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  • 1.
    Adermon, Adrian
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    Gustavsson, Magnus
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    Job Polarization and Task-Biased Technological Change: Evidence from Sweden, 1975–20052015In: Scandinavian Journal of Economics, ISSN 0347-0520, E-ISSN 1467-9442, Vol. 117, no 3, p. 878-917Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper shows that between 1975 and 2005, Sweden exhibited a pattern of job polarization with expansions of the highest and lowest paid jobs compared to middle-wage jobs. The most popular explanation for such a pattern is the hypothesis of ‘task-biased technological change’, where technological progress reduces the demand for routine middle-wage jobs but increases the demand for non-routine jobs located at the tails of the job-wage distribution. Our estimates, however, do not support this explanation for the 1970s and 1980s. Stronger evidence for task biased technological change, albeit not conclusive, is found for the 1990s and 2000s. In particular, there is both a statistically and economically significant growth of non-routine jobs and a decline of routine jobs. Results for wages are, however, mixed; while task-biased technological change cannot explain changes in between-occupation wage differentials, it does have considerable explanatory power for changes in within-occupation wage differentials.

  • 2.
    Adermon, Adrian
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    Gustavsson, Magnus
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    Job Polarization and Task-Biased Technological Change: Sweden, 1975–20052011Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper investigates the connection between the Swedish wage profile of net job creation and Autor, Levy, and Murnane’s (2003) proposed substitutability between routine tasks and technology. We first show that between 1975 and 2005, Sweden exhibited a pattern of job polarization with expansions of the highest and lowest paid jobs compared to middle-wage jobs. We then use cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses of job-specific employment to map out the importance of routine versus nonroutine tasks for these changes. Results are consistent with substitutability between routine tasks and technology as an important explanation for the observed job polarization during the 1990s and 2000s, but not during the 1970s and 1980s. In particular, the overrepresentation of routine tasks in middle-wage jobs can potentially explain 44 percent of the growth of low-wage jobs relative to middle-wage jobs after 1990 but largely lacks explanatory power in earlier years.

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  • 3.
    Dahlberg, Matz
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute for Housing and Urban Research.
    Gustavsson, Magnus
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    Inequality and Crime Separating the Effects of Permanent and Transitory Income2008In: Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, ISSN 0305-9049, E-ISSN 1468-0084, Vol. 70, no 2, p. 129-153Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 4.
    Dahlberg, Matz
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics. Uppsala University, Units outside the University, Office of Labour Market Policy Evaluation.
    Gustavsson, Magnus
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    Inequality and Crime: Separating the Effects of Permanent and Transitory Income2008In: Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, ISSN 0305-9049, E-ISSN 1468-0084, Vol. 70, no 2, p. 129-153Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Earlier studies on income inequality and crime have typically used total income or total earnings. However, it is quite likely that it is changes in permanent rather than in transitory income that affects crime rates. The purpose of this paper is therefore to disentangle the two effects by, first, estimating region-specific inequality in permanent and transitory income and, second, estimating crime equations with the two separate income components as explanatory variables. The results indicate that it is important to separate the two effects; while an increase in the inequality in permanent income yields a positive and significant effect on total crimes and three different property crimes, an increase in the inequality in transitory income has no significant effect. Using a traditional, aggregate, measure of income yields insignificant effects on crime.

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  • 5.
    Dahlberg, Matz
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    Gustavsson, Magnus
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    Inequality and Crime: Separating the Effects of Permanent andTransitory Income2005Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Earlier studies on income inequality and crime have typically used total income or total earnings. However, it is quite likely that it is changes in permanent rather than in transitory income that affects crime rates. The purpose of this paper is therefore to disentangle the two effects by, first, estimating region-specific inequality in permanent and transitory income and, second, estimating crime equations with the two separate income components as explanatory variables. The results indicate that it is important to separate the two effects; while an increase in the inequality in permanent income yields a positive and significant effect on total crimes and three different property crimes, an increase in the inequality in transitory income has no significant effect on any type of crime. Using a traditional, aggregate, measure of income yields mainly insignificant effects on crime.

