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  • 1. Antonucci, Alessandro
    et al.
    Karlsson, Alexander
    Sundgren, David
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för data- och systemvetenskap.
    Decision Making with Hierarchical Credal Sets2014Ingår i: 15th International Conference on Information Processing and Management of Uncertainty in Knowledge-Based Systems: proceedings, part III, Heidelberg: Springer, 2014, s. 456-465Konferensbidrag (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    We elaborate on hierarchical credal sets, which are sets of probability mass functions paired with second-order distributions. A new criterion to make decisions based on these models is proposed. This is achieved by sampling from the set of mass functions and considering the Kullback-Leibler divergence from the weighted center of mass of the set. We evaluate this criterion in a simple classification scenario: the results show performance improvements when compared to a credal classifier where the second-order distribution is not taken into account.

  • 2.
    Ekenberg, Love
    et al.
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för data- och systemvetenskap.
    Danielson, Mats
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för data- och systemvetenskap.
    Larsson, Aron
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för data- och systemvetenskap. Mid Sweden University, Sweden.
    Sundgren, David
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för data- och systemvetenskap.
    Second-Order Risk Constraints in Decision Analysis2014Ingår i: Axioms, ISSN 2075-1680, Vol. 3, nr 1, s. 31-45Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Recently, representations and methods aimed at analysing decision problems where probabilities and values (utilities) are associated with distributions over them (second-order representations) have been suggested. In this paper we present an approach to how imprecise information can be modelled by means of second-order distributions and how a risk evaluation process can be elaborated by integrating procedures for numerically imprecise probabilities and utilities. We discuss some shortcomings of the use of the principle of maximising the expected utility and of utility theory in general, and offer remedies by the introduction of supplementary decision rules based on a concept of risk constraints taking advantage of second-order distributions.

  • 3.
    Guerrero Rázuri, Javier Francisco
    et al.
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för data- och systemvetenskap.
    Larsson, Aron
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för data- och systemvetenskap.
    Sundgren, David
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för data- och systemvetenskap.
    Bonet, Isis
    Moran, Antonio
    Recognition of emotions by the emotional feedback through behavioral human poses2015Ingår i: International Journal of Computer Science Issues, ISSN 1694-0784, E-ISSN 1694-0814, Vol. 12, nr 1, s. 7-17Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    The sensory perceptions from humans are intertwined channels,which assemble diverse data in order to decrypt emotionalinformation. Just by associations, humans can mix emotionalinformation, i.e. emotion detection through facial expressionscriteria, emotional speech, and the challenging field of emotionalbody language over the body poses and motion. In this work, wepresent an approach that can predict six basic universal emotionscollected by responses linked to human body poses, from acomputational perspective. The emotional outputs could be fedas inputs to a synthetic socially skilled agent capable ofinteraction, in the context of socially intelligent systems. Themethodology uses a classification technique of information fromsix images extracted from a video, entirely developed using themotion sensing input device of Xbox 360 by Microsoft. We aretaking into account that the emotional body language containsadvantageous information about the emotional state of humans,especially when bodily reaction brings about consciousemotional experiences. The body parts are windows that showemotions and they would be particularly suitable to decodingaffective states. The group of extracted images is merged in oneimage with all the relevant information. The recovered image willserve as input to the classifiers. The analysis of images fromhuman body poses makes it possible to obtain relevantinformation through the combination of proper data in the sameimage. It is shown by experimental results that the SVM candetect emotion with good accuracy compared to other classifiers.

  • 4.
    Guerrero Rázuri, Javier Francisco
    et al.
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för data- och systemvetenskap.
    Moran Cardenas, Antonio
    Rahmani, Rahim
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för data- och systemvetenskap.
    Sundgren, David
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för data- och systemvetenskap.
    Mizuuchi, Ikuo
    Integration of Artificial Neural Networks and Linear Systems for the Output Feedback Control of Nonlinear Vibration Systems2014Ingår i: CCC 2014, the 33rd Chinese Control Conference, IEEE Press, 2014, s. 1850-1855Konferensbidrag (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper analyzes the integration of neural networks and linear systems for the identification, state estimation and output feedback control of weakly nonlinear systems. Considering previous knowledge about the system given by approximated linear state-space models, linear observers and linear controllers, training algorithms for the neuro-identification, state neuro-estimation and output feedback neuro-control were derived considering the dynamics of the nonlinear system. It was found that the integrated linear-neuro model can identify the dynamics of the system much more accurately than a purely linear model or a purely neuro model. It was also found that the state estimation and vibration isolation performance of the system with integrated linear-neuro output feedback control is better than the system with linear control or neuro-control.

