The Swedish road safety management is based on the Vision Zero and designated interim targets to track progress towards its achievement. 2020 was the final year for achieving the interim target of halving the number of fatalities between 2007 and 2020, i.e., a maximum of 220 fatalities in 2020. The interim target also specifies that the number of seriously injured in road traffic must be reduced by a quarter. This report describes and analyses the current road safety trends in terms of road safety performance indicators and the numbers of fatalities and seriously injured. 

As this report is the last for the 2007-2020 interim target period, it can be seen as a final summary of how well the targets were achieved for fatalities and seriously injured and for the safety performance indicators. However, it is also important to remember that the year 2020 coincided with the COVID-19 pandemic, which had a profound impact on virtually the entire society. This affected travel in a number of different ways, and consequently it is impossible to estimate the impact this has had on the outcome in 2020, although it probably has led to a slightly lower outcome. 

The table below shows starting and final values together with an overview of whether the safety performance indicators have met the 2020 targets.

Projektet Smarta urbana trafikzoner har genomfört tre demonstrationer av smarta zoner som kan bli ett kraftfullt verktyg för att bidra till tystare, säkrare och hälsosammare urbana miljöer. Den smarta zonen bygger på digitala verktyg såsom uppkopplade sensorer och geofencing. Ett geofence är ett digitalt definierat område där fordonet styrs av digitalt uppsatta regler, vilket möjliggör kontroll av hur ett fordon körs inom zonen, utan mänsklig inblandning.

A moving base driving simulator experiment was carried out in order to investigate the effects of milled rumble strips on driver fatigue. There were rumble strips both at the edge line and centre line. Four different physical designs of milled rumble strips (yielding noise values from 1.5 to 16 dBA) and two placements on shoulder were used in the experiment. Sound and vibrations from real milled rumble strips were reproduced in the simulator. In total 35 regular shift workers drove during the morning hours after a full night shift. The main results showed an increase in sleepiness indicators (EEG alpha/theta activity, eye closure duration, standard deviation of lateral position, subjective sleepiness) from start to before hitting the rumble strip, an alerting effect in most parameters (not subjective sleepiness) after hitting the strip. The alertness enhancing effect was, however, short and the sleepiness signs returned 5 min after the rumble strip hit. Essentially no effects were seen due to type of strip. It was concluded that various aspects of sleepiness are increased before hitting a rumble strip and that the effect is very short-lived. Type of strip, as used in the present study did not have any effect.

Rumble strips in the center of two-lane rural roads and on the shoulder of motorways are a countermeasure aimed to help drivers who unintentionally are about to leave the lane, for example, due to fatigue or inattention. Rumble strips are widely used. They are installed in the raised profile or as in-ground (milled or pressed). The design varies in width, depth, length, and design. The most effective are the in-ground ones. Evaluations show an effect of 10% reduction of all injury crashes and 37% reduction on target crashes (head-on, single crashes to the left, etc.). Rumble strips contribute to speed reduction of 2–5 km/h and an increased distance to them with 10–15 cm, something that is good for vehicle-to-vehicle interactions, but less good for pedestrians and cyclist using the shoulder. To summarize, rumble strips save lives to a rather small cost in relation to other infrastructure-based countermeasures.

Within Vision Zero as a strategy, it is imbedded the fact that injuries occur when the mechanical energy reaches individuals at rates that entail forces in excess of their thresholds for injury. Therefore, according to Vision Zero, there are three main strategies to eliminate fatalities and severe injuries due to road crashes: protect people from exposure of harmful energy, reduce the risk of events with harmful energy, and protect people from harmful energy in the event of a collision. Controlling speed is therefore of the task of utmost importance in a strategy such as Vision Zero.

A traffic enforcement camera, or “speed camera,” system has the possibility to control speed in a road system, and it has the possibility to affect its road users both at a macro and a micro perspective. In a micro perspective, it primarily concerns how effective the cameras are locally at the road sections where the enforcement is focused on, while at a macro perspective it is more focused on how the camera enforcement system and strategies, possibly together with the overall enforcement strategy, affects attitudes and norms related to driving with excessive speed. Experience worldwide has proven the effectiveness of automated speed cameras in reducing speed and, in turn, crashes and injuries.

In this chapter, firstly the rationale behind speed limits, speed management, and speed compliance strategies will be explored and analyzed, in particular from a Vision Zero perspective. Secondly, various different approaches to speed camera systems in Europe, in Sweden, Norway, the Netherlands, and France, will be analyzed and further explored. Finally, based on similarities and differences in approaches in these countries, in the last section some aspects concerning the setting of speed limits, speed management strategies that underpin the choice of camera technology, and modus of operandi, safety effects of and attitudes toward cameras, will be explored and discussed.

Background

Research has confirmed that there is a correlation between the maturity of road safety practices and road safety incidents (Amador and Willis, 2014), the occurrence of death and injury in road use reflects the levels of knowledge, skills, experience, and will that are present within the management and operation of the road system. This paper presents recent development and use of maturity models for rating Safe System adoption and discusses the utility of these approaches for road safety programmes and practice.

Objective

To explore the validity and value of maturity frameworks to contribute usefully to the development of the road safety management systems which exist at a project, organizational or country level.

Programme Description

The Safe System Framework (ITF), the Safe System Cultural Maturity Model (Agilysis) and the Road Safety Maturity Framework (ADB), all developed on the basis of a wide range of international literature, can be used by companies, road authorities, governments and others in deciding to what extent the road safety problems they face, and planned programmes match the current scientific knowledge about effective interventions. These frameworks consist of concentrated descriptions of best practices, allowing for adjustment to specific local situations for new road safety challenges.

Outcomes and Learnings

Implementing the Safe System is first and foremost a matter of cooperation between professionals, adapting the theory to the practical limitations. At various organisational levels, the Safe System must influence a combination of policy, strategy, management, culture and practice. Through their combined efforts, these maturity models provide relevant support to identify Safe System alignment at national, regional, municipal, organizational and project level.

