Ändra sökning
Avgränsa sökresultatet
123 1 - 50 av 113
RefereraExporteraLänk till träfflistan
Permanent länk
Referera
Referensformat
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Annat format
Fler format
Språk
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Annat språk
Fler språk
Utmatningsformat
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf
Träffar per sida
  • 5
  • 10
  • 20
  • 50
  • 100
  • 250
Sortering
  • Standard (Relevans)
  • Författare A-Ö
  • Författare Ö-A
  • Titel A-Ö
  • Titel Ö-A
  • Publikationstyp A-Ö
  • Publikationstyp Ö-A
  • Äldst först
  • Nyast först
  • Skapad (Äldst först)
  • Skapad (Nyast först)
  • Senast uppdaterad (Äldst först)
  • Senast uppdaterad (Nyast först)
  • Disputationsdatum (tidigaste först)
  • Disputationsdatum (senaste först)
  • Standard (Relevans)
  • Författare A-Ö
  • Författare Ö-A
  • Titel A-Ö
  • Titel Ö-A
  • Publikationstyp A-Ö
  • Publikationstyp Ö-A
  • Äldst först
  • Nyast först
  • Skapad (Äldst först)
  • Skapad (Nyast först)
  • Senast uppdaterad (Äldst först)
  • Senast uppdaterad (Nyast först)
  • Disputationsdatum (tidigaste först)
  • Disputationsdatum (senaste först)
Markera
Maxantalet träffar du kan exportera från sökgränssnittet är 250. Vid större uttag använd dig av utsökningar.
  • 1. Abbott, Benjamin W.
    et al.
    Jones, Jeremy B.
    Schuur, Edward A. G.
    Chapin, F. Stuart
    Bowden, William B.
    Bret-Harte, M. Syndonia
    Epstein, Howard E.
    Flannigan, Michael D.
    Harms, Tamara K.
    Hollingsworth, Teresa N.
    Mack, Michelle C.
    McGuire, A. David
    Natali, Susan M.
    Rocha, Adrian V.
    Tank, Suzanne E.
    Turetsky, Merritt R.
    Vonk, Jorien E.
    Wickland, Kimberly P.
    Aiken, George R.
    Alexander, Heather D.
    Amon, Rainer M. W.
    Benscoter, Brian W.
    Bergeron, Yves
    Bishop, Kevin
    Blarquez, Olivier
    Bond-Lamberty, Ben
    Breen, Amy L.
    Buffam, Ishi
    Cai, Yihua
    Carcaillet, Christopher
    Carey, Sean K.
    Chen, Jing M.
    Chen, Han Y. H.
    Christensen, Torben R.
    Cooper, Lee W.
    Cornelissen, J. Hans C.
    de Groot, William J.
    DeLuca, Thomas H.
    Dorrepaal, Ellen
    Fetcher, Ned
    Finlay, Jacques C.
    Forbes, Bruce C.
    French, Nancy H. F.
    Gauthier, Sylvie
    Girardin, Martin P.
    Goetz, Scott J.
    Goldammer, Johann G.
    Gough, Laura
    Grogan, Paul
    Guo, Laodong
    Higuera, Philip E.
    Hinzman, Larry
    Hu, Feng Sheng
    Hugelius, Gustaf
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för naturgeografi.
    Jafarov, Elchin E.
    Jandt, Randi
    Johnstone, Jill F.
    Karlsson, Jan
    Kasischke, Eric S.
    Kattner, Gerhard
    Kelly, Ryan
    Keuper, Frida
    Kling, George W.
    Kortelainen, Pirkko
    Kouki, Jari
    Kuhry, Peter
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för naturgeografi.
    Laudon, Hjalmar
    Laurion, Isabelle
    Macdonald, Robie W.
    Mann, Paul J.
    Martikainen, Pertti J.
    McClelland, James W.
    Molau, Ulf
    Oberbauer, Steven F.
    Olefeldt, David
    Pare, David
    Parisien, Marc-Andre
    Payette, Serge
    Peng, Changhui
    Pokrovsky, Oleg S.
    Rastetter, Edward B.
    Raymond, Peter A.
    Raynolds, Martha K.
    Rein, Guillermo
    Reynolds, James F.
    Robards, Martin
    Rogers, Brendan M.
    Schaedel, Christina
    Schaefer, Kevin
    Schmidt, Inger K.
    Shvidenko, Anatoly
    Sky, Jasper
    Spencer, Robert G. M.
    Starr, Gregory
    Striegl, Robert G.
    Teisserenc, Roman
    Tranvik, Lars J.
    Virtanen, Tarmo
    Welker, Jeffrey M.
    Zimov, Sergei
    Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire: an expert assessment2016Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 11, nr 3, artikel-id 034014Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimates of net carbon balance increases the risk of further overshooting international emissions targets. Precise empirical or model-based assessments of the critical factors driving carbon balance are unlikely in the near future, so to address this gap, we present estimates from 98 permafrost-region experts of the response of biomass, wildfire, and hydrologic carbon flux to climate change. Results suggest that contrary to model projections, total permafrost-region biomass could decrease due to water stress and disturbance, factors that are not adequately incorporated in current models. Assessments indicate that end-of-the-century organic carbon release from Arctic rivers and collapsing coastlines could increase by 75% while carbon loss via burning could increase four-fold. Experts identified water balance, shifts in vegetation community, and permafrost degradation as the key sources of uncertainty in predicting future system response. In combination with previous findings, results suggest the permafrost region will become a carbon source to the atmosphere by 2100 regardless of warming scenario but that 65%-85% of permafrost carbon release can still be avoided if human emissions are actively reduced.

