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  • 1.
    Adjei, Nicholas Kofi
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Sociology. Leibniz Institute for Prevention Research and Epidemiology - BIPS, Germany; University of Bremen, Germany.
    Billingsley, Sunnee
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Sociology.
    Childbearing Behavior Before and After the 1994 Population Policies in Ghana2017In: Population: Research and Policy Review, ISSN 0167-5923, E-ISSN 1573-7829, Vol. 36, no 2, p. 251-271Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Due to the high population growth rate in the mid-20th century, the government of Ghana introduced population policies to reduce the growth rate. Encouraging girls' education and increasing contraceptive use were the two main policy measures to reduce population growth. In order to get a clear picture of the childbearing dynamics of Ghanaian women in response to the population policy of 1994, we analyzed individual reproductive histories from 1969 to 2003 using 2003 Ghana Demographic Health survey data to disentangle patterns by parity, calendar period, and educational groups. Exponential hazard regression models were used to estimate the relative risk of births. We find some evidence of a critical juncture in fertility trends, particularly for the fifth child. In addition, higher parity transition rates continuously declined for women with secondary or higher education and these educational levels were achieved by a higher share of the population after the policy was implemented. The 1994 population policy was successful if only by virtue of the increasing number of women with secondary or higher education. Belonging to this group is not only associated with lower fertility, but this suppressing effect strengthened in the years following the policy implementation. We also suspect that the increasing similarity between women with no education and with primary education reflects the diffusion of contraceptive knowledge and norms related to childbearing. The educational reform and contraceptive initiatives did result in increased education and contraceptive awareness and are therefore beneficial programs.

  • 2.
    Billingsley, Sunnee
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Sociology.
    Economic crisis and recovery: Changes in second birth rates within occupational classes and educational groups2011In: Demographic Research, ISSN 1435-9871, Vol. 24, p. 375-406, article id 16Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This study assesses the decline in second birth rates for men and women across different skill levels in transitional Russia. Changes within educational groups and occupational classes are observed over three distinct time periods: the Soviet era, economic crisis, and economic recovery. The most remarkable finding is the similarity in the extent second birth rates declined within educational groups and occupational classes during the economic crisis. Although further decline occurred in the recovery period, more variation emerged across groups.

  • 3.
    Billingsley, Sunnee
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Sociology.
    Exploring the Conditions for a Mortality Crisis: Bringing Context Back into the Debate2011In: Population, Space and Place, ISSN 1544-8444, E-ISSN 1544-8452, Vol. 17, no 3, p. 267-289Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This study engages with the debate over the mortality crises in the former Soviet Union and Central and Eastern Europe by (i) considering at length and as complementary to each other the two most prominent explanations for the post-communist mortality crisis, stress and alcohol consumption and by (ii) emphasising the importance of context by exploiting systematic similarities and differences across the region. Differential mortality trajectories reveal three country groups that cluster both spatially and in terms of economic transition experiences. The first group includes countries in the farthest west in which mortality rates increased minimally after the transition began. The second group experienced a severe increase in mortality rates in the early 1990s but recovered previous levels within a few years. These countries are located peripherally to Russia and its nearest neighbours. The final group consists of countries that experienced two mortality increases or in which mortality levels had not recovered to pre-transition levels well into the 21st century. Cross-sectional time-series analyses of age-specific and cause-specific death rates for men and women reveal that the clustering of these countries and their mortality trajectories can be partially explained by the economic context, which is argued to be linked to stress and alcohol consumption. Above and beyond many basic differences in the country groups that are held constant - including geographically and historically shared cultural, lifestyle, and social characteristics - poor economic conditions account for a remarkably consistent share of excess age-specific and cause-specific deaths.