Implications

These maturity models provide mechanisms for measurement and comparison, assisting in diagnosing vulnerabilities, harmonizing approaches, enhancing collaboration and strengthening capacity.

Conclusions

There are multiple routes to Safe System maturity. Collectively, these tools can provide a holistic view of a jurisdiction’s or organization’s maturity. Used in combination, they provide a toolbox for measuring and enhancing maturity.

Within the project “Safe accessibility” initiated by the Swedish Transport Administration, development of the use of rumble strips as a measure for improved traffic safety is carried out. Rumble strips are placed in the centre line on roads wider than 7 metres and with a speed limit of 80 km/h or higher. At the request of the Swedish Transport Administration, VTI has completed a study analysing the effect of such rumble strips on the road. The main purpose with central rumble strips is to “wake up” drivers who for some reason unintentionally are starting to pass the middle line. Earlier studies abroad and Swedish in-depth fatal accident studies indicate that this measure would have a positive safety effect, especially on running off the road to the left and head-on accidents. The aim of this report is to study the accident rates on roads which have been equipped with rumble strips in the middle. The most important parameter to study is the rate of fatalities or seriously injured road users (FSI-rate) after the measure (performance of rumble strips) compared to the FSI-rate before the measure. It should also have been desirable to study the course of accidents of the actual accident types. However, it has not yet been possible to perform such studies due to uncertain accuracy in the accident spot determination and description of the accident course. The analysis is based on information about the location of roads with rumble strips from the regional offices of the Swedish Transport Administration and accident data from the data base STRADA in the period 2003–2009. The work is a before/after-study in which accident rate before the milling of rumble strips in the middle of the road is compared with the period after. Some of the roads have been equipped with automatic speed cameras during the project. In the present summary, mainly results from roads which were not equipped with speed cameras are accounted for; 212 objects of the total length of 2,570 km. But 17 of these 212 objects have got a reduction of speed limit in September 2008. Thus there are 195 objects with unchanged speed limit, which consist the main results of the study.

The present report presents four studies that were conducted with the aim to evaluate how electronic billboards (ERS) affect traffic safety. Study 1 is a literature review to examine how billboards impact road safety. The conclusions from the review showed that animated pictures and the location of the billboards have a major impact on driver behaviour as well as that darkness and adverse weather conditions can create glare which makes driving difficult especially for older drivers.

The second and third studies compared the speed and the number of accidents before and after the installation of the billboards. Neither difference in traffic volume nor in average speed could be demonstrated. There was nothing in the studied accidents to suggest that the accident was affected by a billboard.

The fourth sub-study is a field study investigating 41 drivers (driving and visual behaviour) on the E4 as they pass the billboards. Results showed several cases of visual distraction. The results also show a negative attitude to the billboards for a majority of the drivers.

In summary, no effects from the billboards on traffic safety could be showed at the macro level. However, the effects of visual distraction must be taken into consideration and investigated further before deciding whether billboards will be implemented on Swedish roads.

Projektet har haft som mål att utveckla säkerhetskulturen i en grupp bussföretag. Enkätmätningar visar att attityder till ledningens information om säkerhet och förarnas kunskap om företagens säkerhetsmål, men även till förarnas hastighetshållning, har signifikant förbättrats sedan projektstart för några år sedan. Under 2021 har tekniska fleetsystem utvecklats för att mäta och följa upp hastighet. Framöver kommer uppföljning av bränsleförbrukning och olyckor att fortsätta utvecklas. Nya tekniska system visar med hjälp av geofencing att hastighetsefterlevnad på vägar med hastighetsgränser 30–50 km/tim behöver förbättras. Dialog med återkoppling av mätdata till förare behövs för att utveckla säkerhetskulturen i bussföretagen. Bältesanvändningen är mycket hög och vi ser en möjlig koppling mellan att mäta och följa upp, och beteendet hos förare.

Studiens syfte är att finna metoder och teknik för att utveckla och förbättra säkerhetskulturen från ett organisatoriskt- och ledarperspektiv. Säkerhetskultur handlar om gemensamma attityder och beteenden avseende säkerhet och vi har i denna studie fokuserat på prioriteringar, ledarskap, kommunikation och engagemang hos anställda. Hälften av bolagen i studien var engagerade och deltog i möten och engagerade sina förare. De mindre bolagen, påverkades mer av pandemin och hade svårt att få tid eller kraft för engagemang. Detta pekar på vikten av rutiner som har prövats och utvärderats och som är lätta att hantera. De aktiva företagen har köpt och varit med och utvecklat ett fleetsystem för att kunna mäta och följa upp hastighetsefterlevnad. Processen tog längre tid än väntat och har stött på problem med hantering av personuppgifter.

Recent studies of the relationship between the speed of traffic and road safety, stated as the number of fatalities and the number of injury accidents, are reviewed and their results synthesised by means of meta-analysis. All studies were based on data fully or partly for years after 2000. Previously proposed models of the relationship between the speed of traffic and road safety, including the Power Model and an Exponential Model, are supported. Summary estimates of coefficients show that the relationship between speed and road safety remains strong. The Power Model and the Exponential Model both fit the data very well. The relationship between speed and road safety is the same at the individual driver level as at the aggregate level referring to the mean speed of traffic.

Trafikverket har under 2010-talet arbetat med en åtgärdsstrategi inom järnvägen som bland annat inneburit att nya stängsel har satts upp längs spåren på utpekade sträckor. Syftet med dessa åtgärder har varit att minska antal personpåkörningar i enlighet med halveringsmålet som innebär högst 55 omkomma i järnvägstransportsystemet år 2020. Det har dock inte genomförts någon mer omfattande utvärdering av stängslingens effekt, delvis på grund av de svårigheter detta innebär. Syftet med den här studien var att analysera stängslingens effekter i Trafikverkets region Öst och, baserat på dessa erfarenheter, bedöma om metoden kan användas nationellt. En viktig del i projektet var att bedöma om de dataunderlag som finns är av tillräckligt bra kvalitet för att en nationell utvärdering ska vara rimlig att genomföra.

