This chapter examines current policy drivers of battery electric vehicles (EVs) and plug-in hybrid EVs, the current and anticipated impacts on carbon emissions, as well as what potential role policy can play in enhancing the innovation system and market development around such vehicles in the future. We start with a policy review of key targets in the Nordic countries and the EU, up to 2030, and discuss to what extent they are consistent with industry and expert estimates of how the systems can grow. On the basis of this, the second part elaborates two simple scenarios of EV development in the EU: one breakthrough expansion scenario and one incremental expansion scenario. Building on that is an analysis of the climate impacts of the two scenarios, given different assumptions relating to, for example, electricity production as well as EV penetration in the fleet. The third part examines what policy drivers might be needed to enable the breakthrough scenario, using a technological innovation systems perspective to describe the needed processes, drivers and developments.

This report examines policy drivers of electric vehicles (EVs), and what potential role policy can play in enhancing the innovation and market development of EVs. We start with a policy review of key targets in the Nordic countries and the EU, up to 2030, and discuss to what extent they are consistent with industry, government and expert estimates of how the EV innovation systems can grow. On the basis of this, the second part examines what policy drivers might be needed to enable a breakthrough scenario, using a technological innovation systems (TIS) perspective to describe the needed processes, drivers and developments in policy and technology.

It is essential to take a longer term view if sustainable mobility is to become a reality. This paper takes a perspective to 2020 and constructs Images of the future which conform to the principles of sustainable mobility. Set at the EU level, clear environmental, regional development and efficiency targets are set, within which strategies are developed, based on different combinations of technological innovation and the decoupling of economic growth from transport growth. The external political situation is taken as given with either a move towards greater co-operation (and extension) or towards greater fragmentation (and regionalisaization) in Europe. The three Images of the future (2020) demonstrate that challenging targets for sustainable mobility can be achieved through a range of different policy actions within the transport sector and more widely. Immediate action is required and even more difficult choices will have to be made in the EU 15, if large-scale extension of the EU takes place. Improvements in vehicle technology alone will not achieve the targets. More fundamental changes have to take place in the way in which people make travel choices and in the means by which freight is transported. All of these measures must involve less travel, more efficient and cleaner travel modes.

The overall objective of the Swedish transport policy is to ensure the economically efficient and sustainable provision of transport services for people and business throughout the country. More specifically, the transport sector shall, among other things, contribute to the achievement of environmental quality objectives in which the development of the transport system plays an important role in the achievement of the objectives. The aim of this study is to analyse if current transport planning supports this policy. This is done by analysing two recent cases: the National Infrastructure Plan 2010-2021, and the planning of Bypass Stockholm, a major road investment. Our results show that the plans are in conflict with several of the environmental quality objectives. Another interesting aspect of the planning processes is that the long-term climate goals are not included in the planning processes, neither as a clear goal nor as factor that will influence future transport systems. In this way, the longterm sustainability aspects are not present in the planning. We conclude that the two cases do not contribute to a sustainable transport system. Thus, several changes must be made in the processes, including putting up clear targets for emissions. Also, the methodology for the environmental assessments needs to be further developed and discussed.

The overall objective of the Swedish transport policy is to ensure the economically efficient and sustainable provision of transport services for people and business throughout the country. More specifically the transport sector shall contribute to the achievement of environmental quality objectives where the development of the transport system plays an important role in the achievement of the objectives. The aim of this study is to analyse if current transport planning supports this policy. This is done by analyzing two recent cases: the national infrastructure plan 2010-2021 and the planning of Bypass Stockholm, a major road investment. Our results show that the plans are in conflict with several of the environmental quality objectives. Another interesting aspect of the planning processes is that the long-term climate goals are not included in the planning processes, neither as a clear goal nor as factor which will influence the future transport system. In this way the long-term sustainability aspects are not present in the planning. We conclude that the two cases do not contribute to a sustainable transport system. Thus, several changes must be made in the processes, including putting up clear targets for emissions.