  • 2.
    Abbott, Benjamin W.
    et al.
    Univ Rennes 1, OSUR, CNRS, UMR ECOBIO 6553, F-35014 Rennes, France.;Univ Alaska Fairbanks, Inst Arctic Biol, Fairbanks, AK USA.;Univ Alaska Fairbanks, Dept Biology& Wildlife, Fairbanks, AK USA..
    Jones, Jeremy B.
    Univ Alaska Fairbanks, Inst Arctic Biol, Fairbanks, AK USA.;Univ Alaska Fairbanks, Dept Biology& Wildlife, Fairbanks, AK USA..
    Schuur, Edward A. G.
    No Arizona Univ, Ctr Ecosyst Sci & Soc, Flagstaff, AZ 86011 USA..
    Chapin, F. Stuart, III
    Univ Alaska Fairbanks, Inst Arctic Biol, Fairbanks, AK USA.;Univ Alaska Fairbanks, Dept Biology& Wildlife, Fairbanks, AK USA..
    Bowden, William B.
    Univ Vermont, Rubenstein Sch Environm & Nat Resources, Burlington, VT 05405 USA..
    Bret-Harte, M. Syndonia
    Univ Alaska Fairbanks, Inst Arctic Biol, Fairbanks, AK USA.;Univ Alaska Fairbanks, Dept Biology& Wildlife, Fairbanks, AK USA..
    Epstein, Howard E.
    Univ Virginia, Dept Environm Sci, Charlottesville, VA 22903 USA..
    Flannigan, Michael D.
    Univ Alberta, Dept Renewable Resources, Edmonton, AB T6G 2M7, Canada..
    Harms, Tamara K.
    Univ Alaska Fairbanks, Inst Arctic Biol, Fairbanks, AK USA.;Univ Alaska Fairbanks, Dept Biology& Wildlife, Fairbanks, AK USA..
    Hollingsworth, Teresa N.
    Univ Alaska Fairbanks, PNW Res Stn, USDA Forest Serv, Fairbanks, AK USA..
    Mack, Michelle C.
    No Arizona Univ, Ctr Ecosyst Sci & Soc, Flagstaff, AZ 86011 USA..
    McGuire, A. David
    Univ Alaska Fairbanks, Alaska Cooperat Fish & Wildlife Res Unit, US Geol Survey, Anchorage, AK USA..
    Natali, Susan M.
    Woods Hole Res Ctr, Woods Hole, MA USA..
    Rocha, Adrian V.
    Univ Notre Dame, Dept Biol Sci, Notre Dame, IN 46556 USA.;Univ Notre Dame, Environm Change Initiat, Notre Dame, IN 46556 USA..
    Tank, Suzanne E.
    Univ Alberta, Dept Biol Sci, Edmonton, AB T6G 2M7, Canada..
    Turetsky, Merritt R.
    Univ Guelph, Dept Integrat Biol, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada..
    Vonk, Jorien E.
    Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Dept Earth Sci, Amsterdam, Netherlands..
    Wickland, Kimberly P.
    US Geol Survey, Natl Res Program, Boulder, CO USA..
    Aiken, George R.
    US Geol Survey, Natl Res Program, Boulder, CO USA..
    Alexander, Heather D.
    Mississippi State Univ, Forest & Wildlife Res Ctr, Mississippi State, MS 39762 USA..
    Amon, Rainer M. W.
    Texas A&M Univ, Galveston, TX USA..
    Benscoter, Brian W.
    Florida Atlantic Univ, Boca Raton, FL 33431 USA..
    Bergeron, Yves
    Univ Quebec Abitibi Temiscamingue, Forest Res Inst, Rouyn Noranda, PQ, Canada..
    Bishop, Kevin
    Uppsala universitet, Teknisk-naturvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Geovetenskapliga sektionen, Institutionen för geovetenskaper, Luft-, vatten och landskapslära. wedish Univ Agr Sci, Dept Aquat Sci & Assessment, S-90183 Umea, Sweden..
    Blarquez, Olivier
    Univ Montreal, Dept Geog, Montreal, PQ H3C 3J7, Canada..
    Bond-Lamberty, Ben
    Pacific NW Natl Lab, Richland, WA 99352 USA..
    Breen, Amy L.
    Univ Alaska Fairbanks, Int Arctic Res Ctr, Scenarios Network Alaska & Arctic Planning, Fairbanks, AK USA..
    Buffam, Ishi
    Univ Cincinnati, Cincinnati, OH 45221 USA..
    Cai, Yihua
    Xiamen Univ, State Key Lab Marine Environm Sci, Xiamen, Peoples R China..
    Carcaillet, Christopher
    Ecole Prat Hautes Etud, UMR5023, CNRS Lyon 1, Lyon, France..
    Carey, Sean K.
    McMaster Univ, Hamilton, ON L8S 4L8, Canada..
    Chen, Jing M.
    Univ Toronto, Toronto, ON M5S 1A1, Canada..
    Chen, Han Y. H.
    Lakehead Univ, Fac Nat Resources Management, Thunder Bay, ON P7B 5E1, Canada..
    Christensen, Torben R.
    Lund Univ, Arctic Res Ctr, S-22100 Lund, Sweden.;Aarhus Univ, DK-8000 Aarhus C, Denmark..
    Cooper, Lee W.
    Univ Maryland, Ctr Environm Sci, Bethesda, MD USA..
    Cornelissen, J. Hans C.
    Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Syst Ecol, Amsterdam, Netherlands..
    de Groot, William J.
    Nat Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Serv, Toronto, ON, Canada..
    DeLuca, Thomas H.
    Univ Washington, Sch Environm & Forest Sci, Seattle, WA 98195 USA..
    Dorrepaal, Ellen
    Umea Univ, Dept Ecol & Environm Sci, Climate Impacts Res Ctr, S-90187 Umea, Sweden..
    Fetcher, Ned
    Wilkes Univ, Inst Environm Sci & Sustainabil, Wilkes Barre, PA 18766 USA..
    Finlay, Jacques C.
    Univ Minnesota, Dept Ecol Evolut & Behav, Minneapolis, MN 55455 USA..
    Forbes, Bruce C.
    Univ Lapland, Arctic Ctr, Rovaniemi, Finland..
    French, Nancy H. F.
    Michigan Technol Univ, Michigan Tech Res Inst, Houghton, MI 49931 USA..
    Gauthier, Sylvie
    Nat Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Serv, Laurentian Forestry Ctr, Toronto, ON, Canada..
    Girardin, Martin P.
    Nat Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Serv, Laurentian Forestry Ctr, Toronto, ON, Canada..
    Goetz, Scott J.
    Woods Hole Res Ctr, Woods Hole, MA USA..
    Goldammer, Johann G.
    Max Planck Inst Chem, Global Fire Monitoring Ctr, Berlin, Germany..
    Gough, Laura
    Towson Univ, Dept Biol Sci, Towson, MD USA..
    Grogan, Paul
    Queens Univ, Dept Biol, Kingston, ON K7L 3N6, Canada..
    Guo, Laodong
    Univ Wisconsin Milwaukee, Sch Freshwater Sci, Milwaukee, WI USA..
    Higuera, Philip E.
    Univ Montana, Dept Ecosyst & Conservat Sci, Missoula, MT 59812 USA..
    Hinzman, Larry
    Univ Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK USA..
    Hu, Feng Sheng
    Univ Illinois, Dept Plant Biol, Chicago, IL 60680 USA.;Univ Illinois, Dept Geol, Chicago, IL 60680 USA..
    Hugelius, Gustaf
    Stockholm Univ, Dept Phys Geog, Stockholm, Sweden..
    Jafarov, Elchin E.
    Univ Colorado Boulder, Inst Arctic & Alpine Res, Boulder, CO USA..
    Jandt, Randi
    Univ Alaska Fairbanks, Alaska Fire Sci Consortium, Fairbanks, AK USA..
    Johnstone, Jill F.
    Univ Saskatchewan, Dept Biol, Saskatoon, SK S7N 0W0, Canada..
    Karlsson, Jan
    Umea Univ, Dept Ecol & Environm Sci, Climate Impacts Res Ctr, S-90187 Umea, Sweden..
    Kasischke, Eric S.
    Univ Maryland, Dept Geog Sci, Bethesda, MD USA..
    Kattner, Gerhard
    Helmholtz Ctr Polar & Marine Res, Alfred Wegener Inst, Berlin, Germany..
    Kelly, Ryan
    Neptune & Co Inc, North Wales, PA USA..
    Keuper, Frida
    Umea Univ, Dept Ecol & Environm Sci, Climate Impacts Res Ctr, S-90187 Umea, Sweden.;INRA, AgroImpact UPR1158, New York, NY USA..
    Kling, George W.
    Univ Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 USA..
    Kortelainen, Pirkko
    Finnish Environm Inst, Helsinki, Finland..
    Kouki, Jari
    Univ Eastern Finland, Sch Forest Sci, Joensuu, Finland..
    Kuhry, Peter
    Stockholm Univ, Dept Phys Geog, Stockholm, Sweden..
    Laudon, Hjalmar
    Swedish Univ Agr Sci, Dept Forest Ecol & Management, S-90183 Umea, Sweden..
    Laurion, Isabelle
    Inst Natl Rech Sci, Ctr Eau Terre Environm, Toronto, ON, Canada..
    Macdonald, Robie W.
    Inst Ocean Sci, Dept Fisheries & Oceans, Toronto, ON, Canada..
    Mann, Paul J.
    Northumbria Univ, Dept Geog, Newcastle Upon Tyne NE1 8ST, Tyne & Wear, England..
    Martikainen, Pertti J.
    Univ Eastern Finland, Dept Environm & Biol Sci, Joensuu, Finland..
    McClelland, James W.
    Univ Texas Austin, Inst Marine Sci, Austin, TX 78712 USA..
    Molau, Ulf
    Univ Gothenburg, Dept Biol & Environm Sci, Gothenburg, Sweden..
    Oberbauer, Steven F.
    Florida Int Univ, Dept Biol Sci, Miami, FL 33199 USA..
    Olefeldt, David
    Univ Alberta, Dept Revewable Resources, Edmonton, AB T6G 2M7, Canada..
    Pare, David
    Nat Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Serv, Laurentian Forestry Ctr, Toronto, ON, Canada..
    Parisien, Marc-Andre
    Nat Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Serv, No Forestry Ctr, Toronto, ON, Canada..
    Payette, Serge
    Univ Laval, Ctr Etud Nord, Quebec City, PQ G1K 7P4, Canada..
    Peng, Changhui
    Univ Quebec, Ctr CEF, ESCER, Montreal, PQ H3C 3P8, Canada.;Northwest A&F Univ, Coll Forestry, State Key Lab Soil Eros & Dryland Farming Loess P, Xian, Peoples R China..
    Pokrovsky, Oleg S.
    CNRS, Georesources & Environm, Toulouse, France.;Tomsk State Univ, BIO GEO CLIM Lab, Tomsk, Russia..
    Rastetter, Edward B.
    Marine Biol Lab, Ctr Ecosyst, Woods Hole, MA 02543 USA..
    Raymond, Peter A.
    Yale Univ, Sch Forestry & Environm Studies, New Haven, CT 06520 USA..
    Raynolds, Martha K.
    Univ Alaska Fairbanks, Inst Arctic Biol, Fairbanks, AK USA..
    Rein, Guillermo
    Univ London Imperial Coll Sci Technol & Med, Dept Mech Engn, London SW7 2AZ, England..
    Reynolds, James F.
    Lanzhou Univ, Sch Life Sci, Lanzhou 730000, Peoples R China.;Duke Univ, Nicholas Sch Environm, Durham, NC 27706 USA..
    Robards, Martin
    Arctic Beringia Program, Wildlife Conservat Soc, New York, NY USA..
    Rogers, Brendan M.
    Woods Hole Res Ctr, Woods Hole, MA USA..
    Schaedel, Christina
    No Arizona Univ, Ctr Ecosyst Sci & Soc, Flagstaff, AZ 86011 USA..
    Schaefer, Kevin
    Univ Colorado Boulder, Cooperat Inst Res Environm Sci, Natl Snow & Ice Data Ctr, Boulder, CO USA..
    Schmidt, Inger K.
    Univ Copenhagen, Dept Geosci & Nat Resource Management, DK-1168 Copenhagen, Denmark..
    Shvidenko, Anatoly
    Int Inst Appl Syst Anal, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria.;Sukachev Inst Forest, Moscow, Russia..
    Sky, Jasper
    Cambridge Ctr Climate Change Res, Cambridge, England..
    Spencer, Robert G. M.
    Florida State Univ, Dept Earth Ocean & Atmospher Sci, Tallahassee, FL 32306 USA..
    Starr, Gregory
    Univ Alabama, Dept Biol Sci, Tuscaloosa, AL 35487 USA..
    Striegl, Robert G.
    US Geol Survey, Natl Res Program, Boulder, CO USA..
    Teisserenc, Roman
    Univ Toulouse, CNRS, INPT, ECOLAB,UPS, Toulouse, France..
    Tranvik, Lars J.
    Uppsala universitet, Teknisk-naturvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Biologiska sektionen, Institutionen för ekologi och genetik, Limnologi.
    Virtanen, Tarmo
    Univ Helsinki, Dept Environm Sci, FIN-00014 Helsinki, Finland..
    Welker, Jeffrey M.
    Univ Alaska Anchorage, Anchorage, AK USA..
    Zimov, Sergei
    Russian Acad Sci, Northeast Sci Stn, Moscow 117901, Russia..
    Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire: an expert assessment2016Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 11, nr 3, artikel-id 034014Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimates of net carbon balance increases the risk of further overshooting international emissions targets. Precise empirical or model-based assessments of the critical factors driving carbon balance are unlikely in the near future, so to address this gap, we present estimates from 98 permafrost-region experts of the response of biomass, wildfire, and hydrologic carbon flux to climate change. Results suggest that contrary to model projections, total permafrost-region biomass could decrease due to water stress and disturbance, factors that are not adequately incorporated in current models. Assessments indicate that end-of-the-century organic carbon release from Arctic rivers and collapsing coastlines could increase by 75% while carbon loss via burning could increase four-fold. Experts identified water balance, shifts in vegetation community, and permafrost degradation as the key sources of uncertainty in predicting future system response. In combination with previous findings, results suggest the permafrost region will become a carbon source to the atmosphere by 2100 regardless of warming scenario but that 65%-85% of permafrost carbon release can still be avoided if human emissions are actively reduced.

  • 3. Abbott, Benjamin W.
    et al.
    Jones, Jeremy B.
    Schuur, Edward A. G.
    Chapin, F. Stuart, III
    Bowden, William B.
    Bret-Harte, M. Syndonia
    Epstein, Howard E.
    Flannigan, Michael D.
    Harms, Tamara K.
    Hollingsworth, Teresa N.
    Mack, Michelle C.
    McGuire, A. David
    Natali, Susan M.
    Rocha, Adrian V.
    Tank, Suzanne E.
    Turetsky, Merritt R.
    Vonk, Jorien E.
    Wickland, Kimberly P.
    Aiken, George R.
    Alexander, Heather D.
    Amon, Rainer M. W.
    Benscoter, Brian W.
    Bergeron, Yves
    Bishop, Kevin
    Blarquez, Olivier
    Bond-Lamberty, Ben
    Breen, Amy L.
    Buffam, Ishi
    Cai, Yihua
    Carcaillet, Christopher
    Carey, Sean K.
    Chen, Jing M.
    Chen, Han Y. H.
    Christensen, Torben R.
    Cooper, Lee W.
    Cornelissen, J. Hans C.
    de Groot, William J.
    DeLuca, Thomas H.
    Dorrepaal, Ellen
    Umeå universitet, Teknisk-naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för ekologi, miljö och geovetenskap.
    Fetcher, Ned
    Finlay, Jacques C.
    Forbes, Bruce C.
    French, Nancy H. F.
    Gauthier, Sylvie
    Girardin, Martin P.
    Goetz, Scott J.
    Goldammer, Johann G.
    Gough, Laura
    Grogan, Paul
    Guo, Laodong
    Higuera, Philip E.
    Hinzman, Larry
    Hu, Feng Sheng
    Hugelius, Gustaf
    Jafarov, Elchin E.
    Jandt, Randi
    Johnstone, Jill F.
    Karlsson, Jan
    Umeå universitet, Teknisk-naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för ekologi, miljö och geovetenskap.
    Kasischke, Eric S.
    Kattner, Gerhard
    Kelly, Ryan
    Keuper, Frida
    Umeå universitet, Teknisk-naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för ekologi, miljö och geovetenskap.
    Kling, George W.
    Kortelainen, Pirkko
    Kouki, Jari
    Kuhry, Peter
    Laudon, Hjalmar
    Laurion, Isabelle
    Macdonald, Robie W.
    Mann, Paul J.
    Martikainen, Pertti J.
    McClelland, James W.
    Molau, Ulf
    Oberbauer, Steven F.
    Olefeldt, David
    Pare, David
    Parisien, Marc-Andre
    Payette, Serge
    Peng, Changhui
    Pokrovsky, Oleg S.
    Rastetter, Edward B.
    Raymond, Peter A.
    Raynolds, Martha K.
    Rein, Guillermo
    Reynolds, James F.
    Robards, Martin
    Rogers, Brendan M.
    Schaedel, Christina
    Schaefer, Kevin
    Schmidt, Inger K.
    Shvidenko, Anatoly
    Sky, Jasper
    Spencer, Robert G. M.
    Starr, Gregory
    Striegl, Robert G.
    Teisserenc, Roman
    Tranvik, Lars J.
    Virtanen, Tarmo
    Welker, Jeffrey M.
    Zimov, Sergei
    Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire: an expert assessment2016Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 11, nr 3, artikel-id 034014Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimates of net carbon balance increases the risk of further overshooting international emissions targets. Precise empirical or model-based assessments of the critical factors driving carbon balance are unlikely in the near future, so to address this gap, we present estimates from 98 permafrost-region experts of the response of biomass, wildfire, and hydrologic carbon flux to climate change. Results suggest that contrary to model projections, total permafrost-region biomass could decrease due to water stress and disturbance, factors that are not adequately incorporated in current models. Assessments indicate that end-of-the-century organic carbon release from Arctic rivers and collapsing coastlines could increase by 75% while carbon loss via burning could increase four-fold. Experts identified water balance, shifts in vegetation community, and permafrost degradation as the key sources of uncertainty in predicting future system response. In combination with previous findings, results suggest the permafrost region will become a carbon source to the atmosphere by 2100 regardless of warming scenario but that 65%-85% of permafrost carbon release can still be avoided if human emissions are actively reduced.

