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  • 1. Abate, M.
    et al.
    De Jong, Gerard
    KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Centra, Centrum för transportstudier, CTS.
    The optimal shipment size and truck size choice - The allocation of trucks across hauls2014Ingår i: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 59, s. 262-277Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    There has been a growing interest in understanding how firms allocate their trucks across hauls, and how this allocation changes under various economic environments. This study investigates how variations in route/haul, carrier and vehicle characteristics affect the optimal vehicle size choice and the associated choice of shipment size. We show that the two choices are derived from the same optimization problem. There can be a continuum of shipment sizes, but decision-makers in freight transport have to choose from a limited number of vehicle alternatives. Therefore, we use a discrete-continuous econometric model where shipment size is modeled as a continuous variable, and vehicle size/type choice as a discrete variable. The results indicate that when faced with higher demand, and during longer trips firms are more likely to use heavier vehicles and ship in larger quantities which suggest that firms are realizing economies of scale and economies of distance. The study also discusses the effect of vehicle operating cost on the vehicle selection process and its policy implications.

  • 2.
    Abate, Megersa
    Statens väg- och transportforskningsinstitut, Samhälle, miljö och transporter, SAMT, Transportekonomi, TEK.
    Economic effects of air transport market liberalization in Africa2016Ingår i: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 92, s. 326-337Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Although the aviation industry is increasingly becoming important for Africa's economic development and integration, the ability of airlines to access foreign markets remains hindered by restrictive regulatory policies. Attempts have been made to fully liberalize the intra-African air transport market. Except for general assertions about the merits/demerits of liberalization, our empirical understanding of the welfare effects of such polices in Africa remains rudimentary. This study empirically measures the economic effects of air transport liberalization, mainly on two supply side variables: fare and service quality, measured as departure frequency. The empirical models evaluate how air fares and departure frequency respond to measures of openness in air services agreements, while controlling for other determinants. The results show up to 40% increase in departure frequency in routes that experienced some type of liberalization compared to those governed by restrictive bilateral air service agreements. Furthermore, there is a relatively larger increase in departure frequency in routes which experienced partial liberalization compared to fully liberalized ones. This can be explained by the diminishing marginal effect of progressive liberalization on departure frequency. While the effect of liberalization is substantial in improving service quality, there is no evidence of its fare reducing effect.

  • 3.
    Abate, Megersa
    et al.
    Statens väg- och transportforskningsinstitut, Samhälle, miljö och transporter, SAMT, Transportekonomi Stockholm, TEK-S.
    De Jong, Gerard
    University of Leeds.
    The optimal shipment size and truck size choice: The allocation of trucks across hauls2014Ingår i: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 59, s. 262-277Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    There has been a growing interest in understanding how firms allocate their trucks across hauls, and how this allocation changes under various economic environments. This study investigates how variations in route/haul, carrier and vehicle characteristics affect the optimal vehicle size choice and the associated choice of shipment size. We show that the two choices are derived from the same optimization problem. There can be a continuum of shipment sizes, but decision-makers in freight transport have to choose from a limited number of vehicle alternatives. Therefore, we use a discrete-continuous econometric model where shipment size is modeled as a continuous variable, and vehicle size/type choice as a discrete variable. The results indicate that when faced with higher demand, and during longer trips firms are more likely to use heavier vehicles and ship in larger quantities which suggest that firms are realizing economies of scale and economies of distance. The study also discusses the effect of vehicle operating cost on the vehicle selection process and its policy implications.

  • 4.
    Abenoza, Roberto F.
    et al.
    KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Samhällsplanering och miljö.
    Ettema, Dick F.
    Univ Utrecht, Fac Geosci, 7,POB 80115, NL-3508 TC Utrecht, Netherlands..
    Susilo, Yusak O.
    KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Samhällsplanering och miljö.
    Do accessibility, vulnerability, opportunity, and travel characteristics have uniform impacts on the traveler's experience?2018Ingår i: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 114, s. 38-51Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
  • 5.
    Abenoza, Roberto F.
    et al.
    KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Samhällsplanering och miljö.
    Liu, C.
    Cats, Oded
    KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Byggvetenskap. Delft University of Technology, Netherlands.
    Susilo, Yusak
    KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Samhällsplanering och miljö.
    What is the role of weather, built-environment and accessibility geographical characteristics in influencing travelers’ experience?2019Ingår i: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 122, s. 34-50Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    We examine the effect of weather, accessibility and built-environment characteristics on overall travel experience as well as the experience with the latest trips. These are factors that are often disregarded in the travel satisfaction literature even though they are believed to largely influence the first mile of the door-to-door trip. This study fills a research gap in investigating all these factors by using, amongst other, a relatively large travel satisfaction survey from years 2009 to 2015 and by focusing on urban and peri-urban geographical contexts, the city and county of Stockholm (Sweden), respectively. The ordered logit model results show that county dwellers living close to a metro station and in well linked-to-all areas report higher overall travel satisfaction evaluations. In addition, precipitation and ground covered with snow have a negative influence on travel satisfaction. Our findings indicate that built-environment characteristics exert a rather weak influence on the travel experience, especially in the peri-urban context. However, some aspects such as living in areas with medium densities, low income and with high safety perceptions around public transport stations are associated with higher satisfaction levels. In turn, areas with single land uses are found to have lower travel satisfactions. These results are important for public transport planners and designers in devising measures to prevent and mitigate the negative outcome of some weather conditions and to conceive better designed transit oriented developments.

  • 6.
    Abenoza, Roberto F.
    et al.
    KTH.
    Liu, Chengxi
    Statens väg- och transportforskningsinstitut, Samhälle, miljö och transporter, SAMT, Trafikanalys och logistik, TAL.
    Cats, Oded
    KTH.
    Susilo, Yusak O.
    KTH.
    What is the role of weather, built-environment and accessibility geographical characteristics in influencing travelers’ experience?2019Ingår i: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 122, s. 34-50Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    We examine the effect of weather, accessibility and built-environment characteristics on overall travel experience as well as the experience with the latest trips. These are factors that are often disregarded in the travel satisfaction literature even though they are believed to largely influence the first mile of the door-to-door trip. This study fills a research gap in investigating all these factors by using, amongst other, a relatively large travel satisfaction survey from years 2009 to 2015 and by focusing on urban and peri-urban geographical contexts, the city and county of Stockholm (Sweden), respectively. The ordered logit model results show that county dwellers living close to a metro station and in well linked-to-all areas report higher overall travel satisfaction evaluations. In addition, precipitation and ground covered with snow have a negative influence on travel satisfaction. Our findings indicate that built-environment characteristics exert a rather weak influence on the travel experience, especially in the peri-urban context. However, some aspects such as living in areas with medium densities, low income and with high safety perceptions around public transport stations are associated with higher satisfaction levels. In turn, areas with single land uses are found to have lower travel satisfactions. These results are important for public transport planners and designers in devising measures to prevent and mitigate the negative outcome of some weather conditions and to conceive better designed transit oriented developments.

