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  • 1. Jansson, Torbjörn
    et al.
    Andersen, Hans E.
    Gustafsson, Bo G.
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholms universitets Östersjöcentrum. University of Helsinki, Finland.
    Hasler, Berit
    Höglind, Lisa
    Choi, Hyungsik
    Baltic Sea eutrophication status is not improved by the first pillar of the European Union Common Agricultural Policy2019Ingår i: Regional Environmental Change, ISSN 1436-3798, E-ISSN 1436-378X, Vol. 19, nr 8, s. 2465-2476Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Agriculture is an important source of nitrogen and phosphorous loads to the Baltic Sea. We study how the European Union's (EU) Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), and in particular how its first pillar, containing most of the budget and the decoupled farm payments, affects eutrophication. To aid our study, we use three simulation models, covering the agricultural sector in the EU, a hydrological nutrient flow model and a model of eutrophication in the Baltic Sea. We compute changes in key eutrophication indicators in a business-as-usual baseline and in a hypothetical situation where the first pillar of the CAP, containing the direct payments, greening and accompanying measures, is not present. Comparing the outcomes, we find that in the scenario without the first pillar, production and agricultural land use is lower, while yields and fertiliser use per hectare are higher, causing less nitrogen and phosphorous loads (0.5 to 4% depending on the basin) and less eutrophication in the Baltic Sea as net effect. We therefore conclude that the policies of the first pillar of the CAP contribute to increased eutrophication in the Baltic Sea.

  • 2. Jansson, Torbjörn
    et al.
    Andersen, Hans Estrup
    Hasler, Berit
    Höglind, Lisa
    Gustafsson, Bo G.
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholms universitets Östersjöcentrum. University of Helsinki, Finland.
    Can investments in manure technology reduce nutrient leakage to the Baltic Sea?2019Ingår i: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, E-ISSN 1654-7209, Vol. 48, nr 11, s. 1264-1277Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    In this study, quantitative models of the agricultural sector and nutrient transport and cycling are used to analyse the impacts in the Baltic Sea of replacing the current Greening measures of the EU's Common Agricultural Policy with a package of investments in manure handling. The investments aim at improving nutrient utilization and reducing nitrogen leaching, based on the assumption that lagging farms and regions can catch up with observed good practice. Our results indicate that such investments could reduce nitrogen surpluses in agriculture by 18% and nitrogen concentrations in the Baltic Sea by 1 to 9% depending on the basin. The Greening measures, in contrast, are found to actually increase nitrogen leaching.

  • 3. Reusch, Thorsten B. H.
    et al.
    Dierking, Jan
    Andersson, Helen C.
    Bonsdorff, Erik
    Carstensen, Jacob
    Casini, Michele
    Czajkowski, Mikolaj
    Hasler, Berit
    Hinsby, Klaus
    Hyytiäinen, Kari
    Johannesson, Kerstin
    Jomaa, Seifeddine
    Jormalainen, Veijo
    Kuosa, Harri
    Kurland, Sara
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Zoologiska institutionen.
    Laikre, Linda
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Zoologiska institutionen.
    MacKenzie, Brian R.
    Margonski, Piotr
    Melzner, Frank
    Oesterwind, Daniel
    Ojaveer, Henn
    Refsgaard, Jens Christian
    Sandström, Annica
    Schwarz, Gerald
    Tonderski, Karin
    Winder, Monika
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för ekologi, miljö och botanik.
    Zandersen, Marianne
    The Baltic Sea as a time machine for the future coastal ocean2018Ingår i: Science Advances, ISSN 0036-8156, E-ISSN 2375-2548, Vol. 4, nr 5, artikel-id eaar8195Artikel, forskningsöversikt (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Coastal global oceans are expected to undergo drastic changes driven by climate change and increasing anthropogenic pressures in coming decades. Predicting specific future conditions and assessing the best management strategies to maintain ecosystem integrity and sustainable resource use are difficult, because of multiple interacting pressures, uncertain projections, and a lack of test cases for management. We argue that the Baltic Sea can serve as a time machine to study consequences and mitigation of future coastal perturbations, due to its unique combination of an early history of multistressor disturbance and ecosystem deterioration and early implementation of cross-border environmental management to address these problems. The Baltic Sea also stands out in providing a strong scientific foundation and accessibility to long-term data series that provide a unique opportunity to assess the efficacy of management actions to address the breakdown of ecosystem functions. Trend reversals such as the return of top predators, recovering fish stocks, and reduced input of nutrient and harmful substances could be achieved only by implementing an international, cooperative governance structure transcending its complex multistate policy setting, with integrated management of watershed and sea. The Baltic Sea also demonstrates how rapidly progressing global pressures, particularly warming of Baltic waters and the surrounding catchment area, can offset the efficacy of current management approaches. This situation calls for management that is (i) conservative to provide a buffer against regionally unmanageable global perturbations, (ii) adaptive to react to new management challenges, and, ultimately, (iii) multisectorial and integrative to address conflicts associated with economic trade-offs.

  • 4.
    Wulff, Fredrik
    et al.
    Stockholm University.
    Humborg, Christoph
    Stockholm University.
    Andersen, Hans Estrup
    Aarhus University, Silkeborg, Denmark.
    Blicher-Mathiesen, Gitte
    Aarhus University, Silkeborg, Denmark.
    Czajkowski, Mikolaj
    Universty of Warsaw, Warsaw, Poland.
    Elofsson, Katarina
    Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences.
    Fonnesbech-Wulff, Anders
    Aarhus University, Roskilde, Denmark.
    Hasler, Berit
    Aarhus University, Roskilde, Denmark.
    Hong, Bongghi
    Cornell University, l, Ithaca, NY, USA.
    Jansons, Viesturs
    Latvia University of Agriculture, Jelgava, Latvia.
    Morth, Carl-Magnus
    Stockholm University.
    Smart, James C. R.
    Griffith University, South Brisbane, Australia.
    Smedberg, Erik
    Stockholm University.
    Stalnacke, Per
    Norwegian Institute for Agricultural and Environmental Research (Bioforsk), Ås, Norway.
    Swaney, Dennis P.
    Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, USA.
    Thodsen, Hans
    Aarhus University, Silkeborg, Denmark.
    Was, Adam
    Warsaw University of Life Sciences, Warsaw, Poland.
    Zylicz, Tomasz
    University of Warsaw, Warsaw, Poland.
    Reduction of Baltic Sea Nutrient Inputs and Allocation of Abatement Costs Within the Baltic Sea Catchment2014Ingår i: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, E-ISSN 1654-7209, Vol. 43, nr 1, s. 11-25Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    The Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP) requires tools to simulate effects and costs of various nutrient abatement strategies. Hierarchically connected databases and models of the entire catchment have been created to allow decision makers to view scenarios via the decision support system NEST. Increased intensity in agriculture in transient countries would result in increased nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea, particularly from Poland, the Baltic States, and Russia. Nutrient retentions are high, which means that the nutrient reduction goals of 135 000 tons N and 15 000 tons P, as formulated in the BSAP from 2007, correspond to a reduction in nutrient loadings to watersheds by 675 000 tons N and 158 000 tons P. A cost-minimization model was used to allocate nutrient reductions to measures and countries where the costs for reducing loads are low. The minimum annual cost to meet BSAP basin targets is estimated to 4.7 billion a,not sign.

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