Results from travel surveys, together with traffic monitoring programs, serve as a basis for policy decisions and evaluations. Correct interpretation of the survey results is therefore of vital importance, and the impact of different sources of error needs to be investigated. This paper presents a study of nonresponse errors in a Swedish travel survey. Survey methodologists have addressed the problem of nonresponse for a long time, and several methods have been developed to reduce possible bias. Particularly common are different weighting methods based on auxiliary information. However, the performance of these techniques is based on how well the chosen auxiliary variables can explain the response behavior. The aims of the present study were to (a) investigate whether the mobility of nonrespondents differs from the mobility of respondents and (b) determine whether weighting reduces possible nonresponse bias. A weighting technique called calibration was used. The travel survey was based on a mail questionnaire, and the response rate was about 53%. Nonrespondents were contacted by telephone and asked a selected number of questions from the original questionnaire. Results show that mobility did differ between respondents and nonrespondents for some of the travel modes. The effect of calibration was generally small and inconsistent; the bias was reduced in some cases and increased in others. Nevertheless, calibration is recommended if procedures for calculating the weights are readily available.

Rapporten är framtagen med ekonomiskt bidrag från Skyltfonden, Trafikverket. Ståndpunkter och slutsatser i rapporten reflekterar författaren och överensstämmer inte med nödvändighet med Trafikverkets ståndpunkter och slutsatser inom rapportens ämnesområde.

Den 9–23 juni 2021 hölls en internationell workshop om säkerhet för motoriserade tvåhjulingar. Workshopen, Riding in a safe system, hölls som en serie virtuella möten och arrangerades av International Transport Forum (ITF), Trafikverket, Internationella motorcykelförbundet (FIM), motorcykeltillverkarnas föreningar IMMA och ACEM, samt Statens väg- och transportforskningsinstitut (VTI). Workshopen var en uppföljning av den tredje globala ministerkonferensen om trafiksäkerhet, som hölls i Stockholm i februari 2020, men den byggde också på en tidigare workshop 2008 i Lillehammer och 2015 års ITF-rapport Improving Safety for Motorcycle, Scooter and Moped Riders.

Workshopens centrala del bestod av sex expertsessioner: (i) hållbar trafiksäkerhet, arbetsmiljöfrågor och upphandling, (ii) byte av färdsätt och mobilitet i staden, (iii) träning, utbildning och körkortstagande, (iv) fordonssäkerhet, skyddsutrustning och intelligenta transportsystem, (v) väginfrastruktur och vägmiljö, (vi) hastighetsanpassning och efterlevnad i olika miljöer. I varje expertsession diskuterades också säkerhet för barn och unga.

Deltagarna i sessionerna var inbjudna experter på respektive område och varje sessionerna leddes av en moderator och en rapportör. Experterna representerade olika typer av organisationer och kom från olika delar av världen. Workshopen utmynnade i åtta prioriterade åtgärder för att förbättra trafiksäkerheten för motoriserade tvåhjulingar och integrera dessa i ett säkert vägtransportsystem (Safe System) till 2030: 

1. Tillämpa hållbar trafiksäkerhet – Offentliga och privata organisationer bör tillämpa bästa tillgängliga kunskap och rapportera om sin organisations fotavtryck med avseende på säkerhet för motoriserade tvåhjulingar.

2. Stöd byte av färdsätt – Städer och vägmyndigheter bör utveckla nya lösningar för mobilitet i stadsmiljö som inkluderar motoriserade tvåhjulingar.

3. Använd säkra fordon och säker skyddsutrustning – införandet av säkra fordon och produkter bör främjas genom reglering, upphandling och incitament.

4. Utbilda säkra förare – Regeringar, myndigheter, intresseorganisationer och industrin bör påskynda tillgången till effektiva och tillgängliga utbildningsprogram i alla regioner, särskilt i låg- och medelinkomstländer.

5. Designa om infrastrukturen – Regeringar och vägmyndigheter bör följa den senaste standarden och uppdatera sina vägmanualer och riktlinjer för design och underhåll så att de inkluderar bästa tillgängliga praxis för motoriserade tvåhjulingar.

6. Säkerställ rätt hastighet – Vägmyndigheter bör fastställa lämpliga hastighetsgränser som är i linje med principerna för ett säkert vägtransportsystem. Alla intressenter bör medverka till god hastighetsefterlevnad genom att stödja lämpliga åtgärder.

7. Skydda barn och unga –Om barn färdas som passagerare på en motoriserad tvåhjuling bör lämplig skyddsutrustning användas, och fordonet bör ha relevanta skyddssystem. Vidare ska barn skyddas när de vistas i områden runt skolor.

8. Ta fram ny kunskap – Myndigheter, industrin och forskarsamhället ska fylla kunskapsluckor och utveckla innovativa lösningar som ökar säkerheten för användare av motoriserade tvåhjulingar.

An international workshop on safety for powered-two-wheelers (PTWs), Riding in a safe system, was held as a series of virtual meetings 9–23 June 2021. The workshop was co-organised by the International Transport Forum (ITF), the Swedish Transport Administration, the International Motorcycling Federation (FIM), the motorcycle manufacturers associations (IMMA and ACEM), and the Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute (VTI). The workshop was a follow-up of the Third Global Ministerial Conference on Road Safety, held in Stockholm in February 2020, but it also built on a previous workshop in 2008 in Lillehammer and the 2015 ITF research report “Improving Safety for Motorcycle, Scooter and Moped Riders”. 

The workshop, which included six expert sessions, focused on seven different areas: (i) Sustainable practices, work-related issues and procurement, (ii) Modal shift and urban needs, (iii) Training, education, and licensing, (iv) Vehicle safety, protective safety, and Intelligent Transport Systems, (v) Road infrastructure and road environment, (vi) Speed management, adapting speeds and behaviour to different environments, (vii) Youth and child safety. 