  • 7.
    Ahmad Termida, Nursitihazlin
    et al.
    KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Transportvetenskap, Transportplanering, ekonomi och teknik.
    Susilo, Yusak O.
    KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Transportvetenskap, Transportplanering, ekonomi och teknik.
    Franklin, Joel P.
    KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Transportvetenskap, Transportplanering, ekonomi och teknik.
    Observing dynamic behavioural responses due to the extension of a tram line by using panel survey2016Ingår i: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 86, s. 78-95Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Using a four-wave panel survey of individuals' trips and psychological attributes collected among residents along a new tram line extension in the city of Stockholm, Sweden, this study aims to investigate factors that determine the individuals' learning and decision-making processes in using a new transport option. This includes investigating which group of travellers have used the new tram extension earlier than others, and integrated the tram extension as a part of their daily travel patterns. This paper also describes the design and construction of the four-wave panel data collection, which was collected from two weeks before and up to seven months after the opening of the new option. Descriptive analysis shows that within a seven-month period, 79% of the respondents tried the new tram extension but only 14.9% of them adopted the new option as their daily travel mode. During the observed period, about 49.3% of the respondents migrated between travel modes for non-discretionary trips. Further multivariate analysis shows that middle-income travellers and travellers who owned car(s) used the new tram extension earlier than others. The effect of past experience on the current use of the tram extension on a day-to-day basis was also examined by using a mixed logit model with panel data. The purpose of the model is to examine whether individuals' daily experiences with the new tram extension that result from repeated previous choices would affect their decisions to maintain using the new option in subsequent waves.

  • 8.
    Ait Ali, Abderrahman
    et al.
    Linköpings universitet, Institutionen för teknik och naturvetenskap, Kommunikations- och transportsystem. Linköpings universitet, Tekniska fakulteten. VTI.
    Warg, Jennifer
    KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, Sweden.
    Eliasson, Jonas
    Linköpings universitet, Institutionen för teknik och naturvetenskap, Kommunikations- och transportsystem. Linköpings universitet, Tekniska fakulteten.
    Pricing commercial train path requests based on societal costs2020Ingår i: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 132, s. 452-464Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    On deregulated railway markets, efficient capacity allocation is important. We study the case where commercial trains and publicly controlled traffic (“commuter trains”) use the same railway infrastructure and hence compete for capacity. We develop a method that can be used by an infrastructure manager trying to allocate capacity in a socially efficient way. The method calculates the loss of societal benefits incurred by changing the commuter train timetable to accommodate a commercial train path request, and based on this calculates a reservation price for the train path request. If the commercial operator’s willingness-to-pay for the train path exceeds the loss of societal benefits, its request is approved. The calculation of these benefits takes into account changes in commuter train passengers’ travel times, waiting times, transfers and crowding, and changes in operating costs for the commuter train operator(s). The method is implemented in a microscopic simulation program, which makes it possible to test the robustness and feasibility of timetable alternatives. We show that the method is possible to apply in practice by demonstrating it in a case study from Stockholm, illustrating the magnitudes of the resulting commercial train path prices. We conclude that marginal societal costs of railway capacity in Stockholm are considerably higher than the current track access charges.

  • 9.
    Andersson, Mats
    et al.
    Statens väg- och transportforskningsinstitut, Samhälle, miljö och transporter, SAMT, Transportekonomi, TEK.
    Björklund, Gunilla
    Statens väg- och transportforskningsinstitut, Samhälle, miljö och transporter, SAMT, Transportekonomi, TEK.
    Haraldsson, Mattias
    Statens väg- och transportforskningsinstitut, Samhälle, miljö och transporter, SAMT, Transportekonomi, TEK.
    Marginal railway track renewal costs: A survival data approach2016Ingår i: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 87, s. 68-77Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    In this paper, renewal costs for railway tracks are investigated using survival analysis. The purpose is to derive the effect from increased traffic volumes on rail renewal cycle lengths and to calculate associated marginal costs. A flow sample of censored data containing almost 1300 observations on the Swedish main railway network is used. We specify Weibull regression models, and estimate deterioration elasticities for total tonnage as well as for passenger and freight tonnages separately. Marginal costs are calculated as a change in present values of renewal costs from premature renewal following increased traffic volumes. The marginal cost for total tonnage is estimated to approximately SEK 0.002 per gross ton kilometre.

  • 10.
    Andersson, Matts
    et al.
    KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Transportvetenskap. WSP Analysis & Strategy, Sweden.
    Brundell-Freij, K.
    Eliasson, Jonas
    KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Transportvetenskap, Transportplanering, ekonomi och teknik.
    Validation of aggregate reference forecasts for passenger transport2017Ingår i: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 96, s. 101-118Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    We have compared Swedish national forecasts for passenger transport produced from 1975 to 2009 with the actual outcomes, and we found substantial differences between forecasts of passenger kilometers by mode and actual outcomes. In forecasts produced since the early 1990 s, road and air traffic growth rates have generally been overpredicted. Aggregate railway growth has been fairly accurate, but commercial long-distance railway growth has been overpredicted, and the growth of subsidized intra-regional railway travel has been underpredicted (following vast unanticipated supply increases). Focusing on car traffic forecasts, we show that a very large share of forecast errors can be explained by input variables turning out to be different than what was assumed in the forecasts. Even the original forecasts are much closer to actual outcomes than simple trendlines would have been, and once the input assumptions are corrected, the forecasts vastly outperform simple trendlines. The potential problems of using cross-sectional models for forecasting intertemporal changes thus seem to be limited. This tentative conclusion is also supported by the finding that elasticities from the cross-sectional models are consistent with those from a time-series model.

  • 11.
    Antonson, Hans
    Statens väg- och transportforskningsinstitut, Samhälle, miljö och transporter, SAMT, Mobilitet, aktörer och planering, MAP.
    Public participation and written submissions: A transport infrastructure planning case study2014Ingår i: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 70, s. 59-66Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Written submissions or comments as a response on an EIS (Environmental Impact Statement) rank as one of the most common forms of public participation. Within public participation research there appears to be an international dearth of knowledge concerning such written submissions. The possible impact of such responses on an EIS is - with few exceptions - seldom put in focus. The aim in the present brief communication is to study one aspect of public participation within transport infrastructure planning, namely the role of written submissions sent to the applicant by individuals, Non-governmental organisations, companies and authorities. By comparing 34 written submissions with road planning documents (including EIS) the impact of the public views has been analysed in a south Swedish case study. At a time when the new Environmental Code only had been in force for less than one year, it does not appear as if the Road Administration's regional office accepted most of the written submissions just to show that the new regulation concerning participation had a direct impact on the planning. Sweden's long tradition of public access to official documents may explain why written submissions as one aspect of public participation worked well in the E18 highway planning process, because civil servants have long been taught to promptly furnish information and guidance, as well as to giving advice and other assistance to individuals in matters concerning an authority's activity. This study shows, then, that - if properly managed by the developer's street-level staff - the use of written submissions may improve the EIS from a stakeholder perspective and also make the stakeholders feel they are being taken seriously.

  • 12.
    Asplund, Disa
    et al.
    Statens väg- och transportforskningsinstitut, Samhälle, miljö och transporter, SAMT, Transportekonomi, TEK. Örebro Universitet.
    Eliasson, Jonas
    Kungliga Tekniska Högskolan.
    Does uncertainty make cost-benefit analyses pointless?2016Ingår i: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 92, s. 195-205Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Cost-benefit analysis (CBA) is widely used in public decision making on infrastructure investments. However, the demand forecasts, cost estimates, benefit valuations and effect assessments that are conducted as part of CBAs are all subject to various degrees of uncertainty. The question is to what extent CBAs, given such uncertainties, are still useful as a way to prioritize between infrastructure investments, or put differently, how robust the policy conclusions of CBA are with respect to uncertainties. Using simulations based on real data on national infrastructure plans in Sweden and Norway, we study how investment selection and total realized benefits change when decisions are based on CBA assessments subject to several different types of uncertainty.

    Our results indicate that realized benefits and investment selection are surprisingly insensitive to all studied types of uncertainty, even for high levels of uncertainty. The two types of uncertainty that affect results the most are uncertainties about investment cost and transport demand. Provided that decisions are based on CBA outcomes, reducing uncertainty is still worthwhile, however, because of the huge sums at stake. Even moderate reductions of uncertainties about unit values, investment costs, future demand and project effects may increase the realized benefits infrastructure investment plans by tens or hundreds of million euros. We conclude that, despite the many types of uncertainties, CBA is able to fairly consistently separate the wheat from the chaff and hence contribute to substantially improved infrastructure decisions.

