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  • 1.
    Alexius, Annika
    et al.
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Nationalekonomiska institutionen.
    Post, Erik
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Nationalekonomiska institutionen.
    Exchange rates and asymmetric shocks in small open economies2008Ingår i: Empirical Economics, ISSN 0377-7332, E-ISSN 1435-8921, Vol. 35, nr 3, s. 527-541Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    We study the stabilizing properties of exchange rates in five small open economies during to periods of floating exchange rates and inflation targeting. In the cases of Sweden and Canada, the nominal exchange rates behave in a stabilizing manner. Most exchange rate movements emanate from the exchange rate itself and are hence not responses to fundamental shocks. However, these non-fundamental shocks have only negligible effects on output and inflation. Our findings indicate that exchange rates display some stabilizing properties but can mainly be characterized as disconnected from the rest of the economy.

  • 2.
    Ankargren, Sebastian
    et al.
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Statistiska institutionen.
    Bjellerup, Mårten
    Swedish National Debt Office, Stockholm, Sweden.
    Shahnazarian, Hovick
    Ministry of Finance, Stockholm, Sweden.
    The importance of the financial system for the real economy2017Ingår i: Empirical Economics, ISSN 0377-7332, E-ISSN 1435-8921, Vol. 53, nr 4, s. 1553-1586Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper first describes financial variables that have been constructed to correspond to various channels in the transmission mechanism. Next, a Bayesian VAR model for the macroeconomy, with priors on the steady states, is augmented with these financial variables and estimated using Swedish data for 1989–2015. The results support three conclusions. First, the financial system is important and the strength of the results is dependent on identification, with the financial variables accounting for 10–25 % of the forecast error variance of Swedish GDP growth. Second, the suggested model produces an earlier signal regarding the probability of recession, compared to a model without financial variables. Third, the model’s forecasts for the deep downturn in 2008 and 2009, conditional on the development of the financial variables, outperform a macro-model that lacks financial variables. Furthermore, this improvement in modelling Swedish GDP growth during the financial crisis does not come at the expense of unconditional predictive power. Taken together, the results suggest that the proposed model presents an accessible possibility to analyse the macro-financial linkages and the GDP developments, especially during a financial crisis.

  • 3.
    Balleer, Almut
    et al.
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutet för internationell ekonomi. RWTH Aachen University, Germany .
    Gomez-Salvador, Ramon
    Turunen, Jarkko
    Labour force participation across Europe: a cohort-based analysis2014Ingår i: Empirical Economics, ISSN 0377-7332, E-ISSN 1435-8921, Vol. 46, nr 4, s. 1385-1415Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    We use a cohort-based model to analyse the determinants of labour force participation in six European economies, focusing on age and cohort effects as factors explaining differences in participation behaviour across countries. Cohort effects are particularly relevant for women with those born in the late 1960s and early 1970s more likely to participate over the life-cycle. Our results suggest that cohort effects can be interpreted as evolving social norms or preferences towards participating in the labour market according to Fernandez (NBER working paper no. 13373, 2007). We find substantial variation in the estimated age and cohort effects across European countries: cohort effects can account for a substantial part of the recent increase in participation in Spain, the Netherlands and Germany, and a positive, but smaller part of in the increase in participation of the UK, Italy and France. Looking forward, positive cohort effects could help counteract the downward impact of population ageing on participation.

  • 4.
    Battese, G. E.
    et al.
    School of Economic Studies, University of New England, Armidale, NSW 2351, Australia.
    Heshmati, Almas
    Department of Economic Statistics, Stockholm School of Economics, Box 6501, S-113 83, Stockholm, Sweden.
    Hjalmarsson, L.
    Department of Economics, Göteborg University, P.O. Box 640, SE 405 30 Göteborg, Sweden.
    Efficiency of labour use in the Swedish banking industry: A stochastic frontier approach2000Ingår i: Empirical Economics, ISSN 0377-7332, E-ISSN 1435-8921, Vol. 25, nr 4, s. 623-640Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    The purpose of this paper is to analyse the impact of the deregulation of the Swedish banking industry in the mid-1980s, and the consequent banking crisis, on productive efficiency and productivity growth in the industry. An unbalanced panel of Swedish banks is studied over the period, 1984 to 1995. A total of 1275 observations are analysed for 156 banks that were observed for between two and twelve years. We adopt a translog stochastic frontier model to estimate the labour-use requirements in terms of the variables, loans, deposits, guarantees, number of branches and total inventories, together with the year of observation. The inefficiency effects in the labour-use frontier are modelled in terms of the number of branches, total inventories, the type of bank and year of observation. The technical inefficiencies of labour use of Swedish banks were found to be significant, with mean inefficiencies per year estimated to be between about 8 and 15 per cent over the years of study. However, the confidence interval predictions for these inefficiencies were found to be quite wide.

  • 5.
    Berggren, Niclas
    et al.
    Ratio Institute.
    Elinder, Mikael
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Nationalekonomiska institutionen.
    Jordahl, Henrik
    Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
    Trust and growth: A shaky relationship2008Ingår i: Empirical Economics, ISSN 0377-7332, E-ISSN 1435-8921, Vol. 35, nr 2, s. 251-274Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    We conduct an extensive robustness analysis of the relationship between trust and growth by investigating a later time period and a bigger sample than in previous studies. In addition to robustness tests that focus on model uncertainty, we systematize the investigation of outlier influence on the results by using the robust estimation technique Least Trimmed Squares. We find that when outliers (especially China) are removed, the trust-growth relationship is no longer robust. On average, the trust coefficient is half as large as in previous findings.