  • 4.
    Billingsley, Sunnee
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Sociology.
    Intragenerational mobility and mortality in Russia: Short and longer-term effects2012In: Social Science and Medicine, ISSN 0277-9536, E-ISSN 1873-5347, Vol. 75, no 12, p. 2326-2336Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This study uses the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey to explore the relationship betweenmortality of men age 65 or younger and intragenerational mobility, measured objectively throughhousehold income and subjectively through social ranking. This relationship is considered in light of thesocial selection and social causation mechanisms developed in the literature as well as a proposedmechanism in which mobility itself is a consequential life event. The analysis spans the years 1994e2010,which covers the transitional period in Russia characterized by labor market restructuring and economiccrisis as well as a later period of economic growth and recovery. Using Cox proportional hazard models,immediate and longer-term associations between mobility and mortality are estimated. Both subjectiveand objective downward mobility had an immediate positive association with mortality risk (increasedby 44% and 24%, respectively). In contrast, upward mobility had a more pronounced effect over a longertermhorizon and lowered mortality risk by 17%. Controlling for destination status attenuated someassociations, but findings were robust to the adjustment of selection-related factors such as alcoholconsumption and health status in the year preceding mobility. Findings suggest that the negative relationshipbetween upward mobility and mortality may be driven by social causation, whereas downwardmobility may have an independent effect beyond selection or causation.

  • 5.
    Billingsley, Sunnee
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Sociology.
    Intragenerational social mobility and cause-specific premature mortality2019In: PLoS ONE, ISSN 1932-6203, E-ISSN 1932-6203, Vol. 14, no 2, article id e0211977Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This study explores whether there is a short-term relationship between intragenerational social mobility and mortality while individuals are working and whether it is widespread across different causes of death. Net of accumulated advantages and disadvantages, social mobility may influence mortality through health selection or changes in well-being. Men and women working in 1996 up to age 65 are observed annually until 2012 in Swedish register data. Time-varying covariates and origin and destination status are controlled for in discrete time event-history analyses. Results show that when men were upwardly mobile, mortality was lower due to cancer, CVD, IHD, and suicide. Upward mobility was only associated with lower odds of suicide for women. When downwardly mobile, cancer mortality was higher for both men and women and smoking-related cancer mortality was higher for men. Social mobility was not linked to deaths related to accidents and poisoning or alcohol-related mortality. The results may support a relationship between social mobility and mortality characterized by health selection: Only in the case of a chronic illness (cancer) was downward mobility associated with higher mortality. The widespread relationship between upward mobility and lower mortality for men may also indicate positive health selection into attaining a higher class and that individuals with poor health may be less likely to search for better positions or receive promotions.

  • 6.
    Billingsley, Sunnee
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Sociology.
    Second and Third Births in Armenia and Moldova: An Economic Perspective of Recent Behaviour and Current Preferences2011In: European Journal of Population, ISSN 0168-6577, E-ISSN 1572-9885, Vol. 27, no 2, p. 125-155Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Little is known about fertility in Armenia and Moldova, the two countries that have both, according to national statistics, experienced very low levels of fertility during the dramatic economic, social and political restructuring in the last two decades. This article fills this gap and explores recent fertility behaviour and current fertility preferences using 2005 Demographic and Health Survey data. Educational differences in fertility decline and the association between socioeconomic indicators and fertility preferences are considered from an economic perspective. Special emphasis is given to determining whether and how diverging economic conditions in the two countries as well as crisis conditions may have influenced fertility. Second parity progression ratios (PPR) reveal a positive relationship between the degree of decline from 1990 to 2005 and education, whereas third PPR declines appear the greatest for women with both the lowest and highest education. In both countries, logistic regression results suggest that working women are more likely to want a second child, as well as want the child sooner university than later in Armenia, and the wealthiest women in Armenia have a higher odds of wanting a third child. Dual-jobless couples are less likely to want a second child in Moldova and more likely to postpone the next child in Armenia. These findings offer some insight into the shifts in fertility behaviour in these two post-Soviet countries and suggest that despite diverging economic trajectories and a lessening commitment to the two-child norm in Moldova, determinants of fertility behaviour and preferences have remained similar in both countries.

  • 7.
    Billingsley, Sunnee
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Sociology.
    Sick leave absence and the relationship between intra-generational social mobility and mortality: health selection in Sweden2020In: BMC Public Health, ISSN 1471-2458, E-ISSN 1471-2458, Vol. 20, no 1, article id 8Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Background

    Poor health could influence how individuals are sorted into occupational classes. Health selection has therefore been considered a potential modifier to the mortality class gradient through differences in social mobility. Direct health selection in particular may operate in the short-term as poor health may lead to reduced work hours or achievement, downward social mobility, unemployment or restricted upward mobility, and death. In this study, the relationship between social mobility and mortality (all-cause, cancer-related, cardiovascular disease-related (CVD), and suicide) is explored when the relationship is adjusted for poor health.