  • 13. Asplund, Disa
    et al.
    Eliasson, Jonas
    KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Transportvetenskap, Transportplanering, ekonomi och teknik.
    Does uncertainty make cost-benefit analyses pointless?2016Ingår i: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 92, s. 195-205Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Cost-benefit analysis (CBA) is widely used in public decision making on infrastructure investments. However, the demand forecasts, cost estimates, benefit valuations and effect assessments that are conducted as part of CBAs are all subject to various degrees of uncertainty. The question is to what extent CBAs, given such uncertainties, are still useful as a way to prioritize between infrastructure investments, or put differently, how robust the policy conclusions of CBA are with respect to uncertainties. Using simulations based on real data on national infrastructure plans in Sweden and Norway, we study how investment selection and total realized benefits change when decisions are based on CBA assessments subject to several different types of uncertainty. Our results indicate that realized benefits and investment selection are surprisingly insensitive to all studied types of uncertainty, even for high levels of uncertainty. The two types of uncertainty that affect results the most are uncertainties about investment cost and transport demand. Provided that decisions are based on CBA outcomes, reducing uncertainty is still worthwhile, however, because of the huge sums at stake. Even moderate reductions of uncertainties about unit values, investment costs, future demand and project effects may increase the realized benefits infrastructure investment plans by tens or hundreds of million euros. We conclude that, despite the many types of uncertainties, CBA is able to fairly consistently separate the wheat from the chaff and hence contribute to substantially improved infrastructure decisions.

  • 14.
    Asplund, Disa
    et al.
    Division of Transport Economics, The Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute (VTI), Linköping, Sweden.
    Eliasson, Jonas
    Department of Transport Science, KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, Sweden.
    Does uncertainty make cost-benefit analyses pointless?2016Ingår i: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 92, s. 195-205Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Cost-benefit analysis (CBA) is widely used in public decision making on infrastructure investments. However, the demand forecasts, cost estimates, benefit valuations and effect assessments that are conducted as part of CBAs are all subject to various degrees of uncertainty. The question is to what extent CBAs, given such uncertainties, are still useful as a way to prioritize between infrastructure investments, or put differently, how robust the policy conclusions of CBA are with respect to uncertainties. Using simulations based on real data on national infrastructure plans in Sweden and Norway, we study how investment selection and total realized benefits change when decisions are based on CBA assessments subject to several different types of uncertainty. Our results indicate that realized benefits and investment selection are surprisingly insensitive to all studied types of uncertainty, even for high levels of uncertainty. The two types of uncertainty that affect results the most are uncertainties about investment cost and transport demand. Provided that decisions are based on CBA outcomes, reducing uncertainty is still worthwhile, however, because of the huge sums at stake. Even moderate reductions of uncertainties about unit values, investment costs, future demand and project effects may increase the realized benefits infrastructure investment plans by tens or hundreds of million euros. We conclude that, despite the many types of uncertainties, CBA is able to fairly consistently separate the wheat from the chaff and hence contribute to substantially improved infrastructure decisions.

  • 15.
    Bastian, Anne
    et al.
    KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Transportvetenskap, Transportplanering, ekonomi och teknik.
    Börjesson, M.
    KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Transportvetenskap, Systemanalys och ekonomi.
    Eliasson, Jonas
    KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Transportvetenskap, Transportplanering, ekonomi och teknik.
    Response to Wadud and Baierl: “Explaining ‘peak car’ with economic variables: An observation”2017Ingår i: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 95, s. 386-389Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
  • 16.
    Bastian, Anne
    et al.
    KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Transportvetenskap, Transportplanering, ekonomi och teknik. KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Centra, Centrum för transportstudier, CTS.
    Börjesson, Maria
    KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Transportvetenskap, Transportplanering, ekonomi och teknik. KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Centra, Centrum för transportstudier, CTS.
    Eliasson, Jonas
    KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Transportvetenskap, Transportplanering, ekonomi och teknik. KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Centra, Centrum för transportstudier, CTS.
    Explaining “peak car” with economic variables2016Ingår i: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 2016, nr 88, s. 236-250Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Many western countries have seen a plateau and subsequent decrease of car travel during the 21st century. What has generated particular interest and debate is the statement that the development cannot be explained by changes in traditional explanatory factors such as GDP and fuel prices. Instead, it has been argued, the observed trends are indications of substantial changes in lifestyles, preferences and attitudes to car travel; what we are experiencing is not just a temporary plateau, but a true “peak car”. However, this study shows that the traditional variables GDP and fuel price are in fact sufficient to explain the observed trends in car traffic in all the countries included in our study: the United States, France, the United Kingdom, Sweden and (to a large extent) Australia and Germany. We argue that the importance of the fuel price increases in the early 2000s has been underappreciated in the studies that shaped the later debate. Results also indicate that GDP elasticities tend to decrease with rising GDP, and that fuel price elasticities tend to increase at high price levels and during periods of rapid price increases.

  • 17.
    Bastian, Anne
    et al.
    KTH.
    Börjesson, Maria
    KTH.
    Eliasson, Jonas
    KTH.
    Explaining “peak car” with economic variables2016Ingår i: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 2016, nr 88, s. 236-250Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Many western countries have seen a plateau and subsequent decrease of car travel during the 21st century. What has generated particular interest and debate is the statement that the development cannot be explained by changes in traditional explanatory factors such as GDP and fuel prices. Instead, it has been argued, the observed trends are indications of substantial changes in lifestyles, preferences and attitudes to car travel; what we are experiencing is not just a temporary plateau, but a true “peak car”. However, this study shows that the traditional variables GDP and fuel price are in fact sufficient to explain the observed trends in car traffic in all the countries included in our study: the United States, France, the United Kingdom, Sweden and (to a large extent) Australia and Germany. We argue that the importance of the fuel price increases in the early 2000s has been underappreciated in the studies that shaped the later debate. Results also indicate that GDP elasticities tend to decrease with rising GDP, and that fuel price elasticities tend to increase at high price levels and during periods of rapid price increases.

  • 18.
    Bauner, David
    KTH, Skolan för industriell teknik och management (ITM), Industriell ekonomi och organisation (Inst.).
    International private and public reinforcing dependencies for the innovation of automotive emission control systems in Japan and USA2011Ingår i: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 45, nr 5, s. 375-388Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    In the beginning of the 1970s, the economies of USA and Japan were growing fast and environmental pollution was increasing to alarming levels. As passenger car emissions were found to be significant and rapidly increasing, their reduction was specially targeted. Following a bill passed by US Congress in 1968, requirements were set in 1970 for the vehicle manufacturers to reduce the emissions of carbon monoxide (CO) and hydrocarbons (HC) with 90% by 1975, and nitrogen oxides (NOx) with 90% by 1976. These requirements were soon adapted to the Japanese regulatory framework, and were known in both countries as the "Muskie Act" or "Muskie Law" after the senator who developed the original bill. The new requirements spurred tremendous research and development efforts. Car manufacturers and research institutions in USA, Japan and Europe investigated and developed alternative solutions, including gas turbine and steam engine vehicles. California, the USA state with the most severe air quality problems and the only state at the time allowed to establish more strict requirements than federal regulation, established requirements implying the use of oxidation catalysts in 1975 and three-way catalysts (TWC's) in 1977. Japan as a nation adopted similar requirements 1976 and 1978. Export of cars from Japan to USA increased rapidly. The rest of USA adopted emission standards similar to California's only in 1981, timing USA vehicle sales rebound after the energy crisis and grave economic downturn. Strict requirements were thus established only after more than a decade of civic and legal processes between federal authorities, the car manufacturers and NGO's. The history of vehicle development is one of cooperation and competition. This paper argues that the international cooperation on different levels of society (government, industry and science) together with commercial competition between the two countries was strong, continuous and instrumental in enabling the development of technology, appropriate regulation and infrastructural changes and thus created a market for cleaner cars and effectively reduced emissions from the growing vehicle fleet. In other words, the introduction of TWCs was reinforced by the simultaneous development of mitigating technology in two car producing countries competing for market space.