I en artikel i Expressen den 24 mars hyllar Carl Bildt det ökade resandet. Han skriver om dess fördelar. De är vi överens om.

Det är när han skriver om resandets nackdelar som det blir konstigt.

Air travel accounts for a major share of individual greenhouse gas emissions, particularly for people in high-income countries. Until recently, few have reduced flying because of climate concerns, but currently, a movement for staying on the ground is rising. Sweden has been a focal point for this movement, particularly during 2018-2019, when a flight tax was introduced, and air travel reduction was intensely discussed in the media. We performed semi-structured interviews with Swedish residents, focusing primarily on individuals who have reduced flying because of its climate impact. We explore how such individual transformation of air travel behavior comes about, and the phases and components of this process. Applying a framework of sustainability transformation, we identify incentives and barriers in personal and political spheres. We show that internalized knowledge about climate change and the impact of air travel is crucial for instigating behavioral change. Awareness evokes negative emotions leading to a personal tipping point where a decision to reduce or quit flying is made. However, the process is often counteracted by both personal values and political structures promoting air travel. Even individuals with a strong drive to reduce flying feel trapped in social practices, norms and infrastructures. Hence, we argue that personal and political spheres interact complexly and to reduce flying at larger scales, interventions are needed across spheres, e.g., change of norms, effective policy instruments and better alternatives to air travel.

Parking Benefit Districts (PBDs) are a parking measure where revenues from on-street parking charges are returned to the area where they are charged, and stakeholders in the area participate in prioritizing how the revenues are to be spent. The purpose of this article is to analyse whether and how a PBD programme can be transferred to a European context, and whether it can contribute to reduced car dependency. The first part of the article provides an overview of some salient features of PBD programmes in the USA through a literature survey. This is followed by results from interviews and from a focus group with civil servants and a deputy mayor in Stockholm. The results are used to analyse the conditions for implementing a PBD programme in Stockholm, as well as for analysing how such a programme can be designed to reduce car dependency. A main conclusion is that there are no legal barriers that render a PBD programme impossible in Stockholm, even though there are some legal restrictions. We also conclude that a PBD programme might contribute to reduced car dependency in two different ways, either by increasing acceptance for parking charges or by improving the alternatives to private cars. There seem to be several aspects in a PBD programme that can contribute to increased acceptance for parking charges. However, there is no tradition of working with these principles in Sweden and the programme's redistributional effects need to be taken into account when designing the programme.

Current European parking policies do not seem to steer towards a future where urban transport meets the climate goals. Prominent in current housing and parking policies are the so-called minimum parking standards. Recent research has shown that they contribute to increased car use and consequently to higher CO2 emissions. This is because they contribute to urban sprawl, extensive land use, increased housing and infrastructure construction costs, and that they restrict the number of flats per urban land unit. Other recent research shows that the construction of underground garages causes considerable CO2 emissions. This paper is based on previous research on the development of the transport sector to be in line with climate targets (i.e., the Paris Agreement). It intends to fill a research gap regarding how parking management can be designed to be consistent with these targets. Through a future study approach with Stockholm as a case example, this paper illustrates a policy shift in parking policies considered to be in line with national climate targets. The article presents concrete indicators to quantify the scope of change needed (e.g., removing 60,000 residential parking spaces and providing vehicle sharing with 7,500 cars and at least 7,500 bikes). The focus shift goes from providing physical parking spaces to providing satisfactory mobility and accessibility. We outline a pathway towards a future scenario of parking and mobility in Stockholm, with a combination of mobility services, parking restrictions (e.g., cap on parking spaces, removal of minimum parking standards), and citizen participation. The pathway is also analysed regarding equity, feasibility, and acceptance.

