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  • 1. Casini, Michele
    et al.
    Tian, Huidong
    Hansson, Martin
    SMHI, Samhälle och säkerhet.
    Grygiel, Wlodzimierz
    Strods, Guntars
    Statkus, Romas
    Sepp, Elor
    Groehsler, Tomas
    Orio, Alessandro
    Larson, Niklas
    Spatio-temporal dynamics and behavioural ecology of a "demersal" fish population as detected using research survey pelagic trawl catches: the Eastern Baltic Sea cod (Gadus morhua)2019Ingår i: ICES Journal of Marine Science, ISSN 1054-3139, E-ISSN 1095-9289, Vol. 76, nr 6, s. 1591-1600Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
  • 2. Conversi, Alessandra
    et al.
    Dakos, Vasilis
    Gårdmark, Anna
    Ling, Scott
    Folke, Carl
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden.
    Mumby, Peter J.
    Greene, Charles
    Edwards, Martin
    Blenckner, Thorsten
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Casini, Michele
    Pershing, Andrew
    Möllmann, Christian
    A holistic view of marine regime shifts2015Ingår i: Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Biological Sciences, ISSN 0962-8436, E-ISSN 1471-2970, Vol. 370, nr 1659, artikel-id 20130279Artikel, forskningsöversikt (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Understanding marine regime shifts is important not only for ecology but also for developing marine management that assures the provision of ecosystem services to humanity. While regime shift theory is well developed, there is still no common understanding on drivers, mechanisms and characteristic of abrupt changes in real marine ecosystems. Based on contributions to the present theme issue, we highlight some general issues that need to be overcome for developing a more comprehensive understanding of marine ecosystem regime shifts. We find a great divide between benthic reef and pelagic ocean systems in how regime shift theory is linked to observed abrupt changes. Furthermore, we suggest that the long-lasting discussion on the prevalence of top-down trophic or bottom-up physical drivers in inducing regime shifts may be overcome by taking into consideration the synergistic interactions of multiple stressors, and the special characteristics of different ecosystem types. We present a framework for the holistic investigation of marine regime shifts that considers multiple exogenous drivers that interact with endogenous mechanisms to cause abrupt, catastrophic change. This framework takes into account the time-delayed synergies of these stressors, which erode the resilience of the ecosystem and eventually enable the crossing of ecological thresholds. Finally, considering that increased pressures in the marine environment are predicted by the current climate change assessments, in order to avoid major losses of ecosystem services, we suggest that marine management approaches should incorporate knowledge on environmental thresholds and develop tools that consider regime shift dynamics and characteristics. This grand challenge can only be achieved through a holistic view of marine ecosystem dynamics as evidenced by this theme issue.

  • 3.
    Karlson, Agnes M. L.
    et al.
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för ekologi, miljö och botanik. Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholms universitets Östersjöcentrum.
    Gorokhova, Elena
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för miljövetenskap och analytisk kemi.
    Gårdmark, Anna
    Pekcan-Hekim, Zeynep
    Casini, Michele
    Albertsson, Jan
    Sundelin, Brita
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för miljövetenskap och analytisk kemi.
    Karlsson, Olle
    Bergström, Lena
    Linking consumer physiological status to food-web structure and prey food value in the Baltic Sea2020Ingår i: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, E-ISSN 1654-7209, Vol. 49, nr 2, s. 391-406Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Declining physiological status in marine top consumers has been observed worldwide. We investigate changes in the physiological status and population/community traits of six consumer species/groups in the Baltic Sea (1993-2014), spanning four trophic levels and using metrics currently operational or proposed as indicators of food-web status. We ask whether the physiological status of consumers can be explained by food-web structure and prey food value. This was tested using partial least square regressions with status metrics for gray seal, cod, herring, sprat and the benthic predatory isopod Saduria as response variables, and abundance and food value of their prey, abundance of competitors and predators as predictors. We find evidence that the physiological status of cod, herring and sprat is influenced by competition, predation, and prey availability; herring and sprat status also by prey size. Our study highlights the need for management approaches that account for species interactions across multiple trophic levels.