  • 19.
    Beser Hugosson, Muriel
    KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Centra, Centrum för transportstudier, CTS. KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Transportvetenskap, Transport- och lokaliseringsanalys.
    Quantifying uncertainties in a national forecasting model2005Ingår i: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 39, nr 6, s. 531-547Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Uncertainties related to demand model system outputs is an important issue in travel demand models. This paper focuses on uncertainties arisen from the fact that models are estimated on a sample of the population (and not the whole population). Forecasting systems can be quite complex, and may contain procedures that not easily permit analytically derived statistical measures of uncertainty. In this paper, the possibilities to use computer-intensive numerical methods to compute statistical measures for very complex systems, without being bound to an analytical approach, are explored. Here, the bootstrap method is used to obtain statistical measures of outputs produced by the forecasting system SAMPERS. The SAMPERS system is used by Swedish transport authorities. The bootstrap method is briefly described as well as the procedure of applying bootstrap on the SAMPERS system. Numerical results are presented for selected forecast results at different levels such as total traffic demand, origin-destination demand, train line demand and the demand on specific links. Also, the uncertainty related to the value of time estimate is analysed. 

  • 20.
    Björklund, Gunilla
    et al.
    Statens väg- och transportforskningsinstitut, Samhälle, miljö och transporter, SAMT, Mobilitet, aktörer och planering, MAP.
    Swärdh, Jan-Erik
    Statens väg- och transportforskningsinstitut, Samhälle, miljö och transporter, SAMT, Transportekonomi, TEK.
    Estimating policy values for in-vehicle comfort and crowding reduction in local public transport2017Ingår i: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 106, s. 453-472Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    This study estimates policy values for comfort, defined as getting a seat, and crowding reduction on board local public transport in Sweden. We use stated-preference (SP) data and present crowding as a mode-neutral crowding level among the standing travelers depicted in images presented to the respondents. We analyze whether there are differences in the willingness to pay (WTP) for comfort and crowding reduction among the three largest urban areas in Sweden. In general, we find no significantly different preferences for sitting and crowding reduction among the three urban areas. Still, the point estimates differ in some cases, indicating that there may be differences across the three urban areas, but the estimates have large confidence intervals that overlap each other. Also, these differences are likely to have resulted from mode-share differences and not from differences in preferences across the urban areas. Some significant differences are found among the modes, for example, a higher disutility of standing on a bus versus on a tram. These mode-specific estimates can be used as policy values for a given tram line or metro line. Nevertheless, we also pooled the data suggesting average WTP estimates for sitting and crowding reductions that can be used for national cost–benefit analysis policy in all large urban areas in Sweden where crowding on local public transport occurs. Importantly, analysis of heterogeneity and SP-design differences shows that the results are in line with empirical knowledge of the value of travel time savings.

  • 21.
    Broman, Emanuel
    et al.
    Statens väg- och transportforskningsinstitut, Samhälle, miljö och transporter, SAMT, Transportekonomi, TEK.
    Eliasson, Jonas
    Linköpings Universitet.
    Welfare effects of open access competition on railway markets2019Ingår i: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 129, s. 72-91Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    In recent years, several countries have deregulated passenger railway markets to allow open access. The aim is for competition to lower fares and increase quality of service, thereby increasing demand, economic efficiency and overall social welfare. We use a stylised simulation model to study how open access competition affects fares, demand, supply, consumer surplus and operator profits compared to a profit maximising monopoly and to a welfare maximising benchmark situation. We conclude that aggregate social welfare increases substantially when going from profit maximising monopoly to duopoly competition, as consumers make large gains while operators’ profits fall. It matters how the infrastructure manager sets the timetable based on operators’ capacity requests: the infrastructure manager should strive to increase competition by mixing competing operators’ departures as much as possible. According to simulations, there generally exists a stable competitive Nash equilibrium with two or more profitable operators. Although operators are identical in the model setup, the Nash equilibrium outcome is asymmetric: one operator has more departures and higher average fares than the other does. If operators are allowed to cooperate, however, for example by trading or selling departure slots, the equilibrium situation tends to revert to monopoly. The regulatory framework must therefore prevent collusion and facilitate market entry. Even the potential for competitive entry tends to increase social welfare, as the monopolist has incentives to increase supply as an entry deterrence strategy.

  • 22.
    Broman, Emanuel
    et al.
    Linköpings universitet, Institutionen för teknik och naturvetenskap, Kommunikations- och transportsystem. Linköpings universitet, Tekniska fakulteten. Swedish Natl Rd and Transport Res Inst VTI, Sweden.
    Eliasson, Jonas
    Linköpings universitet, Institutionen för teknik och naturvetenskap, Kommunikations- och transportsystem. Linköpings universitet, Tekniska fakulteten.
    Welfare effects of open access competition on railway markets2019Ingår i: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 129, s. 72-91Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    In recent years, several countries have deregulated passenger railway markets to allow open access. The aim is for competition to lower fares and increase quality of service, thereby increasing demand, economic efficiency and overall social welfare. We use a stylised simulation model to study how open access competition affects fares, demand, supply, consumer surplus and operator profits compared to a profit maximising monopoly and to a welfare maximising benchmark situation. We conclude that aggregate social welfare increases substantially when going from profit maximising monopoly to duopoly competition, as consumers make large gains while operators profits fall. It matters how the infrastructure manager sets the timetable based on operators capacity requests: the infrastructure manager should strive to increase competition by mixing competing operators departures as much as possible. According to simulations, there generally exists a stable competitive Nash equilibrium with two or more profitable operators. Although operators are identical in the model setup, the Nash equilibrium outcome is asymmetric: one operator has more departures and higher average fares than the other does. If operators are allowed to cooperate, however, for example by trading or selling departure slots, the equilibrium situation tends to revert to monopoly. The regulatory framework must therefore prevent collusion and facilitate market entry. Even the potential for competitive entry tends to increase social welfare, as the monopolist has incentives to increase supply as an entry deterrence strategy.

    Publikationen är tillgänglig i fulltext från 2021-08-19 11:45
  • 23.
    Börjesson, Maria
    KTH, Trafik och logistik.
    Forecasting demand for high speed rail2014Ingår i: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 70, s. 81-92Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    It is sometimes argued that standard state-of-practice logit-based models cannot forecast the demand for substantially reduced travel times, for instance due to High Speed Rail (HSR). The present paper investigates this issue by reviewing the literature on travel time elasticities for long distance rail travel and comparing these with elasticities observed when new HSR lines have opened. This paper also validates the Swedish long distance model, Sampers, and its forecast demand for a proposed new HSR, using aggregate data revealing how the air-rail modal split varies with the difference in generalized travel time between rail and air. The Sampers long distance model is also compared to a newly developed model applying Box-Cox transformations. The paper contributes to the empirical literature on long distance travel, long distance elasticities and HSR passenger demand forecasts. Results indicate that the Sampers model is indeed able to predict the demand for HSR reasonably well. The new non-linear model has even better model fit and also slightly higher elasticities.

