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  • 1.
    Davidsson, Simon
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Natural Resources and Sustainable Development.
    Grandell, Leena
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Natural Resources and Sustainable Development.
    Wachtmeister, Henrik
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Natural Resources and Sustainable Development.
    Höök, Mikael
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Natural Resources and Sustainable Development.
    Growth curves and sustained commissioning modelling of renewable energy: Investigating resource constraints for wind energy2014In: Energy Policy, ISSN 0301-4215, E-ISSN 1873-6777, Vol. 73, p. 767-776Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Abstract Several recent studies have proposed fast transitions to energy systems based on renewable energy technology. Many of them dismiss potential physical constraints and issues with natural resource supply, and do not consider the growth rates of the individual technologies needed or how the energy systems are to be sustained over longer time frames. A case study is presented modelling potential growth rates of the wind energy required to reach installed capacities proposed in other studies, taking into account the expected service life of wind turbines. A sustained commissioning model is proposed as a theoretical foundation for analysing reasonable growth patterns for technologies that can be sustained in the future. The annual installation and related resource requirements to reach proposed wind capacity are quantified and it is concluded that these factors should be considered when assessing the feasibility, and even the sustainability, of fast energy transitions. Even a sustained commissioning scenario would require significant resource flows, for the transition as well as for sustaining the system, indefinitely. Recent studies that claim there are no potential natural resource barriers or other physical constraints to fast transitions to renewable energy appear inadequate in ruling out these concerns.

  • 2.
    Sallh, David
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Natural Resources and Sustainable Development.
    Wachtmeister, Henrik
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Natural Resources and Sustainable Development.
    Tang, Xu
    Höök, Mikael
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Natural Resources and Sustainable Development.
    Offshore oil: Investigating production parameters of fields of varying size, location and water depth2015In: Fuel, ISSN 0016-2361, E-ISSN 1873-7153, Vol. 139, p. 430-440Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper derives empirical estimates of field depletion level, depletion rate, decline rate and characteristic time intervals in offshore oil production based on a global field-by-field database containing 603 offshore oil fields. Statistical distributions as well as arithmetic and weighted averages of production parameters are derived for different categories of fields specified by size, location and water depth. A significant tendency of small fields having higher depletion and decline rates is found. Similarly, OECD countries generally have higher rates compared to non-OECD countries. Trends related to water depth are not clearly distinguishable and require additional investigation of time related aspects. Resulting spreads in derived parameter estimates are found to be well described by positively skewed probability distributions. Also, in line with theory, a strong correlation between depletion and decline rate is found. According to the study, the net share of global offshore production from smaller and deeper fields is increasing. A continuation of these trends would likely have implications for future aggregate offshore production behaviour, most notably, increasing global aggregate decline rates.

  • 3.
    Thorbjörnsson, Anders
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Natural Resources and Sustainable Development.
    Wachtmeister, Henrik
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Natural Resources and Sustainable Development.
    Wang, Jianliang
    China University of Petroleum - Beijing.
    Höök, Mikael
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Natural Resources and Sustainable Development.
    Carbon capture and coal consumption: Implications of energy penalties and large scale deployment2015In: Energy Strategy Reviews, ISSN 2211-467X, E-ISSN 2211-4688, Vol. 7, no 4, p. 18-28Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Carbon capture and storage (CCS) can limit carbon emissions from coal power stations, but unfortunately decreases the net efficiency of such power plants. This study examines the link between capture technology and coal consumption for large scale CCS deployment. Estimates of the efficiency reduction (i.e., the energy penalty, EP) are assembled for three main technologies. Pre-combustion CCS is most efficient (EP = 18.9 ± 3.9%), oxy-fuel combustion CCS is intermediate (EP = 21.4 ± 5.3%), and post-combustion CCS is least efficient (EP = 24.8 ± 7.5%). Published CCS scenarios are compiled and their associated coal uses are calculated using the obtained EPs under different technology pathways. Coal consumption using CCS can be up to 31% higher compared to equal non-CCS cases, leading to several scenarios exceeding projected coal production in resource constrained studies.

  • 4.
    Tokimatsu, Koji
    et al.
    Tokyo Inst Technol, Midori Ku, Nagatsuta, Yokohama, Kanagawa, Japan; Natl Inst Adv Ind Sci & Technol, Higashi, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan.
    Höök, Mikael
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Natural Resources and Sustainable Development.
    McLellan, Benjamin
    Kyoto Univ, Grad Sch Energy Sci, Sakyo Ku, Yoshida Honmachi, Kyoto, Japan.
    Wachtmeister, Henrik
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Natural Resources and Sustainable Development.
    Murakamie, Shinsuke
    Univ Tokyo, Sch Engn, Bunkyo Ku, Hongo, Tokyo, Japan.
    Yasuoka, Rieko
    Syst Res Ctr Co Ltd, Minato Ku, Toranomon, Tokyo, Japan.
    Nishio, Masahiro
    Natl Inst Adv Ind Sci & Technol, Higashi, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan.
    Energy modeling approach to the global energy-mineral nexus: Exploring metal requirements and the well-below 2 degrees C target with 100 percent renewable energy2018In: Applied Energy, ISSN 0306-2619, E-ISSN 1872-9118, Vol. 225, p. 1158-1175Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Detailed analysis of pathways to future sustainable energy systems is important in order to identify and overcome potential constraints and negative impacts and to increase the utility and speed of this transition. A key aspect of a shift to renewable energy technologies is their relatively higher metal intensities. In this study a bottom-up cost-minimizing energy model is used to calculate aggregate metal requirements in different energy technology including hydrogen and climate policy scenarios and under a range of assumptions reflecting uncertainty in future metal intensities, recycling rate and life time of energy technologies. Metal requirements are then compared to current production rates and resource estimates to identify potentially "critical" metals. Three technology pathways are investigated: 100 percent renewables, coal & nuclear and gas & renewables, each under the two different climate policies: net zero emissions satisfying the well-below 2 degrees C target and business as usual without carbon constraints, resulting together in six scenarios. The results suggest that the three different technology pathways lead to an almost identical degree of warming without any climate policy, while emissions peaks within a few decades with a 2 degrees C policy. The amount of metals required varies significantly in the different scenarios and under the various uncertainty assumptions. However, some can be deemed "critical" in all outcomes, including Vanadium. The originality of this study lies in the specific findings, and in the employment of an energy model for the energy-mineral nexus study, to provide better understanding for decision making and policy development.

  • 5.
    Tokimatsu, Koji
    et al.
    Tokyo Inst Technol, Midori Ku, 4259 Nagatsuta, Yokohama, Kanagawa 2268503, Japan.;Natl Inst Adv Ind Sci & Technol, 1-2-1 Namiki, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 3058564, Japan..
    Wachtmeister, Henrik
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Natural Resources and Sustainable Development.
    McLellan, Benjamin
    Kyoto Univ, Grad Sch Energy Sci, Sakyo Ku, Yoshida Honmachi, Kyoto 6068501, Japan..
    Davidsson, Simon
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Natural Resources and Sustainable Development.
    Murakami, Shinsuke
    Univ Tokyo, Sch Engn, Bunkyo Ku, 7-3-1 Hongo, Tokyo 1138656, Japan..
    Höök, Mikael
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Natural Resources and Sustainable Development.
    Yasuoka, Rieko
    Syst Res Ctr Co Ltd, Minato Ku, KY Bldg,3-16-7 Toranomon, Tokyo 1050001, Japan..
    Nishio, Masahiro
    Natl Inst Adv Ind Sci & Technol, 1-2-1 Namiki, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 3058564, Japan..
    Energy modeling approach to the global energy-mineral nexus: A first look at metal requirements and the 2 degrees C target2017In: Applied Energy, ISSN 0306-2619, E-ISSN 1872-9118, Vol. 207, p. 494-509Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Stringent GHG emission cuts are required for meeting the so-called Paris Agreement. Due to higher metal intensities of renewable energy, such a transition must also include required amounts of metal. This study estimates the metal requirement for various power generation technology mix scenarios by using a cost-minimizing energy model on the global energy-mineral nexus. Two energy and climate scenarios were developed to represent primarily economic efficiency and environmental performance, respectively, under climate policies with net zero emissions satisfying the 2 degrees C target, and without any constraints (i.e. Business As Usual). Based on the future additions of various power generation technologies, metal requirements and cumulative production were estimated in zero-order and conservative scenarios, to compare with production levels in 2015 and reserves. The results suggest that there may be cause for concern about metal requirement and/or availability in PV, nuclear, and (Plug-in Hybrid) Electric Vehicles in 2100. For PV in the Gas & Ren scenario, most of the metal usage exceeded their production levels and the reserves. It is concluded that mineral availability and production rates should be given greater attention for planning and modeling of sustainable energy systems.

  • 6.
    Wachtmeister, Henrik
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Natural Resources and Sustainable Development.
    World oil supply and unconventional resources: Bottom-up perspectives on tight oil production2018Licentiate thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Oil is the world’s largest primary energy source. It dominates the transportation sector which underpins the world economy. Yet, oil is a nonrenewable resource, destined not to last forever. In the mid-2000s global conventional oil production stagnated, leading to rising oil prices and fears of permanent oil scarcity. These fears, together with the high prices, receded with the unforeseen emergence of a new supply source: tight oil.

    This licentiate thesis investigates unconventional tight oil production and its impacts on world oil supply in terms of resource availability and oil market dynamics, and in turn briefly discusses some possible wider economic, political and environmental implications of these impacts. The thesis is based on three papers. The first investigates the usefulness of bottom-up modelling by a retrospective study of past oil projections. The second looks at how unconventional tight oil production can be modelled on the well level using decline curve analysis. The third derives typical production parameters for conventional offshore oil fields, a growing segment of conventional production and a useful comparison to tight oil.

    The results show that tight oil production has increased resource availability significantly, as well as introduced a fast responding marginal supply source operating on market principles rather than political ones. The emergence of tight oil production has altered OPEC’s strategic options and led to a period of lower and less volatile oil prices. However, this condition of world oil supply can only last as long as the unconventional resource base allows, and, at the same time, total fossil fuel consumption will have to fall to limit climate change. It is concluded that this breathing space with lower oil prices could be used as an opportunity to develop and implement policy for an efficient managed decline of global oil use in order to achieve the dual goals of increased human economic welfare and limited climate change, and in the process preempt any future oil supply shortage. Unconventional tight oil production can both help and hinder in this endeavor. Accurate models and analyses of oil production dynamics and impacts are therefore crucial when maneuvering towards this preferred future.

  • 7.
    Wachtmeister, Henrik
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Natural Resources and Sustainable Development.
    Henke, Petter
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Natural Resources and Sustainable Development.
    Höök, Mikael
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Natural Resources and Sustainable Development.
    Oil projections in retrospect: Revisions, accuracy and current uncertainty2018In: Applied Energy, ISSN 0306-2619, E-ISSN 1872-9118, Vol. 220, p. 138-153Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Scenarios and projections are important for decision and policy making. Accuracy of past projections can be useful for both scenario users and developers, for insight on current projection uncertainty, and for guiding improvement efforts. This paper compiles projections of oil production, oil prices and upstream investments from the years 2000 to 2016 from the annual World Energy Outlook by the International Energy Agency, and investigates revisions and accuracy of past projections and implied uncertainty of current ones. Revisions of world oil production, price and investments have been motivated by a combination of demand and supply factors. Downward revisions are mainly allocated to OPEC, while recent upward revisions are due to unconventional oil, in particular US tight oil. Non-OPEC conventional projections have been stable. Price and investments have been revised mostly upwards. Projection accuracy follows the size and directions of these revisions, with high accuracy for Non-OPEC (mean absolute percentage error of 4.8% on a 5 year horizon) and low for OPEC (8.9%) and unconventional (37%). Counteracting error directions contribute to accurate total World oil supply projections (4%) while price projections have low accuracy (37%). Scenario users should be aware of implied uncertainty of current oil projections. In planning and decision making, uncertainty ranges such as those presented here can be used as benchmarks. Scenario developers should focus improvements efforts on three areas in particular: tight oil, OPEC and new technology.

  • 8.
    Wachtmeister, Henrik
    et al.
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Natural Resources and Sustainable Development.
    Lund, Linnea
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences.
    Aleklett, Kjell
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Natural Resources and Sustainable Development.
    Höök, Mikael
    Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Natural Resources and Sustainable Development.
    Production Decline Curves of Tight Oil Wells in Eagle Ford Shale2017In: Natural Resources Research, ISSN 1520-7439, E-ISSN 1573-8981, Vol. 26, no 3, p. 365-377Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This study derives typical production curves of tight oil wells based on monthly production data from multiple horizontal Eagle Ford shale oil wells. Well properties initial production (IP) rate and production decline rate were documented, and estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) was calculated using two empirical production decline curve models, the hyperbolic and the stretched exponential function. Individual well productivity, which can be described by IP level, production decline curvature and well lifetime, varies significantly. The average monthly IP was found to be around 500 bbl/day, which yields an EUR in the range of 150-290 kbbl depending on used curve, assumed well lifetime or production cutoff level. More detailed analyses on EUR can be made once longer time series are available. For more realistic modeling of multiple wells a probabilistic approach might be favorable to account for variety in well productivity. For less detailed modeling, for example conceptual regional bottom-up production modeling, the hyperbolic function with deterministic parameters might be preferred because of ease of use, for example with the average parameter values IP = 500 bbl/day, D = 0.3 and b = 1 resulting in an EUR of 250 kbbl with a 30-year well lifetime, however, with the recognition that this extrapolation is uncertain.

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