  • 6. Borghans, Lex
    et al.
    Golsteyn, Bart H. H.
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutet för social forskning (SOFI). Maastricht University, Netherlands.
    Default options and training participation2014Ingår i: Empirical Economics, ISSN 0377-7332, E-ISSN 1435-8921, Vol. 46, nr 4, s. 1417-1428Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    This article analyzes whether defaults affect the choice for courses followed at work. In addition, we analyze whether the size of the default effect varies with employees' personality and skill-deficiencies. We perform an experiment in which workers are hypothetically offered three courses which they can accept or exchange for other courses. Randomizing the default package of courses, we identify the default effect. Default courses are chosen approximately three times more often than other courses. They are chosen more often if people have skill-deficiencies in these courses, suggesting that people consider the default to be an advice. Women choose default courses more often than men. Women with less self-confidence and men with lower cognitive skills choose the default courses more often.

  • 7. Bostian, Moriah
    et al.
    Färe, Rolf
    Grosskopf, Shawna
    Umeå universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Centrum för miljö- och naturresursekonomi (CERE). Department of Economics, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, USA.
    Lundgren, Tommy
    Weber, William L.
    Time substitution for environmental performance: The case of Swedish manufacturing2018Ingår i: Empirical Economics, ISSN 0377-7332, E-ISSN 1435-8921, Vol. 54, nr 1, s. 129-152Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    We extend recent advances in time substitution modeling to a directional distance function framework, in order to examine the environmental performance of firms in Sweden's pulp and paper industry for the years 2002-2008. Our data allow us to estimate the optimal reallocation of environmental investments, expenditures and energy use to simultaneously maximize production output and minimize emissions in the years immediately before and after the implementation of the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme. We find some evidence of overall productivity decline when considering both emissions and output objectives, due primarily to technological decline, and that cumulative dynamic inefficiency outweighs static inefficiency. A comparison of optimal investment with observed investment indicates that firms could have improved their performance by reallocating environmental investments to early periods and production-oriented investment to later periods.

  • 8.
    Eklund, Johan
    Högskolan i Jönköping, Internationella Handelshögskolan, IHH, Nationalekonomi.
    Q-theory of investment and earnings retentions: Evidence from Scandinavia2010Ingår i: Empirical Economics, ISSN 0377-7332, E-ISSN 1435-8921, Vol. 39, nr 3, s. 793-813Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    In a frictionless milieu, retentions should have no impact on investment behavior. Empirical studies, however, typically find that retentions are an important determinant of investment. Managerial discretion and financial constraints are two alternative explanations that have been suggested. This article uses a panel of listed Scandinavian firms to examine the importance of earnings retentions as a determinant of investment. Measures of Tobin’s Q, marginal q, and sales accelerator are used to control for investment opportunities. Scandinavian firms are found to depend on earnings retentions to a high degree, more so than in other developed economies. This high dependence on retentions suggests that the Scandinavian capital markets are suffering from allocational inefficiencies. This can be assumed to have detrimental effects on the speed of structural change. Moreover, these market frictions appear too large to per se be caused by information asymmetries or managerial discretion phenomena. Possible institutional explanations are suggested.

  • 9.
    Eriksson, Stefan
    et al.
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Nationalekonomiska institutionen.
    Johansson, Per
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Statistiska institutionen.
    Langenskiöld, Sophie
    Uppsala universitet, Medicinska och farmaceutiska vetenskapsområdet, Medicinska fakulteten, Institutionen för folkhälso- och vårdvetenskap, Hälsoekonomi. Karolinska Institutet, Medical Management Centre, Department of Learning, Informatics, Management and Ethics.
    What is the right profile for getting a job?: A stated choice experiment of the recruitment process2017Ingår i: Empirical Economics, ISSN 0377-7332, E-ISSN 1435-8921, Vol. 53, nr 2, s. 803-826Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    We study the recruitment behaviour of Swedish employers using data from a stated choice experiment. In the experiment, the employers are first asked to describe an employee who recently and voluntarily left the firm and then to choose between two hypothetical applicants to invite to a job interview or to hire as a replacement for their previous employee. The two applicants differ with respect to characteristics such as gender, age, education, work experience, ethnicity, religious beliefs, family situation, weight, and health, but otherwise have similar characteristics as the previous employee. Our results show that employers prefer not to recruit applicants who are old, non-European, Muslim, Jewish, obese, have several children, or have a history of sickness absence. We also calculate the reduction in wage costs needed to make employers indifferent between applicants with and without these characteristics, and find that wage costs would have to be reduced by up to 50 % for applicants with some characteristics.

  • 10.
    Eriksson, Stefan
    et al.
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Nationalekonomiska institutionen.
    Johansson, Per
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Statistiska institutionen. Uppsala universitet, Enheter med anknytning till universitetet, Institutet för arbetsmarknadspolitisk utvärdering (IFAU).
    Langenskiöld, Sophie
    Uppsala universitet, Medicinska och farmaceutiska vetenskapsområdet, Medicinska fakulteten, Institutionen för folkhälso- och vårdvetenskap, Hälsoekonomi.
    What is the Right Profile for Getting a Job? A Stated Choice Experiment of the Recruitment Process2016Ingår i: Empirical Economics, ISSN 0377-7332, E-ISSN 1435-8921Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
  • 11.
    Eriksson, Stefan
    et al.
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Nationalekonomiska institutionen.
    Lagerström, Jonas
    Åbo Akademi.
    Detecting discrimination in the hiring process: evidence from an Internet-based search channel2012Ingår i: Empirical Economics, ISSN 0377-7332, E-ISSN 1435-8921, Vol. 43, nr 2, s. 537-563Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    This article uses data from an Internet-based CV database to study how job searchers’ ethnicity, employment status, age, and gender affect how often they are contacted by firms. Since we know which types of information that are available to the recruiting firms, we can handle some of the problems with unobserved heterogeneity better than many existing discrimination studies. We find that searchers who have non-Nordic names, are unemployed or old get significantly fewer firm contacts. Moreover, this matters for the hiring outcome: searchers who get more contacts have a higher probability of getting hired.