  • 24.
    Börjesson, Maria
    KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Transportvetenskap, Trafik och logistik.
    Forecasting demand for high speed rail2014Ingår i: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 70, s. 81-92Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    It is sometimes argued that standard state-of-practice logit-based models cannot forecast the demand for substantially reduced travel times, for instance due to High Speed Rail (HSR). The present paper investigates this issue by reviewing the literature on travel time elasticities for long distance rail travel and comparing these with elasticities observed when new HSR lines have opened. This paper also validates the Swedish long distance model, Sampers, and its forecast demand for a proposed new HSR, using aggregate data revealing how the air-rail modal split varies with the difference in generalized travel time between rail and air. The Sampers long distance model is also compared to a newly developed model applying Box-Cox transformations. The paper contributes to the empirical literature on long distance travel, long distance elasticities and HSR passenger demand forecasts. Results indicate that the Sampers model is indeed able to predict the demand for HSR reasonably well. The new non-linear model has even better model fit and also slightly higher elasticities.

  • 25.
    Börjesson, Maria
    et al.
    KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Centra, Centrum för transportstudier, CTS.
    Eliasson, Jonas
    KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Centra, Centrum för transportstudier, CTS.
    Experiences from the Swedish Value of Time study2014Ingår i: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 59, s. 144-158Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    We provide a synthesis of results and insights from the Swedish Value of Time study, with focus on what is relevant for transport appraisal and understanding travel behavior. We summarize recent econometric advances, and show how these enable a better understanding and identification of the value of time distribution. The influence of the sign and size of changes is estimated and discussed, including the problems of loss aversion and the value of small time savings. Further, we show how the value of time depends on trip and traveler characteristics, discuss in what dimensions the value of time should be differentiated in appraisal, and provide recommended values for use in applied transport appraisal.

  • 26.
    Börjesson, Maria
    et al.
    KTH.
    Eliasson, Jonas
    KTH.
    Experiences from the Swedish Value of Time study2014Ingår i: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 59, s. 144-158Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    We provide a synthesis of results and insights from the Swedish Value of Time study, with focus on what is relevant for transport appraisal and understanding travel behavior. We summarize recent econometric advances, and show how these enable a better understanding and identification of the value of time distribution. The influence of the sign and size of changes is estimated and discussed, including the problems of loss aversion and the value of small time savings. Further, we show how the value of time depends on trip and traveler characteristics, discuss in what dimensions the value of time should be differentiated in appraisal, and provide recommended values for use in applied transport appraisal.

  • 27.
    Börjesson, Maria
    et al.
    KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Centra, Centrum för transportstudier, CTS.
    Eliasson, Jonas
    KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Centra, Centrum för transportstudier, CTS.
    On the use of "average delay" as a measure of train reliability2011Ingår i: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 45, nr 3, s. 171-184Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    We investigate how passengers on long-distance trains value unexpected delays relative to scheduled travel time and travel cost. For scheduled services with high reliability and long headways, the value of delays is most commonly assumed to be proportional to the average delay. By exploring how the valuation of train delays depends on delay risk and delay length, using three different stated choice data sets, we find that the "average delay" approach does not hold: the disutility increases slower than linearly in the delay risk. This means that using the average delay as a performance indicator, a guide for operations planning or for investment appraisal will underestimate the value of small risks of long delays relative to large risks for short delays. It also means that estimated valuations of "average delay" will depend on the delay risk level: valuations will be higher the lower the risk levels in the study are.

  • 28.
    Börjesson, Maria
    et al.
    KTH.
    Eliasson, Jonas
    KTH.
    On the use of "average delay" as a measure of train reliability2011Ingår i: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 45, nr 3, s. 171-184Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    We investigate how passengers on long-distance trains value unexpected delays relative to scheduled travel time and travel cost. For scheduled services with high reliability and long headways, the value of delays is most commonly assumed to be proportional to the average delay. By exploring how the valuation of train delays depends on delay risk and delay length, using three different stated choice data sets, we find that the "average delay" approach does not hold: the disutility increases slower than linearly in the delay risk. This means that using the average delay as a performance indicator, a guide for operations planning or for investment appraisal will underestimate the value of small risks of long delays relative to large risks for short delays. It also means that estimated valuations of "average delay" will depend on the delay risk level: valuations will be higher the lower the risk levels in the study are.

  • 29.
    Börjesson, Maria
    et al.
    KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Centra, Centrum för transportstudier, CTS.
    Eliasson, Jonas
    KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Centra, Centrum för transportstudier, CTS.
    The value of time and external benefits in bicycle appraisal2012Ingår i: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 46, nr 4, s. 673-683Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    We estimate the value of time savings, different cycling environments and additional benefits in cost-benefit analysis of cycling investments. Cyclists' value of travel time savings turns out to be high, considerably higher than the value of time savings on alternative modes. Cyclists also value other improvements highly, such as separated bicycle lanes. As to additional benefits of cycling improvements in the form of health and reduced car traffic, our results do not support the notion that these will be a significant part in a cost-benefit analysis. Bicyclists seem to take health largely into account when making their travel choices, implying that it would be double-counting to add total health benefits to the analysis once the consumer surplus has been correctly calculated. As to reductions in car traffic, our results indicate that the cross-elasticity between car and cycle is low, and hence benefits from traffic reductions will be small. However, the valuations of improved cycling speeds and comfort are so high that it seems likely that improvements for cyclists are cost-effective compared to many other types of investments, without having to invoke second-order, indirect effects. In other words, our results suggest that bicycle should be viewed as a competitive mode of travel and not primarily as a means to achieve improved health or reduced car traffic.

  • 30.
    Börjesson, Maria
    et al.
    KTH.
    Eliasson, Jonas
    KTH.
    The value of time and external benefits in bicycle appraisal2012Ingår i: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 46, nr 4, s. 673-683Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    We estimate the value of time savings, different cycling environments and additional benefits in cost-benefit analysis of cycling investments. Cyclists' value of travel time savings turns out to be high, considerably higher than the value of time savings on alternative modes. Cyclists also value other improvements highly, such as separated bicycle lanes. As to additional benefits of cycling improvements in the form of health and reduced car traffic, our results do not support the notion that these will be a significant part in a cost-benefit analysis. Bicyclists seem to take health largely into account when making their travel choices, implying that it would be double-counting to add total health benefits to the analysis once the consumer surplus has been correctly calculated. As to reductions in car traffic, our results indicate that the cross-elasticity between car and cycle is low, and hence benefits from traffic reductions will be small. However, the valuations of improved cycling speeds and comfort are so high that it seems likely that improvements for cyclists are cost-effective compared to many other types of investments, without having to invoke second-order, indirect effects. In other words, our results suggest that bicycle should be viewed as a competitive mode of travel and not primarily as a means to achieve improved health or reduced car traffic.

  • 31.
    Börjesson, Maria
    et al.
    KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Transportvetenskap, Transportplanering, ekonomi och teknik.
    Eliasson, Jonas
    KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Transportvetenskap, Transportplanering, ekonomi och teknik.
    Johnsson Hamilton, Carl
    KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Transportvetenskap, Transportplanering, ekonomi och teknik.
    Why experience changes attitudes to congestion pricing: The case of Gothenburg2016Ingår i: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 85, s. 1-16Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Many cities have seen public support for congestion charges increase substantially after charges have been introduced. Several alternative explanations of this phenomenon have been suggested, but so far little evidence has been available to assess the relative importance of these explanations. We study attitudes to congestion pricing in Gothenburg before and after congestion charges were introduced in January 2013. Attitudes to the charges did indeed become more positive after the introduction, just as in previous cities. Using a two-wave postal survey, we separate contributions to the attitude change from a number of sources: benefits and costs being different than anticipated, use of hypothecated revenues, reframing processes, and changes in related attitudes such as attitudes to environment, equity, taxation and pricing measures in general. We conclude that the dominant reason for the attitude change is status quo bias, rather than any substantial changes in beliefs or related attitudes, although some of these factors also contribute. Contrary to a common belief, nothing of the attitude change is due to benefits being larger than anticipated.

