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Systems Perspectives on Modelling and Managing Future Anthropogenic Emissions in Urban Areas: Nitrogen, Phosphorus and Carbon Studies in Stockholm, Sweden
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Sustainable development, Environmental science and Engineering, Industrial Ecology.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-2829-2928
2016 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Managing anthropogenic emissions in urban areas is a major challenge in sustainable environmental development for cities, and future changes and increasing urbanisation may increase this challenge. Systems perspectives have become increasingly important in helping urban managers understand how different changes may alter future emissions and whether current management strategies can efficiently manage these emissions. This thesis provides some systems perspectives that have been lacking in previous studies on modelling and managing future anthropogenic emissions in urban areas. The city of Stockholm, Sweden, was selected as the study site and studies about nitrogen, phosphorus and carbon were chosen, given world-wide urban eutrophication and global concerns about climate change. A substance flow analysis (SFA) structured model, comprising a source model coupled with a watershed model in an SFA structure, was developed to investigate future nutrient loading scenarios under various urban changes in small urban lake catchments. The results demonstrated that climate change potentially posed a greater threat to future nutrient loads to a selected lake catchment in Stockholm than the other scenarios examined. Another SFA-based study on future phosphorus flows through the city of Stockholm indicated that the best management option may depend on the perspective applied when comparing future scenarios of phosphorus flows and that both upstream and downstream measures need to be considered in managing urban phosphorus flows. An evaluation approach for examining current management plans and low-carbon city initiatives using the Driving forces-Pressure-States-Impact-Response (DPSIR) framework, was formulated. With such an evaluation approach, investigation of how well selected plans cover different aspects of the DPSIR framework and whether root causes and systematic measures are highlighted is possible. The results revealed that the current low-carbon city initiative in Stockholm falls within pressure-based, driver-orientated plans and that technical, institutional and cognitional measures are generally well covered. 

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: KTH Royal Institute of Technology, 2016. , x, 60 p.
Series
TRITA-IM-PHD, 2016:02
Keyword [en]
Anthropogenic emissions, Urban development, Future, Substance flow analysis (SFA), DPSIR.
National Category
Environmental Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-186245ISBN: 978-91-7595-961-0 (print)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-186245DiVA: diva2:926480
Public defence
2016-06-02, V2, Teknikringen 76, KTH-Campus, Stockholm, 10:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Note

QC 20160510

Available from: 2016-05-10 Created: 2016-05-07 Last updated: 2016-12-15Bibliographically approved
List of papers
1. Climate change effects on nitrogen loading to urban lakes: The case of Råcksta Träsk, Stockholm, Sweden
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Climate change effects on nitrogen loading to urban lakes: The case of Råcksta Träsk, Stockholm, Sweden
2013 (English)In: Proceedings of the 6th International Perspectives on Water Resources & the Environment, 2013Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

Nutrient loads to aquatic recipients can be expected to change due to climate change. In this work, we focus on nitrogen loads to the lake Råcksta Träsk in Stockholm, Sweden as an example of an urban ecosystem. A substance flow model is developed to describe the sources and pathways of nitrogen at present. A feed-back table approach is applied to indicate potential climate change effects on nitrogen source strengths and processes in pathways, using existing regional climate change scenarios. The tentative results indicate that biological, hydrological, meteorological and biogeochemical effects and change in human behavior as response to climate change may lead to altered nitrogen flows through an urban catchment.

Keyword
nitrogen load, urban lake, climate change, substance flow analysis, feed-back table
National Category
Environmental Sciences
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-186243 (URN)
Conference
The 6th International Perspectives on Water Resources & the Environment. January 7-9, 2013 Izmir, Turkey
Note

