GS, Norstrom T, Storvoll EE. Latent developmental trajectories of episodic heavy drinking from adolescence to early adulthood: Predictors of trajectory groups and alcohol problems in early adulthood as outcome.

  • 3.
    Dadgar, Iman
    et al.
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutet för social forskning (SOFI).
    Norström, Thor
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutet för social forskning (SOFI).
    Is there a link between cardiovascular mortality and economic fluctuations?2020Ingår i: Scandinavian Journal of Public Health, ISSN 1403-4948, E-ISSN 1651-1905Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Background: Unemployment might affect several risk factors of cardiovascular disease (CVD), which is the leading cause of death globally. The characterisation of the relation between these two phenomena is thus of great significance from a public-health perspective. The main aim of this study was to estimate the association between the unemployment rate and mortality from CVD and from coronary heart disease (CHD). Additional aims were (a) to assess whether the associations are modified by the degree of unemployment protection; (b) to determine the impact of GDP on heart-disease mortality; and (c) to assess the impact of the Great Recession in this context. Methods: We used time-series data for 32 countries spanning the period 1960–2015. We applied two alternative modelling strategies: (a) error correction modelling, provided that the data were co-integrated; and (b) first-difference modelling in the absence of co-integration. Separate models were estimated for each of five welfare state regimes with different levels of unemployment protection. We also performed country-specific ARIMA-analyses. Results: Because the data did not prove to be co-integrated, we applied first-difference modelling. The estimated effect of unemployment and GDP on CVD as well as CHD was statistically insignificant across age and sex groups and across the various welfare state regimes. An interaction term capturing the possible excess effect of unemployment during the Great Recession was also statistically insignificant. Conclusions: Our findings, based on data from predominantly affluent countries, suggest that heart-disease mortality does not respond to economic fluctuations.

  • 4.
    Dadgar, Iman
    et al.
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutet för social forskning (SOFI).
    Norström, Thor
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutet för social forskning (SOFI).
    Short-term and long-term effects of GDP on traffic deaths in 18 OECD countries, 1960-20112017Ingår i: Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health, ISSN 0143-005X, E-ISSN 1470-2738, Vol. 71, nr 2, s. 146-153Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Background Research suggests that increases in gross domestic product (GDP) lead to increases in traffic deaths plausibly due to the increased road traffic induced by an expanding economy. However, there also seems to exist a long-term effect of economic growth that is manifested in improved traffic safety and reduced rates of traffic deaths. Previous studies focus on either the short-term, procyclical effect, or the long-term, protective effect. The aim of the present study is to estimate the short-term and long-term effects jointly in order to assess the net impact of GDP on traffic mortality. Methods We extracted traffic death rates for the period 1960-2011 from the WHO Mortality Database for 18 OECD countries. Data on GDP/capita were obtained from the Maddison Project. We performed error correction modelling to estimate the short-term and long-term effects of GDP on the traffic death rates. Results The estimates from the error correction modelling for the entire study period suggested that a one-unit increase (US$1000) in GDP/capita yields an instantaneous short-term increase in the traffic death rate by 0.58 (p<0.001), and a long-term decrease equal to -1.59 (p<0.001). However, period-specific analyses revealed a structural break implying that the procyclical effect outweighs the protective effect in the period prior to 1976, whereas the reverse is true for the period 1976-2011. Conclusions An increase in GDP leads to an immediate increase in traffic deaths. However, after the mid-1970s this short-term effect is more than outweighed by a markedly stronger protective long-term effect, whereas the reverse is true for the period before the mid-1970s.

  • 5.
    Ferrarini, Tommy
    et al.
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutet för social forskning (SOFI).
    Norström, Thor
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutet för social forskning (SOFI).
    Family policy, economic development and infant mortality: a longitudinal comparative analysis2010Ingår i: International Journal of Social Welfare, ISSN 1369-6866, E-ISSN 1468-2397, Vol. 19, nr Supplement s1, s. s89-s102Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    In the present study, the impact of family policy legislation and economic development on infant mortality was estimated. Time series analyses indicate that economic growth decreased infant mortality in the earlier part of the 20th century, while the postwar period showed a zero or even a reversed correlation between economic development and child health. The results from fixed effects modelling of data for 18 welfare democracies for the period 1970–2000 are in line with the hypothesis that the more generous the earnings-related parental leave benefits, the lower the infant mortality.

  • 6. Jiang, Heng
    et al.
    Livingstone, Michael
    Room, Robin
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Centrum för socialvetenskaplig alkohol- och drogforskning (SoRAD). Turning Point Alcohol & Drug Centre, Australia; University of Melbourne, Australia .
    Dietze, Paul
    Norström, Thor
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutet för social forskning (SOFI).
    Kerr, William C.
    Alcohol Consumption and Liver Disease in Australia: A Time Series Analysis of the Period 1935–20062014Ingår i: Alcohol and Alcoholism, ISSN 0735-0414, E-ISSN 1464-3502, Vol. 49, nr 3, s. 363-368Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Aims: The aim of the study was to examine for Australia whether the link between population alcohol consumption and liver disease mortality varies over time, using 71 years of data. Methods: Overall and gender-specific rates of liver disease mortality were analysed in relation to total alcohol consumption as well as for different beverage types by using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) time series methods. Separate models were developed for the entire time period and for two sub-periods (1935–1975, 1976–2006). Results: A 1-l increase in adult per capita consumption of pure alcohol led to a rise of ∼10% in overall liver disease mortality rates and a 11 and 9% increase in female and male liver disease mortality, respectively. The strength of the relationship between per capita consumption and liver disease mortality diminished over time. Spirits consumption was found to be the main driving factor in liver mortality rates between 1935 and 1975, while beer consumption was found to be the most significant predictor in liver diseases in the last three decades. In a comparative perspective, the effect of per capita alcohol consumption on liver disease in Australia is similar to the USA, Southern and Eastern Europe countries, but weaker than in Canada and western European countries. Conclusion: An increase in per capita alcohol consumption in Australia is likely to lead to an increase in liver disease. Changes in the most important beverage over the study period suggest substantial shifts in drinking patterns and preferences among the heaviest Australian drinkers.

  • 7.
    Landberg, Jonas
    et al.
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Centrum för socialvetenskaplig alkohol- och drogforskning (SoRAD).
    Norström, Thor
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Centrum för socialvetenskaplig alkohol- och drogforskning (SoRAD).
    Alcohol and homicide in Russia and the United States – a comparative analysis2011Ingår i: Journal of Studies on Alcohol and Drugs, ISSN 1937-1888, E-ISSN 1938-4114, Vol. 72, nr 5, s. 723-730Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Objective: The object of this study was to perform a comparative analysis of the aggregate relationship between alcohol and homicide in Russia and in the United States. The comparison was based on the magnitude of the alcohol effect, the alcohol attributable fraction (AAF), and the degree to which total consumption could account for trends in homicide. Method: We analyzed total and sex-specific homicide rates for the age groups 15-64 years, 15-34 years, and 35-64 years. The study period was 1959-1998 for Russia and 1950-2002 for the United States. For the United States, alcohol consumption was gauged by sales of alcohol; for Russia, estimated unrecorded consumption was included as well. The data were analyzed through autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) modeling. Results: The results show that, for Russia as well as for the United States, a 1-L increase in consumption was associated with an increase in homicides of about 10%, although the absolute effect was markedly larger in Russia because of differences in homicide rates. The AAF estimates suggested that 73% and 57% of the homicides would be attributable to alcohol in Russia and in the United States, respectively. Most of the temporal variation in the Russian homicide rate could be accounted for by the trend in drinking, whereas the U.S. trend in total alcohol consumption had a more limited ability to predict the trend in homicides. Conclusions: We conclude that the role of alcohol in homicide seems to be larger in Russia than in the United States.

