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Analysis of future scenarios for electric vehicle adoption in sweden: A case study
Mälardalen University, School of Business, Society and Engineering.
2015 (English)Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (Two Years)), 20 credits / 30 HE creditsStudent thesis
Abstract [en]

Transportation is one of the areas where Sweden could not yet manage to reduce the CO2 emissions. One solution that has been suggested to reduce the CO2 emissions in this sector is through the mass adoption of electric vehicles (EVs). However, mass EV adoption brings complications with it. Drivers behavior is a critical aspect since people often charge their car at home after work. This could negatively affect the evening load peak and thus cause a high impact on the electricity system. A survey was sent out to current private EV owners in Sweden, to learn about their charging schedules, driving patterns and battery capacity. 226 of 403 replied to the survey which gave a survey reply rate of 56 %.

The goal of this work was to estimate the future adoption of EVs, based on the current trends and national targets in order to develop different scenarios. With the scenarios in mind, the projected consumption of EVs for different periods of the day, the magnitude and time of the peak load as well as the overall consumption and CO2 reduction per year were calculated. Three scenarios were analyzed with 96 000, 650 000 and 1 000 000 electric vehicles where 25 % are defined to be running entirely on electricity in the middle and high penetration scenario since even plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, PHEV where included. The scenarios are estimated as the possible situation in 2030 and a simulation is done in MATLAB for summer and winter cases as well as weekdays and weekends. Results showed that the charging pattern of the EV drivers would cause a peak load at around 20.00 where the peak load from the overall household consumptions also takes place. The highest consumption takes place during the weekend cases but there were no significant difference between summer and winter. For example the peak consumption of the EVs was 150 MWh during winter and weekends at 20.00. The annual consumption of the EVs would be 238 GWh, 342 GWh and 616 GWh for the low, middle and high penetration scenario. By analyzing the current installed power of renewable energy sources in Sweden, it was found that the demand for EVs could be met by renewables entirely today. It was also found that using EVs instead of conventional fossil fueled cars can save up to 264 Mton CO2 for the low penetration scenario, 447 Mton for the middle penetration scenario and 688 Mton for the high penetration scenario.

Different assumptions could have caused deviation from the actual result and it was found during the implementation of the simulation that the survey questions could be improved for future surveys. It was concluded that mass adoption of EVs is possible in terms of electricity production and installed power. However, increase in the evening peak led to the conclusion that balancing of the grid is necessary for example through Vehicle-to-grid (V2G), controlled charging or energy storage.

Keywords: MATLAB, electricity consumption, EV, CO2 emissions, simulation, 2030, Scenario, penetration level

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2015. , 39 p.
Keyword [en]
Electric vehicle, case study, sweden, electricity consumption, CO2 emissions, MATLAB
National Category
Engineering and Technology
URN: urn:nbn:se:mdh:diva-30956OAI: diva2:900979
Subject / course
Energy Engineering
Available from: 2016-03-18 Created: 2016-02-05 Last updated: 2016-03-18Bibliographically approved

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Rossbach, Katharina
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