    Methods

    Using Swedish register data (1996–2012) and discrete time event-history analysis, odds ratios and average marginal effects (AME) of social mobility and unemployment on mortality are observed before and after accounting for sickness absence in the previous year.

    Results

    After adjusting for sickness absence, all-cause mortality remained lower for men after upward mobility in comparison to not being mobile (OR 0.82, AME -0.0003, CI − 0.0003 to − 0.0002). Similarly, upward mobility continued to be associated with lower cancer-related mortality for men (OR 0.85, AME -0.00008, CI − 0.00002 to − 0.0002), CVD-related mortality for men (OR 0.76, AME -0.0001, CI − 0.00006 to − 0.0002) and suicide for women (OR 0.67, AME -0.00002, CI − 0.000002 to − 0.00003). The relationship between unemployment and mortality also persisted across most causes of death for both men and women after controlling for previous sickness absence. In contrast, adjusting for sickness absence renders the relationship between downward mobility and cancer-related mortality not statistically different from the non-mobile.

    Conclusions

    Health selection plays a role in how downward mobility is linked to cancer related deaths. It additionally accounts for a portion of why upward mobility is associated with lower mortality. That health selection plays a role in how social mobility and mortality are related may be unexpected in a context with strong job protection. Job protection does not, however, equalize opportunities for upward mobility, which may be limited for those who have been ill. Because intra-generational upward mobility and mortality remained related after adjusting for sickness absence, other important mechanisms such as indirect selection or social causation should be explored.

  • 8.
    Billingsley, Sunnee
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Sociology.
    Drefahl, Sven
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Sociology.
    Ghilagaber, Gebrenegus
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Statistics.
    An application of diagonal reference models and time-varying covariates in social mobility research on mortality and fertility2018In: Social Science Research, ISSN 0049-089X, E-ISSN 1096-0317, Vol. 75, p. 73-82Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In social mobility research, the diagonal reference model (DRM) is argued to best isolate the effect of social mobility from origin and destination status effects. In demographic research, standard analyses of the duration until an event occurs rely heavily on the appropriate use of covariates that change over time. We apply these best-practice methods to the study of social mobility and demographic outcomes in Sweden using register data that covers the years 1996–2012. The mortality analysis includes 1,024,142 women and 747,532 men and the fertility analysis includes 191,142 women and 164,368 men. We identify the challenges inherent in this combination and present strategies with an application to how social mobility is related to both fertility and mortality. Our application is successful at incorporating all requirements related to these methods. Our findings suggest, however, that certain data characteristics, such as a relatively high share of missing data, can be problematic. We also find that controlling for origin and destination status generally provides acceptable estimates of the mobility association in the specific case of Sweden and the relationship between social mobility and both fertility and mortality.

  • 9.
    Billingsley, Sunnee
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Sociology. Södertörn University, Sweden.
    Duntava, Aija
    Putting the pieces together: 40 years of fertility trends across 19 post-socialist countries2017In: Post-Soviet Affairs, ISSN 1060-586X, E-ISSN 1938-2855, Vol. 33, no 5, p. 389-410Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Demographic change has been a key consequence of transition, but few studies trace fertility trends across countries over time. We describe fertility trends immediately before and after the fall of state socialism across 19 Central and Eastern European and Central Asian countries. We found a few common patterns that may reflect economic and political developments. The countries that experienced the most successful transitions and integration into the EU experienced marked postponement of parenthood and a moderate decline in second and third births. Little economic change in the poorest transition countries was accompanied by less dramatic changes in childbearing behavior. In western post-Soviet contexts, and somewhat in Bulgaria and Romania, women became more likely to only have one child but parenthood was not substantially postponed. This unique demographic pattern seems to reflect an unwavering commitment to parenthood but economic conditions and opportunities that did not support having more than one child. In addition, we identify countries that would provide fruitful case studies because they do not fit general patterns.

  • 10.
    Billingsley, Sunnee
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Sociology.
    Ferrarini, Tommy
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, The Swedish Institute for Social Research (SOFI).
    Family Policy and Fertility Intentions in 21 European Countries2014In: Journal of Marriage and Family, ISSN 0022-2445, E-ISSN 1741-3737, Vol. 76, no 2, p. 428-445Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    European countries show substantial variation in family policy and in the extent to which policies support more traditional male-breadwinner or more gender egalitarian earner-carer family arrangements. Using data from the European Social Survey, the authors implemented multilevel models to analyze variation in fertility intentions of 16,000 men and women according to individual-level characteristics and family policy across 21 European countries. Both traditional and earner-carer family support generosity were positively related to first-birth intentions for men and women. In contrast, only earner-carer support maintains its positive relationship with second birth intentions. Family policy is not in general related to third and higher order parity intentions.