  • 8.
    Lundberg, Olle
    et al.
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Centrum för forskning om ojämlikhet i hälsa (CHESS).
    Åberg Yngwe, Monica
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Centrum för forskning om ojämlikhet i hälsa (CHESS).
    Kölegård Stjärne, Maria
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Centrum för forskning om ojämlikhet i hälsa (CHESS).
    Elstad, Jon Ivar
    Ferrarini, Tommy
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutet för social forskning (SOFI).
    Kangas, Olli
    Norström, Thor
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutet för social forskning (SOFI).
    Palme, Joakim
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutet för social forskning (SOFI).
    Fritzell, Johan
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Centrum för forskning om ojämlikhet i hälsa (CHESS).
    The role of welfare state principles and generosity in social policy programmes for public health: an international comparative study2008Ingår i: The Lancet, ISSN 0140-6736, E-ISSN 1474-547X, Vol. 372, nr 9650, s. 1633-1640Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

     Background Many important social determinants of health are also the focus for social policies. Welfare states contribute to the resources available for their citizens through cash transfer programmes and subsidised services. Although all rich nations have welfare programmes, there are clear cross-national differences with respect to their design and generosity These differences are evident in national variations in poverty rates, especially among children and elderly people. We investigated to what extent variations in family and pension policies are linked to infant mortality and old-age excess mortality. Methods Infant mortality rates and old-age excess mortality rates were analysed in relation to social policy characteristics and generosity. We did pooled cross-sectional time-series analyses of 18 OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) countries during the period 1970-2000 for family policies and 1950-2000 for pension policies. Findings Increased generosity in family policies that support dual-earner families is linked with lower infant mortality rates, whereas the generosity in family policies that support more traditional families with gainfully employed men and homemaking women is not. An increase by one percentage point in dual-earner support lowers infant mortality by 0.04 deaths per 1000 births. Generosity in basic security type of pensions is linked to lower old-age excess mortality, whereas the generosity of earnings-related income security pensions is not. An increase by one percentage point in basic security pensions is associated with a decrease in the old age excess mortality by 0.02 for men as well as for women. Interpretation The ways in which social policies are designed, as well as their generosity, are important for health because of the increase in resources that social policies entail. Hence, social policies are of major importance for how we can tackle the social determinants of health.

  • 9. Moan, Inger Synnøve
    et al.
    Norström, Thor
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutet för social forskning (SOFI). Norwegian Institute for Alcohol and Drug Research (SIRUS), Norway.
    Storvoll, Elisabet E.
    Alcohol Use and Drunk Driving: The Modifying Effect of Impulsivity2013Ingår i: Journal of Studies on Alcohol and Drugs, ISSN 1937-1888, E-ISSN 1938-4114, Vol. 74, nr 1, s. 114-119Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Objective: The aim of this study was twofold: (a) to examine how an increase in the frequency of heavy drinking episodes affects the incidence of drunk driving and (b) to examine whether the effect of alcohol use on drunk driving is contingent on impulsivity. Method: Two waves of the Young in Norway Longitudinal Study were applied (N = 2,603; response rate: 67%), when the respondents were on average 17 (1994) and 28 (2005) years of age. Measurements consisted of self-reported heavy episodic drinking, drunk driving, and impulsivity. Results: The first difference method was applied to estimate the association between heavy episodic drinking and drunk driving. This means that changes in the frequency of drunk driving were regressed on changes in the frequency of drinking. In this way, the effects of time-invariant confounders were eliminated. The results showed that every additional episode of heavy drinking was associated with a 2.6% increase in the frequency of drunk driving. The increase for males was significantly higher than among females. The analyses supported the hypothesis that impulsivity modifies the association between alcohol use and drunk driving. Conclusions: The association between drinking and drunk driving is significantly stronger among those with a high score on impulsivity compared with those who have a low score.

  • 10. Nilsson, Tony
    et al.
    Allebeck, Peter
    Leifman, Håkan
    Andréasson, Sven
    Norström, Thor
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutet för social forskning (SOFI). Karolinska Institutet, Sweden.
    Guldbrandsson, Karin
    Effects on Alcohol Consumption and Alcohol Related Harm of a Community-Based Prevention Intervention With National Support in Sweden2018Ingår i: Substance Use & Misuse, ISSN 1082-6084, E-ISSN 1532-2491, Vol. 53, nr 3, s. 412-419Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Background: In order to strengthen local alcohol prevention work in Sweden the Swedish government has for the past almost 15years commissioned the Public Health Agency of Sweden to initiate a series of community-based alcohol prevention projects. The latest of these, labeled local development with ambitions (LUMA), included 25 municipalities in Sweden. Objectives: Aim of this study is to examine if LUMA municipalities that received financial support, with requirements, increased local alcohol prevention and if alcohol consumption and harm declined. Methods: Twenty-five Swedish municipalities that received financial support aiming to strengthen local alcohol preventing activities (intervention group) were compared to municipalities that did not receive such support (control group, N = 224), before, during, and after the intervention period. Two composite measures of policy and activity were created and used. The composite activity measure includes seven activity indicators and the composite policy measure includes six policy indicators. Harm measures have been selected based on several recommended indicators for monitoring alcohol, tobacco, and other drugs in Sweden. A fixed effects model was used to analyze data. Results: The results reveal that prevention activities increased and several alcohol-related harm indicators were reduced in intervention municipalities (LUMA) compared with in control municipalities. Conclusions: It seems as if financial support, combined with specific requirements and support from the regional and national level, can stimulate local alcohol prevention activities and have a significant effect on alcohol consumption and alcohol-related harm. Similar evaluations in other countries would be of great value for assessing the generalizability of findings.

  • 11.
    Norström, Thor
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutet för social forskning (SOFI).
    Alcohol and homocide in the United States - is the link dependent on wetness?2011Ingår i: Drug and Alcohol Review, ISSN 0959-5236, E-ISSN 1465-3362, Vol. 30, nr 5, s. 458-465Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Introduction and Aims. Several aggregate-level studies have suggested that the relationship between alcohol and homicide is stronger in countries with an intoxication-oriented drinking pattern than in countries where drinking is more tempered. The present paper extends this research tradition by analysing the alcohol–homicide link in various regions in the USA.