  • 32.
    Börjesson, Maria
    et al.
    KTH.
    Eliasson, Jonas
    KTH.
    Johnsson Hamilton, Carl
    KTH.
    Why experience changes attitudes to congestion pricing: The case of Gothenburg2016Ingår i: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 85, s. 1-16Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Many cities have seen public support for congestion charges increase substantially after charges have been introduced. Several alternative explanations of this phenomenon have been suggested, but so far little evidence has been available to assess the relative importance of these explanations. We study attitudes to congestion pricing in Gothenburg before and after congestion charges were introduced in January 2013. Attitudes to the charges did indeed become more positive after the introduction, just as in previous cities. Using a two-wave postal survey, we separate contributions to the attitude change from a number of sources: benefits and costs being different than anticipated, use of hypothecated revenues, reframing processes, and changes in related attitudes such as attitudes to environment, equity, taxation and pricing measures in general. We conclude that the dominant reason for the attitude change is status quo bias, rather than any substantial changes in beliefs or related attitudes, although some of these factors also contribute. Contrary to a common belief, nothing of the attitude change is due to benefits being larger than anticipated.

  • 33.
    Börjesson, Maria
    et al.
    KTH.
    Fosgerau, Mogens
    KTH.
    Algers, Staffan
    KTH.
    Catching the tail: Empirical identification of the distribution of the value of travel time2012Ingår i: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 46, nr 2, s. 378-391Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Recent methodological advances in discrete choice analysis in combination with certain stated choice experiments have allowed researchers to check empirically the identification of the distribution of latent variables such as the value of travel time (VTT). Lack of identification is likely to be common and the consequences are severe. E.g., the Danish value of time study found the 15% right tail of the VTT distribution to be unidentified, making it impossible to estimate the mean VTT without resorting to strong assumptions with equally strong impact on the resulting estimate. This paper analyses data generated from a similar choice experiment undertaken in Sweden during 2007–2008 in which the range of trade-off values between time and money was significantly increased relative to the Danish experiment. The results show that this change allowed empirical identification of effectively the entire VTT distribution. In addition to informing the design of future choice experiments, the results are also of interest as a validity test of the stated choice methodology. Failure in identifying the right tail of the VTT would have made it difficult to maintain that respondents’ behaviour is consistent with utility maximisation in the sense intended by the experimenter.

  • 34.
    Börjesson, Maria
    et al.
    KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Centra, Centrum för transportstudier, CTS.
    Fosgerau, Mogens
    KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Centra, Centrum för transportstudier, CTS. KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Transportvetenskap, Transport- och lokaliseringsanalys.
    Algers, Staffan
    KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Centra, Centrum för transportstudier, CTS. KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Transportvetenskap, Transport- och lokaliseringsanalys.
    Catching the tail: Empirical identification of the distribution of the value of travel time2012Ingår i: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Transportation Research Part A, Vol. 46, nr 2, s. 378-391Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
  • 35.
    Börjesson, Maria
    et al.
    KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Centra, Centrum för transportstudier, CTS.
    Fosgerau, Mogens
    KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Centra, Centrum för transportstudier, CTS. KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Transportvetenskap, Transport- och lokaliseringsanalys.
    Algers, Staffan
    KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Centra, Centrum för transportstudier, CTS. KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Transportvetenskap, Transport- och lokaliseringsanalys.
    On the income elasticity of the value of travel time2012Ingår i: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 46, nr 2, s. 368-377Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Transport infrastructure is long-term and in appraisal it is necessary to value travel timesavings for future years. This requires knowing how the value of time (VTT) will develop over time as incomes grow. This paper investigates if the cross-sectional incomeelasticity of the VTT is equal to inter-temporal income elasticity. The study is based ontwo identical stated choice experiments conducted with a 13. year interval. Results indicate that the relationship between income and the VTT in the cross-section has remained unchanged over time. As a consequence, the inter-temporal income elasticityof the VTT can be predicted based on cross-sectional income elasticity. However, theincome elasticity of the VTT is not a constant but increases with income. For this reason, the average income elasticity of the VTT in the cross-sections has increased between the two survey years and can be expected to increase further over time. 

  • 36.
    Börjesson, Maria
    et al.
    KTH.
    Fosgerau, Mogens
    KTH.
    Algers, Staffan
    KTH.
    On the income elasticity of the value of travel time2012Ingår i: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 46, nr 2, s. 368-377Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Transport infrastructure is long-term and in appraisal it is necessary to value travel time savings for future years. This requires knowing how the value of time (VTT) will develop over time as incomes grow. This paper investigates if the cross-sectional income elasticity of the VTT is equal to inter-temporal income elasticity. The study is based on two identical stated choice experiments conducted with a 13. year interval. Results indicate that the relationship between income and the VTT in the cross-section has remained unchanged over time. As a consequence, the inter-temporal income elasticity of the VTT can be predicted based on cross-sectional income elasticity. However, the income elasticity of the VTT is not a constant but increases with income. For this reason, the average income elasticity of the VTT in the cross-sections has increased between the two survey years and can be expected to increase further over time. 

  • 37.
    Börjesson, Maria
    et al.
    KTH. VTI Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Sweden.
    Fung, C. M.
    Proost, S.
    Yan, Zifei
    KTH.
    Do buses hinder cyclists or is it the other way around?: Optimal bus fares, bus stops and cycling tolls2018Ingår i: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 111, s. 326-346Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper optimises the number of bus stops, and prices for car, bus and cycling in the busiest inner city corridor in Stockholm. We adopt the representative consumer approach and calibrate the current equilibrium using the quasi-linear utility function. We find that the number of bus stops is already close to optimal. Welfare would increase if the peak frequency was increased, if the bus fares were lowered and differentiated between long trips and short trips and, and that the toll for longer car trips was increased. The optimal toll for cyclists, and the welfare benefit from it, is small and does not compensate the transaction costs. The distributional effects of bus fare changes and higher car tolls are small because on one hand, high income groups place more value on travel time gains, but on the other hand, low income groups travel less frequently by car. Surprisingly, we find that in the welfare optimum, the bus service only requires a small subsidy due to congestion in the bus lane, crowding in the buses, and extra boarding and alighting time per passenger. The Mohring effect is limited because the demand, and thereby the baseline frequency, is already high.

  • 38.
    Börjesson, Maria
    et al.
    Statens väg- och transportforskningsinstitut, Samhälle, miljö och transporter, SAMT, Transportekonomi, TEK. KTH .
    Fung, Chau Man
    Katholieke Univ Leuven, Leuven, Belgium..
    Proost, Stef
    Katholieke Univ Leuven, Leuven, Belgium..
    Yan, Zifei
    KTH.
    Do buses hinder cyclists or is it the other way around?: Optimal bus fares, bus stops and cycling tolls2018Ingår i: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 111, s. 326-346Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper optimises the number of bus stops, and prices for car, bus and cycling in the busiest inner city corridor in Stockholm. We adopt the representative consumer approach and calibrate the current equilibrium using the quasi-linear utility function. We find that the number of bus stops is already close to optimal. Welfare would increase if the peak frequency was increased, if the bus fares were lowered and differentiated between long trips and short trips and, and that the toll for longer car trips was increased. The optimal toll for cyclists, and the welfare benefit from it, is small and does not compensate the transaction costs. The distributional effects of bus fare changes and higher car tolls are small because on one hand, high income groups place more value on travel time gains, but on the other hand, low income groups travel less frequently by car. Surprisingly, we find that in the welfare optimum, the bus service only requires a small subsidy due to congestion in the bus lane, crowding in the buses, and extra boarding and alighting time per passenger. The Mohring effect is limited because the demand, and thereby the baseline frequency, is already high.

