Bayesian Semi-parametric Analysis for Locomotive Wheel Degradation using Gamma Frailties
2015 (English)In: Proceedings of the Institution of mechanical engineers. Part F, journal of rail and rapid transit, ISSN 0954-4097, E-ISSN 2041-3017, Vol. 229, no 3, 237-247 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
A reliability study based on a Bayesian semi-parametric framework is performed in order to explore the impact of the position of a locomotive wheel on its service lifetime and to predict its other reliability characteristics. A piecewise constant hazard regression model is used to analyse the lifetime of locomotive wheels using degradation data and taking into account the bogie on which the wheel is located. Gamma frailties are included in this study to explore unobserved covariates within the same group. The goal is to flexibly determine reliability for the wheel. A case study is performed using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods and the following conclusions are drawn. First, a polynomial degradation path is a better choice for the studied locomotive wheels; second, under given operational conditions, the position of the locomotive wheel, i.e. on which bogie it is mounted, can influence its reliability; third, a piecewise constant hazard regression model can be used to undertake reliability studies; fourth, considering gamma frailties is useful for exploring the influence of unobserved covariates; and fifth, the wheels have a higher failure risk after running a threshold distance, a finding which could be applied in optimisation of maintenance activities
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2015. Vol. 229, no 3, 237-247 p.
Research subject Operation and Maintenance
IdentifiersURN: urn:nbn:se:ltu:diva-9202DOI: 10.1177/0954409713508759Local ID: 7c47144b-53a0-4353-9936-5add9871f00bOAI: oai:DiVA.org:ltu-9202DiVA: diva2:982140
Validerad; 2015; Nivå 2; 20130923 (linjan)2016-09-292016-09-29Bibliographically approved