  • 4. Karlson, Agnes M. L.
    et al.
    Gorokhova, Elena
    Gårdmark, Anna
    Pekcan-Hekim, Zeynep
    Casini, Michele
    Albertsson, Jan
    Umeå universitet, Teknisk-naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Umeå marina forskningscentrum (UMF).
    Sundelin, Brita
    Karlsson, Olle
    Bergström, Lena
    Linking consumer physiological status to food-web structure and prey food value in the Baltic Sea2020Ingår i: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, E-ISSN 1654-7209, Vol. 49, nr 2, s. 391-406Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Declining physiological status in marine top consumers has been observed worldwide. We investigate changes in the physiological status and population/community traits of six consumer species/groups in the Baltic Sea (1993-2014), spanning four trophic levels and using metrics currently operational or proposed as indicators of food-web status. We ask whether the physiological status of consumers can be explained by food-web structure and prey food value. This was tested using partial least square regressions with status metrics for gray seal, cod, herring, sprat and the benthic predatory isopod Saduria as response variables, and abundance and food value of their prey, abundance of competitors and predators as predictors. We find evidence that the physiological status of cod, herring and sprat is influenced by competition, predation, and prey availability; herring and sprat status also by prey size. Our study highlights the need for management approaches that account for species interactions across multiple trophic levels.

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  • 5.
    Majaneva, Sanna
    et al.
    Linnéuniversitetet, Fakulteten för Hälso- och livsvetenskap (FHL), Institutionen för biologi och miljö (BOM). UiT The Arctic University of Norway, Norway;Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Norway.
    Fridolfsson, Emil
    Linnéuniversitetet, Fakulteten för Hälso- och livsvetenskap (FHL), Institutionen för biologi och miljö (BOM).
    Casini, Michele
    Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Sweden.
    Legrand, Catherine
    Linnéuniversitetet, Fakulteten för Hälso- och livsvetenskap (FHL), Institutionen för biologi och miljö (BOM).
    Lindehoff, Elin
    Linnéuniversitetet, Fakulteten för Hälso- och livsvetenskap (FHL), Institutionen för biologi och miljö (BOM).
    Margonski, Piotr
    National Marine Fisheries Research Institute, Poland.
    Majaneva, Markus
    Linnéuniversitetet, Fakulteten för Hälso- och livsvetenskap (FHL), Institutionen för biologi och miljö (BOM). Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Norway.
    Nilsson, Jonas
    Linnéuniversitetet, Fakulteten för Hälso- och livsvetenskap (FHL), Institutionen för biologi och miljö (BOM).
    Rubene, Gunta
    Institute of Food Safety, Animal Health and Environment BIOR, Latvia .
    Wasmund, Norbert
    Leibniz-Institute for Baltic Sea Research, Germany.
    Hylander, Samuel
    Linnéuniversitetet, Fakulteten för Hälso- och livsvetenskap (FHL), Institutionen för biologi och miljö (BOM).
    Deficiency syndromes in top predators associated with large-scale changes in the Baltic Sea ecosystem2020Ingår i: PLoS ONE, E-ISSN 1932-6203, Vol. 15, nr 1, artikel-id e0227714Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Vitamin B1 (thiamin) deficiency is an issue periodically affecting a wide range of taxa worldwide. In aquatic pelagic systems, thiamin is mainly produced by bacteria and phytoplankton and is transferred to fish and birds via zooplankton, but there is no general consensus on when or why this transfer is disrupted. We focus on the occurrence in salmon (Salmo salar) of a thiamin deficiency syndrome (M74), the incidence of which is highly correlated among populations derived from different spawning rivers. Here, we show that M74 in salmon is associated with certain large-scale abiotic changes in the main common feeding area of salmon in the southern Baltic Sea. Years with high M74 incidence were characterized by stagnant periods with relatively low salinity and phosphate and silicate concentrations but high total nitrogen. Consequently, there were major changes in phytoplankton and zooplankton, with, e.g., increased abundances of Cryptophyceae, Dinophyceae, Diatomophyceae and Euglenophyceae and Acartia spp. during high M74 incidence years. The prey fish communities also had increased stocks of both herring and sprat in these years. Overall, this suggests important changes in the entire food web structure and nutritional pathways in the common feeding period during high M74 incidence years. Previous research has emphasized the importance of the abundance of planktivorous fish for the occurrence of M74. By using this 27-year time series, we expand this analysis to the entire ecosystem and discuss potential mechanisms inducing thiamin deficiency in salmon.

  • 6.
    Norrström, Niclas
    et al.
    Högskolan i Skövde, Institutionen för biovetenskap. Högskolan i Skövde, Forskningscentrum för Systembiologi.
    Casini, Michele
    Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Department of Aquatic Resources, Institute of Marine Research, Lysekil, Sweden.
    Holmgren, Noél M. A.
    Högskolan i Skövde, Institutionen för biovetenskap. Högskolan i Skövde, Forskningscentrum för Systembiologi.
    Nash equilibrium can resolve conflicting maximum sustainable yields in multi-species fisheries management2017Ingår i: ICES Journal of Marine Science, ISSN 1054-3139, E-ISSN 1095-9289, Vol. 74, nr 1, s. 78-90Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    The current fisheries management goals set by the European Commission states that fish stocks should be harvested to deliver maximum sustainable yields (MSY) and simultaneously, management should take ecosystem considerations into account. This creates unsolved trade-offs for the management of the stocks. We suggest a definition of a multi-species-MSY (MS-MSY) where no alternative fishing mortality (F) can increase yield (long term) for any ecologically interacting stock, given that the other stocks are fished at constant efforts (Fs). Such a MS-MSY can be solved through the game theoretic concept of a Nash equilibrium and here we explore two solutions to this conflict in the Baltic Sea. We maximize the sustainable yield of each stock under two constraints: first, we harvest the other stocks at a fixed F (FNE); second, we keep the spawning stock biomasses of the other stocks fixed [biomass Nash equilibrium (BNE)]. As a case study, we have developed a multi-species interaction stochastic operative model (MSI-SOM), which contains a SOM for each of the three dominant species of the Baltic Sea, the predator cod (Gadus morhua), and its prey herring (Clupea harengus), and sprat (Sprattus sprattus). For our Baltic Sea case, MS-MSYs exist under both the FNE and the BNE, but there is no guarantee that point solutions exists. We found that the prey species’ spawning stock biomasses are additive in the cod growth function, which allowed for a point solution in BNE. In the FNE, the herring MSY was found to be relatively insensitive to the other species’ fishing mortalities (F), which facilitated a point solution. The MSY targets of the BNE and the FNE differ slightly where the BNE gives higher predator yields and lower prey yields.

  • 7. Olsson, Jens
    et al.
    Jakubaviciute, Egle
    Kaljuste, Olavi
    Larsson, Niklas
    Bergström, Ulf
    Casini, Michele
    Cardinale, Massimiliano
    Hjelm, Joakim
    Byström, Pär
    Umeå universitet, Teknisk-naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för ekologi, miljö och geovetenskap.
    The first large-scale assessment of three-spined stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus) biomass and spatial distribution in the Baltic Sea2019Ingår i: ICES Journal of Marine Science, ISSN 1054-3139, E-ISSN 1095-9289, Vol. 76, nr 6, s. 1653-1665Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Declines in predatory fish in combination with the impact of climate change and eutrophication have caused planktivores, including three-spined stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus), to increase dramatically in parts of the Baltic Sea. Resulting impacts of stickleback on coastal and offshore foodwebs have been observed, highlighting the need for increased knowledge on its population characteristics. In this article, we quantify abundance, biomass, size structure, and spatial distribution of stickleback using data from the Swedish and Finnish parts of the Baltic International Acoustic Survey (BIAS) during 2001-2014. Two alternative methods for biomass estimation suggest an increase in biomass of stickleback in the Baltic Proper, stable or increasing mean size over time, and larger individuals toward the north. The highest abundance was found in the central parts of the Baltic Proper and Bothnian Sea. The proportion of stickleback biomass in the total planktivore biomass increased from 4 to 10% in the Baltic Proper and averaged 6% of the total planktivore biomass in the Bothnian Sea. In some years, however, stickleback biomass has ranged from half to almost twice that of sprat (Sprattus sprattus) in both basins. Given the recent population expansion of stickleback and its potential role in the ecosystem, we recommend that stickleback should be considered in future monitoring programmes and in fisheries and environmental management of the Baltic Sea.

  • 8.
    Otto, Saskia A.
    et al.
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholm Resilience Centre. University of Hamburg, Germany.
    Kadin, Martina
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Casini, Michele
    Torres, Maria A.
    Blenckner, Thorsten
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    A quantitative framework for selecting and validating food web indicators2018Ingår i: Ecological Indicators, ISSN 1470-160X, E-ISSN 1872-7034, Vol. 84, s. 619-631Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Finding suitable state indicators is challenging and cumbersome in stochastic and complex ecological systems. Typically, a great focus is given to criteria such as data availability, scientific basis, or measurability. Features associated with the indicator's performance such as sensitivity or robustness are often neglected due to the lack of quantitative validation tools. In this paper, we present a simple but flexible framework for selecting and validating the performance of food web indicators. In specific, we suggest a 7-step process in which indicator performances at a regional scale are quantified and visualized allowing for the selection of complementary indicator suites. We demonstrate its application by comparing the performance of pelagic food web indicators for three basins of the Baltic Sea and by assessing the food web status based on selected indicator suites. Our analysis sheds light on spatial differences in indicator performances with respect to direct and indirect pressures, the role of non-linearity and non-additivity in pressure responses, as well as relationships between indicators caused by species interactions. Moreover, our results suggest that the present food web states in the Bornholm and Gotland basins of the Baltic Sea deviate distinctly from an earlier reference period. We advocate the use of our quantitative framework as decision-support tool for selecting suites of complementary indicators under given management schemes such as the EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive.

  • 9. Reusch, Thorsten B. H.
    et al.
    Dierking, Jan
    Andersson, Helen C.
    Bonsdorff, Erik
    Carstensen, Jacob
    Casini, Michele
    Czajkowski, Mikolaj
    Hasler, Berit
    Hinsby, Klaus
    Hyytiäinen, Kari
    Johannesson, Kerstin
    Jomaa, Seifeddine
    Jormalainen, Veijo
    Kuosa, Harri
    Kurland, Sara
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Zoologiska institutionen.
    Laikre, Linda
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Zoologiska institutionen.
    MacKenzie, Brian R.
    Margonski, Piotr
    Melzner, Frank
    Oesterwind, Daniel
    Ojaveer, Henn
    Refsgaard, Jens Christian
    Sandström, Annica
    Schwarz, Gerald
    Tonderski, Karin
    Winder, Monika
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för ekologi, miljö och botanik.
    Zandersen, Marianne
    The Baltic Sea as a time machine for the future coastal ocean2018Ingår i: Science Advances, ISSN 0036-8156, E-ISSN 2375-2548, Vol. 4, nr 5, artikel-id eaar8195Artikel, forskningsöversikt (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Coastal global oceans are expected to undergo drastic changes driven by climate change and increasing anthropogenic pressures in coming decades. Predicting specific future conditions and assessing the best management strategies to maintain ecosystem integrity and sustainable resource use are difficult, because of multiple interacting pressures, uncertain projections, and a lack of test cases for management. We argue that the Baltic Sea can serve as a time machine to study consequences and mitigation of future coastal perturbations, due to its unique combination of an early history of multistressor disturbance and ecosystem deterioration and early implementation of cross-border environmental management to address these problems. The Baltic Sea also stands out in providing a strong scientific foundation and accessibility to long-term data series that provide a unique opportunity to assess the efficacy of management actions to address the breakdown of ecosystem functions. Trend reversals such as the return of top predators, recovering fish stocks, and reduced input of nutrient and harmful substances could be achieved only by implementing an international, cooperative governance structure transcending its complex multistate policy setting, with integrated management of watershed and sea. The Baltic Sea also demonstrates how rapidly progressing global pressures, particularly warming of Baltic waters and the surrounding catchment area, can offset the efficacy of current management approaches. This situation calls for management that is (i) conservative to provide a buffer against regionally unmanageable global perturbations, (ii) adaptive to react to new management challenges, and, ultimately, (iii) multisectorial and integrative to address conflicts associated with economic trade-offs.

  • 10. Reusch, Thorsten B. H.
    et al.
    Dierking, Jan
    Andersson, Helén
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    Bonsdorff, Erik
    Carstensen, Jacob
    Casini, Michele
    Czajkowski, Mikolaj
    Hasler, Berit
    Hinsby, Klaus
    Hyytiainen, Kari
    Johannesson, Kerstin
    Jomaa, Seifeddine
    Jormalainen, Veijo
    Kuosa, Harri
    Kurland, Sara
    Laikre, Linda
    MacKenzie, Brian R.
    Margonski, Piotr
    Melzner, Frank
    Oesterwind, Daniel
    Ojaveer, Henn
    Refsgaard, Jens Christian
    Sandstrom, Annica
    Schwarz, Gerald
    Tonderski, Karin
    Winder, Monika
    Zandersen, Marianne
    The Baltic Sea as a time machine for the future coastal ocean2018Ingår i: Science Advances, E-ISSN 2375-2548, Vol. 4, nr 5, artikel-id eaar8195Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
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