QC 20160509

Available from: 2016-05-07 Created: 2016-05-07 Last updated: 2016-05-10Bibliographically approved
2. Nutrient loadings from urban catchments under climate change scenarios: Case studies in Stockholm, Sweden
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Nutrient loadings from urban catchments under climate change scenarios: Case studies in Stockholm, Sweden
2015 (English)In: Science of the Total Environment, ISSN 0048-9697, E-ISSN 1879-1026, Vol. 518-519, 393-406 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Anthropogenic nutrient emissions and associated eutrophication of urban lakes are a global problem. Future changes in temperature and precipitation may influence nutrient loadings in lake catchments. A coupling method, where the Generalized Watershed Loading Functions method was tested in combination with source quantification in a Substance Flow Analysis structure, was suggested to investigate diffuse nutrient sources and pathways and climate change effects on the loadings to streamflow in urban catchments. This method may, with an acceptable level of uncertainty, be applied to urban catchments for first-hand estimations of nutrient loadings in the projected future and to highlight the need for further study and monitoring. Five lake catchments in Stockholm, Sweden (Råcksta Träsk, Judarn, Trekanten, Långsjön and Laduviken) were employed as case studies and potential climate change effects were explored by comparing loading scenarios in two periods (2000-2009 and 2021-2030). For the selected cases, the dominant diffuse sources of nutrients to urban streamflow were found to be background atmospheric concentration and vehicular traffic. The major pathways of the nitrogen loading were suggested to be from both developed areas and natural areas in the control period, while phosphorus was indicated to be largely transported through surface runoff from natural areas. Furthermore, for nitrogen, a modest redistribution of loadings from surface runoff and stormwater between seasons and an increase in the annual loading were suggested for the projected future climate scenarios as compared to the control period. The model was, due to poor monitoring data availability, only able to set an upper limit to nutrient transport by groundwater both in the control period and the future scenarios. However, for nitrogen, groundwater appeared to be the pathway most sensitive to climate change, with a considerable increase and seasonal redistribution of loadings. For phosphorus, loadings by different pathways were apparently less sensitive to climate change.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2015
Keyword
Climate change, Diffuse sources, Nutrient loadings, Substance Flow Analysis, Urban catchments, Catchments, Eutrophication, Groundwater, Lakes, Nitrogen, Nutrients, Phosphorus, River pollution, Runoff, Stream flow, Atmospheric concentration, Climate change scenarios, Future climate scenarios, Generalized watershed loading functions, Nutrient loading, Urban catchment, ground water, rain, catchment, climate effect, lacustrine environment, nutrient enrichment, stormwater, streamflow, urban area, Article, atmospheric deposition, body surface, environmental monitoring, environmental protection, flow measurement, geographic distribution, hydrology, land use, nitrate leaching, priority journal, quantitative analysis, residential area, stream (river), Sweden, watershed, Stockholm [Sweden]
National Category
Environmental Sciences
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-167703 (URN)10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.02.041 (DOI)000353225700041 ()2-s2.0-84924571154 (Scopus ID)
Note

QC 20150602

Available from: 2015-06-02 Created: 2015-05-22 Last updated: 2017-12-04Bibliographically approved
3. Nutrient flows following changes in source strengths, land use and climate in an urban catchment, Råcksta Träsk in Stockholm, Sweden
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Nutrient flows following changes in source strengths, land use and climate in an urban catchment, Råcksta Träsk in Stockholm, Sweden
2016 (English)In: Ecological Modelling, ISSN 0304-3800, E-ISSN 1872-7026, Vol. 338, 69-77 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Managing nutrient flows to urban lakes is one of the main challenges to environmental sustainability in cities. Considering that future urban and climate changes may increase the challenge of handling future eutrophication, prediction of future nutrient loadings to aquatic environments in urban catchments has become increasingly important. Based on a new, innovative, structured Substance Flow Analysis (SFA) approach, where a source model was coupled to a Generalised Watershed Loading Functions (GWLF) model, this study investigated nutrient (nitrogen and phosphorus) delivery from sources to a water recipient for an urban catchment, using the case of Racksta Trask in Stockholm, Sweden, as an example. Potential effects from future changes in atmospheric deposition, vehicle volume and land use and from climate change (temperature and precipitation) were examined by comparing model scenarios in two periods (2000-2009 and 2050-2059). Model results suggested that climate change may have a greater impact on nitrogen loading to Racksta Trask lake than increasing vehicle volume and land use change. In addition, the results suggested that nitrogen loading to the lake may increase taking into account all changes examined, despite the expected decrease in background atmospheric deposition of nitrogen. In contrast, a marginal impact was found for phosphorus loading to the lake under all scenarios examined, resulting in only a slight increase in the combined scenario. From a nutrient pathways perspective, the results suggested that major pathways of nutrient loadings to the lake may not be much affected under most future scenarios examined, although groundwater was found to be a potentially sensitive pathway of nitrogen transport in the climate scenario. The model results provided important information for managers who need to plan for future nutrient handling in urban catchments, and the coupled SFA-GWLF model was suggested to be worthy of further testing at other sites and conditions.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2016
Keyword
Climate change, Nutrient loadings, Stockholm, Substance flow analysis, Urban catchments, Urban change
National Category
Environmental Sciences
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-186244 (URN)10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2016.08.001 (DOI)000383819200007 ()2-s2.0-84982847750 (Scopus ID)
Note