  • 39.
    Börjesson, Maria
    et al.
    KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Transportvetenskap, Transportplanering, ekonomi och teknik. KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Centra, Centrum för transportstudier, CTS.
    Hamilton, Carl J.
    KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Centra, Centrum för transportstudier, CTS.
    Näsman, Per
    KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Transportvetenskap, Transportplanering, ekonomi och teknik.
    Papaix, Claire
    Factors driving public support for road congestion reduction policies: Congestion charging, free public transport and more roads in Stockholm, Helsinki and Lyon2015Ingår i: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 78, s. 452-462Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Based on an across-the-board survey conducted among residents of Stockholm, Helsinki and Lyon, we explore the opinions on three policy measures to combat road congestion: congestion charging, free public transport and building more roads. The support for the two latter policies is substantially higher than the support for congestion charging, which is only supported by a majority in Stockholm. Self-interest is important for the formation of the opinion to all three policies. However, fundamental values and general political views, indicated by four attitudinal factors, are even more important in forming opinions towards the three transport policies. Of all attitudinal factors, the one indicating environmental concern most influences the support for all policies. Equity concerns, however, increase the support for free public transport and opposition to taxation increases the support for building more roads. Our results further suggest that the opinions towards free public transport and building more roads can be mapped along the left right political axis, where Environment and Equity are to the left and Pricing and Taxation are to the right. However, the opinion towards congestion charging cuts right through the political spectrum. The impact of the fundamental values and self-interest variables are similar for Stockholm and Helsinki, indicating that even if experience increases the overall support for charging, it does not change the relative strength of different political arguments to any major extent.

  • 40.
    Börjesson, Maria
    et al.
    KTH.
    Hamilton, Carl J.
    KTH.
    Näsman, Per
    KTH.
    Papaix, Claire
    French Institute of Science and Technology for Transport, Development and Networks (IFSTTAR).
    Factors driving public support for road congestion reduction policies: Congestion charging, free public transport and more roads in Stockholm, Helsinki and Lyon2015Ingår i: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 78, s. 452-462Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Based on an across-the-board survey conducted among residents of Stockholm, Helsinki and Lyon, we explore the opinions on three policy measures to combat road congestion: congestion charging, free public transport and building more roads. The support for the two latter policies is substantially higher than the support for congestion charging, which is only supported by a majority in Stockholm. Self-interest is important for the formation of the opinion to all three policies. However, fundamental values and general political views, indicated by four attitudinal factors, are even more important in forming opinions towards the three transport policies. Of all attitudinal factors, the one indicating environmental concern most influences the support for all policies. Equity concerns, however, increase the support for free public transport and opposition to taxation increases the support for building more roads. Our results further suggest that the opinions towards free public transport and building more roads can be mapped along the left right political axis, where Environment and Equity are to the left and Pricing and Taxation are to the right. However, the opinion towards congestion charging cuts right through the political spectrum. The impact of the fundamental values and self-interest variables are similar for Stockholm and Helsinki, indicating that even if experience increases the overall support for charging, it does not change the relative strength of different political arguments to any major extent.

  • 41.
    Börjesson, Maria
    et al.
    KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Transportvetenskap, Trafik och logistik.
    Jonsson, R. Daniel
    KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Transportvetenskap, Trafik och logistik.
    Lundberg, Mattias
    KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Transportvetenskap, Trafik och logistik.
    An ex-post CBA for the Stockholm Metro2014Ingår i: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 70, s. 135-148Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper performs an ex-post cost-benefit analysis (CBA) of the Metro system in Stockholm built in the 1950s. We find that the Metro was socially beneficial and that the largest benefit of the Metro is its capacity, making it possible for many people to travel to and from the city center. We also assess the significance of the wider economic impacts due to labor market distortions and the land-use effects in the case of the Stockholm Metro. The wider economic impacts increase the consumer surplus with 48%, and the yearly income in the county with 1.5%. A land-use model is used to simulate how the land-use has been influenced by the Metro over the years 1956-2006. This simulation indicates that the historical centralized planning of housing along transit corridors has developed the region into a more dispersed region than if the market forces had ruled. The simulation also suggests that the land-use impact from the investment itself is small, but that the land-use impact from the planning accompanying the decision to build the Metro has been substantial.

  • 42.
    Börjesson, Maria
    et al.
    KTH.
    Jonsson, R. Daniel
    KTH.
    Lundberg, Mattias
    KTH.
    An ex-post CBA for the Stockholm Metro2014Ingår i: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 70, s. 135-148Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper performs an ex-post cost-benefit analysis (CBA) of the Metro system in Stockholm built in the 1950s. We find that the Metro was socially beneficial and that the largest benefit of the Metro is its capacity, making it possible for many people to travel to and from the city center. We also assess the significance of the wider economic impacts due to labor market distortions and the land-use effects in the case of the Stockholm Metro. The wider economic impacts increase the consumer surplus with 48%, and the yearly income in the county with 1.5%. A land-use model is used to simulate how the land-use has been influenced by the Metro over the years 1956-2006. This simulation indicates that the historical centralized planning of housing along transit corridors has developed the region into a more dispersed region than if the market forces had ruled. The simulation also suggests that the land-use impact from the investment itself is small, but that the land-use impact from the planning accompanying the decision to build the Metro has been substantial.

  • 43.
    Börjesson, Maria
    et al.
    KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Transportvetenskap, Transportplanering, ekonomi och teknik. KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Centra, Centrum för transportstudier, CTS.
    Kristofferesson, Ida
    Sweco.
    The gothenburg congestion charge. Effects, design and politics2015Ingår i: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 75, s. 134-146Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper summarizes the traffic effects of the Gothenburg congestion charges introduced in 2013. The system is similar to the system introduced in Stockholm in 2006; both are designed as time-of-day dependent cordon pricing systems. We find that many effects and adaptation strategies are similar to those found in Stockholm, indicating a high transferability between smaller and larger cities with substantial differences in public transport use. However, there are also important differences regarding some of the effects, the accuracy of the model forecasts and public support arising from different topologies, public transport use, congestion levels and main objectives communicated to the public. Finally, the Gothenburg case suggests that whether congestion charges are introduced or not depends on the support among the political parties, and that this is determined primarily by the prevailing institutional setting and power over revenues, and to a lower extent by the public support, and benefits from congestion reduction.

  • 44.
    Börjesson, Maria
    et al.
    KTH.
    Kristoffersson, Ida
    Sweco.
    The Gothenburg congestion charge: Effects, design and politics2015Ingår i: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 75, s. 134-146Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper summarizes the traffic effects of the Gothenburg congestion charges introduced in 2013. The system is similar to the system introduced in Stockholm in 2006; both are designed as time-of-day dependent cordon pricing systems. We find that many effects and adaptation strategies are similar to those found in Stockholm, indicating a high transferability between smaller and larger cities with substantial differences in public transport use. However, there are also important differences regarding some of the effects, the accuracy of the model forecasts and public support arising from different topologies, public transport use, congestion levels and main objectives communicated to the public. Finally, the Gothenburg case suggests that whether congestion charges are introduced or not depends on the support among the political parties, and that this is determined primarily by the prevailing institutional setting and power over revenues, and to a lower extent by the public support, and benefits from congestion reduction.

