Påverkar oförutsägbara händelser flygbolagsaktiekurser?
Independent thesis Basic level (degree of Bachelor), 10 credits / 15 HE creditsStudent thesis
Purpose: The aim of the study is to identify how airline stock prices can be affected by unpredictable exogenous events.
Theoretical Framework: The study is based on the efficient market hypothesis and behavioural finance with a focus on overreaction, herd behaviourism and seasonal anomalies that arise at the stock market.
Boundaries: The study field is narrowed to specifically chosen four terror attacks, four aircraft crashes and ten airlines.
Method: The study applies a quantitative approach based on event study. Airline stock market has been also examined for the weekday effect using regression analysis.
Conclusions: The effect of terrorist attacks on airline stock prices is larger and has a major impact on the change of airlines stock market prices than the effect when airplane crashes. Though this significant connection is only shown by the terrorist attack that happened on the 11th September, 2001. It showed a significant connection between the event and share prices change in ten selected airlines. Recovery time varies between these two types of unexpected events (terrorist attacks and plane crash) as well as between airlines. A certain pattern has been discovered that shows us that the effect of airplane crashes is short while the impact of terrorist attacks is long lasting. The estimated coefficients for the weekday effect for the years 2014 and 2015 have shown slight deviations in study results.
Suggestions for future studies: To conduct another study using triangulation where the qualitative element of the interview could clarify the relevance of the results. Another suggestion is to examine the airline stock market for "monthly shift effect".
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2016. , 48 p.
efficient market hypothesis, event study method, terrorist attack, plane crash, recovery time, weekday effect, abnormal returns
Effektiv marknadshypotes, eventstudiemetod, terrorattack, flygplanskrasch, återhämtningstid, veckodagseffekt, avvikande avkastning.
IdentifiersURN: urn:nbn:se:sh:diva-30423OAI: oai:DiVA.org:sh-30423DiVA: diva2:940527
Subject / course
UppsokSocial and Behavioural Science, Law
Smolander, Maria, Högskolelektor