QC 20161018

Available from: 2016-05-07 Created: 2016-05-07 Last updated: 2017-11-30Bibliographically approved
4. Anthropogenic phosphorus flows under different scenarios for the city of Stockholm, Sweden
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Anthropogenic phosphorus flows under different scenarios for the city of Stockholm, Sweden
2016 (English)In: Science of the Total Environment, ISSN 0048-9697, E-ISSN 1879-1026, Vol. 542, 1094-1105 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Today, concerns prevail about the unsustainable use of phosphorus and worldwide eutrophication, thus requiring efficient management of phosphorus flows. With increasing population and associated urban growth, urban management of phosphorus flows in the perspectives of recycling, eutrophication and total budget becomes increasingly important. This study mapped phosphorus flows for a reference year (2013) and a future year (2030) using different scenarios for the city of Stockholm, Sweden. The results indicated that the Swedish goal of recycling phosphorus from wastewater would cover the majority of the total phosphorus budget for Stockholm. However, in 2013, only 10% of phosphorus was recycled for agricultural use, around half of which was from sewage sludge and the other half from food waste. Almost 50% of total phosphorus was sent to landfill/mining waste capping with sewage sludge, for economic reasons and lack of market. Among the scenarios of upstream and downstream urban management options studied in combination with population growth, recovery of phosphorus from sewage sludge had the greatest potential to increase the fraction recycled to agriculture. However, only upstream measures, e.g. changed diet, were able to reduce the total phosphorus budget. Urban management of phosphorus flows based on the different perspectives of recycling, eutrophication or total budget was shown to potentially result in different preferred management actions and both upstream and downstream measures need to be considered. Moreover, management needs to pay attention to small but environmentally sensitive flows, particularly when setting city goals on phosphorus recycling by percentage in a large budget.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2016
Keyword
Phosphorus flow analysis, Scenarios, Phosphorus recycling, Total budget, Eutrophication
National Category
Environmental Sciences
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-179256 (URN)10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.09.024 (DOI)000365602300010 ()2-s2.0-84949320333 (Scopus ID)
Note

QC 20160105

Available from: 2015-12-14 Created: 2015-12-14 Last updated: 2017-12-01Bibliographically approved
5. Evaluating low-carbon city initiatives from the DPSIR framework perspective
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Evaluating low-carbon city initiatives from the DPSIR framework perspective
Show others...
2015 (English)In: Habitat International, ISSN 0197-3975, E-ISSN 1873-5428, Vol. 50, 289-299 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Current low-carbon city initiatives were evaluated using the DPSIR (Drivingforces-Pressures-State-Impacts-Responses) causal-effect framework for investigating interactions between environmental issues and human activities. For effective management towards achieving a low-carbon city, integrating the pressure-based, driver-oriented DPSIR approach could help decision makers examine whether greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction approaches deal with the root causes of GHG emissions and work to-wards low-carbon city development goals. The DPSIR framework was used on 36 global cities to analyse the socio-economic dynamics of GHG emissions and their pressures on the environment, the state of the environment, related climate change impacts and responses from society. The results indicated that numerous cities have awareness of low-car bon plans and that most of these plans are pressure-based and driver-oriented. Most city plans recognise energy, transportation and building as the main driving forces for GHG emissions, which cause environmental pressures, and highlight technical responses to reduce GHG emissions pressures from these root causes. Inaddition, most plans recognise institutional and cognitional responses to low-carbon city development, such as: policies and legislation; departmental planning and cooperation; measuring, monitoring and reporting performance; capital invest-ment; community education and outreach; and stakeholder involvement.

Keyword
Low-carboncity, DPSIR framework, Content analysis
National Category
Other Environmental Engineering
Research subject
Planning and Decision Analysis
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-174072 (URN)10.1016/j.habitatint.2015.09.001 (DOI)2-s2.0-84941634546 (Scopus ID)
Note

QC 20150929

Available from: 2015-09-29 Created: 2015-09-29 Last updated: 2017-12-01Bibliographically approved

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Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
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  • Other style
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  • en-GB
  • en-US
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  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
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  • Other locale
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Output format
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  • asciidoc
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