    Design and Methods. I used annual time-series data for the US states covering the period 1950–2002. Alcohol sales figures were used as proxy for alcohol consumption. Mortality data were used as indicators of homicide. The states were sorted into three groups labelled Dry, Moderate and Wet, where the last group has the highest prevalence of hazardous drinking according to survey data. Group-specific data were analysed using (i) autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) modelling and (ii) fixed effects modelling. All modelling was based on differenced data, thus eliminating time trends and interstate correlations, both of which may bias estimates.

    Results. The ARIMA estimates displayed a statistically significant gradient in alcohol effects; the effect was strongest in Wet, and weakest and insignificant in Dry states. The fixed-effects estimates showed a corresponding pattern, although the gradient was less steep and insignificant. The gradient was also weakened if the effects were expressed in absolute rather than relative terms. The spatial pattern revealed no ecological correlation between alcohol and homicide.

    Discussion and Conclusions. Results provided mixed support for the hypothesis that the relationship between alcohol and homicide is stronger in wet than in dry states in the USA. Future research should probe more specific indicators of homicide as well as alcohol consumption.

  • 12.
    Norström, Thor
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutet för social forskning (SOFI).
    Alcohol consumption and all-cause mortality in the United States, 1950-20022007Ingår i: Contempory Drug Problems, Vol. 34, s. 513-525Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
  • 13.
    Norström, Thor
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutet för social forskning (SOFI).
    Commentary on Pridemore (2014): Drinking and suicide in Russia — strong evidence of a strong link2014Ingår i: Addiction, ISSN 0965-2140, E-ISSN 1360-0443, Vol. 109, nr 2, s. 189-190Artikel i tidskrift (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
  • 14.
    Norström, Thor
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutet för social forskning (SOFI).
    "Forskningsanslag beviljades oftare för män än för kvinnor"2007Ingår i: Läkartidningen, Vol. 104, s. 3273-3275Artikel i tidskrift (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
  • 15.
    Norström, Thor
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutet för social forskning (SOFI).
    How to model two-wave panel data?2008Ingår i: Addiction, Vol. 103, s. 938-939Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
  • 16.
    Norström, Thor
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutet för social forskning (SOFI).
    Leder arbetslöshet till fler självmord?2009Ingår i: Framtider, nr 3, s. 18-20Artikel i tidskrift (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
  • 17.
    Norström, Thor
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutet för social forskning (SOFI).
    Män har större chans än kvinnor att få forskningsanslag från FAS2012Ingår i: Läkartidningen, ISSN 0023-7205, E-ISSN 1652-7518, nr 43, s. 1962-1963Artikel i tidskrift (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
  • 18.
    Norström, Thor
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutet för social forskning (SOFI).
    Samband mellan alkohol och självmord på befolkningsnivå: en översikt2013Ingår i: Suicidologi, ISSN 1501-6994, E-ISSN 1892-9842, Vol. 18, nr 3, s. 10-15Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [sv]

    I sitt inflytelserika arbete avfärdade Durkheim kategoriskt alkoholkonsumtion eller alkoholmissbruk som en plausibel orsaksfaktor bakom självmord. Detta kan vara ett skäl till att alkoholfaktorn länge var negligerad inom den samhällsvetenskapliga självmordsforskningen. Under de senaste decennierna har dock det publicerats ett växande antal studier på befolkningsnivå där frågeställningen gäller hur förändringar i totalkonsumtionen av alkohol påverkar självmordsfrekvensen i samhället. Föreliggande artikel ger en översikt över den forskning som publicerats på detta område efter 1989. Genom sökningar i MedLine och Social Sciences Citation Index kompletterade med manuella sökningar identifierades 42 relevanta studier. De flesta (34) av de 42 studierna presenterar genusspecifika estimat av sambandet mellan totalkonsumtionen av alkohol och självmord. Av dessa var 53 % signifikant positiva för män, motsvarande siffra för kvinnor var 37 %. Ingen studie rapporterade ett signifikant negativt samband. Det finns en tydlig kulturell variation i sambandets styrka; det tenderar att vara starkare ju mer landets dryckesmönster är inriktat mot berusningsdrickande. Det konkluderas att studierna utgör en breddning av såväl självmordsforskning (genom att inkludera alkoholfaktorn) som alkoholepidemiologisk forskning (genom att bredda utfallspanoramat från somatiska till sociala skador). De flesta studier baseras dock på data från utvecklade västländer. Framtida studier bör vidgas till ett bredare urval av länder.

  • 19.
    Norström, Thor
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutet för social forskning (SOFI).
    The role of alcohol in the Russian mortality crisis2011Ingår i: Addiction, ISSN 0965-2140, E-ISSN 1360-0443, Vol. 106, nr 11, s. 1957-1965Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Aims  Alcohol is believed to be an important factor behind the sharp rise in mortality during the period 1990-94 in Russia. However, the rise in the standard alcohol consumption proxy does not seem to be sufficient to explain all the increase in mortality. This study adopts a novel approach to exploring the role of the alcohol factor in the increased mortality by investigating whether the mismatch between trends in mortality and recorded alcohol consumption is due to an underestimation of the consumption increase. Design and measurements  First, the alcohol effect on the male accident rate was estimated using data for the period 1959-89. Next, the estimated alcohol effect and the observed accident mortality rate for the period 1990-98 were used to backcast alcohol consumption during that period. Thirdly, the backcasted alcohol series was used to predict trajectories in alcohol poisoning mortality, the homicide rate and all-cause mortality during the period 1990-98. Findings  There was a markedly stronger increase in the backcasted consumption proxy than in the standard alcohol consumption proxy during the period 1990-98. There was a substantial gap between the observed mortality rates and the rates predicted from the standard alcohol consumption proxy, whereas the predictions from the backcasted alcohol proxy were much closer to the target. Conclusions  Much of the rise in Russian mortality in 1990-94 appears to have been due to the increase in population drinking, but this increase is grossly underestimated by the commonly used consumption proxy combining alcohol sales, estimation of illicit alcohol production and proportion of alcohol-positive violent deaths. 

  • 20.
    Norström, Thor
    et al.
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Sociologiska institutionen.
    Boman, Ulrika
    Leifman, Håkan
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Centrum för socialvetenskaplig alkohol- och drogforskning (SoRAD).
    Debatt 12/4 Ny rapport: Ökat drickande leder till fler sjukskrivna män2005Ingår i: Göteborgsposten, ISSN 1103-9345, Vol. Del 1, s. 43-Artikel i tidskrift (Övrig (populärvetenskap, debatt, mm))
  • 21.
    Norström, Thor
    et al.
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutet för social forskning (SOFI).
    Grönqvist, Hans
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutet för social forskning (SOFI).
    The Great Recession, unemployment and suicide2015Ingår i: Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health, ISSN 0143-005X, E-ISSN 1470-2738, Vol. 69, nr 2, s. 110-116Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Background: How have suicide rates responded to the marked increase in unemployment spurred by the Great Recession? Our paper puts this issue into a wider perspective by assessing (1) whether the unemployment-suicide link is modified by the degree of unemployment protection, and (2) whether the effect on suicide of the present crisis differs from the effects of previous economic downturns.

