How to beat the Baltic market: An investigation of the P/E effect and the small firm effect on the Baltic stock market between the years 2000-2014
Independent thesis Advanced level (professional degree), 20 credits / 30 HE creditsStudent thesis
The question many investors ask is whether or not it is possible to beat the market andearn money by being active on the stock market. In efficient markets this should not be possible, but several researches have come up with strategies that prove the opposite. There are certain market movements that cannot be explained by the arguments of the traditional efficient market hypothesis and such market movements are in the standard finance theory called anomalies. Two well-known anomalies are the P/E effect and the small firm effect. The P/E effect means that portfolios with low P/E stocks attain higher average risk-adjusted returns than portfolios with high P/E stocks. Similarly, the small firm effect means that companies with small market capitalization earn higher return than those with large market capitalization. Even though these anomalies were discovered in the US, they occur on other markets as well. However, most of the studies regarding these have focused on developed markets. Therefore, the focus in this study has been on emerging markets, more specifically the Baltic market. The problem we aimed to answer with this study is whether or not it is possible to attain abnormal returns on the Baltic stock market by using the P/E effect or the small firm effect. Further on, we found it interesting to investigate which one of the two anomalies that is the best investment strategy. By doing this, we have also been able examine if the Baltic market is efficient or not. The study investigates all listed firms (both active and dead) with available data on Nasdaq OMX Baltic between the years 2000-2014. There are two different samples, a P/E sample and a market capitalization sample. The firms in the samples are ranked and grouped into portfolios and then tested to see if there is significant evidence of the existence of the P/E effect and the small firm effect. The results of the tests show that the Baltic market is not completely efficient, since statistical support was found for the small firm effect. This implies that it is possible to attain abnormal returns on the Baltic market by investing in small capitalization stocks. However, the tests showed no significant evidence of the P/E effect. For this reason, with the assumptions made, we recommend the small firm effect as an investment strategy on the Baltic stock market.
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Efficient market hypothesis, behavioral finance, CAPM, anomalies, P/E effect, small firm effect, abnormal return, significance test, regression analysis, emerging market, Baltic market
IdentifiersURN: urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-105680OAI: oai:DiVA.org:umu-105680DiVA: diva2:827514
Retail and Supply Chain Management Program
Olsson, Rickard, Universitetslektor