  • 4. Ala-aho, P.
    et al.
    Soulsby, C.
    Pokrovsky, O. S.
    Kirpotin, S. N.
    Karlsson, Jan
    Umeå universitet, Teknisk-naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för ekologi, miljö och geovetenskap.
    Serikova, Svetlana
    Umeå universitet, Teknisk-naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för ekologi, miljö och geovetenskap.
    Manasypov, R.
    Lim, A.
    Krickov, I.
    Kolesnichenko, L. G.
    Laudon, H.
    Tetzlaff, D.
    Permafrost and lakes control river isotope composition across a boreal Arctic transect in the Western Siberian lowlands2018Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 13, nr 3, s. =20-=20, artikel-id 034028Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    The Western Siberian Lowlands (WSL) store large quantities of organic carbon that will be exposed and mobilized by the thawing of permafrost. The fate of mobilized carbon, however, is not well understood, partly because of inadequate knowledge of hydrological controls in the region which has a vast low-relief surface area, extensive lake and wetland coverage and gradually increasing permafrost influence. We used stable water isotopes to improve our understanding of dominant landscape controls on the hydrology of the WSL. We sampled rivers along a 1700 km South-North transect from permafrost-free to continuous permafrost repeatedly over three years, and derived isotope proxies for catchment hydrological responsiveness and connectivity. We found correlations between the isotope proxies and catchment characteristics, suggesting that lakes and wetlands are intimately connected to rivers, and that permafrost increases the responsiveness of the catchment to rainfall and snowmelt events, reducing catchment mean transit times. Our work provides rare isotope-based field evidence that permafrost and lakes/wetlands influence hydrological pathways across a wide range of spatial scales (10-105 km2) and permafrost coverage (0%-70%). This has important implications, because both permafrost extent and lake/wetland coverage are affected by permafrost thaw in the changing climate. Changes in these hydrological landscape controls are likely to alter carbon export and emission via inland waters, which may be of global significance.

  • 5. Alborzi, Aneseh
    et al.
    Mirchi, Ali
    Moftakhari, Hamed
    Mallakpour, Iman
    Alian, Sara
    Nazemi, Ali
    Hassanzadeh, Elmira
    Mazdiyasni, Omid
    Ashraf, Samaneh
    Madani, Kaveh
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för naturgeografi. Imperial College London, United Kingdom.
    Norouzi, Hamid
    Azarderakhsh, Marzi
    Mehran, Ali
    Sadegh, Mojtaba
    Castelletti, Andrea
    AghaKouchak, Amir
    Climate-informed environmental inflows to revive a drying lake facing meteorological and anthropogenic droughts2018Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 13, nr 8, artikel-id 084010Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    The rapid shrinkage of Lake Urmia, one of the world's largest saline lakes located in northwestern Iran, is a tragic wake-up call to revisit the principles of water resources management based on the socio-economic and environmental dimensions of sustainable development. The overarching goal of this paper is to set a framework for deriving dynamic, climate-informed environmental inflows for drying lakes considering both meteorological/climatic and anthropogenic conditions. We report on the compounding effects of meteorological drought and unsustainable water resource management that contributed to Lake Urmia's contemporary environmental catastrophe. Using rich datasets of hydrologic attributes, water demands and withdrawals, as well as water management infrastructure (i.e. reservoir capacity and operating policies), we provide a quantitative assessment of the basin's water resources, demonstrating that Lake Urmia reached a tipping point in the early 2000s. The lake level failed to rebound to its designated ecological threshold (1274 m above sea level) during a relatively normal hydro-period immediately after the drought of record (1998-2002). The collapse was caused by a marked overshoot of the basin's hydrologic capacity due to growing anthropogenic drought in the face of extreme climatological stressors. We offer a dynamic environmental inflow plan for different climate conditions (dry, wet and near normal), combined with three representative water withdrawal scenarios. Assuming effective implementation of the proposed 40% reduction in the current water withdrawals, the required environmental inflows range from 2900 million cubic meters per year (mcm yr(-1)) during dry conditions to 5400 mcm yr(-1) during wet periods with the average being 4100 mcm yr(-1). Finally, for different environmental inflow scenarios, we estimate the expected recovery time for re-establishing the ecological level of Lake Urmia.

  • 6. Anderies, J. M.
    et al.
    Carpenter, S. R.
    Steffen, Will
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Australian National University, Australia.
    Rockström, Johan
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    The topology of non-linear global carbon dynamics: from tipping points to planetary boundaries2013Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 8, nr 4, s. 044048-Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    We present a minimal model of land use and carbon cycle dynamics and use it to explore the relationship between non-linear dynamics and planetary boundaries. Only the most basic interactions between land cover and terrestrial, atmospheric, and marine carbon stocks are considered in the model. Our goal is not to predict global carbon dynamics as it occurs in the actual Earth System. Rather, we construct a conceptually reasonable heuristic model of a feedback system between different carbon stocks that captures the qualitative features of the actual Earth System and use it to explore the topology of the boundaries of what can be called a 'safe operating space' for humans. The model analysis illustrates the existence of dynamic, non-linear tipping points in carbon cycle dynamics and the potential complexity of planetary boundaries. Finally, we use the model to illustrate some challenges associated with navigating planetary boundaries.

  • 7.
    Azcarate, Juan
    et al.
    KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Hållbar utveckling, miljövetenskap och teknik, Mark- och vattenteknik.
    Balfors, Berit
    KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Hållbar utveckling, miljövetenskap och teknik, Mark- och vattenteknik.
    Bring, Arvid
    Stockholm University.
    Destouni, Georgia
    Stockholm University.
    Strategic environmental assessment and monitoring: Arctic key gaps and bridging pathways2013Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 8, nr 4, s. 044033-Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    The Arctic region undergoes rapid and unprecedented environmental change. Environmental assessment and monitoring is needed to understand and decide how to mitigate and/or adapt tothe changes and their impacts on society and ecosystems. This letter analyzes the application of strategic environmental assessment (SEA) and the monitoring, based on environmental observations, that should be part of SEA, elucidates main gaps in both, and proposes an overarching SEA framework to systematically link and improve both with focus on the rapidly changing Arctic region. Shortcomings in the monitoring of environmental change are concretized by examples of main gaps in the observations of Arctic hydroclimatic changes. For relevant identification and efficient reduction of such gaps and remaining uncertainties under typical conditions of limited monitoring resources, the proposed overarching framework for SEA application includes components for explicit gap/uncertainty handling and monitoring, systematically integrated within all steps of the SEA process. The framework further links to adaptive governance, which should explicitly consider key knowledge and information gaps that are identified through and must be handled in the SEA process, and accordingly (re)formulate and promote necessary new or modified monitoring objectives for bridging these gaps.

  • 8. Azcárate, Juan
    et al.
    Balfors, Berit
    Bring, Arvid
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för naturgeografi och kvartärgeologi (INK).
    Destouni, Georgia
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för naturgeografi och kvartärgeologi (INK).
    Strategic environmental assessment and monitoring: Arctic key gaps and bridging pathways2013Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 8, nr 4, artikel-id 044033Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    The Arctic region undergoes rapid and unprecedented environmental change. Environmental assessment and monitoring is needed to understand and decide how to mitigate and/or adapt to the changes and their impacts on society and ecosystems. This letter analyzes the application of strategic environmental assessment (SEA) and the monitoring, based on environmental observations, that should be part of SEA, elucidates main gaps in both, and proposes an overarching SEA framework to systematically link and improve both with focus on the rapidly changing Arctic region. Shortcomings in the monitoring of environmental change are concretized by examples of main gaps in the observations of Arctic hydroclimatic changes. For relevant identification and efficient reduction of such gaps and remaining uncertainties under typical conditions of limited monitoring resources, the proposed overarching framework for SEA application includes components for explicit gap/uncertainty handling and monitoring, systematically integrated within all steps of the SEA process. The framework further links to adaptive governance, which should explicitly consider key knowledge and information gaps that are identified through and must be handled in the SEA process, and accordingly (re)formulate and promote necessary new or modified monitoring objectives for bridging these gaps. 

  • 9. Balbi, Stefano
    et al.
    Selomane, Odirilwe
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Council for Scientific and Industrial Research, South Africa.
    Sitas, Nadia
    Blanchard, Ryan
    Kotzee, Ilse
    O'Farrell, Patrick
    Villa, Ferdinando
    Human dependence on natural resources in rapidly urbanising South African regions2019Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 14, nr 4, artikel-id 044008Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Enhancing the governance of social-ecological systems for more equitable and sustainable development is hindered by inadequate knowledge about how different social groups and communities rely on natural resources. We used openly accessible national survey data to develop a metric of overall dependence on natural resources. These data contain information about households' sources of water, energy, building materials and food. We used these data in combination with Bayesian learning to model observed patterns of dependence using demographic variables that included: gender of household head, household size, income, house ownership, formality status of settlement, population density, and in-migration rate to the area. We show that a small number of factors-in particular population density and informality of settlements-can explain a significant amount of the observed variation with regards to the use of natural resources. Subsequently, we test the validity of these predictions using alternative, open access data in the eThekwini and Cape Town metropolitan areas of South Africa. We discuss the advantages of using a selection of predictors which could be supplied through remotely sensed and open access data, in terms of opportunities and challenges to produce meaningful results in data-poor areas. With data availability being a common limiting factor in modelling and monitoring exercises, access to inexpensive, up-to-date and free to use data can significantly improve how we monitor progress towards sustainability targets. A small selection of openly accessible demographic variables can predict household's dependence on local natural resources.

  • 10.
    Becher, Marina
    et al.
    Umeå universitet, Institutionen för ekologi, miljö och geovetenskap.
    Olofsson, Johan
    Umeå universitet, Institutionen för ekologi, miljö och geovetenskap.
    Klaminder, Jonatan
    Umeå universitet, Institutionen för ekologi, miljö och geovetenskap.
    Cryogenic disturbance and its impact on carbon fluxes in a subarctic heathland2015Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 10, nr 11, artikel-id 114006Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Differential frost heave, along with the associated cryogenic disturbance that accompanies it, is an almost universal feature of arctic landscapes that potentially influences the fate of the soil carbon (C) stored in arctic soils. In this study, we quantify how gross ecosystem photosynthesis (GEP), soil respiration (Re) and the resulting net ecosystem exchange (NEE) vary in a patterned ground system (non-sorted circles) at plot-scale and whole-patterned ground scales in response to cryogenic disturbances (differential heave and soil surface disruption). We found that: (i) all studied non-sorted circles (n=15) acted as net CO2 sources (positive NEE); (ii) GEP showed a weaker decrease than Re in response to increased cryogenic disturbance/decreased humus cover, indicating that undisturbed humus-covered sites are currently the main source of atmospheric CO2 in the studied system. Interestingly, Re fluxes normalized to C pools indicated that C is currently respired more rapidly at sites exposed to cryogenic disturbances; hence, higher NEE fluxes at less disturbed sites are likely an effect of a more slowly degrading but larger total pool that was built up in the past. Our results highlight the complex effects of cryogenic processes on the C cycle at various time scales. 