  • 12.
    Gustavsson, Magnus
    et al.
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Nationalekonomiska institutionen.
    Österholm, Pär
    The presence of unemployment hysteresis in OECD: what can we learn from out-of-sample forecasts?2010Ingår i: Empirical Economics, ISSN 0377-7332, E-ISSN 1435-8921, Vol. 38, nr 3, s. 779-792Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper investigates the relevance of unemployment hysteresis in seventeen OECD countries. We employ an out-of-sample forecast exercise in which a mean-reverting autoregressive model is compared to an autoregressive model with an imposed unit root. A substantial difference in forecasting performance between the two models is established for many countries, but the results are mixed in their strength. The evidence for unemployment hysteresis in Austria, Finland, Iceland, Israel, Italy, Japan and Sweden is, however, convincing. For no country can unambiguous support for a mean reverting unemployment rate be found.

  • 13.
    Gustavsson, Magnus
    et al.
    Department of Economics, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden.
    Österholm, Pär
    National Institute of Economic Research, Stockholm, Sweden.
    The presence of unemployment hysteresis in the OECD: what can we learn from out-of-sample forecasts?2010Ingår i: Empirical Economics, ISSN 0377-7332, E-ISSN 1435-8921, Vol. 38, nr 3, s. 779-792Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper investigates the relevance of unemployment hysteresis in seventeen OECD countries. We employ an out-of-sample forecast exercise in which a mean-reverting autoregressive model is compared to an autoregressive model with an imposed unit root. A substantial difference in forecasting performance between the twomodels is established formany countries, but the results aremixed in their strength. The evidence for unemployment hysteresis in Austria, Finland, Iceland, Israel, Italy, Japan and Sweden is, however, convincing. For no country can unambiguous support for a mean reverting unemployment rate be found.

  • 14.
    Hacker, R Scott
    et al.
    Högskolan i Jönköping, Internationella Handelshögskolan, IHH, Nationalekonomi.
    Hatemi-J, Abdulnasser
    How Productivity and Domestic Output Are Related to Exports and Foreign Output in the Case of Sweden2003Ingår i: Empirical Economics, ISSN 0377-7332, E-ISSN 1435-8921, Vol. 28, nr 4, s. 767-782Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    In this paper we examine the relationships between two sets of three variables: Swedish real exports, Swedish real GDP, and foreign real GDP in one set; and Swedish real exports, Swedish total factor productivity, and foreign real GDP in the other set. The foreign real GDP facing Sweden is proxied by total OECD real GDP minus Sweden's real GDP. Multivariate tests for integration and cointegration show that the variables in each model are cointegrated. We also perform Granger causality tests on these variables in our examination using the Toda-Yamamoto procedure. We discover bi-directional causality between Swedish real exports and Swedish real GDP (or Swedish total factor productivity). Foreign real GDP is shown to Granger cause Swedish real exports, but no significant causation of foreign real GDP on either domestic GDP or total factor productivity was found. A change in foreign real GDP thus appears to affect Swedish output and productivity only indirectly, through changes in Swedish exports.

  • 15.
    Hall, Caroline
    et al.
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Nationalekonomiska institutionen. Uppsala universitet, Enheter med anknytning till universitetet, Institutet för arbetsmarknadspolitisk utvärdering (IFAU).
    Hartman, Laura
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Nationalekonomiska institutionen.
    Moral hazard among the sick and unemployed: evidence from a Swedish social insurance reform2010Ingår i: Empirical Economics, ISSN 0377-7332, E-ISSN 1435-8921, Vol. 39, nr 1, s. 27-50Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper studies a specific type of moral hazard that arises in the interplay between two large public social insurance systems in Sweden, namely the sickness insurance (SI) and the unemployment insurance (UI). Moral hazard can arise from the structure of the benefit levels as for some unemployed persons benefits from the SI are higher than benefits from the UI. We use a reform of the SI system that came into force on 1 July 2003 to identify the effect of economic incentives arising from the different benefit levels. The purpose of the reform was to eliminate the difference in benefits between the two social insurance systems. Our results from a duration analysis show clearly that the higher the sickness benefits, the higher the probability of reporting sick.

  • 16.
    Hartman, Laura
    et al.
    Statskontoret.
    Liljeberg, Linus
    Uppsala universitet, Enheter med anknytning till universitetet, Institutet för arbetsmarknadspolitisk utvärdering (IFAU).
    Nordström Skans, Oskar
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Nationalekonomiska institutionen.
    Stepping-stones, dead-ends, or both? An analysis of Swedish replacement contracts2010Ingår i: Empirical Economics, ISSN 0377-7332, E-ISSN 1435-8921, Vol. 38, nr 3, s. 645-668Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
  • 17.
    Hartman, Laura
    et al.
    Statskontoret.
    Liljeberg, Linus
    IFAU.
    Nordström Skans, Oskar
    IFAU.
    Stepping-stones, dead-ends, or both? An analysis of Swedish replacement contracts2010Ingår i: Empirical Economics, ISSN 0377-7332, E-ISSN 1435-8921, nr 38Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
  • 18.
    Hatemi-J., Abdulnasser
    Högskolan i Skövde, Institutionen för teknik och samhälle.
    Tests for cointegration with two unknown regime shifts with an application to financial market integration2008Ingår i: Empirical Economics, ISSN 0377-7332, E-ISSN 1435-8921, Vol. 35, nr 3, s. 497-505Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    It is widely agreed in empirical studies that allowing for potential structural change in economic processes is an important issue. In existing literature, tests for cointegration between time series data allow for one regime shift. This paper extends three residual-based test statistics for cointegration to the cases that take into account two possible regime shifts. The timing of each shift is unknown a priori and it is determined endogenously. The distributions of the tests are non-standard. We generate new critical values via simulation methods. The size and power properties of these test statistics are evaluated through Monte Carlo simulations, which show the tests have small size distortions and very good power properties. The test methods introduced in this paper are applied to determine whether the financial markets in the US and the UK are integrated.

  • 19.
    Hatemi-J, Abdulnasser
    et al.
    Högskolan i Skövde, Institutionen för teknik och samhälle.
    Irandoust, Manuchehr
    Department of Economics, University of Örebro, Örebro SE-701 82, Sweden / Department of Accounting, Finance and Economics, Griffith University, Brisbane, QLD, Australia.
    A bootstrap-corrected causality test: another look at the money–income relationship2006Ingår i: Empirical Economics, ISSN 0377-7332, E-ISSN 1435-8921, Vol. 31, nr 1, s. 207-216Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Previous studies of the causal relationship between money supply and real output are based on asymptotic distributions. If the assumption of normality is not fulfilled and if ARCH effects are present, asymptotic distributions perform inaccurately. In this paper, we reinvestigate the potential causal relationship between money and output by applying an alternative methodology based on the leveraged bootstrapped simulation techniques using data from Denmark, Japan, Sweden, and the US. We find unidirectional causality from money to output for the sample countries except for Sweden for which causality is bi-directional. This finding of unidirectional causality between money and output supports monetary business-cycle models and reveals one important policy implication—that is, in looking for the sources of output fluctuations, money might be a major factor.

  • 20.
    Hellström, Jörgen
    et al.
    Umeå universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för nationalekonomi.
    Nordström, Jonas
    Umeå universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för nationalekonomi.
    A count data model with endogenous household specificcensoring: the number of nights to stay2008Ingår i: Empirical Economics, ISSN 0377-7332, E-ISSN 1435-8921, Vol. 35, nr 1, s. 179-192Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    In this paper a count data regression model accounting for endogenous censoring with household specific censoring thresholds is presented. The presented modelling approach is utilized in an analysis of household choice of total number of nights to spend on monthly recreational trips. The empirical study reveals that the suggested approach is feasible and that accounting for endogenous censoring gives a better fit to the data.

  • 21. Hellström, Jörgen
    et al.
    Rudholm, Niklas
    Högskolan Dalarna, Akademin Industri och samhälle, Nationalekonomi.
    Uncertainty in the generic versus brand name prescription decision2010Ingår i: Empirical Economics, ISSN 0377-7332, E-ISSN 1435-8921, Vol. 38, nr 3, s. 503-521Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper analyzes the impact of uncertainty concerning product quality of generic drugs on the substitution behavior of prescribing physicians. It is shown that uncertainty about the generic drug quality gives the physician a value of waiting for more information before switching to the generic version. In addition, it is shown that reducing the approval requirements for generic drugs, thereby increasing uncertainty about quality, may discourage physicians from prescribing such drugs. An empirical study testing the theoretical predictions is presented at the end of the paper.

  • 22.
    Hellström, Jörgen
    et al.
    Umeå universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Handelshögskolan vid Umeå universitet.
    Rudholm, Niklas
    Department of Economics, Dalarna University, 781 88 Borlänge Sweden..
    Uncertainty in the generic versus brand name prescription decision2010Ingår i: Empirical Economics, ISSN 0377-7332, E-ISSN 1435-8921, Vol. 38, nr 3, s. 503-521Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper analyzes the impact of uncertainty concerning product qualityof generic drugs on the substitution behavior of prescribing physicians. It is shown thatuncertainty about the generic drug quality gives the physician a value of waiting formore information before switching to the generic version. In addition, it is shown thatreducing the approval requirements for generic drugs, thereby increasing uncertaintyabout quality, may discourage physicians from prescribing such drugs. An empiricalstudy testing the theoretical predictions is presented at the end of the paper.

  • 23.
    Hjalmarsson, Erik
    et al.
    Division of International Finance, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Washington DC, United States.
    Österholm, Pär
    National Institute of Economic Research, Stockholm, Sweden.
    Testing for cointegration using the Johansen methodology when variables are near-integrated: size distortions and partial remedies2010Ingår i: Empirical Economics, ISSN 0377-7332, E-ISSN 1435-8921, Vol. 39, nr 1, s. 51-76Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    We investigate the properties of Johansen’s (J Econ Dyn Control 12:231–254, 1988; Econometrica 59:1551–1580, 1991) maximum eigenvalue and trace testsfor cointegration under the empirically relevant situation of near-integrated variables. Using MonteCarlo techniques, we showthat in a systemwith near-integrated variables, the probability of reaching an erroneous conclusion regarding the cointegrating rank of the system is generally substantially higher than the nominal size. The risk of concluding that completely unrelated series are cointegrated is therefore non-negligible. We suggest ways of identifying the problem and different approaches to reduce the size distortions of the tests.