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  • 6.
    Edin, Per-Anders
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    Gustavsson, Magnus
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    Time Out of Work and Skill Depreciation2008In: Industrial & labor relations review, ISSN 0019-7939, E-ISSN 2162-271X, Vol. 61, no 2, p. 163-180Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper investigates the role of skill depreciation in the relationship between work interruptions and subsequent wages. Using Swedish data from two waves (1994 and 1998) of the International Adult Literacy Survey, which included results of tests gauging respondents' ability to read and make practical use of printed information, the authors are able to analyze changes in individuals' skills as a function of time out of work. They find statistically strong evidence of a negative relationship between work interruptions and skills. The analysis suggests that depreciation of general skills was economically important. A full year of non-employment, for example, was associated with a 5-percentile move down the skill distribution.

  • 7.
    Gustavsson, Magnus
    Uppsala University, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    A Longitudinal Analysis of Within-Education-Group Earnings Inequality2008Report (Other scientific)
    Abstract [en]

    Using a large Swedish longitudinal database for the period 1982–2005, I estimate and compare within-group inequality in persistent and transitory earnings among men with highschool and college degrees. Analyses of inequality over the life cycle reveal that experiencevariance profiles of persistent earnings are very similar across the two education groups and also consistent with standard human capital models of on-the-job training. Transitory earnings shocks display a marked U-shaped variance pattern over the life-cycle for both groups, but are clearly larger for high-school graduates and also account for a larger proportion of their overall variance. Analyses of changes in within-group inequality over time, holding life-cycle effects constant, show that high-school and college graduates have been subject to similar trend growths in both persistent and transitory earnings differentials between 1982 and 2005.

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  • 8.
    Gustavsson, Magnus
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    A New Picture of Swedish Earnings Inequality: Persistent and Transitory Components, 1960–19902008In: The Review of Income and Wealth, ISSN 0034-6586, E-ISSN 1475-4991, Vol. 54, no 3, p. 324-349Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Using a large individual longitudinal database, I decompose the cross-sectional variance of male annual earnings in Sweden between 1960 and 1990 into persistent and transitory components. The persistent variance displays a downward trend during the whole sample period, but with the rate of decline more rapid up until the early 1980s than afterwards. The transitory variance has increased from 1960 until the early 1970s, decreased slightly until the late 1970s, and then risen again during the second half of the 1980s. An important lesson from these results concern the interpretation of the rise in cross-sectional inequality observed after the 1983 breakdown of centralized bargaining in Sweden. While it has often been presumed that this growth reflected increased returns to skills, this study shows that it was in fact due to increased transitory earnings fluctuations.

  • 9.
    Gustavsson, Magnus
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    Is Job Polarization a Recent Phenomenon?Evidence from Sweden, 1950–2013, and a Comparison to the United States2017Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    In this paper, I first show that Swedish job polarization is––contrary to common belief––a long-run phenomenon: the share of middle-wage jobs has declined relative to the highest- and lowest-paid jobs since at least the 1950s. Based on previous results for the US, I then demonstrate that the same major employment shifts across routine and nonroutine jobs drive long-run job polarization in both Sweden and the US. In particular, the shrinking manufacturing sector, with the subsequent decline of routine manual (blue-collar) jobs, stands out as the main explanation for why job polarization is a long-run phenomenon. However, consistent with the hypothesis of routine-biased technological change, both countries display across-the-board declines of routine jobs from around the 1980s, as well as polarizing employment patterns not only between but also within industries. But despite these trend breaks, Sweden actually experienced a stronger job-polarization process—a more pronounced hollowing out of the job-wage distribution—in the pre- than in the post 1980-era.

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  • 10.
    Gustavsson, Magnus
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    Permanent versus Transitory Wage Differentials and the Inequality-Hours Hypothesis2013In: Economics Letters, ISSN 0165-1765, E-ISSN 1873-7374, Vol. 121, no 3, p. 537-541Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper disentangles the effect of inequality in permanent and transitory wages on hours worked by, first, estimating the two components for Swedish industries and, second, using the resulting estimates as explanatory variables in an hours-worked equation. Consistent with Bell and Freeman’s (2001) inequality-hours hypothesis, permanent wage differentials are found to have a positive effect on individuals’ hours of work while transitory wage differentials have no effect. However, the analysis also shows that, in estimated hours-worked equations, inequality in observed wages is potentially a good approximation for inequality in permanent wages.