  • 11.
    Becher, Marina
    et al.
    Umeå universitet, Teknisk-naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för ekologi, miljö och geovetenskap.
    Olofsson, Johan
    Umeå universitet, Teknisk-naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för ekologi, miljö och geovetenskap.
    Klaminder, Jonatan
    Umeå universitet, Teknisk-naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för ekologi, miljö och geovetenskap.
    Cryogenic disturbance and its impact on carbon fluxes in a subarctic heathland2015Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 10, nr 11, artikel-id 114006Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Differential frost heave, along with the associated cryogenic disturbance that accompanies it, is an almost universal feature of arctic landscapes that potentially influences the fate of the soil carbon (C) stored in arctic soils. In this study, we quantify how gross ecosystem photosynthesis (GEP), soil respiration (Re) and the resulting net ecosystem exchange (NEE) vary in a patterned ground system (non-sorted circles) at plot-scale and whole-patterned ground scales in response to cryogenic disturbances (differential heave and soil surface disruption). We found that: (i) all studied non-sorted circles (n=15) acted as net CO2 sources (positive NEE); (ii) GEP showed a weaker decrease than Re in response to increased cryogenic disturbance/decreased humus cover, indicating that undisturbed humus-covered sites are currently the main source of atmospheric CO2 in the studied system. Interestingly, Re fluxes normalized to C pools indicated that C is currently respired more rapidly at sites exposed to cryogenic disturbances; hence, higher NEE fluxes at less disturbed sites are likely an effect of a more slowly degrading but larger total pool that was built up in the past. Our results highlight the complex effects of cryogenic processes on the C cycle at various time scales. 

  • 12.
    Belusic, Danijel
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Fuentes-Franco, Ramon
    Strandberg, Gustav
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Jukimenko, Alex
    Afforestation reduces cyclone intensity and precipitation extremes over Europe2019Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 14, nr 7, artikel-id UNSP 074009Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
  • 13. Bergström, Lena
    et al.
    Kautsky, Lena
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholms universitets Östersjöcentrum.
    Malm, Torleif
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholms universitets Östersjöcentrum.
    Rosenberg, Rutger
    Wahlberg, Magnus
    Capetillo, Nastassja Åstrand
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholms universitets Östersjöcentrum.
    Wilhelmsson, Dan
    Effects of offshore wind farms on marine wildlife-a generalized impact assessment2014Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 9, nr 3, s. 034012-Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Marine management plans over the world express high expectations to the development of offshore wind energy. This would obviously contribute to renewable energy production, but potential conflicts with other usages of the marine landscape, as well as conservation interests, are evident. The present study synthesizes the current state of understanding on the effects of offshore wind farms on marine wildlife, in order to identify general versus local conclusions in published studies. The results were translated into a generalized impact assessment for coastal waters in Sweden, which covers a range of salinity conditions from marine to nearly fresh waters. Hence, the conclusions are potentially applicable to marine planning situations in various aquatic ecosystems. The assessment considered impact with respect to temporal and spatial extent of the pressure, effect within each ecosystem component, and level of certainty. Research on the environmental effects of offshore wind farms has gone through a rapid maturation and learning process, with the bulk of knowledge being developed within the past ten years. The studies showed a high level of consensus with respect to the construction phase, indicating that potential impacts on marine life should be carefully considered in marine spatial planning. Potential impacts during the operational phase were more locally variable, and could be either negative or positive depending on biological conditions as well as prevailing management goals. There was paucity in studies on cumulative impacts and long-term effects on the food web, as well as on combined effects with other human activities, such as the fisheries. These aspects remain key open issues for a sustainable marine spatial planning.

  • 14.
    Bolin, Karl
    et al.
    Kungliga Tekniska Hogskolan.
    Bluhm, Gosta
    Karolinska Institute.
    Eriksson, Gabriella
    Linköpings universitet, Institutionen för beteendevetenskap och lärande. Linköpings universitet, Filosofiska fakulteten.
    Nilsson, Mats E
    Karolinska Institute.
    Infrasound and low frequency noise from wind turbines: exposure and health effects2011Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 6, nr 3, s. 035103-Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Wind turbines emit low frequency noise (LFN) and large turbines generally generate more LFN than small turbines. The dominant source of LFN is the interaction between incoming turbulence and the blades. Measurements suggest that indoor levels of LFN in dwellings typically are within recommended guideline values, provided that the outdoor level does not exceed corresponding guidelines for facade exposure. Three cross-sectional questionnaire studies show that annoyance from wind turbine noise is related to the immission level, but several explanations other than low frequency noise are probable. A statistically significant association between noise levels and self-reported sleep disturbance was found in two of the three studies. It has been suggested that LFN from wind turbines causes other, and more serious, health problems, but empirical support for these claims is lacking.

  • 15. Bolin, Karl
    et al.
    Bluhm, Gösta
    Eriksson, Gabriella
    Nilsson, Mats E.
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Psykologiska institutionen.
    Infrasound and low frequency noise from wind turbines: exposure and health effects2011Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 6, nr 3, s. 035103-Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Wind turbines emit low frequency noise (LFN) and large turbines generally generate more LFN than small turbines. The dominant source of LFN is the interaction between incoming turbulence and the blades. Measurements suggest that indoor levels of LFN in dwellings typically are within recommended guideline values, provided that the outdoor level does not exceed corresponding guidelines for facade exposure. Three cross-sectional questionnaire studies show that annoyance from wind turbine noise is related to the immission level, but several explanations other than low frequency noise are probable. A statistically significant association between noise levels and self-reported sleep disturbance was found in two of the three studies. It has been suggested that LFN from wind turbines causes other, and more serious, health problems, but empirical support for these claims is lacking.

  • 16.
    Bolin, Karl
    et al.
    KTH, Skolan för teknikvetenskap (SCI), Farkost och flyg, MWL Marcus Wallenberg Laboratoriet.
    Bluhm, Gösta
    Eriksson, Gabriella
    Nilsson, Mats E.
    Infrasound and low frequency noise from wind turbines: exposure and health effects2011Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 6, nr 3, s. 035103-Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Wind turbines emit low frequency noise (LFN) and large turbines generally generate more LFN than small turbines. The dominant source of LFN is the interaction between incoming turbulence and the blades. Measurements suggest that indoor levels of LFN in dwellings typically are within recommended guideline values, provided that the outdoor level does not exceed corresponding guidelines for facade exposure. Three cross-sectional questionnaire studies show that annoyance from wind turbine noise is related to the immission level, but several explanations other than low frequency noise are probable. A statistically significant association between noise levels and self-reported sleep disturbance was found in two of the three studies. It has been suggested that LFN from wind turbines causes other, and more serious, health problems, but empirical support for these claims is lacking.

  • 17. Box, JE
    et al.
    Colgan, WT
    Christensen, TR
    Schmidt, NM
    Lund, M
    Parmentier, F-J W
    Brown, R
    Bhatt, US
    Euskirchen, ES
    Romanovsky, VE
    Walsh, JE
    Overland, JE
    Wang, M
    Corell, RW
    Meier, WN
    Wouters, B
    Mernild, S
    Mård, Johanna
    Uppsala universitet, Teknisk-naturvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Geovetenskapliga sektionen, Institutionen för geovetenskaper, Luft-, vatten och landskapslära.
    Pawlak, J
    Skovgård Olsen, M
    Key indicators of Arctic climate change: 1971–20172019Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 14, nr 4, s. 1-18, artikel-id 045010Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Key observational indicators of climate change in the Arctic, most spanning a 47 year period (1971–2017) demonstrate fundamental changes among nine key elements of the Arctic system. We find that, coherent with increasing air temperature, there is an intensification of the hydrological cycle, evident from increases in humidity, precipitation, river discharge, glacier equilibrium line altitude and land ice wastage. Downward trends continue in sea ice thickness (and extent) and spring snow cover extent and duration, while near-surface permafrost continues to warm. Several of the climate indicators exhibit a significant statistical correlation with air temperature or precipitation, reinforcing the notion that increasing air temperatures and precipitation are drivers of major changes in various components of the Arctic system. To progress beyond a presentation of the Arctic physical climate changes, we find a correspondence between air temperature and biophysical indicators such as tundra biomass and identify numerous biophysical disruptions with cascading effects throughout the trophic levels. These include: increased delivery of organic matter and nutrients to Arctic near‐coastal zones; condensed flowering and pollination plant species periods; timing mismatch between plant flowering and pollinators; increased plant vulnerability to insect disturbance; increased shrub biomass; increased ignition of wildfires; increased growing season CO2 uptake, with counterbalancing increases in shoulder season and winter CO2 emissions; increased carbon cycling, regulated by local hydrology and permafrost thaw; conversion between terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems; and shifting animal distribution and demographics. The Arctic biophysical system is now clearly trending away from its 20th Century state and into an unprecedented state, with implications not only within but beyond the Arctic. The indicator time series of this study are freely downloadable at AMAP.no.

  • 18. Bruckner, Martin
    et al.
    Häyhä, Tiina
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholm Resilience Centre. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria.
    Giljum, Stefan
    Maus, Victor
    Fischer, Günther
    Tramberend, Sylvia
    Börner, Jan
    Quantifying the global cropland footprint of the European Union's non-food bioeconomy2019Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 14, nr 4, artikel-id 045011Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    A rapidly growing share of global agricultural areas is devoted to the production of biomass for non-food purposes. The expanding non-food bioeconomy can have far-reaching social and ecological implications; yet, the non-food sector has attained little attention in land footprint studies. This paper provides the first assessment of the global cropland footprint of non-food products of the European Union (EU), a globally important region regarding its expanding bio-based economy. We apply a novel hybrid land flow accounting model, combining the biophysical trade model LANDFLOW with the multi-regional input-output model EXIOBASE. The developed hybrid approach improves the level of product and country detail, while comprehensively covering all global supply chains from agricultural production to final consumption, including highly processed products, such as many non-food products. The results highlight the EU's role as a major processing and the biggest consuming region of cropland-based non-food products, while at the same time relying heavily on imports. Two thirds of the cropland required to satisfy the EU's non-food biomass consumption are located in other world regions, particularly in China, the US and Indonesia, giving rise to potential impacts on distant ecosystems. With almost 39% in 2010, oilseeds used to produce for example biofuels, detergents and polymers represented the dominant share of the EU's non-food cropland demand. Traditional non-food biomass uses, such as fibre crops for textiles and animal hides and skins for leather products, also contributed notably (22%). Our findings suggest that if the EU Bioeconomy Strategy is to support global sustainable development, a detailed monitoring of land use displacement and spillover effects is decisive for targeted and effective EU policy making.

  • 19. Budhavant, Krishnakant
    et al.
    Andersson, August
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för miljövetenskap och analytisk kemi.
    Bosch, Carme
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för miljövetenskap och analytisk kemi.
    Kruså, Martin
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för miljövetenskap och analytisk kemi.
    Kirillova, E. N.
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för miljövetenskap och analytisk kemi.
    Sheesley, R. J.
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för miljövetenskap och analytisk kemi.
    Safai, P. D.
    Rao, P. S. P.
    Gustafsson, Örjan
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för miljövetenskap och analytisk kemi.
    Radiocarbon-based source apportionment of elemental carbon aerosols at two South Asian receptor observatories over a full annual cycle2015Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 10, nr 6, artikel-id 064004Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Black carbon (BC) aerosols impact climate and air quality. Since BC from fossil versus biomass combustion have different optical properties and different abilities to penetrate the lungs, it is important to better understand their relative contributions in strongly affected regions such as South Asia. This study reports the first year-round C-14-based source apportionment of elemental carbon (EC), the mass-based correspondent to BC, using as regional receptor sites the international Maldives Climate Observatory in Hanimaadhoo (MCOH) and the mountaintop observatory of the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology in Sinhagad, India (SINH). For the highly-polluted winter season (December-March), the fractional contribution to EC from biomass burning (f(bio)) was 53 +/- 5% (n = 6) atMCOHand 56 +/- 3% at SINH (n = 5). The f(bio) for the non-winter remainder was 53 +/- 11% (n = 6) atMCOHand 48 +/- 8%(n = 7) at SINH. This observation-based constraint on near-equal contributions from biomass burning and fossil fuel combustion at both sites compare with predictions from eight technology-based emission inventory (EI) models for India of (f(bio)) EI spanning 55-88%, suggesting that most current EI for Indian BC systematically under predict the relative contribution of fossil fuel combustion. Acontinued iterative testing of bottom-up EI with top-down observational source constraints has the potential to lead to reduced uncertainties regarding EC sources and emissions to the benefit of both models of climate and air quality as well as guide efficient policies to mitigate emissions.