  • 24.
    Hägglund, Pathric
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutet för social forskning (SOFI). Inspektionen för socialförsäkringen.
    Do time limits in the sickness insurance system increase return to work?2013Ingår i: Empirical Economics, ISSN 0377-7332, E-ISSN 1435-8921, Vol. 45, nr 1, s. 567-582Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [sv]

    This article analyzes the effect of stricter enforcement of the eligibility criteria in the Swedish sickness insurance (SI) system. In 2008, time-restricted assessments of the individual’s working capacity on the 91st and 181st sick day was introduced. Taking advantage of the quasi-experimental feature of the intervention, I find a large and significant increased exit rate around the 181-day assessment. The impact is the result of longer spells outside SI-benefits, indicating that the stricter rules create disincentives to report sick.

  • 25. Jacobson, Tor
    et al.
    Ohlsson, Henry
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Nationalekonomiska institutionen.
    Long-run relations between private and public sector wages in Sweden1994Ingår i: Empirical Economics, ISSN 0377-7332, E-ISSN 1435-8921, Vol. 19, nr 3, s. 343-360Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Using a maximum likelihood cointegration approach we find two long-run relationships between central government, local government, and private sector wages in Sweden. This means that there is one common trend for the three sectoral wages. Private sector wages are weakly exogenous for the estimation of the long-run relationships. This suggests that the private sector is the wage leader. Testing linear restrictions on the estimated cointegrating space, we reject stationarity for the three relative wages using likelihood ratio-tests. The hypotheses of homogeneity for the two cointegrating vectors, i.e., that wages do not diverge in the long run, is also rejected.

  • 26. Jacobson, Tor
    et al.
    Ohlsson, Henry
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Nationalekonomiska institutionen.
    Working time, employment, and work sharing: Evidence from Sweden2000Ingår i: Empirical Economics, ISSN 0377-7332, E-ISSN 1435-8921, Vol. 25, nr 1, s. 169-187Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    We study three questions which are important for work sharing to increase employment. First, is there a negative long-run relation between working time and employment? Second, are hours per worker exogenous with respect to wages and employment? Third, can policy makers influence actual hours per worker? We formulate a theoretical model for employment, hours per worker, production, and real wages. A VAR model with cointegrating constraints is estimated by maximum likelihood using Swedish private sector data 1970:1–1990:4. We find (i) no long-run relation between hours per worker and employment, (ii) that hours per worker are endogenous with respect to the estimation of long-run parameters, and (iii) that legislated working time and hours per worker are related to each other in the long run.

  • 27.
    Johansson, Per
    et al.
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Nationalekonomiska institutionen. Uppsala universitet, Enheter med anknytning till universitetet, Institutet för arbetsmarknadspolitisk utvärdering (IFAU).
    Lindahl, Erica
    Uppsala universitet, Enheter med anknytning till universitetet, Institutet för arbetsmarknadspolitisk utvärdering (IFAU).
    Can sickness absence be affected by information meetings?: Evidence from a social experiment2013Ingår i: Empirical Economics, ISSN 0377-7332, E-ISSN 1435-8921, Vol. 44, nr 3, s. 1673-1695Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    During the last decade several empirical studies have stressed the importance of norms and social interactions for explaining sickness-absence behavior. In this context, public discussions about the intentions of the insurance, and of the rights and duties of the receivers, may be important for reducing the sickness absence. In this article, we study whether information meetings about the Swedish sickness insurance affect the length of sickness-absence spells. The study is based on experimental data on individuals with weak labor market attachments. The displacement of when the call to the meeting was sent out was randomized. Comparing the survival functions of those called immediately with those whose calls were delayed (by about 30 days) makes it possible to study whether the length of sickness absence is affected by receiving the call earlier. The result suggests that the length is reduced by, on average, 20%. In the long term (12 months later), there is no effect of the information meeting. This suggests that attendance to the information meeting does not change individuals' long-term behavior.

  • 28.
    Johansson, Per
    et al.
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Nationalekonomiska institutionen.
    Skedinger, Per
    Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN), Stockholm.
    Misreporting in register data on disability status: evidence from the Swedish Public Employment Service2009Ingår i: Empirical Economics, ISSN 0377-7332, E-ISSN 1435-8921, Vol. 37, nr 2, s. 411-434Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    The issue considered in this study is whether there is misreporting in official data on disability status. While there is a rather large literature on misreporting of self-assessed disability, evidence regarding register data is scant. It seems to be a widely held view among researchers that, since individuals out of work are inclined to respond towards poor health, it would be best to have official data provided by the relevant administrative bodies. But we argue that such administrative data should be regarded with some suspicion, since the administrators also may have incentives to misreport. The empirical evidence, based on a large sample of Swedish jobseekers, suggests systematic misreporting by the Public Employment Service of official disability measures due to incentives to misreport disability.

  • 29.
    Jonsson, Thomas
    et al.
    National Institute of Economic Research, Stockholm, Sweden.
    Österholm, Pär
    National Institute of Economic Research, Stockholm, Sweden.
    The properties of survey-based inflation expectations in Sweden2012Ingår i: Empirical Economics, ISSN 0377-7332, E-ISSN 1435-8921, Vol. 42, nr 1, s. 79-94Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    This article assesses the properties of survey-based inflation expectations in Sweden. The survey in question is conducted by Prospera once every quarter andconsists of respondents from businesses and labour-market organisations. The article shows that inflation expectations measured in this survey tend to be biased and inefficient forecasts of future inflation. Moreover, evaluations of forecast accuracy show that these inflation expectations are worse predictors of inflation than those of a professional forecasting institution and also typically outperformed by a simple autoregressive model. Given that the true inflation expectations are captured by the survey, our results indicate that economic agents’ expectations formation process is suboptimal.

  • 30.
    Karlsson, Sune
    et al.
    Stockholm School of Economics, Department of Economic Statistic, Stockholm.
    Skoglund, Jimmy
    Swedbank Group Financial Risk Control, Stockholm, Sweden.
    Maximum-likelihood based inference in the two-way random effects model with serially correlated time effects2004Ingår i: Empirical Economics, ISSN 0377-7332, E-ISSN 1435-8921, Vol. 29, nr 1, s. 79-88Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    The general case where the time specific effect in a two way model follows an arbitrary ARMA process has not been considered previously. We offer a straightforward maximum likelihood estimator for this case. Allowing for general ARMA processes raises the issue of model specification and we propose tests of the null hypothesis of no serial correlation as well as tests for discriminating between different specifications. A Monte-Carlo experiment evaluates the finite-sample properties of the estimators and test-statistics.

  • 31.
    Knezevic, David
    Örebro universitet, Handelshögskolan vid Örebro Universitet. Kommuninvest, Örebro, Sweden.
    Intertemporal diversification of sub-sovereign debt2018Ingår i: Empirical Economics, ISSN 0377-7332, E-ISSN 1435-8921Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper presents a comprehensive empirical analysis of the debt maturity structure of the Swedish municipal sector. The Swedish municipal debt portfolio is characterized by a short maturity structure and an asset-liability mismatch that poses potentially severe roll-over risk. The 2008–2009 financial crisis manifested as a liquidity shock to the sector that highlighted the dangers of short-term funding strategies in conjunction with low levels of intertemporal diversification. In this study we analyze to what extent this led to a change of intertemporal diversification. Based on a unique contract-level monthly data set of municipal loans issued by Kommuninvest of Sweden from January 1997 to June 2016, we construct and estimate a range of dispersion and moment measures to capture the change of various distributional characteristics of the maturity structure. These measures are used as dependent variables in fixed-effects models together with a number of control variables to estimate the effect of the debt-crisis liquidity shock. The main finding is that the crisis did affect the diversification, but not in a persistent way. A possible explanation is that the municipalities found that Kommuninvest through jointly guaranteed lending was able to function as a lender of last resort and thereby mitigates the roll-over risk. It is also found that fiscal and financial properties such as debt-to-tax base ratio, tax base volatility and per capita income are associated with the characteristics of the debt maturity structure of Swedish municipalities, as well as macroeconomic factors such as the term structure of interest rates.

  • 32. Li, Chuan-Zhong
    et al.
    Isacsson, Gunnar
    Högskolan Dalarna, Akademin Industri och samhälle, Nationalekonomi.
    Valuing urban accessibility and air quality in Sweden: a regional welfare analysis2012Ingår i: Empirical Economics, ISSN 0377-7332, E-ISSN 1435-8921, Vol. 42, nr 3, s. 881-898Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    This article is concerned with the implicit values of urban accessibility and air quality in Sweden. Based on the hedonic wage and rent theory, we construct an econometric model to compute such values, and illustrate their implications for regional welfare analysis. It is shown that for most Swedish cities, welfare has increased from 1986 to 1998 due to improved air quality but the positive effect is partly offset by the deteriorated accessibility in some areas. The results also indicate that the values people place on urban accessibility and air quality vary considerably across regions.

  • 33.
    Li, Chuan-Zhong
    et al.
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Nationalekonomiska institutionen.
    Isacsson, Gunnar
    Dalarna University.
    Valuing urban accessibility and air quality in Sweden: A regional welfare analysis2012Ingår i: Empirical Economics, ISSN 0377-7332, E-ISSN 1435-8921, Vol. 42, nr 3, s. 881-898Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    This article is concerned with the implicit values of urban accessibility and air quality in Sweden. Based on the hedonic wage and rent theory, we construct an econometric model to compute such values, and illustrate their implications for regional welfare analysis. It is shown that for most Swedish cities, welfare has increased from 1986 to 1998 due to improved air quality but the positive effect is partly offset by the deteriorated accessibility in some areas. The results also indicate that the values people place on urban accessibility and air quality vary considerably across regions.

  • 34.
    Lyhagen, Johan
    et al.
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Statistiska institutionen.
    Rickne, Johanna
    Income inequality between Chinese regions: newfound harmony or continued discord?2014Ingår i: Empirical Economics, ISSN 0377-7332, E-ISSN 1435-8921, Vol. 47, nr 1, s. 93-110Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper develops an improved test of economic convergence or divergence using time series methods by introducing nonlinear trends in the form of logarithmic trend functions into the vector error correction model. The usefulness of the method is illustrated in an analysis of the growth pattern between Chinese regions in 1952-2007. Comparing all combinations of regional pairs, the analysis yields support for economic divergence in roughly half of the cases. In the other half, we instead find that regions have grown while maintaining stable income differences. As such, the results show the co-existence of divergence and conditional convergence among China's regions.

  • 35.
    Lönnbark, Carl
    Umeå universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Handelshögskolan vid Umeå universitet, Nationalekonomi. Umeå University.
    Asymmetry with respect to the memory in stock market volatilities2016Ingår i: Empirical Economics, ISSN 0377-7332, E-ISSN 1435-8921, Vol. 50, nr 4, s. 1409-1419Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    The empirically most relevant stylized facts when it comes to modeling time-varying financial volatility are the asymmetric response to return shocks and the long memory property. Up till now, these have largely been modeled in isolation. To capture asymmetry also with respect to the memory structure, we introduce a new model and apply it to stock market index data. We find that although the effect on volatility of negative return shocks is higher than for positive ones, the latter are more persistent and relatively quickly dominate negative ones.