  • 5.
    Guerrero Rázuri, Javier
    et al.
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för data- och systemvetenskap.
    Sundgren, David
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för data- och systemvetenskap.
    Rahmani, Rahim
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för data- och systemvetenskap.
    Larsson, Aron
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för data- och systemvetenskap.
    Effect of emotional feedback in a decision-making system for an autonomous agent2014Ingår i: Advances in Artificial Intelligence - IBERAMIA 2014: Proceedings / [ed] Ana L.C. Bazzan, Karim Pichara, Springer, 2014, s. 613-624Konferensbidrag (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    The point of view of Isaac Asimov is unlikely in a close future, but machines that develop tasks in a sensible manner are already a fact. In light of this remark, recent research tries to understand the requirements and design options that imply providing an autonomous agent with means for detecting emotions. If we think about of exporting this model to machines, it is possible that they become capable to evolve emotionally according to such models and would take part in the society more or less cooperatively, according to the perceived emotional state. The main purpose of this research is the implementation of a decision model affected by emotional feedback in a cognitive robotic assistant that can capture information about the world around it. The robot will use multi-modal communication to assist the societal participation of persons deprived of conventional modes of communication. The aim is a machine that can predict what the user will do next and be ready to give the best possible assistance, taking in account the emotional factor. The results indicate the benefits and importance of emotional feedback in the closed loop human-robot interaction framework. Cognitive agents are shown to be capable of adapting to emotional information from humans.

  • 6.
    Ibrahim, Osama
    et al.
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för data- och systemvetenskap.
    Larsson, Aron
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för data- och systemvetenskap.
    Sundgren, David
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för data- och systemvetenskap.
    A Causal Mapping Simulation for Scenario Planning and Impact Assessment in Public Policy Problems: the Case of EU 2030 Climate and Energy Framework2014Ingår i: Proceedings of the 5th. World Congress on Social Simulation: WCSS 2014 / [ed] Edward MacKerrow, Sao Paulo: WCSS , 2014, s. 284-296Konferensbidrag (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    The ultimate objective of studying, modeling and analyzing policy problems is to incorporate the newest management technologies in the public policy decision-making in a meaningful and practically feasible way that adds significant value to the process. Simulation techniques can support the policy decision process by allowing empirical evaluation of the system dynamics present in the policy situation at hand. This paper presents a decision support simulation model for the European Union (EU) Climate and Energy targets 2030 as a case study of public policy decision making on the EU level. The simulation model is based on the problem structuring or framing by derivation of a system dynamics model from verbal descriptions of the problem, the graphical representation and analysis of change scenarios using the ‘Causal Mapping and Situation Formulation’ method. This approach supports the analysis of qualitative and quantitative information in order to facilitate both the conceptualization and formulation stages of the system modeling process. The resulting model, which is simply a topology of quantified causal dependencies among the problem key variables, can be used to simulate the transfer of change. The aim of simulation herein is to apply cognitive strategic thinking and scenario-based planning in a public policy problem situation in order to design alternative options and provide foresight or ex-ante impact assessment in terms of economic, social, environmental and other impacts.

  • 7.
    Ibrahim, Osama
    et al.
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för data- och systemvetenskap.
    Sundgren, David
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för data- och systemvetenskap.
    Larsson, Aron
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för data- och systemvetenskap.
    An Integrated Decision support System for Strategic Planning in Higher Education2014Ingår i: Group Decision and Negotiation (GDN): a process-oriented view: joint INFORMS-GDN and EWG-DSS International Conference, GDN 2014, Toulouse, France, June 10-13, 2014, Proceedings / [ed] Pascale Zaraté, Gregory E. Kersten, Jorge E. Hernández, Heidelberg: Springer, 2014, s. 237-245Konferensbidrag (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [sv]

    Group Decision and Negotiation. A Process-Oriented View Proceedings Series: Lecture Notes in Business Information Processing, Vol. 180 Zaraté, Pascale; Kersten, Gregory E.; Hernández, Jorge E. (Eds.) 2014, XIV, 279 p. 64 illus. Available Formats:

  • 8.
    Kalinina, Maria
    et al.
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för data- och systemvetenskap.
    Larsson, Aron
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för data- och systemvetenskap.
    Sundgren, David
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för data- och systemvetenskap.
    On the compatibility of uncertainty formalisms in multi-objective optimization2014Ingår i: DSS 2.0: supporting decision making with new technologies / [ed] Gloria Phillips-Wren, Sven Carlsson, Ana Respício, Patrick Brézillon, Amsterdam: IOS Press, 2014, s. 48-58Konferensbidrag (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Multi-objective optimization is a way to manage multiple objectives in analytical decision support systems. However, for real-life problems, different types of uncertainty often become prominent when defining the model. In this paper, we analyze these different types of uncertainties and suggest a suitable typology for a decision process based upon multi-objective optimization models. Uncertainty analysis can be performed based on the proposed typology; therefore, this analysis provides the necessary support for a decision maker in the identification the crucial uncertainty in the decision process.