  • 11.
    Gustavsson, Magnus
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    The 1990s rise in Swedish earnings inequality - persistent or transitory?2007In: Applied Economics, ISSN 0003-6846, E-ISSN 1466-4283, Vol. 39, no 1, p. 25-30Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 12.
    Gustavsson, Magnus
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    The Evolution of the Swedish Wage Structure: New Evidence for 1992–20012006In: Applied Economics Letters, ISSN 1350-4851, E-ISSN 1466-4291, Vol. 13, no 5, p. 36p. 279-286Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 13.
    Gustavsson, Magnus
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    Jordahl, Henrik
    Inequality and trust in Sweden: Some inequalities are more harmful than others2008In: Journal of Public Economics, ISSN 0047-2727, E-ISSN 1879-2316, Vol. 92, no 1-2, p. 348-365Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We present new evidence on the influence of income inequality on generalized trust. Using individual panel data from Swedish counties together with an instrumental variable strategy, we find that differences in disposable income, and especially differences among people in the bottom half of the income distribution, are associated with lower trust. The relationship between income inequality and trust is particularly strong for people with a strong aversion against income differentials. We also find that the proportion of people born in a foreign country is negatively associated with trust.

  • 14.
    Gustavsson, Magnus
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    Jordahl, Henrik
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    Inequality and Trust: Some Inequalities are More Harmful than Others2006Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    We present new evidence on the influence of income inequality on generalized trust. Using individual panel data from Swedish counties together with an instrumental variable strategy we find that differences in disposable income, and especially differences among people in the bottom half of the income distribution, are associated with lower trust. The relationship between income inequality and trust is particularly strong for people with a strong aversion against income differentials. We also find that the proportion of people born in a foreign country is negatively associated with trust.

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  • 15.
    Gustavsson, Magnus
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    Österholm, Pär
    Does the Labor-Income Process Contain a Unit Root? Evidence from Individual-Specific Time Series2014In: Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, ISSN 0165-1889, E-ISSN 1879-1743, Vol. 47, no 5, p. 152-167Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Calibrations of models related to life-cycle behavior of consumption and saving often invoke the important assumption of a unit root in individuals' labor-income process. We for the first time test this assumption using methods for univariate time series. Based on longitudinal register data from 1968 to 2005, we first estimate an autoregressive model for each individual using a method for approximately median-unbiased estimation. We then exploit the resulting distribution of the individual-specific estimates to draw inference about the presence of a unit root. Results indicate that earnings for the representative worker are governed by a process where shocks to earnings have moderate persistence and are both economically and statistically significantly different from having permanent effects. These results question the heavy use of unit-root processes for earnings.

  • 16.
    Gustavsson, Magnus
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    Österholm, Pär
    National Institute of Economic Research.
    Does the Labor-Income Process Contain a Unit Root?: Evidence from Individual-Specific Time Series2010Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Employing econometric methods for univariate time series, this paper investigates the empirical validity of assuming a unit root in individuals’ labor-income processes. Using a Swedish register-based longitudinal dataset which allows us to follow a cohort of workers from 1968 to 2005, we are able to obtain distributions of median unbiased estimates of localto-unity parameters. The results indicate that earnings for the representative worker are governed by a process where shocks to earnings have fairly high persistence but are both economically and statistically significantly different from having permanent effects; that is, the largest autoregressive root is less than unity. These results add to the studies that question the heavy use of unit-root processes for earnings in calibrations of life-cycle models.

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  • 17.
    Gustavsson, Magnus
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    Österholm, Pär
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    Does Unemployment Hysteresis Equal Employment Hysteresis?2006Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper investigates if conclusions regarding labour market hysteresis differ depending on whether employment or unemployment rates are studied. Applying a range of unit-root tests to monthly data from Australia, Austria, Canada, Finland, Sweden, the U.K. and the U.S., we find results for employment rates that contrast those based on unemployment rates. In particular, rather than the mixed evidence for hysteresis found using unemployment rates, employment rates result in unequivocal evidence of hysteresis in Australia, Canada and the U.S.. These findings cast doubt on previous conclusions in the literature.