  • 20.
    Bärring, Lars
    et al.
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Strandberg, Gustav
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Does the projected pathway to global warming targets matter?2018Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 13, nr 2, artikel-id 024029Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
  • 21. Büntgen, Ulf
    et al.
    Oliach, Daniel
    Martínez-Peña, Fernando
    Latorre, Joaquin
    Egli, Simon
    Krusic, Paul J.
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för naturgeografi. University of Cambridge, United Kingdom.
    Black truffle winter production depends on Mediterranean summer precipitation2019Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 14, nr 7, artikel-id 074004Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    The unprecedented price inflation of Black truffles, recently exceeding 5000 Euro kg(-1) (in Zurich), is a combined result of increasing global demands and decreasing Mediterranean harvests. Since the effects of long-term irrigation and climate variation on symbiotic fungus-host interaction and the development of belowground microbes are poorly understood, the establishment and maintenance of truffle plantations remains a risky venture. Using 49 years of continuous harvest and climate data from Spain, France and Italy, we demonstrate how truffle production rates, between November and March, significantly rely on previous June-August precipitation totals, whereas too much autumnal rainfall affects the subsequent winter harvest negatively. Despite a complex climate-host-fungus relationship, our findings show that southern European truffle yields can be predicted at highest probability (r = 0.78, t-stat = 5.645, prob = 0.000 01). Moreover, we demonstrate the reliability of national truffle inventories since 1970, and question the timing and dose of many of the currently operating irrigation systems. Finally, our results suggest that Black truffle mycorrhizal colonization of host fine roots, the sexualisation of mycelium, and the formation of peridium are strongly controlled by natural summer rainfall. Recognising the drought-vulnerability of southern Europe's rapidly growing truffle sector, we encourage a stronger liaison between farmers, politicians and scientists to maintain ecological and economic sustainability under predicted climate change in the Mediterranean basin.

  • 22. Carr, J. A.
    et al.
    Seekell, David A.
    Umeå universitet, Teknisk-naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för ekologi, miljö och geovetenskap.
    D'Odorico, P.
    Inequality or injustice in water use for food?2015Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 10, nr 2, artikel-id 024013Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    The global distributions of water availability and population density are uneven and therefore inequality exists in human access to freshwater resources. Is this inequality unjust or only regrettable? To examine this question we formulated and evaluated elementary principles of water ethics relative to human rights for water, and the need for global trade to improve societal access to water by transferring 'virtual water' embedded in plant and animal commodities. We defined human welfare benchmarks and evaluated patterns of water use with and without trade over a 25-year period to identify the influence of trade and inequality on equitability of water use. We found that trade improves mean water use and wellbeing, relative to human welfare benchmarks, suggesting that inequality is regrettable but not necessarily unjust. However, trade has not significantly contributed to redressing inequality. Hence, directed trade decisions can improve future conditions of water and food scarcity through reduced inequality.

  • 23. Carr, Joel A.
    et al.
    D'Odorico, Paolo
    Suweis, Samir
    Seekell, David A.
    Umeå universitet, Teknisk-naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för ekologi, miljö och geovetenskap.
    What commodities and countries impact inequality in the global food system?2016Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 11, nr 9, artikel-id 095013Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    The global distribution of food production is unequal relative to the distribution of human populations. International trade can increase or decrease inequality in food availability, but little is known about how specific countries and commodities contribute to this redistribution. We present a method based on the Gini coefficient for evaluating the contributions of country and commodity specific trade to inequality in the global food system. We applied the method to global food production and trade data for the years 1986-2011 to identify the specific countries and commodities that contribute to increasing and decreasing inequality in global food availability relative to food production. Overall, international trade reduced inequality in food availability by 25%-33% relative to the distribution of food production, depending on the year. Across all years, about 58% of the total trade links acted to reduce inequality with similar to 4% of the links providing 95% of the reduction in inequality. Exports from United States of America, Malaysia, Argentina, and Canada are particularly important in decreasing inequality. Specific commodities that reduce inequality when traded include cereals and vegetables. Some trade connections contribute to increasing inequality, but this effect is mostly concentrated within a small number of commodities including fruits, stimulants, and nuts. In terms of specific countries, exports from Slovenia, Oman, Singapore, and Germany act to increase overall inequality. Collectively, our analysis and results represent an opportunity for building an enhanced understanding of global-scale patterns in food availability.

  • 24.
    Charpentier Ljungqvist, Fredrik
    et al.
    Stockholms universitet, Humanistiska fakulteten, Historiska institutionen. University of Cambridge, United Kingdom.
    Seim, Andrea
    Krusic, Paul J.
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för naturgeografi. University of Cambridge, United Kingdom.
    González-Rouco, Jesús Fidel
    Werner, Johannes P.
    Cook, Edward R.
    Zorita, Eduardo
    Luterbacher, Jürg
    Xoplaki, Elena
    Destouni, Georgia
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för naturgeografi.
    García-Bustainante, Elena
    Aguilar, Camilo Andrés Melo
    Seftigen, Kristina
    Wang, Jianglin
    Gagen, Mary H.
    Esper, Jan
    Solomina, Olga
    Fleitmann, Dominik
    Büntgen, Ulf
    European warm-season temperature and hydroclimate since 850 CE2019Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 14, nr 8, artikel-id 084015Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    The long-term relationship between temperature and hydroclimate has remained uncertain due to the short length of instrumental measurements and inconsistent results from climate model simulations. This lack of understanding is particularly critical with regard to projected drought and flood risks. Here we assess warm-season co-variability patterns between temperature and hydroclimate over Europe back to 850 CE using instrumental measurements, tree-ring based reconstructions, and climate model simulations. We find that the temperature-hydroclimate relationship in both the instrumental and reconstructed data turns more positive at lower frequencies, but less so in model simulations, with a dipole emerging between positive (warm and wet) and negative (warm and dry) associations in northern and southern Europe, respectively. Compared to instrumental data, models reveal a more negative co-variability across all timescales, while reconstructions exhibit a more positive co-variability. Despite the observed differences in the temperature-hydroclimate co-variability patterns in instrumental, reconstructed and model simulated data, we find that all data types share relatively similar phase-relationships between temperature and hydroclimate, indicating the common influence of external forcing. The co-variability between temperature and soil moisture in the model simulations is overestimated, implying a possible overestimation of temperature-driven future drought risks.

  • 25. Colette, Augustin
    et al.
    Andersson, Camilla
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Luftmiljö.
    Baklanov, Alexander
    Bessagnet, Bertrand
    Brandt, Jorgen
    Christensen, Jesper H.
    Doherty, Ruth
    Engardt, Magnuz
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Luftmiljö.
    Geels, Camilla
    Giannakopoulos, Christos
    Hedegaard, Gitte B.
    Katragkou, Eleni
    Langner, Joakim
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Luftmiljö.
    Lei, Hang
    Manders, Astrid
    Melas, Dimitris
    Meleux, Frederik
    Rouil, Laurence
    Sofiev, Mikhail
    Soares, Joana
    Stevenson, David S.
    Tombrou-Tzella, Maria
    Varotsos, Konstantinos V.
    Young, Paul
    Is the ozone climate penalty robust in Europe?2015Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 10, nr 8, artikel-id 084015Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Ozone air pollution is identified as one of the main threats bearing upon human health and ecosystems, with 25 000 deaths in 2005 attributed to surface ozone in Europe (IIASA 2013 TSAP Report #10). In addition, there is a concern that climate change could negate ozone pollution mitigation strategies, making them insufficient over the long run and jeopardising chances to meet the long term objective set by the European Union Directive of 2008 (Directive 2008/50/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 21 May 2008) (60 ppbv, daily maximum). This effect has been termed the ozone climate penalty. One way of assessing this climate penalty is by driving chemistry-transport models with future climate projections while holding the ozone precursor emissions constant (although the climate penalty may also be influenced by changes in emission of precursors). Here we present an analysis of the robustness of the climate penalty in Europe across time periods and scenarios by analysing the databases underlying 11 articles published on the topic since 2007, i.e. a total of 25 model projections. This substantial body of literature has never been explored to assess the uncertainty and robustness of the climate ozone penalty because of the use of different scenarios, time periods and ozone metrics. Despite the variability of model design and setup in this database of 25 model projection, the present meta-analysis demonstrates the significance and robustness of the impact of climate change on European surface ozone with a latitudinal gradient from a penalty bearing upon large parts of continental Europe and a benefit over the North Atlantic region of the domain. Future climate scenarios present a penalty for summertime (JJA) surface ozone by the end of the century (2071-2100) of at most 5 ppbv. Over European land surfaces, the 95% confidence interval of JJA ozone change is [0.44; 0.64] and [0.99; 1.50] ppbv for the 2041-2070 and 2071-2100 time windows, respectively.

  • 26.
    Cvetkovic, Vladimir
    KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Mark- och vattenteknik, Vattenvårdsteknik.
    The tempered one-sided stable density: a universal model for hydrological transport?2011Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 6, nr 3, s. 034008-Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    A generalized distribution for the water residence time in hydrological transport is proposed in the form of the tempered one-sided stable (TOSS) density. It is shown that limiting cases of the TOSS distribution recover virtually all distributions that have been considered in the literature for hydrological transport, from plug flow to flow reactor, the advection-dispersion model, and the gamma and Levy densities. The stable property of TOSS is particularly important, enabling a seamless transition between a time-domain random walk, and the Lagrangian (trajectory) approach along hydrological transport pathways.

  • 27. Dosio, Alessandro
    et al.
    Mentaschi, Lorenzo
    Fischer, Erich M.
    Wyser, Klaus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Extreme heat waves under 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C global warming2018Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 13, nr 5, artikel-id 054006Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
  • 28.
    Downing, Andrea S.
    et al.
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Bhowmik, Avit
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Collste, David
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Université Clermont Auvergne, France.
    Cornell, Sarah E.
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Donges, Jonathan
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany.
    Fetzer, Ingo
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Häyhä, Tiina
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholm Resilience Centre. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria.
    Hinton, Jennifer
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Université Clermont Auvergne, France.
    Lade, Steven
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholm Resilience Centre. The Australian National University, Australia.
    Mooij, Wolf M.
    Matching scope, purpose and uses of planetary boundaries science2019Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 14, nr 7, artikel-id 073005Artikel, forskningsöversikt (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Background: The Planetary Boundaries concept (PBc) has emerged as a key global sustainability concept in international sustainable development arenas. Initially presented as an agenda for global sustainability research, it now shows potential for sustainability governance. Weuse the fact that it is widely cited in scientific literature (>3500 citations) and an extensively studied concept to analyse how it has been used and developed since its first publication. Design: From the literature that cites the PBc, we select those articles that have the terms 'planetary boundaries' or 'safe operating space' in either title, abstract or keywords. Weassume that this literature substantively engages with and develops the PBc. Results: Wefind that 6% of the citing literature engages with the concept. Within this fraction of the literature we distinguish commentaries-that discuss the context and challenges to implementing the PBc, articles that develop the core biogeophysical concept and articles that apply the concept by translating to sub-global scales and by adding a human component to it. Applied literature adds to the concept by explicitly including society through perspectives of impacts, needs, aspirations and behaviours. Discussion: Literature applying the concept does not yet include the more complex, diverse, cultural and behavioural facet of humanity that is implied in commentary literature. Wesuggest there is need for a positive framing of sustainability goals-as a Safe Operating Space rather than boundaries. Key scientific challenges include distinguishing generalised from context-specific knowledge, clarifying which processes are generalizable and which are scalable, and explicitly applying complex systems' knowledge in the application and development of the PBc. We envisage that opportunities to address these challenges will arise when more human social dimensions are integrated, as we learn to feed the global sustainability vision with a plurality of bottom-up realisations of sustainability.