  • 45.
    Börjesson, Maria
    et al.
    KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Transportvetenskap. VTI Swedish Road and Transport Research Institute, Sweden.
    Kristoffersson, Ida
    The Swedish congestion charges: Ten years on2018Ingår i: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 107, s. 35-51Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Time-of-day dependent cordon-based congestion charging systems were introduced in Stockholm in 2006, and in Gothenburg in 2013. The Stockholm system was significantly extended in 2016, and the peak charge has been increased in the two cities. This paper analyses the effects of the first decade with the Swedish congestion charges, specifically effects of the system updates, and draws policy lessons for the years to come. Should we introduce congestion charges in more cities? Should we extend the systems that we have? We synthesize previous research findings and focus on the long-term effects that have varied over time including the recent years: the price elasticities on the traffic volume across the cordon, the revenue and system operating cost, the public and political support, and consequences for the transport planning process. We also explore the effects on peak and off-peak, and different types of traffic (trucks, company cars and private passenger cars), because of access to novel data that make this analysis possible. We find that the price elasticities have increased over time in Stockholm, but decreased in Gothenburg. We find that the public support increased in the two cities after their introduction until the systems were revised; since then, the public support has declined in both cities. We find that the price elasticity was substantially lower when the charging levels were increased, and when the Stockholm system was extended, than when the charges were first introduced, a likely reason being that the most price-sensitive traffic was already priced off-the road at the introduction.

  • 46.
    Börjesson, Maria
    et al.
    Statens väg- och transportforskningsinstitut, Samhälle, miljö och transporter, SAMT, Transportekonomi, TEK. KTH.
    Kristoffersson, Ida
    Statens väg- och transportforskningsinstitut, Samhälle, miljö och transporter, SAMT, Trafikanalys och logistik, TAL.
    The Swedish congestion charges: Ten years on2018Ingår i: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 107, s. 35-51Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Time-of-day dependent cordon-based congestion charging systems were introduced in Stockholm in 2006, and in Gothenburg in 2013. The Stockholm system was significantly extended in 2016, and the peak charge has been increased in the two cities. This paper analyses the effects of the first decade with the Swedish congestion charges, specifically effects of the system updates, and draws policy lessons for the years to come. Should we introduce congestion charges in more cities? Should we extend the systems that we have? We synthesize previous research findings and focus on the long-term effects that have varied over time including the recent years: the price elasticities on the traffic volume across the cordon, the revenue and system operating cost, the public and political support, and consequences for the transport planning process. We also explore the effects on peak and off-peak, and different types of traffic (trucks, company cars and private passenger cars), because of access to novel data that make this analysis possible. We find that the price elasticities have increased over time in Stockholm, but decreased in Gothenburg. We find that the public support increased in the two cities after their introduction until the systems were revised; since then, the public support has declined in both cities. We find that the price elasticity was substantially lower when the charging levels were increased, and when the Stockholm system was extended, than when the charges were first introduced, a likely reason being that the most price-sensitive traffic was already priced off-the road at the introduction.

  • 47.
    Carling, Kenneth
    et al.
    Högskolan Dalarna, Akademin Industri och samhälle, Mikrodataanalys.
    Håkansson, Johan
    Högskolan Dalarna, Akademin Industri och samhälle, Mikrodataanalys.
    Meng, Xiangli
    Högskolan Dalarna, Akademin Industri och samhälle, Mikrodataanalys.
    Rudholm, Niklas
    Högskolan Dalarna, Akademin Industri och samhälle, Nationalekonomi. HUI Research, Stockholm.
    The effect on CO2 emissions of taxing truck distance in retail transports2017Ingår i: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 97, s. 47-54Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    To finance transportation infrastructure and to address social and environmental negative externalities of road transports, several countries have recently introduced or consider a distance based tax on trucks. In competitive retail and transportation markets, such tax can be expected to lower the demand and thereby reduce CO2 emissions of road transports. However, as we show in this paper, such tax might also slow down the transition towards e-tailing. Considering that previous research indicates that a consumer switching from brick-and-mortar shopping to e-tailing reduces her CO2 emissions substantially, the direction and magnitude of the environmental net effect of the tax is unclear. In this paper, we assess the net effect in a Swedish regional retail market where the tax not yet is in place. We predict the net effect on CO2 emissions to be positive, but off-set by about 50% because of a slower transition to e-tailing.

  • 48.
    Cats, Oded
    et al.
    KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Transportvetenskap, Transportplanering, ekonomi och teknik. Department of Transport and Planning, Delft University of Technology, Delft, The Netherlands .
    Jenelius, Erik
    KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Transportvetenskap, Transportplanering, ekonomi och teknik.
    Planning for the Unexpected: The Value of Reserve Capacity for Public Transport Network Robustness2015Ingår i: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 81, s. 47-61Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Public transport networks (PTN) are subject to recurring service disruptions. Most studies of the robustness of PTN have focused on network topology and considered vulnerability in terms of connectivity reliability. While these studies provide insights on general design principles, there is lack of knowledge concerning the effectiveness of different strategies to reduce the impacts of disruptions. This paper proposes and demonstrates a methodology for evaluating the effectiveness of a strategic increase in capacity on alternative PTN links to mitigate the impact of unexpected network disruptions. The evaluation approach consists of two stages: identifying a set of important links and then for each identified important link, a set of capacity enhancement schemes is evaluated. The proposed method integrates stochastic supply and demand models, dynamic route choice and limited operational capacity. This dynamic agent-based modelling of network performance enables to capture cascading network effects as well as the adaptive redistribution of passenger flows. An application for the rapid PTN of Stockholm, Sweden, demonstrates how the proposed method could be applied to sequentially designed scenarios based on their performance indicators. The method presented in this paper could support policy makers and operators in prioritizing measures to increase network robustness by improving system capacity to absorb unexpected disruptions.

  • 49.
    Cats, Oded
    et al.
    KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Transportvetenskap, Transportplanering, ekonomi och teknik.
    Loutos, Gerasimos
    KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Transportvetenskap.
    Evaluating the added-value of online bus arrival prediction schemes2016Ingår i: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 86, s. 35-55Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Online predictions of bus arrival times have the potential to reduce the uncertainty associated with bus operations. By better anticipating future conditions, online predictions can reduce perceived and actual passenger travel times as well as facilitate more proactive decision making by service providers. Even though considerable research efforts were devoted to the development of computationally expensive bus arrival prediction schemes, real-world real-time information (RTI) systems are typically based on very simple prediction rules. This paper narrows down the gap between the state-of-the-art and the state-of-the-practice in generating RTI for public transport systems by evaluating the added-value of schemes that integrate instantaneous data and dwell time predictions. The evaluation considers static information and a commonly deployed scheme as a benchmark. The RTI generation algorithms were applied and analyzed for a trunk bus network in Stockholm, Sweden. The schemes are assessed and compared based on their accuracy, reliability, robustness and potential waiting time savings. The impact of RTI on passengers waiting times are compared with those attained by service frequency and regularity improvements. A method which incorporates information on downstream travel conditions outperforms the commonly deployed scheme, leading to a 25% reduction in the mean absolute error. Furthermore, the incorporation of instantaneous travel times improves the prediction accuracy and reliability, and contributes to more robust predictions. The potential waiting time gains associated with the prediction scheme are equivalent to the gains expected when introducing a 60% increase in service frequency, and are not attainable by service regularity improvements.

  • 50.
    Daunfeldt, Sven-Olov
    et al.
    Högskolan Dalarna, Akademin Industri och samhälle, Nationalekonomi. Högskolan i Gävle; HUI.
    Rudholm, Niklas
    Högskolan Dalarna, Akademin Industri och samhälle, Nationalekonomi. Swedish Retail Inst HUI, SE-10329 Stockholm, Sweden.
    Rämme, Ulf
    HUI.
    Congestion charges and retail revenues: results from the Stockholm road pricing trial2009Ingår i: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 43, nr 3, s. 306-309Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper studies the impact of the Stockholm road pricing trial on retail revenues. The analysis is performed using revenue data from 14 shopping malls, 9 within the tool area and 5 outside the tool area. The data also include revenue data from a sample of retail stores located along the main shopping streets in Stockholm. The results show that the Stockholm road pricing trial did not negatively affect retail revenue, neither in shopping malls nor in the sample of retail stores.

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