    Methods: We analysed the unemployment-suicide link using time-series data for 30 countries spanning the period 1960-2012. Separate fixed-effects models were estimated for each of five welfare state regimes with different levels of unemployment protection (Eastern, Southern, Anglo-Saxon, Bismarckian and Scandinavian). We included an interaction term to capture the possible excess effect of unemployment during the Great Recession.

    Results: The largest unemployment increases occurred in the welfare state regimes with the least generous unemployment protection. The unemployment effect on male suicides was statistically significant in all welfare regimes, except the Scandinavian one. The effect on female suicides was significant only in the eastern European country group. There was a significant gradient in the effects, being stronger the less generous the unemployment protection. The interaction term capturing the possible excess effect of unemployment during the financial crisis was not significant.

    Conclusions: Our findings suggest that the more generous the unemployment protection the weaker the detrimental impact on suicide of the increasing unemployment during the Great Recession.

  • 22.
    Norström, Thor
    et al.
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutet för social forskning (SOFI).
    Hemström, Örjan
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Centrum för forskning om ojämlikhet i hälsa (CHESS).
    Leifman, Håkan
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Centrum för socialvetenskaplig alkohol- och drogforskning (SoRAD).
    Ramstedt, Mats
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Centrum för socialvetenskaplig alkohol- och drogforskning (SoRAD).
    Trolldal, Björn
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Centrum för socialvetenskaplig alkohol- och drogforskning (SoRAD).
    Concluding policy implications2002Ingår i: Alcohol in Postwar Europe: Consumption, Drinking Patterns, Consequences and Policy Responses in 15 European Countries / [ed] Norström, T., Stockholm: National Institute of Public Health [Folkhälsoinstitutet] :Almqvist & Wiksell International , 2002, s. 220-225Kapitel i bok, del av antologi (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
  • 23.
    Norström, Thor
    et al.
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutet för social forskning (SOFI).
    Hemström, Örjan
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Centrum för forskning om ojämlikhet i hälsa (CHESS).
    Leifman, Håkan
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Centrum för socialvetenskaplig alkohol- och drogforskning (SoRAD).
    Ramstedt, Mats
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Centrum för socialvetenskaplig alkohol- och drogforskning (SoRAD).
    Trolldal, Björn
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Centrum för socialvetenskaplig alkohol- och drogforskning (SoRAD).
    Conclusions2002Ingår i: Alcohol in Postwar Europe: Consumption, Drinking Patterns, Consequences and Policy Responses in 15 European Countries / [ed] Norström, T., Stockholm: National Institute of Public Health and Almqvist & Wiksell International , 2002, s. 185-194Kapitel i bok, del av antologi (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
  • 24.
    Norström, Thor
    et al.
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutet för social forskning (SOFI).
    Hemström, Örjan
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Centrum för forskning om ojämlikhet i hälsa (CHESS).
    Ramstedt, Mats
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Centrum för socialvetenskaplig alkohol- och drogforskning (SoRAD).
    Rossow, Ingeborg
    Skog, Ole-Jørgen
    Mortality and population drinking2002Ingår i: Alcohol in postwar Europe: consumption, drinking patterns, consequences and policy responses in 15 European countries / [ed] Thor Norström, Stockholm: National Institute of Public Health [Folkhälsoinstitutet] , 2002, s. 157-176Kapitel i bok, del av antologi (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
  • 25.
    Norström, Thor
    et al.
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutet för social forskning (SOFI).
    Miller, Ted
    Services Research Institute Pacific Institute for Research and Evaluation Calverton, MD, USA.
    Holder, Harald
    Prevention Research Center Pacific Institute for Research and Evaluation Berkeley, CA, USA.
    Österberg, Esa
    Alcohol and Drug Research National Institute for Health and Welfare, Helsinki, Finland.
    Ramstedt, Mats
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Centrum för socialvetenskaplig alkohol- och drogforskning (SoRAD).
    Rossow, Ingeborg
    Norwegian Institute for Alcohol and Drug Research Oslo, Norway.
    Stockwell, Tim
    Centre for Addictions Research of BC Department of Psychology University of Victoria Victoria, BC, Canada .
    Potential Consequences of Replacing a Retail Alcohol Monopoly with a Private License System: Results from Sweden2010Ingår i: Addiction, ISSN 0965-2140, E-ISSN 1360-0443, Vol. 105, nr 12, s. 2113-2119Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Aim  To examine the potential effects of replacing the Swedish alcohol retail system with a private licensing system on alcohol consumption and alcohol-related harm.

    Design  Two possible scenarios were analysed: (1) replacing the current alcohol retail monopoly with private licensed stores that specialize in alcohol sales or (2) making all alcohol available in grocery stores. We utilized a multiplicative model that projected effects of changes in a set of key factors including hours of sale, retail prices, promotion and advertising and outlet density. Next, we estimated the effect of the projected consumption increase on a set of harm indicators. Values for the model parameters were obtained from the research literature.

    Measurements  Measures of alcohol-related harm included explicitly alcohol-related mortality, accident mortality, suicide, homicide, assaults, drinking driving and sickness absence.

    Findings  According to the projections, scenario 1 yields a consumption increase of 17% (1.4 litres/capita), which in turn would cause an additional 770 deaths, 8500 assaults, 2700 drinking driving offences and 4.5 million sick days per year. The corresponding figures for scenario 2 are a consumption increase of 37.4% (3.1 litres/capita) leading to an additional annual toll of 2000 deaths, 20 000 assaults, 6600 drinking driving offences and 11.1 million days of sick leave.

    Conclusions  Projections based on the research literature suggest that privatization of the Swedish alcohol retail market would significantly increase alcohol consumption and alcohol-related harm.

  • 26.
    Norström, Thor
    et al.
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutet för social forskning (SOFI).
    Moan, I.M.
    Per capital alcohol consumption and sickness absence in Norway2009Ingår i: The European Journal of Public Health, Vol. 19, s. 383-388Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
  • 27.
    Norström, Thor
    et al.
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutet för social forskning (SOFI).
    Mäkelä, Pia
    The connection between per capita alcohol consumption and alcohol-specific mortality accounting for unrecorded alcohol consumption: The case of Finland 1975-20152019Ingår i: Drug and Alcohol Review, ISSN 0959-5236, E-ISSN 1465-3362, Vol. 38, nr 7, s. 731-736Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Introduction and Aims

    Unrecorded alcohol consumption has increased strongly in Finland after 1995 when the country joined the European Union. This development may have rendered alcohol sales less trustworthy as a proxy for population drinking, and less powerful as predictor of alcohol‐related harm. The study aims to test this contention by analyzing the association between recorded and unrecorded alcohol consumption on the one hand, and alcohol‐specific mortality on the other.

    Design and Methods

    We analysed age‐standardised rates of alcohol‐specific deaths for the working‐age (15–64 years) population. For alcohol consumption, we used (i) alcohol sales in litres of 100% alcohol per capita, and (ii) estimated unrecorded consumption in litres of 100% alcohol per capita. The data spanned the period 1975–2015. As the data were cointegrated, the relations between mortality and the alcohol indicators were estimated through time‐series analysis of the raw data.

    Results

    A one litre increase in alcohol sales was associated with an increase in alcohol‐specific deaths of 7.590 deaths per 100 000; the corresponding figure for unrecorded consumption was 9.112 deaths per 100 000. Both estimates were statistically significant (P < 0.001), but the difference between them was not significant (P = 0.293). Although recoded consumption captured the main feature of the trends in alcohol‐specific mortality, it accounted for only half of its marked increase in 1975–2007, while unrecorded consumption explained the remaining part.

    Discussion and Conclusions

    Our study confirms previous findings that recorded alcohol consumption is an important determinant of alcohol‐specific mortality in Finland. A more novel insight is the importance of unrecorded consumption in this context.

  • 28.
    Norström, Thor
    et al.
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutet för social forskning (SOFI).
    Palme, Joakim
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutet för social forskning (SOFI).
    Public pension institutions and old-age mortality in comparative perspective2010Ingår i: International Journal of Social Welfare, ISSN 1369-6866, E-ISSN 1468-2397, Vol. 19, nr Supplement s1, s. s121-s130Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    The aim of the study was to estimate the impact of changes in pension rights on old-age mortality. We made a distinction between two dimensions of pension benefits, one of providing basic security (BASIC), and the other of providing income security (INCOME). Analyses were based on data for 18 OECD countries during the post-war period. The outcome comprised old-age excess mortality, defined as the ratio of the mortality rate 65+ to the mortality rate in the age group 30–59 years. The latter was regarded as a proxy for unobserved factors potentially related to old-age mortality as well as pension rights. The pooled cross-sectional time series data were analysed through fixed effects modelling. The results suggest that BASIC (but not INCOME) has a beneficial impact on old-age excess mortality, which was statistically significant. We interpret the results in terms of the poverty-reducing effects of pension entitlements with a basic security orientation.

  • 29.
    Norström, Thor
    et al.
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutet för social forskning (SOFI).
    Pape, H.
    Alcohol, suppressed anger and violence2010Ingår i: Addiction, ISSN 0965-2140, E-ISSN 1360-0443, Vol. 105, nr 9, s. 1580-1586Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Aims Is alcohol related causally to violence, and if so, is the effect of drinking contingent on suppressed anger such that it is strongest among individuals who are highly inclined to withhold angry feelings? We addressed these questions by analysing panel data using a method that diminishes the effects of confounding factors. Design We analysed data on heavy episodic drinking and violent behaviour from the second (1994) and third (1999) waves of the Young in Norway Longitudinal Study ( n = 2697; response rate: 67%). The first difference method was applied to estimate the association between these behaviours, implying that changes in the frequency of violence were regressed on changes in the frequency of drinking. Hence, the effects of time-invariant confounders were eliminated. Analyses were conducted for the whole sample, and for groups scoring low, medium and high on a short version of the STAXI anger suppression scale. Findings Changes in drinking were related positively and significantly to changes in violent behaviour, but the alcohol effect varied with the level of suppressed anger: it was strongest in the high-anger group (elasticity estimate = 0.053, P = 0.011) and weakest (and insignificant) in the low-anger group (elasticity estimate = 0.004, P = 0.806). Conclusions Alcohol use may be related causally to violence, but the effect of drinking is confined to individuals who are inclined to suppress their angry feelings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

  • 30.
    Norström, Thor
    et al.
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutet för social forskning (SOFI). Norwegian Institute for Alcohol and Drug Research, Norway.
    Pape, Hilde
    Associations between adolescent heavy drinking and problem drinking in early adulthood: Implications for prevention2012Ingår i: Journal of Studies on Alcohol and Drugs, ISSN 1937-1888, E-ISSN 1938-4114, Vol. 73, nr 4, s. 542-548Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Objective: We assessed how heavy episodic drinking (HED) in adolescence (Time 1) was related to hazardous drinking as well as symptoms of alcohol problems and dependence in early adulthood (Time 2). The key question was to what extent preventive measures targeted at underage HED may have a potential to reduce problem drinking in early adulthood. Method: Data are from the 1992 (Time 1, ages 14-17 years) and 2005 (Time 2) waves of the Young in Norway Longitudinal Study (N = 1,764). In addition to odds ratios and relative risks, we calculated population-attributable fractions to estimate how the prevalence of hazardous drinking and alcohol problems in early adulthood would be affected if adolescent HED at various frequencies were eliminated. The results were adjusted for age, gender, and measures on impulsivity and delinquency. Results: The risk of problem drinking at Time 2 increased with increasing frequency of HED at Time 1, but a great deal of discontinuity in drinking behaviors was also observed. The population-attributable fractions indicated that if all instances of HED at Time 1 were eliminated, the expected reduction in hazardous drinking and alcohol problems at Time 2 would be 11% and 15%, respectively. Conclusions: Because of a marked discontinuity in drinking behaviors from adolescence to early adulthood, the potential long-term effects of interventions targeted at HED among youth are likely to be limited.

  • 31.
    Norström, Thor
    et al.
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutet för social forskning (SOFI).
    Pape, Hilde
    Innovative but insufficient?: In Letters to the Editor: A response to Graham's commentary on 'Alcohol, suppressed anger and violence'. Addiction, 105: 2219-2220.2010Övrigt (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
  • 32.
    Norström, Thor
    et al.
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutet för social forskning (SOFI).
    Ramstedt, Mats
    The Link Between Per Capita Alcohol Consumption and Alcohol-Related Harm in Sweden, 1987–20152018Ingår i: Journal of Studies on Alcohol and Drugs, ISSN 1937-1888, E-ISSN 1938-4114, Vol. 79, nr 4, s. 578-584Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Objective:

    Recent studies have suggested a weakening of the relationship between population drinking and harm in Sweden. The aim of the present article was to estimate this association on the basis of more recent Swedish time-series data.

    Method:

    The Swedish state monopoly’s (Systembolaget) alcohol sales were used as a proxy for population drinking, expressed in liters 100% alcohol per capita ages 15 and older. As indicators of harm we used mortality (cirrhosis mortality, accidents, and suicide), police-reported assaults, and drink driving. Quarterly data on mortality and alcohol consumption spanned the period 1987Q1–2015Q1, and the data on police-reported offenses covered the period 1995Q1–2015Q1. Data were analyzed by applying the technique of seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) modeling.

    Results:

    We found a positive and statistically significant association between population drinking and all harm indicators. A 1 L increase in per capita consumption was associated with a 19% increase in cirrhosis mortality and a 17% increase in drink driving. The effects on the other harm rates were estimated to be between 11% and 13%. These estimates are in line with earlier findings except the estimate for cirrhosis, which was weaker and now similar to findings for other countries.

    Conclusions:

    The results provide continuing support for a strong relationship between population drinking and alcohol-related harm in Sweden. Policy measures aimed at lowering the level of drinking gained support from these results.

  • 33.
    Norström, Thor
    et al.
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutet för social forskning (SOFI).
    Ramstedt, Mats
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Centrum för socialvetenskaplig alkohol- och drogforskning (SoRAD).
    Totalkonsumtionen av alkohol 1995-2007 - ekonomiska faktorer viktigare än tillgänglighet2009Ingår i: Alkohol & Narkotika, ISSN 0345-0732, Vol. 103, nr 3, s. 28-33Artikel i tidskrift (Övrig (populärvetenskap, debatt, mm))
  • 34.
    Norström, Thor
    et al.
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutet för social forskning (SOFI).
    Ramstedt, Mats
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Centrum för socialvetenskaplig alkohol- och drogforskning (SoRAD).
    Unregistered alcohol consumption and alcohol-related harm in Sweden, 2001-20052008Ingår i: Nordic Studies on Alcohol and Drugs, ISSN 1455-0725, Vol. 25, nr 2, s. 101-113Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
  • 35.
    Norström, Thor
    et al.
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutet för social forskning (SOFI).
    Ramstedt, Mats
    Svensson, Johan
    Extended opening hours at nightclubs in Visby: An evaluation of a trial in the summer of 20142018Ingår i: Nordic Studies on Alcohol and Drugs, ISSN 1455-0725, E-ISSN 1458-6126, Vol. 35, nr 5, s. 388-396Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Background and aims:

    During 10 weeks in the summer 2014 opening hours in nightclubs in Visby (Sweden) were extended by 1 hour, postponing the permitted closing time from 2 to 3 a.m. A number of preventive efforts such as Responsible Server Training, and an intensified cooperation between the police and the nightclubs were strengthened in connection with the trial. The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of this trial on police-reported violence.

    Data and methods:

    To estimate the effect of the trial on violence, we compared the violence rate during the intervention period (week 24–week 33, 2014) with the violence rate in the corresponding period in Visby in 2010–2013. The intervention period thus comprised 10 weeks, and the pre-intervention period 40 weeks. As outcome measure we chose police-reported assaults that had occurred at night (midnight–6 a.m.). As control series we used assaults daytime (6 a.m.–midnight). The intervention effect was estimated with the method of “difference in differences” (DiD). Interviews with key informants provided the study with an explanatory context for the trial outcomes.

    Results:

    The intervention effect was strongly statistically significant with a reduction of 3.336 reported assaults at night per week compared to the pre-intervention period. This represents a decrease of 71%.

    Conclusion:

    The trial with an extension of opening hours at nightclubs in Visby was followed by a reduction in police-reported violence. This unexpected outcome is likely to be the result of (i) the simultaneous strengthening of efficient preventive measures, and (ii) a decreased congestion in the streets resulting from increased spread in closing hours.

  • 36.
    Norström, Thor
    et al.
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutet för social forskning (SOFI). Swedish Council for Information on Alcohol and Other Drugs (CAN), Sweden.
    Raninen, Jonas
    Drinking trajectories of at‐risk groups: Does the theory of the collectivity of drinking apply?2018Ingår i: Drug and Alcohol Review, ISSN 0959-5236, E-ISSN 1465-3362, Vol. 37, nr S1, s. S15-S21Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Introduction and Aims

    Alcohol consumption among Swedish adolescents has halved during the last decade. We aim to: (i) investigate whether the overall decrease in drinking may conceal an underlying heterogeneity in drinking trajectories across at‐risk groups that differ with respect to risk for drinking and; (ii) assess to what degree alcohol‐related harm has responded to this decrease.

    Design and Methods

    Data were obtained from the nationally representative annual school survey of alcohol and drug habits among Swedish ninth‐grade students covering the period 2000–2012 (n ≈ 5000/year). Respondents were divided into five at‐risk groups ranging from low to high based on their relative ranking on a risk scale for drinking. Alcohol consumption was measured by beverage‐specific quantity and frequency items summarised into a measure of overall drinking in litres of 100% alcohol per year. Alcohol‐related harm was measured by eight items asking about whether the respondent had experienced various alcohol‐related negative consequences.

    Results

    Drinking and alcohol‐related harm decreased in all five at‐risk groups. There was a marked relation between the overall consumption and the mean consumption in each of the five at‐risk groups. Self‐reported alcohol‐related harm decreased during the study period to an extent that was expected from the decrease in alcohol consumption.

    Discussion and Conclusions

    Alcohol consumption among Swedish youth has declined in five groups that were delineated based on their relative ranking on a risk factor index. The findings are consistent with Skog's theory of the collectivity of drinking behaviour. [Norström T, Raninen J. Drinking trajectories of at‐risk groups: Does the theory of the collectivity of drinking apply?.

  • 37.
    Norström, Thor
    et al.
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutet för social forskning (SOFI).
    Raninen, Jonas
    Is there a link between per capita alcohol consumption and youth drinking? A time–series analysis for Sweden in 1972–20122015Ingår i: Addiction, ISSN 0965-2140, E-ISSN 1360-0443, Vol. 110, nr 6, s. 967-974Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Aims

    To estimate the relationship between per capita alcohol consumption and youth drinking in Sweden during the last 40 years and to estimate the relationship between female and male youth drinking during the 40-year study period.

    Design, setting, participants and measurements

    Per capita alcohol consumption was proxied by official sales data, supplemented by data on unrecorded consumption. Youth consumption was measured by a question on heavy episodic drinking (HED) included in an annual school survey of alcohol and drug habits among Swedish 9th -grade students (15–16 years of age). The annual samples comprise approximately 5000 individuals (with roughly equal numbers of boys and girls) with response rates in the range 80–93%. The study spans the period 1972–2012. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) time–series analysis was used to estimate the relation between per-capita alcohol consumption and youth drinking. Ocular inspection of the time–series data suggested a stronger synchronization between the two series in the early period, before the mid-1990s, than in the later period, indicating a structural shift in the relation at issue. We therefore conducted period specific time–series analyses with 1995 as the year of division.

    Results

    There was a statistically significant relation between per capita alcohol consumption and HED among youth for 1972–94. A 1% increase in per capita alcohol consumption was associated with an increase in HED of 1.52% (P = 0.008). The estimate for 1995–2012 (0.12) was well below statistical significance (P = 0.580). The estimated elasticity of the association between boys’ and girls’ HED during 1972–94 was close to unity (0.98, P < 0.001), suggesting proportional changes in boys’ and girls’ drinking. When controlling for per capita consumption, the association was halved (to 0.55) but still significant in table 3 (P = 0.045).

    Conclusions

    Adult and youth drinking in Sweden were synchronized closely during the two last decades of the 20th century, but youth drinking developed an independent trajectory shortly before 2000.

  • 38.
    Norström, Thor
    et al.
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutet för social forskning (SOFI).
    Razvodovsky, Yury
    Per capita alcohol consumption and alcohol-related harm in Belarus, 1970-20052010Ingår i: European Journal of Public Health, ISSN 1101-1262, E-ISSN 1464-360X, Vol. 20, nr 5, s. 564-568Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Background: Although alcohol seems to be an important determinant of the mortality crisis in the former Soviet Republic of Belarus, little systematic research has been done on the relationship between alcohol consumption and harm at the aggregate level. The aims of the present study were to estimate the effect of per capita alcohol consumption on all-cause mortality, mortality from alcohol poisoning and hospital admissions for alcohol psychosis in Belarus. Methods: Annual data on the three outcomes and alcohol sale per capita for the period 1970–2005 were analysed using the Box–Jenkins technique. Female mortality was included as a control variable and regarded as a proxy for other causal factors. To incorporate the lag structure, a weighted input was used in which a geometrical lag-scheme was applied. Results: The outcomes suggest that a 1 l increase in consumption was associated with an increase in male all-cause mortality of ∼2.3%. The corresponding figures for alcohol poisoning mortality and alcohol psychosis admissions are 12 and 25%. Conclusions: The present study strengthens the notion of alcohol consumption as an important determinant of population health in this part of the world, and thus the notion that alcohol control must be a key priority for Belorussian public health policy.

  • 39.
    Norström, Thor
    et al.
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutet för social forskning (SOFI).
    Rossow, I
    On the mis-match between population drinking and drink driving :: response to Gjerde et al.2014Ingår i: Addiction, ISSN 0965-2140, E-ISSN 1360-0443, Vol. 109, nr 2, s. 333-334Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
  • 40.
    Norström, Thor
    et al.
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutet för social forskning (SOFI).
    Rossow, Ingeborg
    Alcohol Consumption as a Risk Factor for Suicidal Behavior: A Systematic Review of Associations at the Individual and at the Population Level2016Ingår i: Archives of Suicide Research, ISSN 1381-1118, E-ISSN 1573-8159, nr 20, s. 489-506Artikel, forskningsöversikt (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    The objective of this study was to provide an updated review of the magnitude of the relationship between alcohol use and suicidal behaviour at the individual and the population level. Systematic literature searches retrieved 14 reviews of individual level studies and 16 primary population level studies. Alcohol abuse and alcohol intoxication are often present in suicidal behaviour; risk of suicide is elevated in alcohol abusers and increasing population drinking tends to be associated with increase in suicide rates. Estimated magnitude of the relationship differs for men and women and it varies at the population level across cultures with different drinking pattern. These variations probably reflect gender differences and cultural variation in drinking behavior generally. Empirical evidence for a causal relationship is still urgently needed.

  • 41.
    Norström, Thor
    et al.
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutet för social forskning (SOFI).
    Rossow, Ingeborg
    Cannabis use and violence: is there a link?2014Ingår i: Scandinavian Journal of Public Health, ISSN 1403-4948, E-ISSN 1651-1905, Vol. 42, nr 4, s. 358-363Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Background: While several studies suggest that cannabis users are at increased risk of interpersonal violence, it is not clear to what extent the association is causal. Our paper aims to assess the association between cannabis use and violence by using a method that diminishes the risk of confounding. Methods: We analysed data on cannabis use and violent behaviour from the second (1994) and third (1999) waves of the Young in Norway Longitudinal Study (cumulative response rate: 68.1%, n = 2681). We applied fixed-effects modelling to estimate the association between these behaviours, implying that changes in the frequency of violence were regressed on changes in the frequency of cannabis use. The effects of time-invariant confounders were hence eliminated. In addition, we included two time-varying covariates. Results: The elasticity estimate implies that a 10% increase in cannabis use frequency is associated with a 0.4% increase in frequency of violence (p=.024). Conclusions: Analyses of panel data on Norwegian youths reveals a statistically significant association between cannabis use and violence.

  • 42.
    Norström, Thor
    et al.
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutet för social forskning (SOFI). Norwegian Inst Alcohol & Drug Res SIRUS, Oslo.
    Rossow, Ingeborg
    Population drinking and drink driving in Norway and Sweden: an analysis of historical data 1957–892013Ingår i: Addiction, ISSN 0965-2140, E-ISSN 1360-0443, Vol. 108, nr 6, s. 1051-1058Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Aim Research suggests an association between population drinking and a large number of outcomes. However, driving while under the influence of alcohol (DWI) is conspicuously absent from this list of outcomes. The aim of this study was to estimate the relation between DWI and total consumption of alcohol on annual timeseries data for Norway and Sweden. Design, setting, and measurements For Norway, we used data on convictions for DWI per 100000 inhabitants (aged 1569 years). The DWI proxy for Sweden comprised the proportion (%) of all police-reported traffic accidents with personal injuries where the driver was under the influence of alcohol. Data on total alcohol sales in litres of pure alcohol per inhabitant (aged 15 years and older) were used as proxy for total alcohol consumption. We focused on the period 195789, during which the legislation concerning DWI remained unchanged in Norway as well as in Sweden. The statistical analyses were based on co-integrated models. Findings The estimates of the association between DWI and per capita alcohol consumption were strongly significant in Norway as well as in Sweden. For Norway, the estimated elasticity equalled 2 (P<0.001) and for Sweden 1.5 (P<0.001). Conclusions In Norway and Sweden, as total population level of alcohol consumption increases or decreases so does the incidence of driving while intoxicated.

  • 43.
    Norström, Thor
    et al.
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutet för social forskning (SOFI). Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Norway.
    Rossow, Ingeborg
    Pape, Hilde
    Social inequality in youth violence: The role of heavy episodic drinking2018Ingår i: Drug and Alcohol Review, ISSN 0959-5236, E-ISSN 1465-3362, Vol. 37, nr 2, s. 162-169Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Introduction and Aims. Alcohol use is an important risk factor for violence, and violent behaviour is more prevalent in lower socioeconomic status (SES) groups. The aim of this study was to examine whether the SES difference in youth violence can be explained by differential exposure to—and/or differential vulnerability to—heavy episodic drinking (HED). In the latter case, effect modification by impulsivity could be assumed. Design and Methods. We analysed cross-sectional data from a school survey of 15- to 17-year-olds in Norway (n = 9853). We employed two measures of low-SES group. Associations between SES, HED and violence were estimated by Poisson regressions, applying a residual centring procedure to test effect modification. Results. Violent behaviour frequency, HED frequency and impulsivity scores were all elevated in the low-SES group. The SES difference in violent behaviour was significantly reduced when adjusting for HED. The stronger association between HED and violence in the low, compared with the medium-SES/high-SES group, was modified when accounting for impulsivity. Sensitivity analyses suggested robust findings. Discussion and Conclusions. The findings lend support to both the differential exposure hypothesis and to the differential vulnerability hypothesis as well as the hypothesis of an enhancing effect of impulsivity on the HED—violence association. The SES difference in youth violence can be accounted for by: (i) an elevated prevalence of HED in low-SES groups; and (ii) a stronger than average link between HED and violence in low-SES groups due to their higher than average impulsivity score. [Norström T, Rossow I, Pape H. Social inequality in youth violence: The role of heavy episodic drinking. Drug Alcohol Rev 2017;00:000-000]

  • 44.
    Norström, Thor
    et al.
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutet för social forskning (SOFI).
    Skog, Ole-Jörgen
    Senter for höyere studier, Det Norske Videnskaps-Akademi.
    Effekter av lördagsöppna systembolagsbutiker. Uppföljning av de första 17 månaderna2002Rapport (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
  • 45.
    Norström, Thor
    et al.
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutet för social forskning (SOFI).
    Stickley, Andrew
    Alcohol tax, consumption and mortality in tsarist Russia: is a public health perspective applicable?2013Ingår i: European Journal of Public Health, ISSN 1101-1262, E-ISSN 1464-360X, Vol. 2, nr 23, s. 340-344Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Background: The public health perspective on alcohol comprises two main tenets: (i) population drinking impacts on alcohol-related harm and (ii) population drinking is affected by the physical and economic availability of alcohol, where alcohol taxes are the most efficient measure for regulating consumption. This perspective has received considerable empirical support from analyses of contemporary data mainly from Europe and North America. However, as yet, it has been little examined in a historical context. The aims of the present article are to use data from tsarist Russia to explore (i) the relation between changes in the tax on alcohol and per capita alcohol consumption and (ii) the relation between per capita alcohol consumption and alcohol mortality. Methods: The material comprised annual data on alcohol taxes, alcohol consumption and alcohol mortality. The tax and alcohol consumption series spanned the period 1864–1907 and the mortality data covered the period 1870–94. The data were analysed by estimating autoregressive integrated moving average models on differenced data. Results: Changes in alcohol taxes were significantly associated with alcohol consumption in the expected direction. Increases in alcohol consumption, in turn, were significantly related to increases in alcohol mortality. Conclusion: This study provides support for the utility of the public health perspective on alcohol in explaining changes in consumption and alcohol-related harm in a historical context. We discuss our findings from tsarist Russia in the light of experiences from more recent alcohol policy changes in Russia.

  • 46.
    Norström, Thor
    et al.
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutet för social forskning (SOFI).
    Stickley, Andrew
    Shibuya, Kenji
    The importance of alcoholic beverage type for suicide in Japan: A time-series analysis, 1963-20072012Ingår i: Drug and Alcohol Review, ISSN 0959-5236, E-ISSN 1465-3362, Vol. 31, nr 3, s. 251-256Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Background. Japan has one of the highest suicide rates in the world. Cohort analysis has suggested that alcohol consumption is a risk factor for suicide in Japan. However, this relationship has not been observed at the population level when a measure of per capita total alcohol consumption has been analysed. The present study employed a time-series analysis to examine whether these contradictory findings may be due to the existence of beverage-specific effects on suicide. Methods. An autoregressive integrated moving average model was used to assess the relationship between the consumption of different types of alcohol and suicide rates from 1963 to 2007. The data comprised age-adjusted suicide rates for the ages 15-69, and information on beverage-specific alcohol consumption per capita (15+). The unemployment rate was included as a control variable. Results. During 1963-2007, male suicide rates increased substantially whereas female rates decreased slightly. Consumption of distilled spirits was significantly related to male suicide rates (but not in women) with a 1 L increase in consumption associated with a 21.4% (95% confidence interval: 3.2-42.9) increase in male suicide rates. There was no statistically significant relationship between suicide and any other form of alcohol consumption (beer, wine, other alcohol). Conclusion. This is the first study that has shown an association between spirits consumption and male suicide in Japan. Potentially beneficial policy changes include increasing spirits prices through taxation, reducing the physical availability of alcohol and discouraging the practice of heavy drinking.

  • 47.
    Norström, Thor
    et al.
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutet för social forskning (SOFI).
    Storvoll, E.E.
    Rossow, I.
    Moan, I.S.
    Scheffels, J.
    Lauritzen, G.
    Skader og problemer forbundet med bruk av alkohol, narkotika og tobakk2010Rapport (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
  • 48.
    Norström, Thor
    et al.
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutet för social forskning (SOFI).
    Sundin, Erica
    Müller, Daniel
    Leifman, Håkan
    Hazardous drinking among restaurant workers2012Ingår i: Scandinavian Journal of Public Health, ISSN 1403-4948, E-ISSN 1651-1905, Vol. 40, nr 7, s. 591-595Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Background/aims: We address three research questions pertaining to Swedish restaurant workers: (i) What is the prevalence of hazardous drinking? (ii) How is the consumption of alcohol distributed? (iii) Does the prevention paradox apply? Methods: Data were collected by administering the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) among restaurant workers who attended a 2-day Responsible Beverage Service training in Stockholm during the period from October 2008 to December 2009. The control group comprised a sample representative of the general Swedish population. We restricted the analyses to the age span 18-59 years, which yielded a sample size of 579 for restaurant workers and 434 for the general population. Results: The prevalence of hazardous drinking as measured by AUDIT (8+ for men and 6+ for women) was markedly higher among restaurant workers than in the general population. The difference was especially pronounced among females below 30 years of age. We found no difference between restaurant workers and the general population in the distribution of alcohol consumption. About 76% of the drinking problems were found in the lower part of the consumption distribution (bottom 88%), which supports the prevention paradox. Conclusions: Restaurant workers comprise a high-risk group with respect to drinking.

  • 49.
    Norström, Thor
    et al.
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutet för social forskning (SOFI).
    Svensson, Johan
    No polarization in youth drinking in Stockholm county: response to Hallgren2014Ingår i: Addiction, ISSN 0965-2140, E-ISSN 1360-0443, Vol. 109, nr 8, s. 1385-1386Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
  • 50.
    Norström, Thor
    et al.
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutet för social forskning (SOFI).
    Svensson, Johan
    The declining trend in Swedish youth drinking: collectivity or polarization?2014Ingår i: Addiction, ISSN 0965-2140, E-ISSN 1360-0443, Vol. 109, nr 9, s. 1437-1446Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Aims: Alcohol consumption among youth in Sweden has declined markedly during the last decade. This study aims to tackle the following research questions: (i) how is the decrease in drinking distributed across consumption categories; and (ii) is the pattern of change in consumption consistent with Skog's theory of the collectivity of drinking behaviour?

    Design, Setting, Participants and Measurements: We analysed data from the nationally representative annual school survey of alcohol and drug habits among Swedish 9th-grade students (aged 15–16 years) covering the period 2000–12 (n ≈ 5000/year). Respondents were divided into seven drinking groups based on their relative ranking on consumption, which was measured by beverage-specific quantity and frequency items summarized into a measure of overall drinking in litres of 100% alcohol per year. In addition, the mean number of heavy episodic drinking occasions (HED) was computed for each drinking group.

    Findings: The decline in consumption among Swedish youth was mirrored in all seven drinking groups, although the relative decrease was smaller for heavy drinkers (top 5%) than for light drinkers (below the median). Among the top 5%, the average annual decrease was 2% (P = 0.027), while the corresponding figure for light drinkers was 28.9% (P < 0.001). The reverse pattern was true when looking at the absolute decrease. The decrease among the top 5% accounted for 26.1% of the decrease in mean consumption during the study period, whereas the light drinkers accounted for 2.9%. There was a marked relation between overall consumption, on one hand, and mean consumption and HED, on the other hand, in each of the seven drinking groups.

    Conclusion: The marked decrease in youth drinking in Sweden that occurred during the period 2000–12 was manifest at all consumption levels. The findings are consistent with Skog's theory of the collectivity of drinking behaviour.

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