  • 29.
    Drury O'Neill, Elizabeth
    et al.
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Crona, Beatrice
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholm Resilience Centre. The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden.
    Ferrer, Alice Joan G.
    Pomeroy, Robert
    From typhoons to traders: the role of patron-client relations in mediating fishery responses to natural disasters2019Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 14, nr 4, artikel-id 045015Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    The majority of the world's fishers, fishworkers and their dependents live in coastal tropical areas that are, and will be, highly exposed to human-induced climate change. Projections indicate such change could result in coastal populations being more frequently and acutely impacted by natural disasters. Increasing aid interventions is a likely knock-on effect of such scenarios. How these external natural and social disturbances interact and affect local fisheries and small-scale producers is in part determined by the internal dynamics of the social-ecological system (SES). Economic vulnerability often characterizes communities in these settings and influences the means with which they navigate changes. The patron-client system is prolific in many rural economies and small-scale fisheries. It forms a central element in the organization of market interactions and often provides much needed finance for low-income households in place of formal options. How such injection of capital promotes individuals' ability to buffer income fluctuations at the expense of long-term sustainability of the broader fishery system is still an area in need of examination. This paper contributes to shed light on this issue by using a case study approach to trace the historical development of the fishery system in the Iloilo Province (Philippines) in relation to a major natural disaster-super-typhoon Haiyan, known locally as Yolanda-and the subsequent aid intervention that followed. The aim is to assess how the patron-client system filtered these two related disturbances and to highlight the resulting tensions between short-term individual resilience and longer-term SES sustainability.

  • 30.
    Englund, Oskar
    et al.
    Chalmers.
    Berndes, Goran
    Persson, U. Martin
    Sparovek, Gerd
    Oil palm for biodiesel in Brazil-risks and opportunities2015Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 10, nr 4Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Although mainly used for other purposes, and historically mainly established at the expense of tropical forests, oil palm can be the most land efficient feedstock for biodiesel. Large parts of Brazil are suitable for oil palm cultivation and a series of policy initiatives have recently been launched to promote oil palm production. These initiatives are however highly debated both in the parliament and in academia. Here we present results of a high resolution modelling study of opportunities and risks associated with oil palm production for biodiesel in Brazil, under different energy, policy, and infrastructure scenarios. Oil palm was found to be profitable on extensive areas, including areas under native vegetation where establishment would cause large land use change (LUC) emissions. However, some 40-60 Mha could support profitable biodiesel production corresponding to approximately 10% of the global diesel demand, without causing direct LUC emissions or impinging on protected areas. Pricing of LUC emissions could make oil palm production unprofitable on most lands where conversion would impact on native ecosystems and carbon stocks, if the carbon price is at the level $125/tC, or higher.

  • 31. Fader, Marianela
    et al.
    Rulli, Maria Cristina
    Carr, Joel
    Dell'Angelo, Jampel
    D'Odorico, Paolo
    Gephart, Jessica A.
    Kummu, Matti
    Magliocca, Nicholas
    Porkka, Miina
    Prell, Christina
    Puma, Michael J.
    Ratajczak, Zak
    Seekell, David A.
    Umeå universitet, Teknisk-naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för ekologi, miljö och geovetenskap.
    Suweis, Samir
    Tavoni, Alessandro
    Past and present biophysical redundancy of countries as a buffer to changes in food supply2016Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 11, nr 5, artikel-id 055008Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Spatially diverse trends in population growth, climate change, industrialization, urbanization and economic development are expected to change future food supply and demand. These changes may affect the suitability of land for food production, implying elevated risks especially for resource-constrained, food-importing countries. We present the evolution of biophysical redundancy for agricultural production at country level, from 1992 to 2012. Biophysical redundancy, defined as unused biotic and abiotic environmental resources, is represented by the potential food production of 'spare land', available water resources (i.e., not already used for human activities), as well as production increases through yield gap closure on cultivated areas and potential agricultural areas. In 2012, the biophysical redundancy of 75 (48) countries, mainly in North Africa, Western Europe, the Middle East and Asia, was insufficient to produce the caloric nutritional needs for at least 50% (25%) of their population during a year. Biophysical redundancy has decreased in the last two decades in 102 out of 155 countries, 11 of these went from high to limited redundancy, and nine of these from limited to very low redundancy. Although the variability of the drivers of change across different countries is high, improvements in yield and population growth have a clear impact on the decreases of redundancy towards the very low redundancy category. We took a more detailed look at countries classified as 'Low Income Economies (LIEs)' since they are particularly vulnerable to domestic or external food supply changes, due to their limited capacity to offset for food supply decreases with higher purchasing power on the international market. Currently, nine LIEs have limited or very low biophysical redundancy. Many of these showed a decrease in redundancy over the last two decades, which is not always linked with improvements in per capita food availability.

  • 32.
    Flach, Rafaela
    et al.
    Linköpings universitet, Institutionen för tema. Linköpings universitet, Filosofiska fakulteten. IMPRS ESM, Germany.
    Ran, Ylva
    Stockholm Environm Institute, Sweden; Wageningen University, Netherlands.
    Godar, Javier
    Stockholm Environm Institute, Sweden.
    Karlberg, Louise
    Stockholm Environm Institute, Sweden.
    Suavet, Clement
    Stockholm Environm Institute, Sweden.
    Towards more spatially explicit assessments of virtual water flows: linking local water use and scarcity to global demand of Brazilian farming commodities2016Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 11, nr 7, s. 075003-Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Global consumption of farming commodities is an important driver of water demand in regions of production. This is the case in Brazil, which has emerged as one of the main producers of globally traded farming commodities. Traditional methods to assess environmental implications of this demand rely on international trade material flows at country resolution; we argue for the need of finer scales that capture spatial heterogeneity in environmental variables in the regions of production, and that account for differential sourcing within the borders of a country of production. Toillustrate this, we obtain virtual water flows from Brazilian municipalities to countries of consumption, by allocating high-resolution water footprints of sugarcane and soy production to spatially-explicit material trade flows. We found that this approach results in differences of virtual water use estimations of over 20% when compared to approaches that disregard spatial heterogeneity in sourcing patterns, for three of the main consumers of the analysed crops. This discrepancy against methods using national resolution in trade flows is determined by national heterogeneity in water resources, and differential sourcing. To illustrate the practical implications of this approach, we relate virtual water flows to water stress, identifying where global demand for water coincides with high levels of water stress. For instance, the virtual water flows for Brazilian sugarcane sourced by China were disproportionally less associated to areas with higher water stress when compared to those of the EU, due to EUs much higher reliance on sugarcane from water scarce areas in Northeast Brazil. Our findings indicate that the policy relevance of current assessments of virtual water flows that rely on trade data aggregated at the national level may be hampered, as they do not capture the spatial heterogeneity in water resources, water use and water management options.

  • 33. Futter, M. N.
    et al.
    Klaminder, Jonatan
    Umeå universitet, Teknisk-naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för ekologi, miljö och geovetenskap.
    Lucas, R. W.
    Laudon, H.
    Kohler, S. J.
    Uncertainty in silicate mineral weathering rate estimates: source partitioning and policy implications2012Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 7, nr 2, s. 024025-Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Precise and accurate estimates of silicate mineral weathering rates are crucial when setting policy targets for long-term forest sustainability, critical load calculations and assessing consequences of proposed geo-engineering solutions to climate change. In this paper, we scrutinize 394 individual silicate mineral weathering estimates from 82 sites on three continents. We show that within-site differences of several hundred per cent arise when different methods are used to estimate weathering rates, mainly as a result of uncertainties related to input data rather than conceptually different views of the weathering process. While different methods tend to rank sites congruently from high to low weathering rates, large within-site differences in estimated weathering rate suggest that policies relying on quantitative estimates based upon a single method may have undesirable outcomes. We recommend the use of at least three independent estimates when making management decisions related to silicate mineral weathering rates.

  • 34. Gephart, Jessica A.
    et al.
    Rovenskaya, Elena
    Dieckmann, Ulf
    Pace, Michael L.
    Brännström, Åke
    Umeå universitet, Teknisk-naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för matematik och matematisk statistik.
    Vulnerability to shocks in the global seafood trade network2016Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 11, nr 3, artikel-id 035008Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Trade can allow countries to overcome local or regional losses (shocks) to their food supply, but reliance on international food trade also exposes countries to risks from external perturbations. Countries that are nutritionally or economically dependent on international trade of a commodity may be adversely affected by such shocks. While exposure to shocks has been studied in financial markets, communication networks, and some infrastructure systems, it has received less attention in food-trade networks. Here, we develop a forward shock-propagation model to quantify how trade flows are redistributed under a range of shock scenarios and assess the food-security outcomes by comparing changes in national fish supplies to indices of each country's nutritional fish dependency. Shock propagation and distribution among regions are modeled on a network of historical bilateral seafood trade data from UN Comtrade using 205 reporting territories grouped into 18 regions. In our model exposure to shocks increases with total imports and the number of import partners. We find that Central and West Africa are the most vulnerable to shocks, with their vulnerability increasing when a willingness-to-pay proxy is included. These findings suggest that countries can reduce their overall vulnerability to shocks by reducing reliance on imports and diversifying food sources. As international seafood trade grows, identifying these types of potential risks and vulnerabilities is important to build a more resilient food system.

  • 35.
    Gordon, Line
    et al.
    Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden.
    Crona, Bea
    Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden; Global Economic Dynamics and the Biosphere Program, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Stockholm, Sweden.
    Henriksson, Patrik
    Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden; WorldFish, Jalan Batu Maung, Bayan Lepas, Penang, Malaysia.
    van Holt, Tracy
    Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden; Global Economic Dynamics and the Biosphere Program, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Stockholm, Sweden; Leonard N Stern School of Business, Center for Sustainable Business, New York, NY, United States.
    Jonell, Malin
    Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden.
    Lindahl, Therese
    Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden; Beijer Institute of Ecological Economics, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Stockholm, Sweden.
    Troell, Max
    Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden; Beijer Institute of Ecological Economics, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Stockholm, Sweden.
    Barthel, Stephan
    Högskolan i Gävle, Akademin för teknik och miljö, Avdelningen för bygg- energi- och miljöteknik, Miljöteknik. Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden.
    Deutsch, Lisa
    Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden.
    Folke, Carl
    Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden; Global Economic Dynamics and the Biosphere Program, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Stockholm, Sweden; Beijer Institute of Ecological Economics, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Stockholm, Sweden.
    Haider, L. Jamila
    Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden.
    Rockström, Johan
    Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden.
    Queiroz, Cibele
    Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden.
    Rewiring food systems to enhance human health and biosphere stewardship.2017Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 12, nr 10, artikel-id 100201Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Food lies at the heart of both health and sustainability challenges. We use a social-ecological framework to illustrate how major changes to the volume, nutrition and safety of food systems between 1961 and today impact health and sustainability. These changes have almost halved undernutrition while doubling the proportion who are overweight. They have also resulted in reduced resilience of the biosphere, pushing four out of six analysed planetary boundaries across the safe operating space of the biosphere. Our analysis further illustrates that consumers and producers have become more distant from one another, with substantial power consolidated within a small group of key actors. Solutions include a shift from a volume-focused production system to focus on quality, nutrition, resource use efficiency, and reduced antimicrobial use. To achieve this, we need to rewire food systems in ways that enhance transparency between producers and consumers, mobilize key actors to become biosphere stewards, and re-connect people to the biosphere

  • 36.
    Gordon, Line J.
    et al.
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Bignet, Victoria
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Crona, Beatrice
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholm Resilience Centre. The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden.
    Henriksson, Patrik J. G.
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholm Resilience Centre. WorldFish, Penang, Malaysia.
    Van Holt, Tracy
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholm Resilience Centre. The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden; Center for Sustainable Business, United States of America.
    Jonell, Malin
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Lindahl, Therese
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholm Resilience Centre. The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden.
    Troell, Max
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholm Resilience Centre. The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden.
    Barthel, Stephan
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholm Resilience Centre. University of Gävle, Sweden.
    Deutsch, Lisa
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Folke, Carl
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholm Resilience Centre. The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Sweden.
    Haider, L. Jamila
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Rockström, Johan
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Queiroz, Cibele
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Rewiring food systems to enhance human health and biosphere stewardship2017Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 12, nr 10, artikel-id 100201Artikel i tidskrift (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
    Abstract [en]

    Food lies at the heart of both health and sustainability challenges. We use a social-ecological framework to illustrate how major changes to the volume, nutrition and safety of food systems between 1961 and today impact health and sustainability. These changes have almost halved undernutrition while doubling the proportion who are overweight. They have also resulted in reduced resilience of the biosphere, pushing four out of six analysed planetary boundaries across the safe operating space of the biosphere. Our analysis further illustrates that consumers and producers have become more distant from one another, with substantial power consolidated within a small group of key actors. Solutions include a shift from a volume-focused production system to focus on quality, nutrition, resource use efficiency, and reduced antimicrobial use. To achieve this, we need to rewire food systems in ways that enhance transparency between producers and consumers, mobilize key actors to become biosphere stewards, and re-connect people to the biosphere.

