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Prediktion av proffsgolfares genomsnittscore på den amerikanska PGA-touren med hjälp av regressionsanalys
KTH, School of Engineering Sciences (SCI), Mathematics (Dept.), Mathematical Statistics.
KTH, School of Engineering Sciences (SCI), Mathematics (Dept.), Mathematical Statistics.
2016 (Swedish)Independent thesis Basic level (degree of Bachelor), 10 credits / 15 HE creditsStudent thesisAlternative title
Prediction of the score of professional golfers on the PGA tour using regression analysis (Swedish)
Abstract [sv]

Detta kandidatexamensarbete undersökte huruvida proffsgolfares genomsnittscore på den amerikanska PGA-touren kunde predikteras med hjälp av regressionsanalys. Data för säsongerna 2011-2015 hämtades från PGA-Tourens hemsida. I grundmodellen användes 19 kovariat för att fånga upp så många som möjligt av golfens alla moment. Grundmodellen utvärderades och förbättrades så att den slutgiltiga modellen reducerades på ett av de ursprungliga kovariaten. Tillförlitlighet, relevans och användbarhet utreddes och diskuterades. Den slutgiltiga prediktionsmodellen hade en justerad förklaringsgrad på 70.9% och β-koefficienter som samtliga hade entydig och förväntad riktningspåverkan på genomsnittscoren. Därmed ansågs slutmodellen användbar för prediktion av genomsnittscore. De olika slagkategorierna mäts i olika enheter, vilket gjorde det svårare att direkt svara på olika delars relativa inverkan. Detta till trots kunde slutsatser dras att ruffinspel kräver större marginell förbättring än fairwayinspel och att relativt små förbättringar inom puttkategorierna minskar genomsnittscoren märkbart.

Arbetet analyserade också en teknologisk transformation inom golfen, nämligen multi-komponentbollen. Statistik från PGA-touren användes för att undersöka huruvida olika prestationsmässiga mönster kunde tydas som en effekt av multi- komponentbollens genomslag på touren. Analysen visade en tydlig ökning i utslagslängd, utan märkbara försämringar av andra delar inom spelet. Slutsatsen drogs att multi-komponentteknologin var en radikal innovation i en arkitektuell dimension. Därtill utvärderades och konstaterades att multi- komponentteknologin kunde klassas som ett teknologiskt spår inom paradigmet för golfbollstillverkning.

Abstract [en]

This bachelor thesis examined if the average score of professional golf players on the PGA-tour could be predicted by the tools of regression analysis. Data was collected from the seasons 2011-2015 from PGA-tours webpage. In the original model 19 covariates were used to describe as many as possible of all the different elements in the game. The model was evaluated and improved so that the final model was reduced by one of the original covariates. The reliability, relevance and usability of the final model was investigated and discussed. The final model had an adjusted effect size of 70.9% and β-coefficients that all had the expected relationship to the average score, in terms of direction. Hence the model was determined to be useful for the prediction of PGA-tour players average score. Different types of shots were measured in different units which meant that any direct conclusion on their relative importance were difficult to draw. Despite this it was concluded that approach shots from the rough required a greater marginal improvement relative to the approach shots from the fairway. Also small percentage improvements in putting was conlcuded to reduce the average score noticeable.

The thesis also analysed a technological transformation in golf, namely the introduction of the multi-component ball. Statistics from the PGA Tour was used to investigate whether various performance-related patterns could be interpreted as an effect of multi-component ball’s introduction on the tour. The analysis showed a clear increase in driving distance, without significant loss in other parts of the game. It was concluded that multi-component technology was a radical innovation in an architectural dimension. In addition to this the multicomponent technology was evaluated and established as a technological track in the paradigm for golf ball manufacturing.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2016.
Series
TRITA-MAT-K, 2016:06
National Category
Mathematics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-189003OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-189003DiVA: diva2:942658
Subject / course
Applied Mathematical Analysis
Educational program
Master of Science in Engineering - Industrial Engineering and Management
Supervisors
Examiners
Available from: 2016-06-26 Created: 2016-06-26 Last updated: 2016-06-26Bibliographically approved

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