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Modellering av brotts prispåverkan genom linjär regression: En studie av bostadsrättspriserna i Stockholms kommun
KTH, School of Engineering Sciences (SCI), Mathematics (Dept.), Mathematical Statistics.
KTH, School of Engineering Sciences (SCI), Mathematics (Dept.), Mathematical Statistics.
2016 (Swedish)Independent thesis Basic level (degree of Bachelor), 10 credits / 15 HE creditsStudent thesisAlternative title
Modelling the price impact of crime through linear regression : A study of prices of cooperative apartments in Stockholm county (English)
Abstract [sv]

Det här kandidatexamensarbetet inom matematisk statistik och industriell ekonomi undersöker om antalet anmälda brott hade någon påverkan på priset per kvadratmeter för bostadsrätter i Stockholms kommun mellan 2012 och 2014. Både små och stora bostadsrätter studeras i samtliga av kommunens s.k. basområden. Analys gjordes med hjälp av multipel linjär regression och OLS (Ordinary Least Squares). Många av rapporterna som modellerar bostadspriser använder multipel linjär regression, men studerar främst olika makroekonomiska faktorers påverkan. Få rapporter inkluderar brott som variabler i sina modeller. I det här arbetet studeras brottskategorierna mord, misshandel, rån, våldtäkt, fordonstöld samt inbrott. Arbetet kan bidra med att förbättra befintliga värderingsmodeller för bostadsrättspriser om brott visar sig vara signifikanta.

Modellering av bostadspriser har gjorts i samarbete med Valueguard AB. Polismyndigheten i Stockholm stod för brottsstatistiken som användes i regressionen.

Arbetet består av två delar. Den första delen inom industriell ekonomi behandlar makroekonomiska indikatorer som kan ha en påverkan på bostadspriser medan den andra delen inom matematisk statistik behandlar en regressionsanalys av priserna. Slutsatsen är att antalet anmälda brott i fem av de sex brottskategorierna hade en prispåverkan och att några makroekonomiska variabler också var viktiga.

Abstract [en]

This bachelor’s project thesis in mathematical statistics and industrial engineering and management investigates if reported crime rates had any effect on the price per square meter of housing cooperatives in Stockholm municipality between 2012 and 2014. Small and large housing cooperatives were studied in the municipality’s basområden. The analysis used multiple linear regression and OLS (Ordinary Least Squares). Many reports that model housing prices use linear regression, but mainly study the effect of economic variables. Few reports include crime as variables in their models. In this paper six categories of crime are studied, namely murder, assault, robbery, rape, car theft and burglary. The paper can contribute to improve existing valuation models for housing prices if reported crime prove to be significant.

The modeling of housing prices was done in collaboration with Valueguard AB.  The Swedish Police Authority in Stockholm provided the crime statistics that were used in the regression.

The paper consists of two parts. The first part in industrial engineering and management deals with economic indicators that may have an impact on housing prices while the other part in mathematical statistics deals with a regression analysis on the housing prices. The conclusion was that reported crime in five out of six categories had a price effect and some economic variables were also important.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2016.
Series
TRITA-MAT-K, 2016:11
National Category
Mathematics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-189007OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-189007DiVA: diva2:942662
External cooperation
Valueguard AB
Subject / course
Applied Mathematical Analysis
Educational program
Master of Science in Engineering - Industrial Engineering and Management
Supervisors
Examiners
Available from: 2016-06-26 Created: 2016-06-26 Last updated: 2016-07-02Bibliographically approved

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