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Facets of uncertainty: epistemic uncertainty, non-stationarity, likelihood, hypothesis testing, and communication
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL. Univ Lancaster, Lancaster Environm Ctr, Lancaster, England..
2016 (English)In: Hydrological Sciences Journal, ISSN 0262-6667, E-ISSN 2150-3435, Vol. 61, no 9, 1652-1665 p.Article in journal (Refereed) PublishedText
Abstract [en]

This paper presents a discussion of some of the issues associated with the multiple sources of uncertainty and non-stationarity in the analysis and modelling of hydrological systems. Different forms of aleatory, epistemic, semantic, and ontological uncertainty are defined. The potential for epistemic uncertainties to induce disinformation in calibration data and arbitrary non-stationarities in model error characteristics, and surprises in predicting the future, are discussed in the context of other forms of non-stationarity. It is suggested that a condition tree is used to be explicit about the assumptions that underlie any assessment of uncertainty. This also provides an audit trail for providing evidence to decision makers.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2016. Vol. 61, no 9, 1652-1665 p.
Keyword [en]
Hydrological modelling, uncertainty estimation, non-stationarity, epistemic uncertainty, aleatory uncertainty, disinformation
National Category
Oceanography, Hydrology, Water Resources
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-299838DOI: 10.1080/02626667.2015.1031761ISI: 000378699300008OAI: diva2:950284
Available from: 2016-07-29 Created: 2016-07-28 Last updated: 2016-07-29Bibliographically approved

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