  • 11.
    Billingsley, Sunnee
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Sociology. Södertörns University, Sweden.
    Matysiak, Anna
    Social mobility and family expansion in Poland and Russia during socialism and capitalism2018In: Advances in Life Course Research, ISSN 1040-2608, Vol. 36, p. 80-91Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We explore whether social mobility influences fertility behavior, using multiple comparative layers to better observe structural and individual-level mechanisms at work. We locate this study in Poland and Russia during periods of socialism and capitalism. Applying event-history analysis techniques to longitudinal micro-data, we find evidence of a relationship between mobility and second birth risks for women only. Status enhancement aims seem the most plausible link between mobility and childbearing. The relationship appears moderated by the economic context, which we interpret as being related to differential selection into upward and downward mobility based on labor market opportunities. In general, the suppressing effect of upward mobility on second birth risks was stronger in the poorer economic context of Russia, whereas the increased second birth risks related to downward mobility were heightened in Poland's more prosperous context.

  • 12.
    Billingsley, Sunnee
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Sociology. Södertörn University, Sweden.
    Neyer, Gerda
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Sociology.
    Wesolowski, Katharina
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, The Swedish Institute for Social Research (SOFI). Uppsala University, Sweden.
    The influence of family policies on women´s childbearing: A longitudinal micro-data analysis of 21 countries2018Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    This study analyzes whether and how family policies are related to women’s first and second child transitions in 21 post-industrial countries. We adapt the social investment approach developed in welfare state research and distinguish between investment-oriented family policies and traditional, protection-oriented family policies. Our family policy indicators vary over time and are merged with fertility histories provided by harmonized individual level data. We use multilevel event-history models and control for time-varying unobserved heterogeneity at the country level and individual-level characteristics. Higher family-policy support of both types is correlated with the postponement of first births, particularly among young women, whereas traditional-family support is also correlated with postponement among older women and women in education. Both types of family support are linked to earlier first births among lower educated women. Only investment-oriented support is correlated with second birth transitions and this positive relationship does not vary for women with different educational levels.

  • 13.
    Billingsley, Sunnee
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Sociology. Södertörn University, Sweden.
    Puur, Allan
    Sakkeus, Luule
    Jobs, careers, and becoming a parent under state socialist and market conditions: Evidence from Estonia 1971-20062014In: Demographic Research, ISSN 1435-9871, Vol. 30, p. 1733-1768, article id 64Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    BACKGROUND

    Entering employment and achieving a stable position in the labour market are considered important preconditions for childbearing. Existing studies addressing the relationship between work experience and the timing of parenthood focus exclusively on Western Europe and North America. By adding an Eastern European context before and after societal transformation, this study contributes to a more comprehensive account of the role of work experience in first-birth timing in Europe.

    OBJECTIVE

    We investigate how work experience and career development are related to the timing of parenthood in two diverse contexts in Estonia, state socialism and the market economy, and how it varies by gender and nativity.

    METHOD

    The data used come from the Estonian Health Interview Survey 2006-2007. We estimate piecewise constant event history models to analyse the transition to first birth.

    RESULTS

    Our results suggest that in the market economy work experience became more important in the decision to enter parenthood. In the market economy the importance of work experience to entering parenthood became more similar for women and men. Non-native-origin men and women's timing of parenthood appears to have become detached from their career developments. The article discusses mechanisms that may underlie the observed patterns.

    CONCLUSIONS

    Our study shows how work experience gained importance as a precondition for parenthood in the transition to a market economy. This lends support to the view that the increasing importance of work experience is among plausible drivers of the postponement transition that extended to Eastern Europe in the 1990s.

  • 14. Sinyavskaya, Oxana
    et al.
    Billingsley, Sunnee
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Sociology.
    The importance of job characteristics to women’s fertility intentions and behavior in Russia2015In: Genus, ISSN 2035-5556, Vol. 71, no 1, p. 23-59Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We assess whether a relationship between employment conditions and fertility exists in the low-fertility context of Russia. Using multiple data sources, we study both intentions and transitions to the first and second birth. Occupational characteristics appear more related to the timing of entering parenthood than to having a second birth. Differences by occupational branch were few, but we find evidence that family-friendly job characteristics influence first and second intentions and conceptions. Attitudes toward work and family roles do not mediate this relationship. Women who change occupational branches after entering parenthood are less likely to continue childbearing.