Aviation constitutes about 2.5% of all energy-related CO2 emissions and in addition there are non-CO2 effects. In 2016, the ICAO decided to implement a Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA) and in 2017 the EU decided on faster emission reductions in its Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), which since 2012 includes the aviation sector. The effects of these policies on the expected development of air travel emissions from 2017 to 2030 have been analyzed. For the sample country Sweden, the analysis shows that when emissions reductions in other sectors are attributed to the aviation sector as a result of the EU ETS and CORSIA, carbon emissions are expected to reduce by -0.8% per year (however if non-CO2 emissions are included in the analysis, then emissions will increase). This is much less than what is needed to achieve the 2 degrees C target. Our analysis of potential national aviation policy instruments shows that there are legally feasible options that could mitigate emissions in addition to the EU ETS and CORSIA. Distance-based air passenger taxes are common among EU Member States and through increased ticket prices these taxes can reduce demand for air travel and thus reduce emissions. Tax on jet fuel is an option for domestic aviation and for international aviation if bilateral agreements are concluded. A quota obligation for biofuels is a third option.

Global civil aviation accounts for 4-5% of total greenhouse gas emissions and these emissions are increasing. In the absence of sufficiently effective global climate instruments, national instruments might be considered as a complement, in which case some way of allocating emissions from international air travel between countries is needed. The purpose of this paper is to develop an accounting method that reflects one country's greenhouse gas emissions from international air travel, and to apply this methodology to Sweden. The new methodology consists of three parts: the number of international air trips made by the country's residents; the average distance of these trips; and the greenhouse gas emissions per passenger km. For Sweden, data for 1990 to 2014 show an increase in the number of trips by Sweden's population of 3.6% per year, resulting in, on average, one international journey (round trip 5800 km) per capita in 2014. The average distance to the final destination has increased only marginally due to simultaneous growth in both long and short trips. However, global average greenhouse gas emissions per passenger km have decreased by 1.9% per year between 1990 and 2014. Because the increase in the number of their trips has outweighed the decrease in emissions per km, the total emissions from Swedish residents' international air travel have increased by 61% between 1990 and 2014. The total emissions from Swedish residents' air travel, including both CO2 and non-CO2-effects, were 11 Mt CO2 equivalents in 2014, which is the same level as the emissions from Swedish car traffic. This type of reliable data is important when designing policies and for getting public support for new policies.

By 2045, Sweden is to have zero net emissions of greenhouse gases. To reach this goal, stakeholders involved in planning and construction of Swedish transport infrastructure aim to half their climate impact by 2030. Planning for emission reduction measures require network level studies showing environmental impacts of the infrastructure network. Previous studies do not allow assessment of current hotspots in the infrastructure network, which limits their relevance for decision-support in this question. The aim of this paper is to assess the current annual climate impact and primary energy use of Swedish transport infrastructure by using a methodological approach based on life cycle assessment. The scope includes new construction and management (operation, maintenance, and reinvestment) of existing roads, railways, airports, ports, and fairway channels. The annual climate impact was estimated to 2.8 million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalents and the annual primary energy use was estimated to 27 terawatt hours. Mainly road and rail infrastructure contributed to these impacts. Environmental hotspots of the infrastructure network were management of the infrastructure stock (particularly reinvestment of road and rail infrastructure) and material production (particularly production of asphalt, steel, and concrete). If climate targets are to be met, these areas are particularly important to address. Additional research on impacts of small construction measures, the size of biogenic carbon emissions (in standing biomass as well as soil carbon), and the use and impacts of asphalt for road construction and management would further increase the understanding of impacts related to Swedish transport infrastructure at the network level.

By 2045, Sweden is to have zero net emissions of greenhouse gases, implying that also the transport sector must reduce its emissions to nearly zero by that year. Planning for emission reduction measures require network level studies showing environmental impacts of the transport network. Previous studies do not allow assessment of current hotspots in the infrastructure network, which limits their relevance for decision-support in this question. The aim of this paper is to assess the current annual climate impact and primary energy use of Swedish transport infrastructure by using a methodological approach based on life cycle assessment. The scope includes new construction and management of roads, railways, airports, ports, and fairway channels. The climate impact was estimated to 3 million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalents and the primary energy use was estimated to 27 terawatt hours. Mainly road and rail infrastructure contributed to these impacts. The environmental hotspots in the infrastructure network were identified as management of the infrastructure stock (particularly reinvestment of road and rail infrastructure) and material production (particularly production of asphalt, steel, and concrete). Planners should work systematically with emission and energy efficiency in these areas to reduce impacts of Swedish transport infrastructure. Additional research on impacts of small construction measures, the size of biogenic carbon emissions (in standing biomass as well as soil carbon), and the use and impacts of asphalt used in road construction and management would further increase the understanding of Swedish transport infrastructure at the network level.