  • 36.
    Melander, Ola
    et al.
    Sveriges Riksbank, Monetary Policy Department.
    Sandström, Maria
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Nationalekonomiska institutionen.
    von Schedvin, Erik
    Sveriges Riksbank, Monetary Policy Department, Research Division.
    The effect of cash flow on investment: an empirical test of the balance sheet theory2017Ingår i: Empirical Economics, ISSN 0377-7332, E-ISSN 1435-8921, Vol. 53, nr 2, s. 695-716Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Using a large data set on investments and accounting information for private firms, we put the balance sheet theory to test. We find that firm cash flow has a positive impact on investment and that the effect is enhanced for firms which are more likely to be financially constrained. We also find that the investment-cash flow sensitivity is significantly larger and more persistent during the first half of our sample period, which includes a severe banking crisis and recession. Our results suggest that financial constraints matter more in periods characterized by adverse economic conditions.

  • 37.
    Nordblom, Katarina
    et al.
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Nationalekonomiska institutionen, UCFS.
    Ohlsson, Henry
    Uppsala universitet, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Nationalekonomiska institutionen.
    Bequests, gifts, and education: Links between intergenerational transfers2011Ingår i: Empirical Economics, ISSN 0377-7332, E-ISSN 1435-8921, Vol. 40, nr 2, s. 343-358Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    We study the channels parents use to make transfers to their children. First, we focus on the relationship between investments in education and property transfers. Second, we turn to how property transfers are divided between inter vivos gifts and bequests. We use a Swedish dataset that is superior to previously used data as it contains information on both gifts and inheritances received from parents. We estimate models for the probabilities of having university education, receiving gifts, and receiving inheritances. In addition, we estimate models for gift and inheritance amounts. We find that the more resources parents have, the higher the likelihood of transfers, and that the correlation between receiving inter vivos gifts and inheritances is very high. Finally, women are more likely to have university education and to receive gifts, and daughters receive gifts of larger amounts than sons, although there are no differences in terms of inheritance.

  • 38. Nordin, Martin
    et al.
    Almén, Daniel
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Nationalekonomiska institutionen.
    Long-term unemployment and violent crime2017Ingår i: Empirical Economics, ISSN 0377-7332, E-ISSN 1435-8921, Vol. 52, nr 1, s. 1-29Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    This study reinvestigates the relationship between unemployment and crime, but is the first to focus explicitly on the effects of long-term unemployment on crime. A unique finding is that long-term unemployment shows a strong association with violent crime, an effect which is greater than that of total unemployment on property crime in this and most previous studies. Long-term unemployment thus identifies a marginal group for committing crime (particularly violent crime) better than total unemployment, with the duration of unemployment plausibly increasing the strain that fosters violent behaviour.

  • 39.
    Nordström, Jonas
    Umeå universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för nationalekonomi.
    Dynamic and stochastic structures in tourism demand modeling2005Ingår i: Empirical Economics, ISSN 0377-7332, E-ISSN 1435-8921, Vol. 30, nr 2, s. 379-392Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    In this paper we consider a model for international tourism demand. The point of departure of the analysis is a utility function that is both dynamic and stochastic. In the model the stochastic component is interpreted as random changes in preferences for goods and services, while the dynamic component can be seen as either habit formation or as interdependent preferences. The resulting demand functions are estimated as a multivariate state space model, where the stochastic components enter the model as stochastic seasonal and trend components. An application is constructed for different segments of the Swedish tourism market. The results indicate the importance of including both dynamic and stochastic components in the utility function, and the importance of using disaggregate data to enable investigation of each market segment.

  • 40.
    Oh, Dong-hyun
    et al.
    KTH, Skolan för arkitektur och samhällsbyggnad (ABE), Centra, Centrum för studier inom vetenskap och innovation, CESIS.
    Lee, Jeong-dong
    A metafrontier approach for measuring Malmquist productivity index2010Ingår i: Empirical Economics, ISSN 0377-7332, E-ISSN 1435-8921, Vol. 38, nr 1, s. 47-64Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper presents an alternative framework for the decomposition of the Malmquist productivity index by using the concept of a metafrontier. The approach employed allows the calculation of technical efficiency changes, as well as technical changes, for economic agents operating under different technologies. It also enables the computation of the technological gap and its changes for economic agents operating under different technologies. This framework is applied to the analysis of panel data on 58 countries over a period of 31 years from 1970 to 2000. The empirical results show that Asian countries have attempted to move towards the frontier technology and that European countries have taken the lead in the world frontier technology.

  • 41.
    Oh, I.
    et al.
    Korea Energy Economics Institute, 665-1, Naeson 2-dong, Uiwang-si, Gyeonggi-do 437-713, South Korea.
    Lee, J. -D
    Technology Management, Economics and Policy Program (TEMEP), Seoul National University, San 56-1, Shillim-Dong, Gwanak-Gu, Seoul 151-742, South Korea.
    Hwang, S.
    Science and Technology Policy Institute, Specialty Construction Center 26F/27F, Shindaebang-dong, Dongjak-gu, Seoul 156-714, South Korea.
    Heshmati, Almas
    Technology Management, Economics and Policy Program (TEMEP), Seoul National University, San 56-1, Shillim-Dong, Gwanak-Gu, Seoul 151-742, South Korea.
    Analysis of product efficiency in the Korean automobile market from a consumer’s perspective2010Ingår i: Empirical Economics, ISSN 0377-7332, E-ISSN 1435-8921, Vol. 38, nr 1, s. 119-137Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    In this study we develop and describe a conceptual and methodological framework to measure technical and allocative efficiency at the product level considering consumer choice, which encompasses overall efficiency. Empirically, we combined data envelopment analysis and a discrete choice model in order to measure efficiency levels. The suggested framework is applied to the Korean automobile market. The relationship between the level of efficiency and market performance is discussed in terms of market share. ©Springer-Verlag 2009.

