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Comparing the Predictive Power of Past Results Between Soccer Leagues
KTH, School of Computer Science and Communication (CSC).
KTH, School of Computer Science and Communication (CSC).
2016 (English)Independent thesis Basic level (degree of Bachelor), 10 credits / 15 HE creditsStudent thesisAlternative title
En jämförelse av det prediktiva värdet av tidigare resultat mellan fotbollsligor (Swedish)
Abstract [en]

In this thesis, the performance of a number of models used to predict the result in soccer games has been investigated, using data on the previously played games in the league. Established models were implemented, and tested on a wide set of soccer leagues during several years. The performance of each model was measured using the likelihood ratio against a simple baseline distribution. The performance of these models was then analyzed to find systematic differences correlating with some properties of a soccer league, such as average number of goals in the league, and determine which models overall performed best. The results showed that such differences do exist, correlating with the average number of goals in a league as well as the variance in performance among teams in the league. Additionally, statistically significant differences in the performance of some models were established.

Abstract [sv]

I denna rapport undersöktes prestandan hos ett antal modeller för att förutsäga resultat i fotbollsmatcher, tränade på resultaten i tidigare matcher i ligan. Etablerade modeller implementerades och testades sedan på flera årgångar av ett brett urval av fotbollsligor. Prestandan för varje modell mättes som en likelihood-ratio mot en enkel basdistribution. Modellernas prestanda analyserades sedan för att hitta systematiska skillnader som korrelerar med någon viss egenskap hos en fotbollsliga, t.ex. genomsnittligt antal mål i ligan, samt att avgöra vilka modeller som presterade bäst.

Resultaten visade att sådana skillnader finns, och att prestandan korrelerar med dels genomsnittligt antal mål i ligan, men även variansen hos prestandan för lagen i ligan. Dessutom hittades statistiskt signifikanta skillnader i prestanda mellan några av modellerna.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
National Category
Computer Science
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-188638OAI: diva2:937684
Available from: 2016-06-15 Created: 2016-06-15 Last updated: 2016-06-15Bibliographically approved

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