Eight priority actions were recognized by the workshop to achieve the integration of PTWs in the safe system by 2030. These actions build on the Stockholm declaration and its 9 recommendations. The actions are generalized results from the outcome of the expert sessions. The 8 priority actions from the workshop are: (i) Move to sustainable practice, (ii) Support modal shift, (iii) Adopt safe vehicles and equipment, (iv) Educate safe riders, (v) Redesign infrastructure, (vi) Ensure safe speed, (vii) Protect children, and (viii) increase knowledge. 

A new way of organizing drink driving enforcement was tested in a pilot study in a Swedish police region. The aim of the pilot study was to enhance the visibility of drink driving controls, in order to increase the drivers’ perceived risk of being stopped by the police to conduct a breath test. This report presents results from an evaluation of the trial.

The goal was to carry out controls for at least 20 hours per 100 km2 per week and each control should last for 20 minutes. The controls were combined with communication efforts, mainly through posts on the police’s Facebook pages.

A new way of organizing drink driving enforcement was tested in a pilot study in a Swedish police region. The aim of the pilot study was to enhance the visibility of drink driving controls, in order to increase the drivers’ perceived risk of being stopped by the police to conduct a breath test. This report presents results from an evaluation of the trial.

The goal was to carry out controls for at least 20 hours per 100 km2 per week and each control should last for 20 minutes. The controls were combined with communication efforts, mainly through posts on the police’s Facebook pages.

Syftet med det här projektet har varit att föreslå en metod för att utvärdera förändringar i polisens arbetssätt med avseende på rattfylleriövervakning. Huvudsakligen handlar det om att mäta den subjektiva upptäcktsrisken, men utvärdering av polisens arbetssätt och kommunikation föreslås också. Det finns två viktiga delar i polisens strategi för övervakning: kontroller och kommunikation. Den sammantagna effekten av detta behöver utvärderas men man bör även titta på de olika delarna var för sig. I detta pm föreslås därför en utvärdering med tre olika delstudier. För var och en av delstudierna förutsetts att man gör både före- och eftermätningar i dels det område där arbetssättet förändras och dels i ett kontrollområde. Vi är dock medvetna om detta är en ideal situation som kanske inte är möjlig i praktiken. Om en utvärdering kommer att genomföras kan därför förslaget behöva modifieras för att passa de förutsättningar som då råder. De tre olika delstudierna är: Delstudie 1: Utvärdering av polisens implementering Den här delstudien är uppdelad i två nivåer där syftet med nivå 1 är att studera hur polisen ändrat sitt arbetssätt och syftet med nivå 2 är att studera vad som fungerat bra och mindre bra i implementeringen från polisens perspektiv. Nivå 1 är nödvändig för att tolka resultatet av övriga delar i utvärderingar och nivå 2 är en fördjupad utvärdering. Exempel på data som föreslås samlas in är: var och när kontroller genomförs, resultatet av kontrollerna samt informationsspridning till allmänheten. Dessutom föreslås intervjuer med poliser på olika befattningar som deltagit i implementeringen. Delstudie 2: Enkätstudie För att mäta den subjektiva upptäcktsrisken hos förare i allmänhet föreslås en enkätstudie där ett frågeformulär skickas ut via post till ett slumpmässigt urval ur körkortsregistret eller befolkningsregistret (frågorna ska också kunna besvaras som en webbenkät). Målgruppen är personer som har körkort för minst en typ av motorfordon och som också framfört något fordon det senaste året. Ett förslag på utformning av en enkät med 14 frågor har tagits fram. Två frågor behandlar den subjektiva upptäcktsrisken, en som avser upptäcktsrisk på en övergripande nivå och en som avser upptäcktsrisk i fem specifika situationer. Resten av enkäten består av bakgrundsfrågor och frågor om bland annat riskmedvetenhet, normer, om man själv eller någon man känner har blivit stoppad i en kontroll och om man fått information om kontroller via media. Delstudie 3: Utvärdering av kommunikation i sociala medier Syftet med den här delstudien är att bedöma hur väl polisen lyckas nå ut med sitt budskap. Vi föreslår att man samlar in följande typ av information: omfattningen av polisens aktiviteter på sociala medier, spridning, innehåll och karaktär på kommentarerna. Det huvudsakliga syftet med utvärderingen är att mäta subjektiv upptäcktsrisk hos förarpopulationen och jämföra om den har förändrats före och efter att polisen har genomfört förändringar som rör rattfylleriövervakningen. För att uppnå syftet är det nödvändigt att genomföra åtminstone nivå 1 i delstudie 1 (utvärdering av polisens implementering) och delstudie 2 (enkätstudie). Övriga delar är dock också mycket viktiga för att förstå helheten och vi förordar därför att alla delar i utvärderingen genomförs.

Trends in traffic fatalities show that the development for motorcyclists has fallen behind other road users. It is therefore crucial to improve traffic safety for this road user group. The study analyses where in the road network motorcyclists are injured and whether injury severity differs between parts of the network. Injury severity is also examined in relation to other variables such as age, gender, and motorcycle engine performance (i.e., power-to-weight ratio). The results indicate that motorcyclists, relatively more often than passenger car occupants, are injured on low-volume roads that are not subject to any major safety improvements. It is therefore crucial to also encourage other safety measures targeting rider behaviour and vehicle safety. Moreover, analyses of injury severity indicate that, in multiple-vehicle crashes involving motorcycles, the odds of being killed or severely injured are lower on roads with median barriers (i.e., motorways and 2+1 roads) than on two-lane roads.

The main aim of the study was to examine where on the road network motorcyclists are injured. Accidents involving four-wheelers (ATVs, quad bikes) have also been studied, although to a lesser degree. The study is based on police reported injury accidents in Sweden during the period 2003–2012. The results show that motorcyclists, to a greater degree than car occupants, are injured within built-up areas. The same is not true for drivers of four-wheelers. Injury patterns are distributed in the same way as for car occupants between built-up and non built-up areas. Killed and severely injured motorcyclists are overrepresented in accidents at intersections when compared to occupants of passenger cars. The opposite is true for injured four-wheeler drivers who are overrepresented on road sections. The exposure of motorcycle traffic on different parts of the road network is largely unknown. It is therefore, in general, not possible to calculate injury risks. However, when compared to other roads, there seems to be an increased risk of being killed or severely injured on roads with a 70 km/h speed limit.

