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Quantitative Assessment of Political Fragility Indices and Food Prices as Indicators of Food Riots in Countries
Anglia Ruskin University, UK.
Anglia Ruskin University, UK.
Linnaeus University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Social Studies.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-2837-0137
2015 (English)In: Sustainability, ISSN 2071-1050, Vol. 7, no 4, 4360-4385 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The impact of resources on social unrest is of increasing interest to politicalleaders, business and civil society. Recent events have highlighted that (lack of) access tocritical resources, including food, energy and water, can, in certain circumstances, lead toviolent demonstrations. In this paper, we assess a number of political fragility indices tosee whether they are good indicators of propensity to food riots. We found that the mostaccurate is the Political Instability and Absence of Violence Indicator of the WorldwideGovernance Indicators by the World Bank. We compute a likelihood of experiencing afood riot for each quartile of this index. We found that the self-sufficiency of food does notseem to affect the likelihood of the occurrence of food riots, but that the level of politicalstability of a country does have a role. In addition, we identify a monthly and annualthreshold for the Food and Agriculture Organisation Food Price Index, above which foodriots in fragile states are more likely to occur.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2015. Vol. 7, no 4, 4360-4385 p.
Keyword [en]
food riots, national fragility, food price threshold, state weakness, political fragility, resource conflict
National Category
Sociology (excluding Social Work, Social Psychology and Social Anthropology) Globalization Studies
Research subject
Social Sciences, Sociology; Social Sciences, Peace and Development Studies
URN: urn:nbn:se:lnu:diva-42871DOI: 10.3390/su7044360ISI: 000353715400046OAI: diva2:807600
Available from: 2015-04-24 Created: 2015-04-24 Last updated: 2015-09-04Bibliographically approved

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Bravo, Giangiacomo
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