Transport is a main contributor to climate change and significant emission reduction measures are required to reach climate targets. This paper identifies hotspots in the Swedish transport system, which is important for the identification of such emission reduction measures. Results complements Swedish official statistics and previous network level studies by applying a methodological approach that allows for the assessment of annual impacts and identification of environmental hotspots. The aim is to estimate the annual direct and indirect climate impact and primary energy use of the Swedish transport system, including national and international passenger travel, domestic freight transport, and import of goods. The scope includes infrastructure, vehicles, and fuels for freight and passenger traffic by road, rail, air, and sea in 2015. The annual climate impact and primary energy use was estimated to be 46 million tonnes CO2 equivalents and 196 TWh, respectively. Vehicle operation – especially road passenger traffic and international aviation – contributed the most to impacts. However, the relative importance of vehicle operation varies for the individual transport modes. Of the indirect aspects, manufacturing and maintenance of road vehicles contributed the most. Results provide a baseline that can be used in scenario analyses of the transport system as well as a basis for reasoning about the total system effects of policy measures and opportunities for Swedish actors to influence impacts of Swedish consumption. Further research involves filling data gaps identified in this paper, and continued development and improvement of data and models.

Although rebound effects are well-known as a phenomenon, the question of how to avoid and minimize rebound effects have largely been ignored in practical policy. In this study, five concrete cases of measures and policies in the transport sector illustrate primary effects, rebound effects and possible strategies to avoid or minimize rebound effects. The cases were explored and analyzed in a series of workshops involving in total 15 researchers and societal actors. In addition to the net impact of primary and rebound effects, factors such as the time horizon and the reversibility of the effect may also be important for the evaluation of measures and policies. To detect and avoid rebound effects - and to assess the effectiveness of a policy - a system perspective is needed rather than a narrow sector focus. When designing measures, broad system-wide strategies or specific measures addressing particularly emission-intensive activities tend to be most effective for avoiding rebound.

Inclusion of Life Cycle Assessment during the planning of transport infrastructure is rarely used in practice, but is becoming a widely discussed issue nowadays. This study sought to improve understanding of the life cycle energy use and greenhouse gas emissions of transport infrastructure, using the example of a road tunnel. Two levels of analysis were used: 1) detailed data inventory for the construction of rock tunnels; and 2) screening assessment for the life cycle phases of the whole tunnel infrastructure (including its main parts: concrete and rock tunnels). The first level of analysis showed that production of materials (i.e. concrete and asphalt) made the largest contribution to Cumulative Energy Demand and Global Warming Potential. The second level of analysis indicated that concrete tunnels had much higher Cumulative Energy Demand and Global Warming Potential per lane-metre than rock tunnels. Moreover, the operational phase of the tunnel was found to have the highest share of energy use and greenhouse gas emissions throughout the tunnel’s life cycle.

In the transport policy domain, as in other highly-contested spheres of public policy, it is commonplace for certain policy measures to emerge as promising only to then remain unimplemented. Road pricing is one example of a theoretically well-developed transport policy measure that has proven notoriously difficult to decide and implement. There are however lessons to learn from practice on how to manage barriers to policy formation and implementation also within this field. Drawing on the congestion charging schemes implemented in London in 2003 and Stockholm in 2006, and the Swiss Heavy Vehicle Fee scheme implemented in 2001, this paper identifies a selection of strategies which appear to have supported the policymakers' capacity to implement effective road pricing schemes. Together, these three examples offer a sound empirical basis from which to infer a set of strategies for the formulation and implementation of politically-contentious road pricing packages addressing issues of measure combination, flexibility, legitimacy, communication, timing and organisational dynamics. While acknowledging the primacy of broader external and contextual issues, the conclusion is that taking inspiration from the strategies identified in this paper may increase the likelihood of successful policy package processes.

