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  • 1.
    Ghilagaber, Gebrenegus
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Statistics.
    Munezero, Parfait
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Statistics.
    Bayesian Change-point Modelling of the Effects of 3-points-for-a-win Rule in Football2018Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    We examine the e⁄ects of the 3-point-for-a-win (3pfaw) rule in the football (soccer) world. Data on mean goals and proportions of decided matches from seven leagues around the world form the basis of our analyses. Bayesian change-point analysis shows that the rule had no e⁄ects on the mean goals in any of the leagues but, indeed, had increasing e⁄ects on the proportions of decided matches in most of the leagues studied. This, in turn, implies that while the rule has given teams the incentive to aim at winning matches, such aim was achieved not by scoring excess goals. Instead, it was achieved by scoring enough goals in order to win and, at the same, defending enough in order not to lose.

  • 2.
    Ghilagaber, Gebrenegus
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Statistics.
    Munezero, Parfait
    Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Statistics.
    Bayesian Change-point Modelling of the Effects of 3-points-for-a-win Rule in Football2019In: Journal of Applied Statistics, ISSN 0266-4763, E-ISSN 1360-0532Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We examine the effects of the 3-points-for-a-win (3pfaw) rule in the football world. Data that form the basis of our analyses come from seven leagues around the world (Albania, Brazil, England, Germany, Poland, Romania, and Scotland) and consist of mean goals and proportions of decided matches over a period of about six years before- and about seven years after the introduction of the rule in the respective leagues. Bayesian change-point analyses and Shiryaev-Roberts tests show that the rule had no effects on the mean goals but, indeed, had increasing effects on the proportions of decided matches in most of the leagues studied. This, in turn, implies that while the rule has given teams the incentive to aim at winning matches, such aim was not achieved by scoring excess goals. Instead, it was achieved by scoring enough goals in order to win and, at the same time, defending enough in order not to lose. Our results are in accordance with recent findings on comparing the values of attack and defense - that, in top-level football, not conceding a goal is more valuable than scoring a single goal.

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