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Beslut på liv och död: Naturalistiskt beslutsfattande på strategisk nivå
Swedish National Defence College.
2016 (Swedish)Independent thesis Basic level (degree of Bachelor), 10 credits / 15 HE creditsStudent thesis
Abstract [en]

This thesis aims to expand our knowledge about Naturalistic Decision Making (NDM) in strategic decision-making. A case study of the Cuban missile crisis has been conducted. The purpose of the case study is to enhance knowledge about how NDM can be performed on a strategic level. The thesis aims to answer the questions how the crisis can be explained from a NDM-perspective, which decisions is likely to be made in a NDM-manner. In what way decision-makers can be said to be experts or experienced decision-makers and what we can learn from the Cuban missile crisis in respect to NDM. No earlier research has been identified that has performed this kind of case study. The main theory in this thesis is NDM and mainly the part of NDM that is called Recognition Primed Decision (RPD) by Klein. As a complement the so called STEP-procedure (Story, Test, Evaluate, Plan) by Cohen is used as an indicator alongside RPD. The result of the case study shows that many decisions during the Cuban missile crisis may have been performed in a naturalistic manner. This shows that decisions on the strategic level may be performed in a naturalistic manner with good results and indicates the importance of utilizing more than rational decision making in order to achieve fast and satisfying results. It is the author beliefs that decision making will be much improved by applying more NDM.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2016. , 43 p.
Keyword [en]
Naturalistic Decision Making, NDM, RPD, Klein, Cohen, Kahneman
Keyword [sv]
beslut, strategi, Kubakrisen
National Category
Other Social Sciences not elsewhere specified
URN: urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-6180OAI: diva2:939977
Subject / course
Krigsvetenskap, självständigt arbete (Förberedande kurs inför Högre stabsofficersutbildning (HSU))
Available from: 2016-08-18 Created: 2016-06-20 Last updated: 2016-08-18Bibliographically approved

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