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  • 18.
    Gustavsson, Magnus
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    Österholm, Pär
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    Does Unemployment Hysteresis Equal Employment Hysteresis?2007In: The Economic Record, ISSN 0013-0249, E-ISSN 1475-4932, Vol. 83, no 261, p. 159-173Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper investigates if conclusions regarding labour market hysteresis differ depending on whether employment or unemployment rates are studied. Applying a range of unit-root tests to monthly data from Australia, Austria, Canada, Finland, Sweden, the U.K. and the U.S., we find results for employment rates that contrast those based on unemployment rates. In particular, rather than the mixed evidence for hysteresis found using unemployment rates, employment rates result in unequivocal evidence of hysteresis in Australia, Canada and the U.S.. These findings cast doubt on previous conclusions in the literature.

  • 19.
    Gustavsson, Magnus
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    Österholm, Pär
    Hysteresis and Non-Linearities in Unemployment Rates2006In: Applied Economics Letters, ISSN 1350-4851, E-ISSN 1466-4291, Vol. 13, no 9, p. 545-548Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 20.
    Gustavsson, Magnus
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    Österholm, Pär
    National Institute of Economic Research, Stockholm.
    Labor-Force Participation Rates and the Informational Value of Unemployment Rates: Evidence from Disaggregated US Data2010Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The informational value of the aggregate US unemployment rate has recently been questioned because of a unit root in the labor-force participation rate; the lack of mean reversion implies that long-run changes in unemployment rates are highly unlikely to reflect long-run changes in joblessness. This paper shows that this critique also extends to unemployment rates for sub-populations, such as prime-aged males.

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  • 21.
    Gustavsson, Magnus
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    Österholm, Pär
    Labor-force participation rates and the informational value of unemployment rates: Evidence from disaggregated US data2012In: Economics Letters, ISSN 0165-1765, E-ISSN 1873-7374, Vol. 116, no 3, p. 408-410Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The informational value of the aggregate US unemployment rate has recently been questioned because of a unit root in the labor-force participation rate; the lack of mean reversion implies that long-run changes in unemployment rates are highly unlikely to reflect long-run changes in joblessness. This note shows that this critique also extends to unemployment rates for sub-populations, such as prime-aged males. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  • 22.
    Gustavsson, Magnus
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    Österholm, Pär
    Mean reversion in the US unemployment rate - evidence from bootstrapped out-of-sample forecasts2011In: Applied Economics Letters, ISSN 1350-4851, E-ISSN 1466-4291, Vol. 18, no 7, p. 643-646Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This article investigates whether the US unemployment rate is best described as a unit-root or mean-reverting process. An out-of-sample forecast exercise is conducted in which the performance of an autoregressive (AR) model with an imposed unit root is compared with that of a mean-reverting AR model. A bootstrap distribution for the relative root mean square forecast error is generated and provides strong support for mean reversion in the US unemployment rate.

  • 23.
    Gustavsson, Magnus
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    Österholm, Pär
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    The Informational Value of Unemployment Statistics: A note on the time series properties of participation rates2006In: Economics Letters, ISSN 0165-1765, E-ISSN 1873-7374, Vol. 92, no 3, p. 428-433Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 24.
    Gustavsson, Magnus
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
    Österholm, Pär
    The presence of unemployment hysteresis in OECD: what can we learn from out-of-sample forecasts?2010In: Empirical Economics, ISSN 0377-7332, E-ISSN 1435-8921, Vol. 38, no 3, p. 779-792Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper investigates the relevance of unemployment hysteresis in seventeen OECD countries. We employ an out-of-sample forecast exercise in which a mean-reverting autoregressive model is compared to an autoregressive model with an imposed unit root. A substantial difference in forecasting performance between the two models is established for many countries, but the results are mixed in their strength. The evidence for unemployment hysteresis in Austria, Finland, Iceland, Israel, Italy, Japan and Sweden is, however, convincing. For no country can unambiguous support for a mean reverting unemployment rate be found.

1 - 24 of 24
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