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Multi-variable bias correction: application of forest fire risk in present and future climate in Sweden
SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
SMHI, Professional Services.
SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-1986-8374
SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology.
2015 (English)In: Natural hazards and earth system sciences, ISSN 1561-8633, E-ISSN 1684-9981, Vol. 15, no 9, 2037-2057 p.Article in journal (Refereed) PublishedText
Abstract [en]

As the risk of a forest fire is largely influenced by weather, evaluating its tendency under a changing climate becomes important for management and decision making. Currently, biases in climate models make it difficult to realistically estimate the future climate and consequent impact on fire risk. A distribution-based scaling (DBS) approach was developed as a post-processing tool that intends to correct systematic biases in climate modelling outputs. In this study, we used two projections, one driven by historical reanalysis (ERA40) and one from a global climate model (ECHAM5) for future projection, both having been dynamically down-scaled by a regional climate model (RCA3). The effects of the post-processing tool on relative humidity and wind speed were studied in addition to the primary variables precipitation and temperature. Finally, the Canadian Fire Weather Index system was used to evaluate the influence of changing meteorological conditions on the moisture content in fuel layers and the fire-spread risk. The forest fire risk results using DBS are proven to better reflect risk using observations than that using raw climate outputs. For future periods, southern Sweden is likely to have a higher fire risk than today, whereas northern Sweden will have a lower risk of forest fire.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2015. Vol. 15, no 9, 2037-2057 p.
National Category
Oceanography, Hydrology, Water Resources
Research subject
URN: urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-1945DOI: 10.5194/nhess-15-2037-2015ISI: 000363645500009OAI: diva2:924768
Available from: 2016-04-29 Created: 2016-03-03 Last updated: 2016-04-29Bibliographically approved

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