  • 37. Hattermann, F. F.
    et al.
    Vetter, T.
    Breuer, L.
    Su, Buda
    Daggupati, P.
    Donnelly, Chantal
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Hydrologi.
    Fekete, B.
    Floerke, F.
    Gosling, S. N.
    Hoffmann, P.
    Liersch, S.
    Masaki, Y.
    Motovilov, Y.
    Mueller, C.
    Samaniego, L.
    Stacke, T.
    Wada, Y.
    Yang, T.
    Krysnaova, V.
    Sources of uncertainty in hydrological climate impact assessment: a cross-scale study2018Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 13, nr 1, artikel-id 015006Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
  • 38.
    Hegre, Håvard
    et al.
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för freds- och konfliktforskning. Peace Res Inst Oslo, POB 9229, NO-0134 Oslo, Norway..
    Buhaug, Halvard
    Peace Res Inst Oslo, POB 9229, NO-0134 Oslo, Norway.;Norwegian Univ Sci & Technol, Dept Sociol & Polit Sci, NO-7491 Trondheim, Norway..
    Calvin, Katherine V.
    Pacific NW Natl Lab, Joint Global Change Res Inst, College Pk, MD 20742 USA..
    Nordkvelle, Jonas
    Peace Res Inst Oslo, POB 9229, NO-0134 Oslo, Norway.;Univ Oslo, Dept Polit Sci, POB 1072 Blindern, NO-0316 Oslo, Norway..
    Waldhoff, Stephanie T.
    Pacific NW Natl Lab, Joint Global Change Res Inst, College Pk, MD 20742 USA.
    Gilmore, Elisabeth
    Univ Maryland, Sch Publ Policy, College Pk, MD 20742 USA..
    Forecasting civil conflict along the shared socioeconomic pathways2016Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 11, nr 5, artikel-id 054002Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Climate change and armed civil conflict are both linked to socioeconomic development, although conditions that facilitate peace may not necessarily facilitate mitigation and adaptation to climate change. While economic growth lowers the risk of conflict, it is generally associated with increased greenhouse gas emissions and costs of climate mitigation policies. This study investigates the links between growth, climate change, and conflict by simulating future civil conflict using new scenario data for five alternative socioeconomic pathways with different mitigation and adaptation assumptions, known as the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). We develop a statistical model of the historical effect of key socioeconomic variables on country-specific conflict incidence, 1960-2013. We then forecast the annual incidence of conflict, 2014-2100, along the five SSPs. We find that SSPs with high investments in broad societal development are associated with the largest reduction in conflict risk. This is most pronounced for the least developed countries-poverty alleviation and human capital investments in poor countries are much more effective instruments to attain global peace and stability than further improvements to wealthier economies. Moreover, the SSP that describes a sustainability pathway, which poses the lowest climate change challenges, is as conducive to global peace as the conventional development pathway.

  • 39. Hellmann, Lena
    et al.
    Agafonov, Leonid
    Charpentier Ljungqvist, Fredrik
    Stockholms universitet, Humanistiska fakulteten, Historiska institutionen.
    Churakova (Sidorova), Olga
    Duethorn, Elisabeth
    Esper, Jan
    Hulsmann, Lisa
    Kirdyanov, Alexander V.
    Moiseev, Pavel
    Myglan, Vladimir S.
    Nikolaev, Anatoly N.
    Reinig, Frederick
    Schweingruber, Fritz H.
    Solomina, Olga
    Tegel, Willy
    Buntgen, Ulf
    Diverse growth trends and climate responses across Eurasia's boreal forest2016Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 11, nr 7Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    The area covered by boreal forests accounts for similar to 16% of the global and 22% of the Northern Hemisphere landmass. Changes in the productivity and functioning of this circumpolar biome not only have strong effects on species composition and diversity at regional to larger scales, but also on the Earth's carbon cycle. Although temporal inconsistency in the response of tree growth to temperature has been reported from some locations at the higher northern latitudes, a systematic dendroecological network assessment is still missing for most of the boreal zone. Here, we analyze the geographical patterns of changes in summer temperature and precipitation across northern Eurasia >60 degrees N since 1951 AD, as well as the growth trends and climate responses of 445 Pinus, Larix and Picea ring width chronologies in the same area and period. In contrast to widespread summer warming, fluctuations in precipitation and tree growth are spatially more diverse and overall less distinct. Although the influence of summer temperature on ring formation is increasing with latitude and distinct moisture effects are restricted to a few southern locations, growth sensitivity to June-July temperature variability is only significant at 16.6% of all sites (p <= 0.01). By revealing complex climate constraints on the productivity of Eurasia's northern forests, our results question the a priori suitability of boreal tree-ring width chronologies for reconstructing summer temperatures. This study further emphasizes regional climate differences and their role on the dynamics of boreal ecosystems, and also underlines the importance of free data access to facilitate the compilation and evaluation of massively replicated and updated dendroecological networks.

  • 40.
    Henders, Sabine
    et al.
    Linköpings universitet, Institutionen för tema, Tema Miljöförändring. Linköpings universitet, Filosofiska fakulteten. Linköpings universitet, Institutionen för tema, Centrum för klimatpolitisk forskning.
    Persson, U. Martin
    Physical Resource Theory, Chalmers University of Technology, Göteborg, Sweden.
    Kastner, Thomas
    Institute of Social Ecology Vienna, Alpen Adria University of Klagenfurt, Vienna, Austria.
    Trading forests: land-use change and carbon emissions embodied in production and exports of forest-risk commodities2015Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 10, nr 12, s. 125012-Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Production of commercial agricultural commodities for domestic and foreign markets is increasingly driving land clearing in tropical regions, creating links and feedback effects between geographically separated consumption and production locations. Such teleconnections are commonly studied through calculating consumption footprints and quantifying environmental impacts embodied in trade flows, e.g., virtual water and land, biomass, or greenhouse gas emissions. The extent to which land-use change (LUC) and associated carbon emissions are embodied in the production and export of agricultural commodities has been less studied. Here we quantify tropical deforestation area and carbon emissions from LUC induced by the production and the export of four commodities (beef, soybeans, palm oil, and wood products) in seven countries with high deforestation rates (Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Paraguay, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Papua New Guinea). We show that in the period 2000-2011, the production of the four analyzed commodities in our seven case countries was responsible for 40% of total tropical deforestation and resulting carbon losses. Over a third of these impacts was embodied in exports in 2011, up from a fifth in 2000. This trend highlights the growing influence of global markets in deforestation dynamics. Main flows of embodied LUC are Latin American beef and soybean exports to markets in Europe, China, the former Soviet bloc, the Middle East and Northern Africa, whereas embodied emission flows are dominated by Southeast Asian exports of palm oil and wood products to consumers in China, India and the rest of Asia, as well as to the European Union. Our findings illustrate the growing role that global consumers play in tropical LUC trajectories and highlight the need for demand-side policies covering whole supply chains. We also discuss the limitations of such demand-side measures and call for a combination of supply- and demand-side policies to effectively limit tropical deforestation, along with research into the interactions of different types of policy interventions.

  • 41.
    Henriksson, Patrik John Gustav
    et al.
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholm Resilience Centre. WorldFish, Malaysia; The Royal Swedish Academy of Science, Sweden.
    Banks, Lauren K.
    Suri, Sharon K.
    Pratiwi, Trini Y.
    Fatan, Nurulhuda Ahmad
    Troell, Max
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholm Resilience Centre. The Royal Swedish Academy of Science, Sweden.
    Indonesian aquaculture futures-identifying interventions for reducing environmental impacts2019Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 14, nr 12, artikel-id 124062Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Indonesia is the world's second largest producer and third largest consumer of seafood. Fish is therefore essential to the nation, both financially and nutritionally. Overfishing and the effects of climate change will, however, limit future landings of capture fisheries, so any increases in future seafood production will need to come from aquaculture. The ecological effects of aquaculture are dependent upon the choice of species, management, and where it is sited. In the present study we use life cycle assessment (LCA) to evaluate how possible interventions and innovations can mitigate environmental impacts related to the aquaculture sector's growth. The mitigation potential of six interventions were also quantified, namely (1) FCR reductions for whiteleg shrimp, carp, and tilapia; (2) sustainable intensification of milkfish and Asian tiger shrimp polyculture; (3) shifting groupers from whole fish diets to pellets; (4) favoring freshwater finfish over shrimp; (5) renewable electricity; and (6) reduced food waste and improved byproduct utilization. If all six interventions are implemented, we demonstrate that global warming, acidification, eutrophication, land occupation, freshwater use, and fossil energy use could be reduced by between 28% and 49% per unit of fish. The addition of many innovations that could not be quantified in the present study, including innovative feed ingredients, suggest that production could double within the current environmental footprint. This does not, however, satisfy the expected 3.25-fold increase under a business-as-usual scenario, neither does it satisfy the government's growth targets. We therefore also explore possible geographical areas across Indonesia where aquaculture expansions and ecological hotspots may conflict. Conclusively, we advocate more conservative production targets and investment in more sustainable farming practices. To accelerate the implementation of these improvements, it will be central to identify the most cost-effective aquaculture interventions.

  • 42.
    Hieronymus, Magnus
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Oceanografi.
    An update on the thermosteric sea level rise commitment to global warming2019Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 14, nr 5, artikel-id 054018Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
  • 43. Huang, Kaicheng
    et al.
    Yi, Chuixiang
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Meteorologiska institutionen (MISU). City University of New York, USA.
    Wu, Donghai
    Zhou, Tao
    Zhao, Xiang
    Blanford, William J.
    Wei, Suhua
    Wu, Hao
    Ling, Du
    Li, Zheng
    Tipping point of a conifer forest ecosystem under severe drought2015Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 10, nr 2, artikel-id 024011Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Drought-induced tree mortality has recently received considerable attention. Questions have arisen over the necessary intensity and duration thresholds of droughts that are sufficient to trigger rapid forest declines. The values of such tipping points leading to forest declines due to drought are presently unknown. In this study, we have evaluated the potential relationship between the level of tree growth and concurrent drought conditions with data of the tree growth-related ring width index (RWI) of the two dominant conifer species (Pinus edulis and Pinus ponderosa) in the Southwestern United State  (SWUS) and the meteorological drought-related standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). In this effort, we determined the binned averages of RWI and the 11 month SPEI within the month of July within each bin of 30 of RWI in the range of 0–3000.Wefound a significant correlation between the binned averages of RWI and SPEI at the regional-scale under dryer conditions. The tipping point of forest declines to drought is predicted by the regression model as SPEItp = −1.64 and RWItp = 0, that is, persistence of the water deficit (11 month) with intensity of −1.64 leading to negligible growth for the conifer species. When climate conditions are wetter, the correlation between the binned averages ofRWI and SPEI is weaker which we believe is most likely due to soil water and atmospheric moisture levels no longer being the dominant factor limiting tree growth.Wealso illustrate a potential application of the derived tipping point (SPEItp = −1.64) through an examination of the 2002 extreme drought event in theSWUSconifer forest regions. Distinguished differences in remote-sensing based NDVI anomalies were found between the two regions partitioned by the derived tipping point.