For a long time, Sweden and Norway have been prominent when it comes to traffic safety. In 1980 and 1990, Norway had fewer deaths per capita than Sweden, while the opposite was the case in 2000 and 2009. Since 2015, Norway has again had fewer deaths per capita than Sweden. The aim of this project has been to analyse Norway's development in recent years and the differences between the countries.

The results show that the number of fatalities per 100,000 inhabitants has decreased from 3.74 in 2009–2013 to 2.35 in 2014–2018 in Norway and from 3.16 to 2.79 in Sweden. The largest difference between the countries during 2014–2018 is among the unprotected road users, 1.10 fatalities per 100,000 inhabitants in Sweden and 0.83 in Norway. The death rate of car occupants is 1.60 in Sweden and 1.43 in Norway. Among the unprotected road users, Norway has a lower number of fatalities per capita for cyclists, moped riders, and pedestrians. For motorcyclists, the difference is marginal.

In general, the countries are rather similar. However, we found differences between, for example, the state road networks. On roads with a speed limit of 90 km/h, the risk of death is significantly higher in Sweden than in Norway and this is most likely due to differences in road type. In Norway almost all these roads have median barriers, while the proportion of traffic on roads with median barriers is only 20 percent in Sweden. On roads with a speed limit of 80 km/h, it is not possible to demonstrate any difference in risk between the countries. Norway also has better speed compliance than Sweden, which is probably a contributing factor to better road safety in Norway than in Sweden in recent years.

Another difference is that Sweden has significantly more deaths than Norway among cyclists who are 75 years or older.

The aim of this project was to compare vehicle speed measurements using Bluetooth detection with radar measurements from a Motorway Control System (MCS). Of particular interest was to evaluate whether the method could be used in before-after studies of road safety measures such as speed cameras or other speed reducing measures.

The results from the study show that:

• The penetration rate varies between 12 and 16 percent depending on the site and whether it is a weekday or weekend.

• Bluetooth measurements provide stable results with respect to average vehicle speed at diurnal level. Comparisons with MCS data show that the results of the two methods follow each other well and the difference between methods is about the same from day to day.

• Speed measurements with Bluetooth sensors are judged to be sufficiently reliable, on the evaluated road type, to be used in before-after studies of various road safety measures.

The aim of this project was to compare vehicle speed measurements using Bluetooth detection with radar measurements from a Motorway Control System (MCS). Of particular interest was to evaluate whether the method could be used in before-after studies of road safety measures such as speed cameras or other speed reducing measures.

The results from the study show that:

• The penetration rate varies between 12 and 16 percent depending on the site and whether it is a weekday or weekend.

• Bluetooth measurements provide stable results with respect to average vehicle speed at diurnal level. Comparisons with MCS data show that the results of the two methods follow each other well and the difference between methods is about the same from day to day.

• Speed measurements with Bluetooth sensors are judged to be sufficiently reliable, on the evaluated road type, to be used in before-after studies of various road safety measures.

TSU92- is a travel survey that started in 1992 with the aim to increase the knowledge of travels made by unprotected road-users. The survey is still focused on these groups, but questions of other transport modes are also included. An evaluation of the quality of the survey is presented in this report and measures to improve the quality are suggested. The study is limited to sampling errors, nonresponse errors, and measurement errors. The evaluation has been conducted as three separate studies. The aim of the study of sampling errors was to establish variance formulae for estimating the size of the errors and to calculate these variances. The aim of the study of nonresponse error was to examine whether respondents and nonrespondents differ with respect to travel habits and, to examine whether calibration reduces possible nonresponse errors. Calibration is a weighting method that are used to compensate for nonresponse. A follow up study of the nonrespondents was conducted to answer these questions. The aim of the study of measurement errors was to examine the extent of the problem with incorrectly filled-in questionnaires, and to try to understand how respondents think when the answer the questions.

The aim of Deliverable 5.1 of the ITERATE project is to present results of analyses made of the data collected in the ITERATE WP4 driving simulator experiments. The ITERATE WP4 driving simulator experiments consisted of train and car driving experiments carried out on a portable car/train driving simulator platform and in full scale car and train driving simulators. The analyses conducted and presented in this deliverable consist of hypothesis testing, cluster analysis and development of a procedure for estimation of parameters of relationships in the WP6 UMD simulation model. Findings from the analyses show that country was found to be an important factor in both the car and train driving experiment. Significant effects of the factor workload were also established in many of the events analysed. The conclusion of comparisons between the data collected in the portable and full scale simulators is that the ITERATE portable driving simulator platform is a suitable tool to studying underlying factors controlling driver behaviour at least for the car diving. However, there were differences between the portable and full scale train simulators. These differences have to be considered in later stages of the project. The next step within the ITERATE project is to estimate relevant relationships in the WP6 UMD simulation model based on the findings of the analyses presented in this deliverable. The analyses presented will also be important as inspiration for other studies outside of the present project with the ITERATE driving simulator dataset as an important source of data.

In order to achieve the interim target for road safety it is necessary that compliance of speed limits increases at the road network. VTI has been commissioned by the Swedish Transport Administration to analyse major problems and challenges concerning velocity, and to identify key areas for action.

Through a review of available knowledge about speed, and gain of new knowledge from focus group discussions we found that different types of incentives are needed for both private motorists and professional drivers to hold the speed.

Both education and information are important to motivate the driver to act correctly and create a norm in society that deprecates speed violations. However, this should occur in combination with speed monitoring and technical measures.

Som en del i projektet ”Effektsamband för vägtransportsystemet – kartläggning av användning samt uppdatering av effekter för tätort” har en enkätstudie genomförts. Syftet med enkäten var att kartlägga användning och behov av effektsamband i tätorter med ett speciellt fokus är på Trafikverkets publikationsserie Effektsamband för vägtransportsystemet.

Enkätens målgrupp var personer som arbetar med trafikåtgärder i tätort i kommuner, kommunala bolag, statliga verk eller myndigheter, privata företag och på högskola/universitet. Den omfattande enkäten besvarades av drygt 500 personer, varav vardera ca 40 procent hade sin arbetsgivare i någon kommun eller i privat företag.

A new measure based on comparison of empirical distributions for sub sequences or parallel runs and the full sequence of Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation, is proposed as a criterion of stability or convergence. The measure is also put forward as a loss function when the design, including the proposal function, of a Markov chain is optimised. The comparison of empirical distributions is based on a Kullback-Leibler (KL) type distance over value sets defined by the output data. The singularity problem for such a measure is removed in a simple way.

The leading term in a series expansion of the measure gives an interpretation in terms of the relative uncertainty of cell frequencies measured by their average coefficient of variation. The validity of the leading term is studied by simulation in two analytically tractable cases with Markov dependency and selected acceptance rates. The agreement between the leading term and the KL-measure is close, in particular when the simulations are extensive enough for stable results. Comparisons with established criteria turn out favourably in examples studied.

A new measure based on comparison of empirical distributions for sub sequences or parallel runs and the full sequence of Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations, is proposed as a criterion of stability or convergence. The measure is also put forward as a loss function when the design of a Markov chain is optimized. The comparison is based on a Kullback–Leibler (KL) type distance over value sets defined by the output data.

The leading term in a series expansion gives an interpretation in terms of the relative uncertainty of cell frequencies. The validity of this term is studied by simulation in two analytically tractable cases with Markov dependency. The agreement between the leading term and the KL-measure is close, in particular when the simulations are extensive enough for stable results. Comparisons with established criteria turn out favourably in examples studied.

Stimulant drugs are commonly abused and also used to promote wakefulness, yet their effects on driving performance during sleep deprivation have not been thoroughly researched in experimental studies. The aims were to assess the effects on fundamental driving parameters during simulated driving of two doses of d-amphetamine and further to assess the interaction between d-amphetamine and sleep deprivation. A double-blind, placebo-controlled experiment including 18 healthy male volunteers was conducted. The participants felt more alert when taking a dose of d-amphetamine than when taking placebo, and the effect was stronger for the higher dose. However, the data did not show any evidence that taking d-amphetamine prevented the subjects from becoming successively sleepier during the night. A significant main effect of the dose was found for three out of the five primary indicators where the lower dose led to improved driving. These indicators were crossing-car reaction time, and coherence and delay from a car-following event. Regarding sleep deprivation, a main effect was found for four of the primary indicators and three of the secondary indicators. The results showed overall impaired driving with respect to standard deviation of lateral position and delay in reaction time when the sleep-deprived conditions were compared to the alert condition. We found no interactions between dose and sleep deprivation for any of the performance indicators. Our results suggest that administration of d-amphetamine does not compensate for impairment of driving due to fatigue. The positive effects of 10 mg were not further improved or even sustained when increasing the dose to 40 mg.

Swedish road safety work is based on Vision Zero and designated interim targets to track progress towards its achievement. The current interim target for road safety is to halve the number of fatalities from 266 (the average annual number 20172019) to a maximum of 133 fatalities in 2030. The interim target also specifies that the number of seriously injured on the roads is to be reduced by 25 per cent from a corresponding number.

This report describes and analyses current road safety trends in terms of road safety performance indicators and the numbers of fatalities. The number of seriously injured is not reported, as a new method for non-response compensation of the number of seriously injured is being developed in 2023. In addition to the adopted national interim targets there is also an interim target at the EU level that specifies a halving, by 2030, of the number of fatalities recorded in 2019. 

Det svenska trafiksäkerhetsarbetet utgår från Nollvisionen och etappmål på vägen dit. Det nuvarande etappmålet för vägtrafiken innebär en halvering av antalet omkomna, från 266 (medelvärde 2017­2019), till max 133 omkomna år 2030. Etappmålet innebär också att antalet allvarligt skadade i vägtrafiken ska reduceras med 25 procent utifrån ett motsvarande utgångsvärde.

I denna rapport redovisas och analyseras utvecklingen av säkerheten i vägtrafiken utifrån utpekade indikatorer och antalet omkomna. Antalet allvarligt skadade redovisas inte då en ny metod för bortfallsuppräkning av antalet allvarligt skadade tas fram under 2023. Utöver beslutade nationella etappmål finns även ett etappmål på EU­nivå som innebär en halvering av antalet omkomna till 2030, jämfört med 2019.

Utvecklingen mot trafiksäkerhetsmålen för vägtrafiken år 2020 följs upp genom årliga rapporter. Denna rapport är den femte uppföljningen. I rapporten redovisas och analyseras trafiksäkerhetsutvecklingen under 2012. Liksom tidigare år analyseras utfallet i antalet dödade och skadade samt för ett antal utpekade indikatorer. Rapporten utgör underlag för 2013 års resultatkonferens i Stockholm den 24 april.

An international workshop on safety for powered-two-wheelers (PTWs), Riding in a safe system, was held as a series of virtual meetings 9–23 June 2021. The workshop was co- organized by the International Transport Forum (ITF), the Swedish Transport Administration, the International Motorcycling Federation (FIM), the motorcycle manufacturers associations (IMMA and ACEM), and the Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute (VTI). The workshop was a follow-up of the Third Global Ministerial Conference on Road Safety, held in Stockholm in February 2020, but it also built on a previous workshop in 2008 in Lillehammer and the 2015 ITF research report “Improving Safety for Motorcycle, Scooter and Moped Riders” (OECD/ITF, 2015).

Globally the use of PTWs is an important mode of transportation. Improving PTW safety can have a huge impact on reducing fatalities and injuries in the transport system. The aim of the workshop was to gather experts on PTW safety representing all important stakeholders to discuss the nine recommendations of the Academic Expert Group and their application to motorcyclists’ safety. The main goal was to develop a set of priority actions to improve motorcycling safety for the decade 2021–2030, taking regional aspects into account.

Semi-controlled studies provide a hybrid approach in between controlled experiments and naturalistic driving studies. As in controlled experiments, the researcher can assign participants to groups, select the route and define the tasks, but the participants are given more freedom when it comes to if, when, where and how to perform the tasks. Increased flexibility makes it possible to investigate how drivers use tactical behaviour to accommodate task execution. The disadvantage is decreased control and more complicated analyses.

The main objective of this paper is to discuss how to analyse data obtained in semi-controlled studies.The analysis of data from a semi-controlled study include three types of variables:

• variables that describe the experimental design
• variables that describe the tactical choices of the participants
• operational variables such as speed, lateral position or glance behaviour

To analyse the three types of variables a two-step procedure is suggested. First, the tactical indicators are analysed with regard to the experimental design. Second, the operational indicators are analysed and the tactical indicators are used to divide participants into sub-populations.

The semi-controlled design does not need any new statistical procedures to be developed. It is more important that the analysis conditions on the initial properties and not on structures that happen to occur during the experiment, like where the participant chose to do a certain task.We recommend to use the semi-controlled study method when investigating questions involving adaptive and compensatory behaviour on the tactical level. It is especially useful if causal relationships are of interest, if the data collection should be accelerated in comparison to naturalistic studies, and if certain geographical locations definitely should be included.

Single vehicle accidents are the type of accident that has the largest proportion of fatalities in traffic. About one third of all fatal accidents are single vehicle accidents. The aim of this study is to increase knowledge of how roadside areas should be designed so that the consequences of driving off the road will not be so serious as to cause death or severe injuries. The results are to provide data in formulating future regulations.

This deliverable on data analysis provides guidance and general principles for: - pre-testing to check the usability of the system and the feasibility of the evaluation process, - controlling the consistency of the chain and the precision with different sampling schemes, - modelling the impact for each indicators and for an integrated evaluation including a systemic and multidisciplinary interpretation of the effects, - integrating and controlling the quality of space-time data from various sources (numerical, video, questionnaires), - selecting the appropriate statistical techniques for data processing, PI estimation and hypothesis testing in accordance to the list of indicators and experimental design, - scaling up from experimental data and identified models to population and network level. Experimentalists stress the role and importance of a preliminary field test in FOT. Three main objectives have been defined to make a preliminary diagnosis of usability of the systems and to check the relevance and feasibility of the evaluation process. These preliminary tests are very important for the practical deployment of the FOT as well as for the overall scientific evaluation process.

In today's vehicles, active safety systems are introduced addressing a large variety of safety issues such as providing optimal stability control, braking effect, preventing spin and rollover, as well as collision avoidance, to mention just a few. In this study a literature review was performed in order to establish how the traffic safety performances of active safety systems with focus on Antilock Braking System (ABS) and Electronic Stability Control (ESC) are assessed. The areas covered were statistical evaluation, testing and driver behaviour. The literature review showed that in particular statistical methods, based on odds ratios, had been used in order to evaluate the traffic safety effect. In order to evaluate the effect of ESC in physical testing there are several test methods described in this report. Estimations of driver behaviour effects have been carried out by surveys among vehicle owners. Experiments performed in field or in simulator have also been found in the literature. From EU projects a variety of measures and test methods are available for assessment of driver behavioural effects.

The background for this study is that many Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS) are currently introduced in passenger vehicles aiming at providing increased traffic safety. This provides a need to assess the traffic safety effects from these systems. The question that this report highlights is how these systems are designed and how the effects are evaluated. The review resulted in identification of 300 references of which the most relevant are found in this report. The report contains a description of the background of why and how 20 systems or groups of systems have been developed, in which vehicles they can be found, a short technical description of how they work, publication of traffic safety effects and future development plans. Regarding statistical methods, an overview of how they work and the results when using these methods on ITS are described. In addition, the report contains a summary of ways of assessing safety effects from areas such as food, nuclear power and pharmaceutical industries. The conclusion is that there are currently many different ways of supporting the driver in the task of driving the vehicle. Regarding the impact on traffic safety of these systems it is still an open question which evaluation methods to use.

Geofencing can be used for governing connected vehicles, for instance in terms of speed or use of fuel, within a digital geographic zone. The overall aim of this project was to examine the potential of speed-limiting geofencing with respect to measurable effects on traffic safety, health, and the environment.

The project consisted of a literature review, a test track study, and a traffic simulation study. The literature review aimed to examine studies on effects of geofencing and revealed that studies on speed-limiting geofencing are few. The test track study evaluated the effects of geofencing on a single vehicle. Two scenarios with a relevant application in the real world were chosen, i.e., speed-limiting in connection with a school and a hospital, respectively. Three different driving patterns were used, based on data from real traffic, and speed, pollutant emissions and noise were measured.

The test track study showed that there is a potential for increased traffic safety in these types of traffic environments, especially for pedestrians and cyclists, without negative effects on the environment. The traffic simulation study aimed to estimate the effects of geofencing implemented on a larger scale by simulating a whole vehicle fleet, with various percentages of geofenced vehicles. The hospital scenario was chosen for traffic simulation, and it was concluded that a high percentage of vehicles with geofencing implemented is needed for most vehicles to respect the posted speed limit. In addition, the total effect of geofencing parts of a vehicle fleet might not be a decrease in emissions.

The overall results from the project indicate that geofencing vehicle speed could lead to increased traffic safety without negative consequences for health in terms of pollutant emissions and noise. There is however a need to follow up the effects on a vehicle fleet in real traffic environments.

Speed is one of the most key factor that increases the accident risk and injury severity (Nilsson, 2004). Therefore, speed limits are set to guide to choose the right speed based on the road environment. However, compliance level is in general low which means that many drivers choose to drive faster than the speed limit when traffic condition is not congested. Mannering (2009) points out that there is a general disrespect to keep speed limits worldwide. An increase in the compliance level of taxi drivers could potentially influence the chosen speed of other drivers on the roads. It is therefore important to study and quantify compliance level of taxi drivers.