International travel is increasing rapidly, but emissions from this segment are not included in the Kyoto Protocol and seldom in national statistics. The aim of this paper is to estimate the volume of international travel by the Swedish population, and the emissions of greenhouse gas associated with that travel. Data used are from a national travel survey for 2006 including 27,000 telephone interviews. It is shown that international travel by the Swedish population amounted to 37 billion passenger-km, or 4100 km per capita in 2006. This corresponds to 22.5% of total travel by Swedes, an increase from 16.6% in 1994. Emissions of greenhouse gases from international travel by the Swedish population in 2006 amounted to 8.5 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalents, of which 92% stems from air travel. This is approx. 11% of total Swedish emissions including international transport. It is concluded that a continued growth of international travel at current pace hardly may be reconciled with long-term climate targets.

In this paper three 'Images' of air travel on a sustainable path in 2050 are outlined. The method used is backcasting. A stabilization of the carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere at 450 parts per million is assumed to constitute a sustainable level. It is concluded that a refinement of the conventional turbofan aircraft is probably not sufficient to reach even the less demanding target level, even though a 40% reduction of fuel intensity may be achieved. The introduction of more radical aircraft configurations, e.g. the flying wing, probably has the greatest potential for reducing fuel consumption, but the development of such aircraft is uncertain. A less risky strategy is to opt for a high-speed propeller aircraft with a cruise speed which is 20-25% lower than for a conventional turbofan aircraft. This configuration entails a 56% cut of carbon dioxide emissions per passenger-kilometre compared to 2000. If this technology trajectory is combined with a development characterized by a weakened emphasis on economic growth together with less hectic lifestyles, it may be possible to reach even the most demanding of the target levels. Air travel per capita in 2050 would then be slightly higher than in 2000. If only the less demanding target level is to be reached global air travel per capita may be about 110% higher than in 2000.

In this paper a life cycle perspective is used to analyse Europabanan, a proposed high-speed rail track in Sweden. The life cycle emissions reductions are found to be 550,000 tons of CO2-equivalents per annum by 2025/2030 with almost 60% of this coming from a shift from truck to rail freight and 40% from a shift from air and road travel to high-speed rail travel. In contexts similar to Sweden, it is thus an important issue whether a large increase is required in freight rail capacity anyway, since high-speed rail investments may not be justified for the passenger markets alone. The study also indicates that a substantial share of emissions due to construction of the new railway could be counterbalanced through the reduced need for building and maintaining roads and airports, and for manufacturing cars.

Future transport systems consistent with long-term climate targets are examined in this thesis, using a systems perspective covering the entire transport system. Aviation is given particular attention, as expansion of this mode is difficult to reconcile with climate targets. The aim is to provide scientific decision support for current transport policy-making, especi-ally regarding structures with high inertia, e.g. urban structure, roads, railways, fuel produc-tion systems and vehicle fleets. An additional aim is to widen the perception of possible transport futures consistent with meeting climate targets, and to support a wider discussion in society on this topic. Papers I and III are backcasting studies which encompass the whole transport system. Paper III outlines an image of future Swedish transport by 2050, in which energy use per capita is reduced by 60%. This reduction is consistent with a 42% reduction in total global greenhouse gas emissions. Paper IV shows that total air travel by Swedes generates about 8.7 million tons of CO2-equivalents annually. This corresponds to about 12% of total Swedish emissions. Considering the rapid growth in emissions, aviation is key to achieving overall climate targets. Paper V indicates that building high-speed tracks between Stockholm, Gothenburg and Malmö may yield emissions reductions of about 550,000 tons of CO2-equivalents annually, if a life-cycle perspective is considered for all modes. However, this reduction is contingent on continuing growth of transport volumes, which seems diffi-cult to reconcile with the images in Papers II and III. This might consequently be a „second best‟ solution if a more radical break in transport growth is deemed unlikely due to external drivers.

The overall conclusion from this thesis is that improved vehicle technology and low carbon fuels are necessary, but not solely sufficient, to achieve long-term targets consistent with limiting global warming to two degrees. The growth in volume, especially of car and air travel and truck transport, must also be curbed. However, total travel volume can be maintained at 2005 levels if substantial modal shifts to cycling and public transport are achieved. Moreover, if conscious measures are taken regarding urban planning and the use of communications technology to replace travel, functional accessibility may increase considerably. The trend-breaking development needed to achieve climate targets requires a combination of different policy measures. Pricing of external effects, e.g. greenhouse gas emissions, is a key strategy and would involve ending aviation‟s exemption from carbon tax and value-added tax. Other possible pricing measures include differentiated charges for car travel in urban areas, km-charges on trucks and increased fuel taxes. However, to gain acceptance for pricing measures and maintain a well-functioning society, better alternatives with a lower climate impact are needed. Increased road capacity in urban areas usually increases car travel. Therefore, to achieve the targets set, strict prioritisation of investments in public transport, cycling and ICT infrastructure is needed, especially since public resources are limited. Another conclusion is that, for transport policies to be effective and not lead to sub-optimisations, it is necessary to consider the wider system delimitations explored in this thesis.

Sverige och andra länder behöver driva på för att etablera starka internationella styrmedel för att få ner utsläppen från flyget. Detta kommer dock att ta många år. Med tanke på den snabba ökningen av utsläpp krävs därför också temporära styrmedel om Parismålen ska kunna nås.

The aim of this study has been to explore success factors and barriers to the formation and implementation of single policy measures and policy packages in transport, and to identify strategies to manage such barriers. As a first step, we developed a typology of barriers and success factors for policy formation and implementation. Secondly, we carried out an empirical analysis of barriers and success factors in four cases of policy packaging: Urban Congestion Charging; National Heavy Vehicle Fees; Aviation in the European Emissions Trading System and The EU’s First Railway Package. The third and final task was to identify more general strategies to manage barriers in policy formation and implementation. A main conclusion in this report is that a conscious application of these strategies may contribute significantly to successful formation and implementation of even controversial policies or policy packages.

In this paper an image of a sustainable transport system for Sweden in 2050 is outlined. The emissions per capita in this image may be generalized to a global population of 9 billions, and still be consistent with a stabilization of the carbon dioxide concentration at 450ppm (parts per million). Swedish transport energy use per capita is 4.6MWh in the image, compared to 12.5MWh at present. The aim is, first, to widen the perspective of sustainable transport futures and, second, to provide a basis for present decisions in areas characterized by a high inertia, e.g. regarding infrastructure and the built-up environment. All transport generated by the lifestyles of Swedish residents are included. The reduction of energy use in the image is primarily achieved by an introduction of energy efficient vehicles and a conscious combination of IT-services and urban planning. The latter aims at increasing functional accessibility while reducing commuting. A prioritization of leisure travel to structurally-enforced travel gives the possibility to increase leisure travel per capita by one third. However, this is contingent on a 50% reduction of per capita car travel in cities. Given the set-up target, it may be concluded that the need for new arterial road capacity in cities often is negligible, even with a considerable population increase.

In many industrialised countries, the climate impact from long-distance travel is greater than that from short-distance travel. In this paper, we present five scenarios for long-distance travel in 2060, which are consistent with a 67% probability of limiting global warming to 1.8 degrees. The scenarios concern travel by the Swedish population, but per capita travel volume and fuel use could be generalised globally. A key result is that all scenarios require reductions in Swedish per capita air travel in the range of 38-59% compared to 2017. The direct effect on air travel of implementing a high-speed rail network in Sweden and Northern Europe was found to be modest. A higher emission reduction could be achieved if mixed mode trips comprising rail and air legs were more widely adopted. Finally, the pros and cons of future aviation fuels are discussed, the main candidates being biofuel, electrofuel, and liquid hydrogen.