  • 42.
    Skans, Oskar Nordstrom
    et al.
    Uppsala universitet, Enheter med anknytning till universitetet, Institutet för arbetsmarknadspolitisk utvärdering (IFAU).
    Liljeberg, Linus
    Uppsala universitet, Enheter med anknytning till universitetet, Institutet för arbetsmarknadspolitisk utvärdering (IFAU).
    The wage effects of subsidized career breaks2014Ingår i: Empirical Economics, ISSN 0377-7332, E-ISSN 1435-8921, Vol. 47, nr 2, s. 593-617Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    This article studies how subsidized career breaks affect future labor market performance. The analysis uses a Swedish career break program where applications were accepted until local funds were exhausted. The rejected applicants serve as counterfactuals to derive estimates that are unaffected by selection or omitted variables. The estimated wage effect of a 10-month-long break is negative and in the order of 3 % 1-2 years after the interruption. The average applicant is estimated to have substantially lower returns to experience than the average worker. The results thus show that career breaks are costly, even for groups with low expected returns to experience, and in an environment with very compressed wages. The career breaks also induced an increase in job and task mobility whereas post-leave labor supply remained unaffected except for workers close to retirement.

  • 43.
    Stockhammar, Pär
    et al.
    National Institute of Economic Research, Stockholm, Sweden.
    Österholm, Pär
    National Institute of Economic Research, Stockholm, Sweden.
    Effects of US Policy uncertainty on Swedish GDP growth2016Ingår i: Empirical Economics, ISSN 0377-7332, E-ISSN 1435-8921, Vol. 50, nr 2, s. 443-462Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    In this paper, we study the effects of US policy uncertainty—measured as the policy uncertainty index of Baker et al. (Measuring economic policy uncertainty, 2013)—on Swedish GDP growth.Another source of spillovers of shocks to small open economies is thereby examined. We apply both Bayesian VAR models and spectral analysis to quarterly data from 1988 to 2013. Results show that increasing US policy uncertainty has significant negative effects on Swedish GDP growth. The effect seems to primarily stem from effects on investment growth and export growth. Our findings should prove useful to those who analyse and forecast the Swedish economy and potentially also other similar small open economies.

  • 44.
    Sund, Krister
    Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutet för social forskning (SOFI).
    Detracking Swedish compulsory schools: any losers, any winners?2013Ingår i: Empirical Economics, ISSN 0377-7332, E-ISSN 1435-8921, Vol. 44, nr 2, s. 899-920Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    In this article, I use within-school variation to estimate the effect of tracking. I exploit the fact not only that different tracking policies were practiced simultaneously in Swedish compulsory schools but also that tracking policies changed overtime within schools. I estimate not only if being in a tracked math environment had any effect on the probability of graduating from high school but also if tracking status had any impact on the math grade in high school. The results show that there are no significant average effects of tracking. However, there are effects in the lower part of the grade distribution. Students with a low-educated family background are more likely to fail math at high school if they have attended a compulsory school that practiced tracking compared to similar students in a non-tracked environment.

  • 45.
    Tang, Aili
    Högskolan Dalarna, Akademin Industri och samhälle, Nationalekonomi.
    Does Gibrat’s Law hold for Swedish energy firms?2015Ingår i: Empirical Economics, ISSN 0377-7332, E-ISSN 1435-8921, Vol. 49, nr 2, s. 659-674Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Gibrat's law predicts that firm growth is purely random and should be independent of firm size. We use a random effects-random coefficient model to test whether Gibrat's law holds on average in the studied sample as well as at the individual firm level in the Swedish energy market. No study has yet investigated whether Gibrat's law holds for individual firms, previous studies having instead estimated whether the law holds on average in the samples studied. The present results support the claim that Gibrat's law is more likely to be rejected ex ante when an entire firm population is considered, but more likely to be confirmed ex post after market selection has "cleaned" the original population of firms or when the analysis treats more disaggregated data. From a theoretical perspective, the results are consistent with models based on passive and active learning, indicating a steady state in the firm expansion process and that Gibrat's law is violated in the short term but holds in the long term once firms have reached a steady state. These results indicate that approximately 70 % of firms in the Swedish energy sector are in steady state, with only random fluctuations in size around that level over the 15 studied years.

  • 46.
    Tang, Aili
    Örebro universitet, Handelshögskolan vid Örebro Universitet. Institutionen för Nationalekonomi, Högskolan Dalarna, Falun, Sweden.
    Does Gibrat’s Law hold for Swedish energy firms?2015Ingår i: Empirical Economics, ISSN 0377-7332, E-ISSN 1435-8921, Vol. 49, nr 2, s. 659-674Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Gibrat's law predicts that firm growth is purely random and should be independent of firm size. We use a random effects-random coefficient model to test whether Gibrat's law holds on average in the studied sample as well as at the individual firm level in the Swedish energy market. No study has yet investigated whether Gibrat's law holds for individual firms, previous studies having instead estimated whether the law holds on average in the samples studied. The present results support the claim that Gibrat's law is more likely to be rejected ex ante when an entire firm population is considered, but more likely to be confirmed ex post after market selection has "cleaned" the original population of firms or when the analysis treats more disaggregated data. From a theoretical perspective, the results are consistent with models based on passive and active learning, indicating a steady state in the firm expansion process and that Gibrat's law is violated in the short term but holds in the long term once firms have reached a steady state. These results indicate that approximately 70 % of firms in the Swedish energy sector are in steady state, with only random fluctuations in size around that level over the 15 studied years.

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