Public authorities (e.g., police, road administration offices) aim to enforce speed compliance levels on public roads. Speed enforcement campaigns can include police speed control interventions, speed camera surveillance, education campaigns. As a part of this pilot study, police officers plan to meet taxi company representatives to discuss current speed compliance levels an agree on new approaches which can increase compliance levels of taxi drivers

The aim of the study is thus to investigate a new method aiming to increase speed compliance of taxi drivers involving an agreement between the police and taxi representatives.

Six smaller bus companies wanted to improve their safety culture through their cooperative company, to meet new contract requirements and to become proactive. The results showed an improved attitude to speed compliance, even with a tight schedule. Safety culture is a company’s shared attitudes, values and perceptions of safety. The intervention method used in this project is based on the organizational and management level, which makes it more stable over time and changes fundamentally. This study focuses on safety culture as the management's commitment and clear priorities of safety, participation of drivers and increased knowledge and communication. By measuring both attitudes and behavior, we can contribute to more efficient routines and a safer traffic and work environment. 

The intervention method includes repeated group discussions with feedback from attitude surveys and measurements of behavior. The project aimed to develop methods to make measurements of speed compliance, seatbelt use, fuel consumption and injuries/accidents, through systematically collected data from buses in traffic to see the development towards stated goals and improve outcomes through feedback on their own behavior. The process is led and supported by an internal project manager and a researcher who also observes the group meetings, to see if safety culture can be influenced and legal behavior in traffic is promoted through these methods.

Road traffic related death and injury continues to be a major challenge globally. Unsafe road use is particularly evident in low- and middle-income countries while also being a growing concern for private sector organisations. The Safe System approach is recognized internationally as the leading approach to improving road safety and previous work has codified the essential management functions and interventions evident in its successful implementation. Tracking the development of Safe System adoption within the public and private sectors is of interest for several reasons. This paper presents recent development and use of road safety maturity frameworks and discusses the utility of these approaches for road safety practitioners and researchers.

The aim of Deliverable 5.1 of the ITERATE project is to present results of analyses made of the data collected in the ITERATE WP4 driving simulator experiments. The ITERATE WP4 driving simulator experiments consisted of train and car driving experiments carried out on a portable car/train driving simulator platform and in full scale car and train driving simulators. The analyses conducted and presented in this deliverable consist of hypothesis testing, cluster analysis and development of a procedure for estimation of parameters of relationships in the WP6 UMD simulation model. Findings from the analyses show that country was found to be an important factor in both the car and train driving experiment. Significant effects of the factor workload were also established in many of the events analysed. The conclusion of comparisons between the data collected in the portable and full scale simulators is that the ITERATE portable driving simulator platform is a suitable tool to studying underlying factors controlling driver behaviour at least for the car diving. However, there were differences between the portable and full scale train simulators. These differences have to be considered in later stages of the project. The next step within the ITERATE project is to estimate relevant relationships in the WP6 UMD simulation model based on the findings of the analyses presented in this deliverable. The analyses presented will also be important as inspiration for other studies outside of the present project with the ITERATE driving simulator dataset as an important source of data.

VTI compiles here the available knowledge about 34 traffic safety measures that have been utilized in Sweden the past decades. These measures belong to the domains of speed management, alcohol, seat belts, physical infrastructure, road users and vehicles. We group the traffic safety measures based on the reasoning underlying Haddon's matrix. This way of classifying accidents is described and we draw upon its underlying logic to classify the 34 traffic safety measures. The Swedish Road Administration's traffic safety work is guided by the so called Vision Zero. The Ministry of Enterprise, Energy and Communications issued on April 9, 1999, a short program containing eleven topics for increased traffic safety. This program became operational for the Swedish Road Administration and we evaluate therefore the here described 34 traffic safety measures based on the eleven topics in that program. Traffic safety measures in the physical infrastructure such as separation of meeting lanes, roundabouts, and separated strokes for bicycles and pedestrians have to be viewed as the most efficient ones. However, these measures are costly when compared to measures targeting the socio-economic environment such as legislation and enforcement. Therefore the here described measures should be evaluated based on an assessment of the cost-effectiveness of the various measures. Such studies remain to be carried out for a number of traffic safety measurements, but this is beyond the scope of this project.

Bootstrap and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods have received much attention in recent years. We study computer intensive methods that can be used in complex situations where it is not possible to express the likelihood estimates or the posterior analytically. The work is inspired by a set of car crash data from real traffic.

We formulate and develop a model for car crash data that aims to estimate and compare the relative collision safety among different car models. This model works sufficiently well, although complications arise due to a growing vector of incidental parameters. The bootstrap is shown to be a useful tool for studying uncertainties of the estimates of the structural parameters. This model is further extended to include driver characteristics. In a Poisson model with similar, but simpler structure, estimates of the structural parameter in the presence of incidental parameters are studied. The profile likelihood, bootstrap and the delta method are compared for deterministic and random incidental parameters. The same asymptotic properties, up to first order, are seen for deterministic as well as random incidental parameters.

The search for suitable methods that work in complex model structures leads us to consider Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. In the area of MCMC, we consider particularly the question of how and when to claim convergence of the MCMC run in situations where it is only possible to analyse the output values of the run and also how to compare different MCMC modellings. In Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, different proposal functions lead to different realisations. We develop a new convergence diagnostic, based on the Kullback-Leibler distance, which is shown to be particularly useful when comparing different runs. Comparisons with established methods turn out favourably for the KL.

In both models, a Bayesian analysis is made where the posterior distribution is obtained by MCMC methods. The credible intervals are compared to the corresponding confidence intervals from the bootstrap analysis and are shown to give the same qualitative conclusions.

We study the maximum likelihood method together with bootstrap analysis and other uncertainty measures in a situation with both structural and incidental parameters and a rather simple parametric setting. Our purpose is to study methods that can be generalised to and used in more complicated situations of similar nature.

Two different approaches to the incidental parameters are treated, one deterministic and one random. Both approaches are shown to give similar results. When analysing the asymptotic properties of the estimator of the structural parameter, the profile likelihood, the delta method and the bootstrap analysis seem to be equally good in the deterministic case. The bootstrap also works well with a random interpretation of the incidental parameters.