  • 9.
    Kalinina, Maria
    et al.
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för data- och systemvetenskap.
    Sundgren, David
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för data- och systemvetenskap.
    Post Optimality Analysis of Pareto Optimal Set Through Weights Robustness2014Ingår i: IEEE International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management, IEEE Computer Society , 2014, s. 34-38Konferensbidrag (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Traditional multi-objective optimization attempts to find Pareto optimal solutions. Since a Pareto optimal set can be huge, the problem of selecting one or few solutions occurs. Post optimality analysis in multi-objective optimization requires incorporation of decision makers' preferences in the form of weights. In this paper the concept of robustness with regards to weights is introduced. The different types of weights robustness show how sensitive a solution is to variation in weights' coefficients. An approach for analysis of Pareto optimal sets through weights robustness is then devised. The suggested approach can be of special interest in the presence of conflicting preferences among decision makers or when preference information is unavailable. In conclusion, managerial usage it in the different strategies for negotiation provides possibility to thoroughly weigh all alternatives before settling on an agreement.

  • 10. Karlsson, Alexander
    et al.
    Sundgren, David
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för data- och systemvetenskap.
    Second-Order Credal Combination of Evidence2013Ingår i: Proceedings of the Eighth International Symposium on Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications / [ed] Fabio Cozman et al., Society for Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications , 2013, s. 169-178Konferensbidrag (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    We utilize second-order probability distributions for modeling second-order information over imprecise evidence in the form of credal sets. We generalize the Dirichlet distribution to a shifted version, denoted the S-Dirichlet, which allows one to restrict the support of the distribution by lower bounds. Based on the S-Dirichlet distribution, we present a simple combination schema denoted as second-order credal combination (SOCC), which takes second-order probability into account. The combination schema is based on a set of particles, sampled from the operands, and a set of weights that are obtained through the S-Dirichlet distribution. We show by examples that the second-order probability distribution over the imprecise joint evidence can be remarkably concentrated and hence that the credal combination operator can significantly overestimate the imprecision.

  • 11. Moran Cardenas, Antonio
    et al.
    Guerrero Rázuri, Javier Francisco
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för data- och systemvetenskap.
    Sundgren, David
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för data- och systemvetenskap.
    Rahmani, Rahim
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för data- och systemvetenskap.
    Autonomous Motion of Mobile Robot Using Fuzzy-Neural Networks2013Konferensbidrag (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper analyzes the performance and practical implementation of fuzzy-neural networks for the autonomous motion of mobile robots. The designed fuzzy-neural controller is a refined version of a conventional fuzzy controller, and was trained to optimize a given cost function minimizing positioning error. It was found that the mobile robot with fuzzy-neural controller presents good positioning and tracking performance for different types of desired trajectories. It was verified by computer simulation as well as experimentally using a laboratory-scale car-like robot model.

  • 12. Moran Cardenas, Antonio
    et al.
    Rázuri, Javier G.
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för data- och systemvetenskap.
    Bonet, Isis
    Rahmani, Rahim
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för data- och systemvetenskap.
    Sundgren, David
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för data- och systemvetenskap.
    Design of High Accuracy Tracking Systems with H Infinite Preview Control2014Ingår i: POLIBITS Research Journal on Computer Science and Computer Engineering With Applications, ISSN 1870-9044, Vol. 50, s. 21-28Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Positioning and tracking control systems are an important component of autonomous robot applications. This paper presents the design method of tracking control systems based on H infinite preview control where the present and future desired positions of the robot are used to determine the control actions to be applied so that the robot describes the desired trajectory as close as possible. The performance improvements achieved with H infinite preview control have been examined in the frequency and time domains for different types of reference signals when applied to a one-dimensional positioning system. It was found that preview control improves the tracking performance by improving the phase response of the tracking system.

  • 13.
    Rázuri, Javier G.
    et al.
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för data- och systemvetenskap.
    Sundgren, David
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för data- och systemvetenskap.
    Rahmani, Rahim
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för data- och systemvetenskap.
    Moran, Antonio
    Bonet, Isis
    Larsson, Aron
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för data- och systemvetenskap.
    Speech emotion recognition in emotional feedbackfor Human-Robot Interaction2015Ingår i: International Journal of Advanced Research in Artificial Intelligence (IJARAI), ISSN 2165-4050, E-ISSN 2165-4069, Vol. 4, nr 2, s. 20-27Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    For robots to plan their actions autonomously and interact with people, recognizing human emotions is crucial. For most humans nonverbal cues such as pitch, loudness, spectrum, speech rate are efficient carriers of emotions. The features of the sound of a spoken voice probably contains crucial information on the emotional state of the speaker, within this framework, a machine might use such properties of sound to recognize emotions. This work evaluated six different kinds of classifiers to predict six basic universal emotions from non-verbal features of human speech. The classification techniques used information from six audio files extracted from the eNTERFACE05 audio-visual emotion database. The information gain from a decision tree was also used in order to choose the most significant speech features, from a set of acoustic features commonly extracted in emotion analysis. The classifiers were evaluated with the proposed features and the features selected by the decision tree. With this feature selection could be observed that each one of compared classifiers increased the global accuracy and the recall. The best performance was obtained with Support Vector Machine and bayesNet.

  • 14.
    Rázuri, Javier G.
    et al.
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för data- och systemvetenskap.
    Sundgren, David
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för data- och systemvetenskap.
    Rahmani, Rahim
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för data- och systemvetenskap.
    Moran Cardenas, Antonio
    Automatic Emotion Recognition through Facial Expression Analysis in Merged Images Based on an Artificial Neural Network2013Ingår i: 2013 12th Mexican International Conference on Artificial Intelligence (MICAI): Proceedings, IEEE Computer Society, 2013, s. 85-96Konferensbidrag (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper focuses on a system of recognizing human’s emotion from a detected human’s face. The analyzed information is conveyed by the regions of the eye and the mouth into a merged new image in various facial expressions pertaining to six universal basic facial emotions. The output information obtained could be fed as an input to a machine capable to interact with social skills, in the context of building socially intelligent systems. The methodology uses a classification technique of information into a new fused image which is composed of two blocks integrated by the area of the eyes and mouth, very sensitive areas to changes human’s expression and that are particularly relevant for the decoding of emotional expressions. Finally we use the merged image as an input to a feed-forward neural network trained by back-propagation. Such analysis of merged images makes it possible, obtain relevant information through the combination of proper data in the same image and reduce the training set time while preserved classification rate. It is shown by experimental results that the proposed algorithm can detect emotion with good accuracy.

  • 15.
    Sundgren, David
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för data- och systemvetenskap.
    The Apparent Arbitrariness of Second-Order Probability Distributions2011Doktorsavhandling, sammanläggning (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
    Abstract [sv]

    Adekvat representation av osäkra eller imprecisa sannolikheter är ett avgörande och icke-trivialt problem i beslutsanalys. I denna avhandling diskuteras förtjänsterna hos andra ordningens sannolikheter som en modell för imprecisa sannolikeheter.

    Att imprecisa sannolikheter kan representeras med andra ordningens sannolikheter är välkänt, men hittills har särskilda andra ordningens föredelningar inte ägnats någon större uppmärksamhet. Då olika sannolikhetsfördelningar har olika egenskaper kräver studiet av önskvärda egenskaper hos modeller för imprecisa sannolikheter en granskning av specifika andra ordningens fördelningar.

    Den godtycklighet som tycks vidhäfta valet av andra ordningens fördelning är en ofta förekommande invändning mot andra ordingens sannolikhetsfördelningar. Vi finner vissa belägg för at strukturen hos andra ordningens fördelningar är en omständighet som hindrar godtyckligt val av fördelningar. I synnerhet undersöks egenskaper hos två andra ordningens fördelningar; den likformiga simultana fördelningen och en variant av Dirichletfördelningen med egenskapen att vara lika med den normaliserade produkten av sina egna marginalfördelningar.

    Den likformiga simultana fördelningen visas i avhandligen ha marginalfördelningar som motsäger den förmodat icke-informativa strukturen hos en likformig fördelning. Å andra sidan gäller för den modifierade Dirichletfördelningen som upptäckts här att informationsinnehållet är jämnt fördelat mellan den simultana fördelningen och marginalfördelningarna; den totala korrelationen mellan variablerna är minimal.

    Det hävdas också i avhandlingen att diskreta sannolikhetsfördelningar i motsats till de kontinuerliga fördelningar som nämnts ovan har fördelen att utgöra en naturlig miljö för uppdatering av undre gränser och dessutom tillåta en mer effektiv beräkning av förväntad nytta.

  • 16.
    Sundgren, David
    et al.
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för data- och systemvetenskap.
    Karlsson, Alexander
    On Dependence in Second-Order Probability2012Ingår i: Scalable Uncertainty Management: 6th International Conference, SUM 2012, Proceedings / [ed] Eyke Hüllermeier, Sebastian Link, Thomas Fober and Bernhard Seeger, Berlin/Heidelberg: Springer Berlin/Heidelberg, 2012, s. 379-391Konferensbidrag (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    We present a notion, relative independence, that models independence in relation to a predicate.  The intuition is to capture the notion of a minimum of dependencies among variables with respect to the predicate. We prove that relative independence coincides with conditional independence only in a trivial case. For use in second-order probability, we let the predicate express first-order probability, i.e. that the probability variables must sum to one in order to restrict dependency to the necessary relation between probabilities of exhaustive and mutually exclusive events. We then show examples of Dirichlet distributions that do and do not have the property of relative independence.  These distributions are compared with respect to the impact of further dependencies, apart from those imposed by the predicate.

  • 17.
    Sundgren, David
    et al.
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för data- och systemvetenskap.
    Karlsson, Alexander
    Uncertainty Levels of Second-Order Probability2013Ingår i: POLIBITS Research Journal on Computer Science and Computer Engineering With Applications, ISSN 1870-9044, nr 48, s. 5-11Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Since second-order probability distributions assign probabilities to probabilities there is uncertainty on two levels. Although different types of uncertainty have been distinguished before and corresponding measures suggested, the distinction made here between first- and second-order levels of uncertainty has not been considered before. In this paper previously existing measures are considered from the perspective of first- and second-order uncertainty and new measures are introduced. We conclude that the concepts of uncertainty and informativeness needs to be qualified if used in a second-order probability context and suggest that from a certain point of view information can not be minimized, just shifted from one level to another.

  • 18.
    Talantsev, Anton
    et al.
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för data- och systemvetenskap.
    Larsson, Aron
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för data- och systemvetenskap.
    Kivunike, Florence Nameere
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för data- och systemvetenskap.
    Sundgren, David
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för data- och systemvetenskap.
    Quantitative scenario-based assessment of contextual factors for ICT4D projects: design and implementation in a web based tool2014Ingår i: New perspectives in information systems and technologies, Volume 1 / [ed] Álvaro Rocha, Ana Maria Correia, Felix . B Tan, Karl A. Stroetmann, Springer, 2014, nr 1, s. 477-490Kapitel i bok, del av antologi (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    The success of a development intervention is primarily defined by its longer-term results. Information and Communication Technology for Development (ICT4D) projects are no exception. In particular, the external context in which such projects are to be deployed plays a crucial role for achieving better development results. Thus, an analysis of contextual factors is essential for decision-makers at the project proposal screening and evaluation. Guided by the results-based management framework, a tool for influence assessment of contextual factors is designed and presented in this paper. The tool comprises a suggested model for common ICT4D contextual factors and a complementing method for their assessment. The method employs a scenario- based judgments elicitation process for data extraction together with Monte- Carlo simulation for data processing and aggregation. While the tool is not intended for comprehensive and deep analysis, the underlying streamlined process along with the easy to interpret assessment results arguably ensure further wide adoption.

  • 19.
    Talantsev, Anton
    et al.
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för data- och systemvetenskap.
    Sundgren, David
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för data- och systemvetenskap.
    Evaluating strategic fit of projects: a fuzzy linguistic approach2013Ingår i: Group Decision and Negotiation (GND) 2013: International Conference. Proceedings / [ed] Bilyana Martinovski, Stockholm: Department of Computer and Systems Sciences, Stockholm University , 2013, s. 449-461Konferensbidrag (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Strategic fit is a crucial criterion for screening strategically important projects. However, this aspect is vague and unquantifiable to employ with conventional quantitative analysis. This study suggests a method to assess strategic fit as relevance of a project to a set of organisation strategic goals in the context of multi-criteria project evaluation. The assessment is done subjectively by means of linguistic values, which are translated into numerical ones by employing a fuzzy logic.

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