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Modeling and visualizing uncertainties of flood boundary delineation: algorithm for slope and DEM resolution dependencies of 1D hydraulic models
University of Gävle, Faculty of Engineering and Sustainable Development, Department of Industrial Development, IT and Land Management. (Geospatial informationsvetenskap)ORCID iD: 0000-0002-3884-3084
2016 (English)In: Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment (Print), ISSN 1436-3240, E-ISSN 1436-3259, Vol. 30, no 6, 1677-1690 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

As flood inundation risk maps have become a central piece of information for both urban and risk management planning, also a need to assess the accuracies and uncertainties of these maps has emerged. Most maps show the inundation boundaries as crisp lines on visually appealing maps, whereby many planners and decision makers, among others, automatically believe the boundaries are both accurate and reliable. However, as this study shows, probably all such maps, even those that are based on high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs), have immanent uncertainties which can be directly related to both DEM resolution and the steepness of terrain slopes perpendicular to the river flow direction. Based on a number of degenerated DEMs, covering areas along the Eskilstuna River, Sweden, these uncertainties have been quantified into an empirically-derived disparity distance equation, yielding values of distance between true and modeled inundation boundary location. Using the inundation polygon, the DEM, a value representing the DEM resolution, and the desired level of confidence as inputs in a new-developed algorithm that utilizes the disparity distance equation, the slope and DEM dependent uncertainties can be directly visualized on a map. The implications of this strategy should benefit planning and help reduce high costs of floods where infrastructure, etc., have been placed in flood-prone areas without enough consideration of map uncertainties.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Springer, 2016. Vol. 30, no 6, 1677-1690 p.
Keyword [en]
1D hydraulic modeling, River flood inundation, Uncertainty, Quantile regression, Geographical information systems (GIS), Digital elevation model (DEM)
National Category
Oceanography, Hydrology, Water Resources Physical Geography Other Civil Engineering Climate Research Probability Theory and Statistics
URN: urn:nbn:se:hig:diva-20996DOI: 10.1007/s00477-016-1212-zISI: 000379753200009ScopusID: 2-s2.0-84954554055OAI: diva2:892758
GLOBES 2Kvalitetsbeskrivning av geografisk information vid översvämningskartering (Lantmäteriet)
Swedish Agency for Economic and Regional Growth, 170430

Även finansiering från EU via Lantmäteriet (Projekt 2)

Available from: 2016-01-11 Created: 2016-01-11 Last updated: 2016-08-16Bibliographically approved

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Brandt, Sven Anders
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Department of Industrial Development, IT and Land Management
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Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment (Print)
Oceanography, Hydrology, Water ResourcesPhysical GeographyOther Civil EngineeringClimate ResearchProbability Theory and Statistics

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