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American Football: A Markovian Approach
KTH, School of Engineering Sciences (SCI), Mathematics (Dept.), Mathematical Statistics.
KTH, School of Engineering Sciences (SCI), Mathematics (Dept.), Mathematical Statistics.
2016 (English)Independent thesis Basic level (degree of Bachelor), 10 credits / 15 HE creditsStudent thesisAlternative title
Amerikansk fotboll med Markovkedjor (Swedish)
Abstract [en]

This bachelor's thesis in applied mathematics & industrial economics is an attempt to model drives in American football using Markov chains. The transition matrix is obtained through logit regression analysis on historical data from the NFL. Different outcomes of drives are modelled as separate absorbing states in the Markov chain. Absorption probabilities are calculated representing the probabilities of each outcome. Results are tested against a Markov chain with the transition matrix based on frequency analysis. Three scoring rules unanimously declare the regression based model to be superior.

The application of the model pertains to live sports betting. With the insight provided by the Markovian model, a bettor should be able to make statistically informed betting decisions. The prospect of creating a start-up based on the Markovian betting model is discussed.

Abstract [sv]

Denna kandidatuppsats i tillämpad matematik & industriell ekonomi är ett försök till att modellera drives i amerikansk fotboll med hjälp av Markovkedjor. Övergångsmatrisen fås genom logit-regressionsanalys av historisk data från NFL. Olika utfall av drives modelleras som separata absorberande tillstånd i Markovkedjan. Absorptionssannolikheter beräknas, vilka representerar sannolikheterna för de olika utfallen. Resultaten testas mot en Markovkedja där övergångsmatrisen fås genom frekvensanalys. Tre olika poängregler föredrar enhälligt den regressionsbaserade modellen.

Modellens tillämpning berör sportbetting. Med hjälp av Markovmodellen bör en spelare kunna ta statistiskt underbyggda beslut i deras betting. Möjligheterna att skapa ett företag baserat på Markovmodellen diskuteras.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
TRITA-MAT-K, 2016:23
Keyword [en]
Markov Theory, Probabilistic Forecasting, Logit Regression, American Football, Sports Betting, Sports Science
Keyword [sv]
Markovteori, Probabilistisk Prognostisering, Logitregression, Amerikansk Fotboll, Sportbetting, Sportvetenskap
National Category
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-188987OAI: diva2:942567
Subject / course
Applied Mathematical Analysis
Educational program
Master of Science in Engineering - Industrial Engineering and Management
Available from: 2016-06-25 Created: 2016-06-25 Last updated: 2016-06-25Bibliographically approved

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