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Overconfidence bland svenska privata investerare: Om det finns samband mellan ”the better than average effect”, omsättning, investeringserfarenhet och informationssökning samt om det finns könsskillnader i overconfidence
Linköping University, Department of Management and Engineering, Business Administration. Linköping University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences.
Linköping University, Department of Management and Engineering, Business Administration. Linköping University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences.
2016 (Swedish)Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (One Year)), 20 credits / 30 HE creditsStudent thesisAlternative title
Overconfidence among Swedish private investors (English)
Abstract [sv]

Problembakgrund: CAPM och EMH ses som norm samtidigt som behavioral finance ses som vedertagen teori, vilket gör att det finns motstridiga ståndpunkter i ekonomin. Flera olika områden i behavioral finance har växt fram där overconfidence är ett av dessa områden. Till skillnad från CAPM och EMH är overconfidence fortfarande i begynnelsefasen trots att det finns flera tidigare studier i området. Vår studie har utgångspunkt i tidigare studier som visar att overconfidence leder till mer frekvent handel, vilket i sin tur leder till minskad avkastning.

Syfte: Uppsatsens syfte är att undersöka om overconfidence förekommer bland svenska privata investerare, då overconfidence leder till minskad avkastning. Vi vill även undersöka om det finns några samband mellan “the better than average effect”, omsättning, investeringserfarenhet och informationssökning samt om det finns några skillnader mellan män och kvinnor när det gäller overconfidence.

Metod: Vår studie har en deduktiv ansats då vi tagit utgångspunkt i den teoretiska referensramen för att formulera hypoteser som säger att det finns samband mellan variabler som visar på overconfidence. Målet med hypoteserna är att förklara overconfidence bland svenska privata investerare. Hypoteserna testades sedan genom en kvantitativ metod där vi publicerade vår enkät i olika internetforum, varpå vårt bekvämlighetsurval gav oss 267 respondenter.

Resultat: Resultatet från vår studie visar att overconfidence förekommer bland svenska privata investerare. Det visar även att samband mellan ”the better than average effect”, omsättning och investeringserfarenhet finns, samt att könsskillnader finns trots att riktningen inte är tydlig. Vårt resultat har således skapat ett helhetsperspektiv med beteendemönster och förklaringar. Svenska privata investerare vet därför vilka beteenden de ska undvika för att minska sannolikheten för att vara overconfident och därmed också minska risken för minskad avkastning.

Abstract [en]

Background and problem: CAPM and EMH is seen as the norm in the economy while behavioral finance is seen as an accepted theory, which means that there are contradicting positions. Different areas has evolved from behavioral finance where overconfidence is one of these areas. In contrast to CAPM and EMH, overconfidence is still in its initial phase even though there are several previous studies in the area. Our study is based on previous studies which show that overconfidence leads to more frequent trading, which leads to reduced returns.

Purpose: The purpose of this thesis is to investigate whether overconfidence occurs among Swedish private investors, because overconfidence leads to reduced returns. We also want to investigate whether there is any connection between "the better than average effect", turnover, investment experience and information choices, and if there are any differences between men and women when it comes to overconfidence.

Method: Our study has a deductive approach since we use the theoretical framework to formulate hypotheses which says that there are relationships between variables that indicate overconfidence. The aim with the hypotheses is to explain overconfidence among Swedish private investors. These hypotheses were then tested with a quantitative method where we published our survey in various Internet forums, whereupon our convenience sample gave us 267 respondents.

Conclusions: The result of our study show that overconfidence occur among Swedish private investors. It also shows that a relationship between "the better than average effect", turnover and investment experience exists, and that gender differences exists although there is no distinct direction. Our results have thus created an overall perspective of behavioral patterns and explanations. Swedish private investors therefore know what behavior they should avoid in order to reduce the likelihood of being overconfident and thus reduce the risk of reduced returns.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2016. , 131 p.
National Category
Business Administration
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-131035ISRN: LIU-IEI-FIL-A--16/02182--SEOAI: oai:DiVA.org:liu-131035DiVA: diva2:958128
Subject / course
Master Thesis in Business and Economics Programme (Business Administration)
Supervisors
Examiners
Available from: 2016-09-07 Created: 2016-09-06 Last updated: 2016-09-07Bibliographically approved

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