  • 15.
    Svallfors, Signe
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Sociology.
    Billingsley, Sunnee
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Sociology.
    Conflict and Contraception in Colombia2019In: Studies in family planning, ISSN 0039-3665, E-ISSN 1728-4465, Vol. 50, no 2, p. 87-112Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This study explores how armed conflict relates to contraceptive use in Colombia, combining data from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program and Demographic and Health Surveys 1990-2016. Our study is the first systematic effort to investigate whether and how violent conflict influences women's contraceptive use, using nationally representative data across all stages of women's reproductive careers. With fixed effects linear probability models, we adjust for location-specific cultural, social, and economic differences. The results show that although modern contraceptive use increased over time, it declined according to conflict intensity across location and time. We find no evidence that this relationship varied across socioeconomic groups. Increased fertility demand appears to explain a small portion of this relationship, potentially reflecting uncertainty about losing a partner, but conflict may also result in lack of access to contraceptive goods and services.

  • 16.
    Uggla, Caroline
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Sociology.
    Billingsley, Sunnee
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Sociology.
    Unemployment, intragenerational social mobility and mortality in Finland: heterogeneity by age and economic context2018In: Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health, ISSN 0143-005X, E-ISSN 1470-2738, Vol. 72, no 11, p. 1003-1008Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Background We explore how mortality is related to unemployment and intragenerational social mobility in Finland. Unemployment and social mobility are two labour market experiences that are largely studied separately, despite the fact that selection processes into unemployment and downward mobility are intertwined. Because both causal and health selection mechanisms may vary depending on the timing of these experiences, we consider heterogeneity by age and economic context.

    Methods We run discrete time event history analysis for death (at age 30–75 years) in two periods (economic recession and growth) and analyse younger and older individuals and men and women separately.

    Results The odds of mortality were particularly high for individuals experiencing unemployment and when unemployment occurred during economic growth (OR ranging between 1.39 and 2.77). Younger men had high odds of mortality following unemployment (OR 1.86–2.77). In contrast, downward mobility was associated with higher odds of mortality only among older men and women and only during economic growth. The benefits of upward mobility were experienced mainly by younger men (OR ranging between 0.86 and 0.87) and were not experienced by women at all.

    Conclusion Results show that when in an individual’s life and the economic cycle unemployment and social mobility occur matters for whether these experiences are associated with mortality.

  • 17. Vadimovna Permyakova, Natalia
    et al.
    Billingsley, Sunnee
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Sociology.
    Men's health and co-residence with older generations in Russia: better or worse?2018In: Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health, ISSN 0143-005X, E-ISSN 1470-2738, Vol. 72, no 3, p. 179-184Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Background Previous studies show contradictory findings on the relationship between health and intergenerational living arrangements (ILAs), which may be due to variation in who selects themselves into and out of ILA. Addressing the selectivity into ILA and the health of the older generation, we assess whether there is a health-protective or health-damaging effect of ILA. We locate our study in the Russian context, where ILA is prevalent and men's health has become a public health issue.

    Methods We apply a fixed-effects logistic regression to self-rated health status of 11546 men aged 25 years or older who participated in at least two waves in the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey from 1994 to 2015. To further isolate the health effect of ILA, we observe only associations after transitioning into or out of ILA.

    Results A transition into co-residence with an unhealthy older generation increases men's odds of reporting poor health (OR=0.64, CI 0.44 to 0.93). A transition out of co-residence with a healthy older generation decreases men's odds of reporting fine health by 63% (OR=0.37, CI 0.28 to 0.50), whereas continuing to live with an unhealthy older generation decreases the odds by half (OR=0.49, CI 0.38 to 0.63).

    Conclusions We reveal a health interlinkage between co-residing generations by finding a detrimental health effect of co-residence with an unhealthy older generation. No longer living with an older generation who was in fine health also negatively affects men's health. Future studies should address heterogeneity related to the health of older generations, unobserved time-constant characteristics of younger generations and selectivity into/out of ILA.

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