  • 44. Hölting, Lisanne
    et al.
    Jacobs, Sander
    Felipe-Lucia, María R.
    Maes, Joachim
    Norström, Albert
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Plieninger, Tobias
    Cord, Anna F.
    Measuring ecosystem multifunctionality across scales2019Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 14, nr 12, artikel-id 124083Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Multifunctionality refers to the capacity of an area to supply multiple ecosystem functions or services. While many conceptual and methodological advances have focused on defining and quantifying multifunctionality, the challenge of dealing with cross-scale dynamics of multifunctionality remains open. This study proposes a new way of measuring multifunctionality across spatial scales, illustrated with a European-wide dataset of 18 ecosystem services. Our assessment captures not only the diversity of ecosystem services supplied within each municipality (alpha-multifunctionality), but also the unique contribution of each municipality to the regional ecosystem service diversity (beta-multifunctionality). This cross-scale analysis helps better understanding the spatial distribution of ecosystem services, which is required to design management and policies at the right scale. Our analysis shows that alpha-multifunctionality follows a latitudinal gradient across Europe and strongly decreases towards the city centers of metropolitan areas. By relating alpha- and beta-multifunctionality to land use intensity, we show that low-intensity management systems support higher ecosystem multifunctionality across Europe. Municipalities of low alpha-multifunctionality often contribute significantly to regional multifunctionality, by providing ecosystem services of a specific value to the region. Our method to measure both alpha- and beta-multifunctionality thus provides a new way to inform reconciliation of competing land uses when maximizing alpha-multifunctionality is not reasonable.

  • 45.
    Jaramillo, Fernando
    et al.
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för naturgeografi. Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Florida International University, United States of America.
    Brown, Ian
    Castellazzi, Pascal
    Espinosa, Luisa
    Guittard, Alice
    Hong, Sang-Hoon
    Rivera-Monroy, Victor H.
    Wdowinski, Shimon
    Assessment of hydrologic connectivity in an ungauged wetland with InSAR observations2018Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 13, nr 2, artikel-id 024003Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    The Cienaga Grande de Santa Marta (CGSM) is one of the world's most productive tropical wetlands and one that has witnessed some of the greatest recorded dieback of mangroves. Human-driven loss of hydrologic connectivity by roads, artificial channels and water flow regulation appears to be the reason behind mangrove mortality in this ungauged wetland. In this study, we determined the CGSM's current state of hydrologic connectivity by combining a remote sensing technique, termed as Wetland Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR), with a hydrologic study of river water discharge. For this research, we processed 29 ALOS-PALSAR acquisitions taken during the period 2007-2011 and generated 66 interferograms that provide information on relative surface water level changes. We found that change in water discharge upstream on the main tributary of the CGSM could explain at most 17% of the variance of the change in water level in the CGSM. Fresh water inputs into the wetland were identified only when the mean daily water discharge in the river exceeded 700m(3) s(-1), which corresponds to only 30% of the days during the period. The interferogram analysis also revealed that artificial channels within the wetland serve as barriers to water flow and contribute to the overall loss in hydrologic connectivity. We recommend increasing fresh water inputs from the Magdalena River by reducing water regulation of fresh water from the river and improving connectivity on either side of the artificial channels crossing the CGSM. This study emphasizes the potential of the application of wetland InSAR to determine hydrologic connectivity in wetlands that are completely or poorly ungauged and to define the necessary guidelines for wetland hydrologic restoration.

  • 46. Jägermeyr, J.
    et al.
    Gerten, D.
    Schaphoff, S.
    Heinke, J.
    Lucht, W.
    Rockström, Johan
    Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
    Integrated crop water management might sustainably halve the global food gap2016Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 11, nr 2, artikel-id 025002Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    As planetary boundaries are rapidly being approached, humanity has little room for additional expansion and conventional intensification of agriculture, while a growing world population further spreads the food gap. Ample evidence exists that improved on-farm water management can close water-related yield gaps to a considerable degree, but its global significance remains unclear. In this modeling study we investigate systematically to what extent integrated crop water management might contribute to closing the global food gap, constrained by the assumption that pressure on water resources and land does not increase. Using a process-based bio-/agrosphere model, we simulate the yield-increasing potential of elevated irrigation water productivity (including irrigation expansion with thus saved water) and optimized use of in situ precipitation water (alleviated soil evaporation, enhanced infiltration, water harvesting for supplemental irrigation) under current and projected future climate (from 20 climate models, with and without beneficial CO2 effects). Results show that irrigation efficiency improvements can save substantial amounts of water in many river basins (globally 48% of non-productive water consumption in an 'ambitious' scenario), and if rerouted to irrigate neighboring rainfed systems, can boost kcal production significantly (26% global increase). Low-tech solutions for small-scale farmers on water-limited croplands show the potential to increase rainfed yields to a similar extent. In combination, the ambitious yet achievable integrated water management strategies explored in this study could increase global production by 41% and close the water-related yield gap by 62%. Unabated climate change will have adverse effects on crop yields in many regions, but improvements in water management as analyzed here can buffer such effects to a significant degree.

  • 47. Keune, H.
    et al.
    Kretsch, C.
    De Blust, G.
    Gilbert, M.
    Flandroy, L.
    Van den Berge, K.
    Versteirt, V.
    Hartig, Terry
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutet för bostads- och urbanforskning (IBF).
    De Keersmaecker, L.
    Eggermont, H.
    Brosens, D.
    Dessein, J.
    Vanwambeke, S.
    Prieur-Richard, A. H.
    Wittmer, H.
    Van Herzele, A.
    Linard, C.
    Martens, P.
    Mathijs, E.
    Simoens, I.
    Van Damme, P.
    Volckaert, F.
    Heyman, P.
    Bauler, T.
    Science-policy challenges for biodiversity, public health and urbanization: examples from Belgium2013Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 8, nr 2, s. 025015-Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Internationally, the importance of a coordinated effort to protect both biodiversity and public health is more and more recognized. These issues are often concentrated or particularly challenging in urban areas, and therefore on-going urbanization worldwide raises particular issues both for the conservation of living natural resources and for population health strategies. These challenges include significant difficulties associated with sustainable management of urban ecosystems, urban development planning, social cohesion and public health. An important element of the challenge is the need to interface between different forms of knowledge and different actors from science and policy. We illustrate this with examples from Belgium, showcasing concrete cases of human-nature interaction. To better tackle these challenges, since 2011, actors in science, policy and the broader Belgian society have launched a number of initiatives to deal in a more integrated manner with combined biodiversity and public health challenges in the face of ongoing urbanization. This emerging community of practice in Belgium exemplifies the importance of interfacing at different levels. (1) Bridges must be built between science and the complex biodiversity/ecosystem-human/public health-urbanization phenomena. (2) Bridges between different professional communities and disciplines are urgently needed. (3) Closer collaboration between science and policy, and between science and societal practice is needed. Moreover, within each of these communities closer collaboration between specialized sections is needed.

  • 48. Kivinen, Sonja
    et al.
    Kaarlejärvi, Elina
    Umeå universitet, Teknisk-naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för ekologi, miljö och geovetenskap.
    Jylha, Kirsti
    Raisanen, Jouni
    Spatiotemporal distribution of threatened high-latitude snowbed and snow patch habitats in warming climate2012Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 7, nr 3, s. 034024-Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    We studied the interannual variation of late summer snow covered area (SCA), i.e. snowbeds and permanent snow patches, in northern Finland and analyzed the role of topographical factors and climatic conditions on the recent and future occurrence of summer snow. SCA for the years 2000, 2004, 2006 and 2009 was derived from Landsat images using a normalized difference snow index (NDSI). Late summer SCA varied notably between the years (1.5-23.0 km(2)). A major part of the late summer snow was located above 900-1000 m and on northern and eastern slopes. A generalized additive model (GAM) showed that the number of years with snow present in 1 km grid squares was strongly positively related to altitude and terrain ruggedness. Parallel examination of interannual variation of SCA and climatic conditions showed that snow cover declines were linked to relatively low snowfall-to-rainfall ratios. Annual mean air temperatures, particularly spring and early winter temperatures, showed increasing trends during the study period. Projected increases in air temperatures and rainfall suggest earlier and more efficient snow melt in the future. This may threaten the occurrence of species and communities related to snowbeds and decrease the beta-diversity of the landscape, and could also affect ecosystem services of the region.

  • 49.
    Klaminder, Jonatan
    et al.
    Umeå universitet, Teknisk-naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för ekologi, miljö och geovetenskap.
    Jonsson, Micael
    Umeå universitet, Teknisk-naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för ekologi, miljö och geovetenskap.
    Fick, Jerker
    Umeå universitet, Teknisk-naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Kemiska institutionen.
    Sundelin, Anna
    Umeå universitet, Teknisk-naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för ekologi, miljö och geovetenskap.
    Brodin, Tomas
    Umeå universitet, Teknisk-naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för ekologi, miljö och geovetenskap.
    The conceptual imperfection of aquatic risk assessment tests: highlighting the need for tests designed to detect therapeutic effects of pharmaceutical contaminants2014Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 9, nr 8, s. 084003-Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Standardized ecotoxicological tests still constitute the fundamental tools when doing risk-assessment of aquatic contaminants. These protocols are managed towards minimal mortality in the controls, which is not representative for natural systems where mortality is often high. This methodological bias, generated from assays where mortality in the control group is systematically disregarded, makes it difficult to measure therapeutic effects of pharmaceutical contaminants leading to lower mortality. This is of concern considering that such effects on exposed organisms still may have substantial ecological consequences. In this paper, we illustrate this conceptual problem by presenting empirical data for how the therapeutic effect of Oxazepam-a common contaminant of surface waters-lower mortality rates among exposed Eurasian perch (Perca fluviatilis) from wild populations, at two different life stages. We found that fry hatched from roe that had been exposed to dilute concentrations (1.1 +/- 0.3 mu g l(-1)) of Oxazepam for 24 h 3-6 days prior to hatching showed lower mortality rates and increased activity 30 days after hatching. Similar effects, i.e. increased activity and lower mortality rates were also observed for 2-year old perch exposed to dilute Oxazepam concentrations (1.2 +/- 0.4 mu g l(-1)). We conclude that therapeutic effects from pharmaceutical contaminants need to be considered in risk assessment assays to avoid that important ecological effects from aquatic contaminants are systematically missed.

  • 50. Klutse, Nana Ama Browne
    et al.
    Ajayi, Vincent O.
    Gbobaniyi, Bode
    SMHI, Affärsverksamhet.
    Egbebiyi, Temitope S.
    Kouadio, Kouakou
    Nkrumah, Francis
    Quagraine, Kwesi Akumenyi
    Olusegun, Christiana
    Diasso, Ulrich
    Abiodun, Babatunde J.
    Lawal, Kamoru
    Nikulin, Grigory
    SMHI, Forskningsavdelningen, Klimatforskning - Rossby Centre.
    Lennard, Christopher
    Dosio, Alessandro
    Potential impact of 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C global warming on consecutive dry and wet days over West Africa2018Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 13, nr 5, artikel-id 055013Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
123 1 - 50 av 113
RefereraExporteraLänk till träfflistan
Permanent länk
Referera
Referensformat
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Annat format
Fler format
Språk
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Annat språk
Fler språk
Utmatningsformat
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf